Men's NCAA Tournament 2023: Power-Ranking All 68 Teams

Selection Sunday has finally arrived, and with it the 2023 NCAA men's basketball tournament field has been set.

After months of arguing about NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, KenPom.com ratings, quadrant-based records, strengths of schedule and the like, none of that junk matters anymore.

There will, of course, be a few more hours or days of complaining about who got left out or unfairly seeded, but too bad, so sad. We've got our field, and it's time to move on to the real fun: picking the brackets.

Based on a combination of player talent, current roster health, marquee wins, biggest weaknesses and a healthy dose of gut feeling/eye test, we have ranked all 68 NCAA tournament teams.

Generally speaking, if you're trying to decide which team to choose in a matchup, the higher-ranked team would be our suggestion. There are matchup-based exceptions to that rule of thumb, but the teams at the top of our list are the ones with the least troubling Achilles' heels. Thus, they are the ones most likely to reach the Final Four.

Before we dive in, a thank-you must be extended to Joel Reuter. B/R's MLB power rankings guru was a huge help and contributed to this piece amid spring training and World Baseball Classic chaos. He now knows more about the Cinderella candidates than 99 percent of the population. So if he tweets out a recommendation on a potential No. 15 over No. 2 upset, you might want to take it seriously.

Make your picks: Play the NCAA March Madness Men's Bracket Challenge and Tournament Run.

Record: 19-15 (10-6 in NEC)

Star Player: The undersized guard tandem of 5'8" Demetre Roberts (16.7 PPG, 4.3 APG) and 5'9" Grant Singleton (14.3 PPG, 3.3 APG) lead the Knights' offensive attack. They spent four years playing together at D-II Saint Thomas Aquinas under coach Tobin Anderson before following him to FDU after he took the job ahead of the 2022-23 season.

Biggest Wins: The Knights played just four games above the Quad 4 level all season, and their only victory was a 97-80 win over Saint Joseph's (NET: 200) in December. In fact, they didn't even win the NEC title game, losing by one point to a Merrimack squad that is ineligible for the NCAA tournament as it is still in the four-year transition period after moving up from the D-II level.

Reason to Worry: The total lack of exposure against quality teams is troubling, and the Knights were demolished by Pittsburgh (83-61) in their only game above the Quad 3 level. They also only have one player in the rotation who is taller than 6'7", so matching up against a team with any sort of size is going to be a major issue.

March Madness Ceiling: The Knights have never won an NCAA tournament game, and that trend will almost certainly continue.

Written by Joel Reuter

Record: 14-20 (7-11 in SWAC)

Star Player: Four Tigers average at least 10 points per game, but the one who always averages nine rebounds is Joirdon Karl Nicholas. He had a double-double in upsetting SWAC No. 1 seed Alcorn State in the quarterfinals, and he'll need to be large and in charge in order for Texas Southern to have any hope of pulling off a first-round miracle.

Biggest Wins: All season long, we railed on Arizona State for losing to Texas Southern. But, hey look, it's merely a road loss to a tournament team. Aside from that, though, the Tigers did not beat a single KenPom top 225 opponent prior to upsetting Grambling State in the SWAC title game.

Reason to Worry: They suffered 20 losses. Need we say more? If so, the offense is just plain bad, both in terms of putting the ball through the hoop and avoiding giving the ball to the other teams. And in 10 previous trips to the dance, the Tigers have never made it to the round of 32.

March Madness Ceiling: There have been some dangerous Texas Southern teams who went out and collected a dozen "buy game" checks during a loss-filled nonconference slate before running rampant through the SWAC season. But this is not one of those teams. The Tigers got hot when it mattered most, but this is barely a top 300 team on KenPom that should have no hope against a No. 1 seed.

Record: 19-16 (10-8 in OVC)

Star Player: Sophomore Phillip Russell earned first-team All-OVC honors by averaging 18.2 points and 5.0 assists. The 5'10" guard from St. Louis also led the team with 80 made threes at a solid 36.2 percent clip, and he scored 30 points three different times. That said, it's senior guard Chris Harris who has been shouldering the scoring load lately, averaging 22.4 points over his last seven games.

Biggest Wins: The Redhawks' only win over a NET Top 200 team came in their season opener back on Nov. 7 when they beat South Florida by three points on the road. They did play a good Missouri team tough in December, hanging around thanks to a 13-of-26 showing from beyond the arc before ultimately losing by seven points.

Reason to Worry: The Redhawks rank seventh in KenPom's adjusted tempo, and that fast-paced style helps them get up over 60 shots per game. The trouble is, they shoot just 43.6 percent from the floor, one of the worst team shooting percentages in the country.

March Madness Ceiling: Southeast Missouri State has been to the NCAA tournament just once back in 2000, and the Redhawks have never won a tournament game. Expect that trend to continue.

Written by Joel Reuter

Record: 22-12 (11-3 in MEAC)

Star Player: For a lot of teams, the choice here is a tough call. But not for Howard. It's the Elijah Hawkins show, as he leads the Bison in points, assists and steals, all by a wide margin. He was held to 10 points or fewer in each MEAC tournament game, though, so we'll see if he bounces back for the big tournament.

Biggest Wins: Howard had a three-game sweep of Norfolk State, including the MEAC title game. Obviously, the last win was the biggest one. The Bison also picked up a road win over Harvard. But against the KenPom top 150, they went 0-5, losing each of those games by double digits.

Reason to Worry: To put it lightly, it has been a tough decade for the MEAC. Since Norfolk State's historic win over Missouri in 2012, the league champion has been blown out six times in the first round and has lost three times in the First Four. And from a Howard-specific perspective, this is one of the most turnover-prone teams in the nation. It even posted a minus-10 turnover margin in the conference championship win over Norfolk State.

March Madness Ceiling: Even after winning 14 of its final 16 games, Howard is still ranked outside the top 200 on KenPom. Of course, UMBC was just barely in the top 200 when it pulled off the upset that will forever make us shrug and say "you never know." But if Howard makes it to the round of 32, it would be a colossal surprise.

Record: 23-10 (14-4 in Southland)

Star Player: Despite standing at just 6'5", 208 pounds, Isaac Mushila came just a few rebounds short of averaging a double-double for the second year in a row. After posting 13.2 points and 9.4 rebounds per contest as a junior, he upped his production to 14.4 points and 9.7 rebounds this season to earn All-Southland honors. He had 12 double-doubles on the year.

Biggest Wins: The Islanders played some tough teams with road games against Arizona, Mississippi State and Oklahoma State, but they lost those three games by a combined 80 points and had just one win above the Quad 4 level all season. They did go 3-0 against Southland regular-season runner-up Northwestern State, including a 75-71 victory in the conference tournament title game to punch their ticket to the NCAA tournament for a second straight season.

Reason to Worry: The track record against quality teams is lackluster, to say the least, with that 80-point margin of deficit, and this is undoubtedly one of the worst defensive teams in the tournament field. The Islanders check in at No. 229 in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency and allowed more than 80 points five times against middling Southland opponents. That could mean 100-plus against a major conference foe.

March Madness Ceiling: The Islanders failed to make it out of the First Four game last season, and an early exit likely awaits once again in 2023.

Written by Joel Reuter

Record: 22-12 (14-6 in Horizon)

Star Player: Guard Marques Warrick ranked fourth in the Horizon League with 19.1 points per game, and he made 86 threes while shooting 39.1 percent from beyond the arc. The 6'2" junior tallied at least five three-pointers nine different times, and he poured in a season-high 45 points against Tennessee Tech back in November. The Norse are 13-2 on the year when he scores at least 20 points.

Biggest Wins: The Norse beat a 20-win Cincinnati team in November, limiting the Bearcats to 33.9 percent shooting en route to a 64-51 victory. They beat No. 1 seed Youngstown State by 12 points in the Horizon League tournament semifinals and then squeaked out a two-point win over Cleveland State in the title game to earn a spot in the NCAA tournament field for the third time in the last seven years.

Reason to Worry: The Norse rank No. 358 in KenPom's adjusted tempo, but grinding the game to a halt might not be possible against a more athletic high-level opponent that wants to push the pace. They also rank outside the top 250 nationally in field-goal percentage, which could make climbing back into the game extremely difficult if they fall behind early.

March Madness Ceiling: This team is capable of driving an opponent nuts with its slow pace of play, but the Norse lack the offensive firepower and efficiency to be a serious upset threat.

Written by Joel Reuter

Record: 27-7 (16-2 in Big South)

Star Player: Drew Pember is one of the best mid-major players in the country. A 3-star recruit who started his college career at Tennessee, the 6'10" forward averaged 21.2 points, 9.4 rebounds and 2.3 blocks on his way to Big South Player of the Year honors. He scored 40 points in a win over UCF earlier this year, and he also has a 48-point performance on his stat sheet.

Biggest Wins: The aforementioned road victory over UCF in the season opener on Nov. 7 is a Quad 1 win, and that Knights team played well early in the season with a 13-4 record before fading during conference play. That's the only quality win on the Bulldogs' resume, but they are rolling heading into the tournament with an 18-1 record in their last 19 games.

Reason to Worry: The Bulldogs were smoked by Arkansas (85-51) and Dayton (79-56) in their only other games above the Quad 3 level, which raises some obvious questions about their ability to hang with a tournament-caliber team.

March Madness Ceiling: Even if Pember puts up his third 40-point game of the season, that still might not be enough for the Bulldogs to survive their opening game.

Written by Joel Reuter

Record: 23-10 (14-2 in America East)

Star Player: You don't often see a player who leads his team in both rebounds and assists by a wide margin, but Vermont has one of those stars in Robin Duncan. He's not much of a scorer, but the 6'5" point forward has his fingerprints on everything this team does.

Biggest Wins: Vermont faced a handful of quality teams in nonconference play, and did come within two points of a road win over USC. But aside from maybe the one-point win at Colgate, no wins worth mentioning. The biggest win was pulling away from UMass Lowell in the America East championship game

Reason to Worry: It didn't slow them down at all in America East play, but this is an undersized team that could get pushed around by a bigger, stronger foe. Vermont also has not been an impactful team on defense, save for doing a great job on the glass. But, again, we question whether that holds up against "real" competition. Case in point: Saint Mary's grabbed 41.4 percent of possible offensive rebounds against the Catamounts in November.

March Madness Ceiling: Vermont making the tournament and having some Cinderella potential is almost a rite of passage at this point, earning a No. 13 seed in each of 2017, 2019 and 2022. But this year's team is nowhere near as good as those previous iterations. They're much closer to the 2010 and 2012 versions that got No. 16 seeds. And, either way, the 'Mounts haven't won a first-round game since 2005 when T.J. Sorrentine hit that famous shot "from the parking lot."

Record: 25-9 (15-3 in Big Sky)

Star Player: RaeQuan Battle is a former 4-star prospect and top-100 recruit who began his collegiate career at the University of Washington before transferring to Montana State prior to the 2021-22 season. The 6'5" forward has taken his game to another level this year, leading the team with 17.4 points per game. He won Big Sky tournament MVP honors and tallied 25 points on 8-of-14 shooting in the title game against Northern Arizona.

Biggest Wins: The biggest win of the year was the 85-78 victory over Northern Arizona on Wednesday that sent the Bobcats to the NCAA tournament for the second year in a row. That came after they survived double overtime against Weber State in the semifinals, and they roll into March Madness riding an eight-game winning streak.

Reason to Worry: Blowout losses to Arizona (85-64) and Oregon (81-51) are likely a good gauge of how this team stacks up to high-level opponents, and that doesn't bode well for their NCAA tournament upside. They lack the offensive firepower to claw back into a game if they fall behind early, and their defense struggled mightily when tested during their nonconference slate.

March Madness Ceiling: The Bobcats lost by 35 points in the First Round against Texas Tech as a No. 14 seed last season, and if those games against Arizona and Oregon are any indication, a similar fate awaits this year.

Written by Joel Reuter

Record: 26-8 (15-3 in ASUN)

Star Player: Guard Chris Youngblood leads the Owls in scoring (14.7 PPG), and he is a lethal shooter from the outside with 79 made threes and a 41.1 percent rate from beyond the arc. The 6'4" junior is one of three players on the team who averages in double figures, though the X-factor here might be guard Brandon Stroud, who won ASUN Defensive Player of the Year and will be tasked with guarding the other team's star.

Biggest Wins: The Owls beat a very good Liberty team twice, including a 67-66 victory in the ASUN title game to punch their ticket to the NCAA tournament for the first time. It has been an impressive turnaround for a team that finished 1-28 during the 2019-20 season when Amir Abdur-Rahim was in his first year as head coach. The team went 0-4 in Quad 1 matchups but gained some valuable early experience.

Reason to Worry: The Owls have three losses against teams ranked outside the NET Top 200, and they dropped their four games against Quad 1 opponents by a combined 61 points. That's not great. They defend the three-point shot well (33.4 percent), which was the key to their success against Liberty, but they don't have the size to match up with a more physical opponent.

March Madness Ceiling: This team has come a long way in four years, but the Owls still face a major uphill battle in their first trip to March Madness.

Written by Joel Reuter

Record: 27-7 (15-5 in Big West)

Star Player: Ajay Mitchell is a big-time talent on a Big West roster. The sophomore point guard averages better than 16 points and five assists per game while also leading the Gauchos in steals. He went for 20, 24 and 28 points in the Big West tournament and could be gearing up for a special March performance.

Biggest Wins: UCSB got to avoid the conference's No. 1 seed, UC Irvine, in the tournament, but it did win a road game against the Anteaters in January. Aside from that and the championship victory over Cal St. Fullerton, the neutral-site win over Fresno State was as good as it got.

Reason to Worry: The Gauchos routinely get gouged on defense, including twice allowing an opponent to score at least 86 points in regulation this month. And not only did they not beat anyone worth mentioning, they also didn't even face a tournament-caliber foe. UCSB did make the dance two years ago and came oh so close to upsetting Creighton, but this team could be in for a bit of a rude awakening.

March Madness Ceiling: Listen, I'm not saying Mitchell is the next CJ McCollum or Max Abmas. However, he is the exact type of "take a game over" guard we have seen orchestrate a massive upset in the past, and he has been sizzling as of late. If he and big man Miles Norris get into a groove, stranger things have certainly happened.

Record: 26-7 (13-5 in Sun Belt)

Star Player: Forward Jordan Brown was a 5-star recruit and the No. 16 overall player in the 2018 recruiting class as a California prep standout. He started his college career at Nevada and then played a season at Arizona before transferring again to Louisiana for the 2021-22 season. The 6'11" post player is averaging 19.4 points and 8.7 rebounds while shooting 57.0 percent from the floor.

Biggest Wins: The biggest win of the season for the Ragin' Cajuns was undoubtedly the 71-66 victory over South Alabama in the Sun Belt title game that punched their ticket to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2014. They went 3-0 against the Jaguars on the year, with the regular-season road win against them their only victory above the Quad 3 level.

Reason to Worry: Brown is a terrific player, but he has gotten himself into foul trouble on multiple occasions and fouled out of five games. The Ragin' Cajuns lost two of the three games when he scored under 10 points, and if an opposing defense can take him out of the game, it would be a major blow offensively. This is also not a particularly good defensive team.

March Madness Ceiling: Never say never, but this team has had very little exposure to tournament-caliber opponents and could be overwhelmed in its opener.

Written by Joel Reuter

Record: 26-8 (17-1 in Patriot)

Star Player: Oliver Lynch-Daniels has knocked down an absurd 77-of-153 attempts from distance this year, and the Raiders lead the nation with a 40.3 percent shooting clip from beyond the arc. That said, it's senior guard Tucker Richardson who makes the offense go, averaging 13.9 points, 5.8 assists and 5.2 rebounds per game. The Patriot League Player of the Year had a 14-point, 12-rebound, 11-assist triple-double in the conference tournament title game against Lafayette.

Biggest Wins: In the NCAA tournament field for the fourth time in five years, the Raiders are still looking for their first March Madness win, though they lost by just single digits in 2019 and 2022. Their best win this season was an 80-68 victory on the road against Syracuse back in November when Richardson poured in a career-high 30 points on 10-of-16 shooting.

Reason to Worry: Outside of a 93-66 loss to Auburn in December, the Raiders have not played anything resembling a tournament-caliber opponent all season, so their eye-popping perimeter numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt. They will only go as far as their outside shooting carries them with a defense that ranks No. 232 in KenPom's defensive efficiency.

March Madness Ceiling: The Raiders lost by seven points to No. 3 seed Wisconsin and future NBA lottery pick Johnny Davis in the First Round last year, and this team is cut from a similar mold, so never say never on an upset if the threes are falling.

Written by Joel Reuter

Record: 27-7 (15-3 in SoCon)

Star Player: The fifth-year senior duo of Jalen Slawson and Mike Bothwell (18.0 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 3.0 APG) both earned first-team All-Southern Conference honors, with Slawson taking home Player of the Year in the conference for a stat-sheet stuffing season. He finished in the top 10 in the conference in points (15.7 PPG, fifth), rebounding (7.1 RPG, fifth), assists (3.2 APG, seventh), steals (1.6 SPG, fifth) and blocks (1.6 BPG, second).

Biggest Wins: The Paladins went 14-1 in their last 15 games, squeezing out an overtime win against Western Carolina in the conference tournament semifinals before knocking off Chattanooga in the title game to clinch their first NCAA tournament appearance since 1980. They did not have any wins against a Top 100 NET team, and their only victory above the Quad 3 line was a road win against UNC Greensboro.

Reason to Worry: Ranking 11th in the nation in three-point attempts per game (27.5) and 157th in three-point percentage (34.7 percent) feels like a recipe for disaster. The Paladins lead the nation with a 60.1 percent shooting clip on two-point attempts, but if they fall behind early, they'll have to hope the three ball is falling. They also rank a dismal No. 184 in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency.

March Madness Ceiling: Furman succeeded on the strength of an offense that averaged 82.1 points per game, but those buckets are not going to come as easy against higher-level competition. The team's defensive shortcomings could mean an early deficit and a quick exit.

Written by Joel Reuter

Record: 21-8 (10-4 in Ivy League)

Star Player: Tosan Evbuomwan has yet to record a triple-double in his college career, but wouldn't it be something if he finally pulled it off in the NCAA tournament? He entered the Ivy League tournament averaging 14.5 points, 6.2 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game for the year, and he put up lines of 21-6-4 against Penn and 21-5-4 in the championship against Yale.

Biggest Wins: Prior to beating Yale on Sunday, Princeton was 0-4 against the KenPom top 100, including getting swept by the Bulldogs during the regular season. But if you're going to have just one big win all season, pretty smart of these Ivy Leaguers to save it for the most important game. The Tigers did put up good fights in close losses to Iona and Hofstra.

Reason to Worry: Princeton doesn't have any glaring weaknesses, but nothing's really a strength, either. The Tigers are in the 100-150 range in both offensive and defensive efficiency, which puts them in Duquesne/Charlotte territory. And against a top-tier opponent, that doesn't bode well.

March Madness Ceiling: With all due respect to Princeton and one of the neatest names in the tournament (Zach Martini), it's hard to see this team winning a game. Yale was much more likely to pull off a first-round upset. But maybe the Tigers can pull off a stunner for their first tournament victory since 1998.

Record: 22-11 (14-6 in ACC)

Star Player: Blake Hinson missed the entire 2020-21 with an undisclosed medical condition and then left Iowa State just before the start of 2021-22, missing that entire campaign as well. But he has been so critical for Pittsburgh, having led the team in both points and rebounds. And he set the tone early with a 27-point, 13-rebound performance in his season debut after a 32-month gap between games played.

Biggest Wins: Who would've ever thought we'd live to see the day when a season sweep of North Carolina was just an OK accomplishment? Pittsburgh did that and got road wins over Northwestern and NC State, and solid home wins over Virginia and Miami. Their metrics were mighty questionable from a bracketology perspective, but there's no denying the Panthers had a good number of solid victories.

Reason to Worry: The defense is bad and getting worse. Pitt had a top-75 defense on KenPom in mid-February, but then it was gashed repeatedly, mostly by bottom-half-of-the-ACC teams. And though the offense is pretty potent, it has been a significant challenge to overcome those shortcomings on the defensive end.

March Madness Ceiling: Just being in the tournament should feel like a miracle for Pittsburgh after six consecutive losing seasons and an offseason spent wondering if Jeff Capel can do enough this year to save his job. But now that the Panthers are here, why not go out and win a game or two? The strong offense, mediocre defense combo is something to avoid when picking your Final Four, but they absolutely could get hot and pull off an upset.

Record: 27-7 (17-3 in MAAC)

Star Player: Three Gaels average better than 15 points per game: Walter Clayton Jr., Daniss Jenkins and Nelly Junior Joseph. Clayton and Jenkins do a little bit of everything, but NJJ is the star leading the team in rebounds and blocks. He had 11 and four, respectively, in the MAAC championship against Marist, while Clayton and Jenkins racked up 44 points. Scary good trio.

Biggest Wins: Rick Pitino put together a solid nonconference schedule for Iona, resulting in wins over Saint Louis, Vermont, Princeton, Penn and Seattle. Nothing noteworthy there, but it's better than anything they faced in the MAAC for the past two months.

Reason to Worry: Is the defense actually better than when it allowed 82-plus points in nonconference losses to Hofstra, Santa Clara, New Mexico and SMU, or does it just look like the Gaels improved while running rampant through the MAAC? Probably a little of A and a little of B, but it's fair to worry how they'll hold up on that end when facing a KenPom top-50 team for the first time all season.

March Madness Ceiling: Since winning a game under Jim Valvano back in 1980, Iona has gone 0-13 in the NCAA tournament. And yet, every time they get in, we end up talking ourselves into the Gaels as a sleeper team. Is this finally the year they get the big upset, or is this going to be yet another case of the boy who cried "Cinderella"? All I know is I'm not betting against Pitino.

Record: 22-12 (11-9 in Pac-12)

Star Player: Sixth-year senior Desmond Cambridge Jr. isn't the most efficient scorer in the world (or even in Arizona State's backcourt), but he leads the Sun Devils in both points and steals. In each of the seven biggest wins noted below, he scored in double figures.

Biggest Wins: Hands down, the best win was the Feb. 25 game at Arizona that ended on a Cambridge 60-foot heave at the buzzer. If that miracle shot doesn't fall, ASU isn't even in the tournament. The Sun Devils also picked up a great neutral-site wins over Creighton, albeit during the oft-cited three-game stretch in which the Bluejays were without big man Ryan Kalkbrenner. Beyond that, there were also wins away from home over Oregon, Colorado, Michigan, USC and VCU.

Reason to Worry: Take your pick, really. The offense ranks well outside the top 100 in KenPom's adjusted efficiency, with an effective field-goal percentage hovering around 300th in the nation. Rebounding has also been a significant issue. And, again, we wouldn't even be talking about this team if an improbable prayer hadn't been answered in Tucson.

March Madness Ceiling: Arizona State has not made it to the second round of the NCAA tournament since 2009, and that drought is unlikely to end this year. The Sun Devils make enough momentum-shifting plays on defense (blocks and steals) to potentially pull off a first-round upset, but an offense that was held to 70 points or fewer in 12 of the final 13 games of the regular season is quite unlikely to sniff the second weekend of the tournament.

Record: 24-11 (11-7 in WAC)

Star Player: After putting up big numbers at Presbyterian, Ray Harrison transferred out to the desert and continued to thrive for Grand Canyon, averaging better than 17 points per game for a third consecutive season. And he went off in the WAC title game against Southern Utah, finishing with 31 points, eight rebounds and eight assists.

Biggest Wins: GCU did have a win over a tournament team, but not an at-large tournament team. The Antelopes won a home game against Montana State to open the season. The more impressive wins were the overtime victory at Sam Houston State and the subsequent win over SHSU in the WAC semifinals. The Bearkats were a serious threat to do some damage as a No. 12 or No. 13 seed, but Grand Canyon kept that from happening.

Reason to Worry: When GCU got in two years ago, it had a stout defense and promptly allowed 86 points in a loss to Iowa. This year, the defense is...what's the opposite of stout? Pilsner? Whatever it is, it's not good. The Lopes just barely climbed into the top 200 in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom after winning the WAC tournament.

March Madness Ceiling: This will be Bryce Drew's fifth trip to the NCAA tournament as a coach, but he had more tournament wins as a player (two) than he does on the sideline (zero). Maybe that changes. Goodness knows Harrison could go wild again and lead one of the bigger upsets ever seen. But even if he scores 30, it may come in a game where the defense allows 90. A one-game stay seems likely.

Record: 31-3 (16-2 in CAA)

Star Player: Dalton Bolon was a three-time All-American at D-II West Liberty before joining Charleston as a grad transfer for the 2021-22 season, but he played in just three games last year before suffering a significant eye injury. The 24-year-old received a medical hardship waiver and has returned to average 12.3 points and 4.2 rebounds en route to first-team All-CAA honors.

Biggest Wins: The Cougars have a pair of Quad 2 victories against Kent State and Towson, but they have mostly been steamrolling lesser competition for most of the year. They enter the NCAA tournament riding a 10-game winning streak, and they also rattled off a 20-game winning streak earlier this year before suffering back-to-back losses at the end of January and beginning of February.

Reason to Worry: The only real test the Cougars faced this year was against North Carolina in their second game of the season, and they lost 102-86 despite shooting nearly 50 percent from the floor while out-rebounding the Tar Heels. They threw their best punch at a quality opponent and still lost by double digits. The combination of ranking second in the nation in three-point attempts per game (30.2) and 226th in three-point percentage (33.4 percent) is alarming, though they are a solid offensive rebounding team.

March Madness Ceiling: With a well-rounded team that ranks in the top 100 in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency, this is one of the better mid-major teams in the country. If the threes are falling, the Cougars are more than capable of pulling off an upset or two.

Written by Joel Reuter

Record: 27-7 (15-3 in A-10)

Star Player: Where would the Rams be without Ace Baldwin? Between this season and last, the point guard has averaged 12.0 points, 5.7 assists and 2.4 steals per game. In the early February win over Saint Louis, he put up 37 points. Two weeks later against Fordham, he had 10 assists and six steals.

Biggest Wins: Who could have guessed that the November wins over Pittsburgh, Kennesaw State and Vanderbilt would age as well as they did? VCU also had three wins over both Saint Louis and Davidson and a pair of wins away from home against Dayton. Nothing great on there, but a solid list.

Reason to Worry: VCU's combination of drawing fouls and forcing turnovers is second to none. But when an opponent is able to minimize the fouls and/or turnovers that it commits, there's not much else to worry about. The offense is mediocre, at best, and this is not a good rebounding team.

March Madness Ceiling: A one-bid Atlantic 10 just feels...wrong. But at least the league is putting its best foot forward by getting VCU into the Dance. The Rams have gone just 3-8 overall in the Dance since that magical "First Four to Final Four" run back in 2011, but that turnover-forcing defense is a permanent threat to do some damage. There's pretty much always at least one double-digit seed in the Sweet 16, and this could be that team.

Record: 27-7 (15-5 in MVC)

Star Player: Sophomore Tucker DeVries turned down offers from Air Force, Creighton, Florida, Iowa State and South Dakota State as a 4-star recruit to play for his dad at Drake. The MIssouri Valley Conference Player of the Year averaged 19.0 points and 5.6 rebounds while shooting 38.7 percent from beyond the arc, and he had 22 points on 8-of-14 shooting against Bradley in the MVC title game.

Biggest Wins: The Bulldogs beat a Mississippi State team that was 11-0 and ranked No. 15 in the AP poll at the time back on Dec. 20, holding the SEC opponent to just 52 points on 38.5 percent shooting while forcing 17 turnovers. They were also 3-3 in Quad 2 games, going 2-1 on the year against a good Bradley squad, including a 77-51 blowout to clinch the automatic bid.

Reason to Worry: Drake plays a slow-tempo style and suffered five of its seven losses in games where it allowed 65 or more points. If the Bulldogs can't control the pace of the game and slow down the opposition, they could have a hard time keeping up with a more athletic opponent.

March Madness Ceiling: The Bulldogs are capable of pulling off an upset if a defense that ranks No. 43 in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency comes to play and successfully grinds the opposition to a halt.

Written by Joel Reuter

Record: 22-10 (12-6 in MWC)

Star Player: Nevada has employed a one-two-three punch of point guard Kenan Blackshear, shooting guard Jarod Lucas and stretch 5 Will Baker, with that trio combining for about 45 points per game. It all runs through Blackshear, though. He's not much of a shooter, but he's a great distributor and defender who (along with Lucas) thrives at drawing contact for free points.

Biggest Wins: Nevada almost went undefeated at home, winning games against each of San Diego State, Boise State, Utah State and Sam Houston State. The Wolf Pack also swept New Mexico and twice blew out a much-better-than-usual San Jose State squad. Just an absurd turnaround after having three starters from a 13-18 team depart via the transfer portal.

Reason to Worry: Nevada didn't exactly surge to the finish line, suffering its two worst losses of the year (at Wyoming; vs. UNLV) in the final two games of the regular season. Moreover, this team has perfectly average two-point and three-point percentages and ranks among the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country. If the Wolf Pack get an officiating crew that doesn't call a lot of fouls, they're in trouble.

March Madness Ceiling: This is the fifth program that Steve Alford has taken to the NCAA tournament, but in 11 previous trips, he has never been to an Elite Eight. Nor has Nevada made a regional final in nine NCAA tournament appearances. And it's quite difficult to envision this team breaking those droughts. But leaning on a solid defense and that trio of scorers to pull off at least one win? That's feasible.

Record: 30-4 (18-0 in Summit)

Star Player: Max Abmas led the nation in scoring with 24.5 points per game when he helped lead No. 15-seeded Oral Roberts to the Sweet 16 in 2021. Now he's a senior and tallying 22.2 points and 4.0 assists while shooting 37.7 percent from beyond the arc. He will be the focal point, but 7'5" Connor Vanover could be the X-factor. The Arkansas transfer averages 12.9 points, 7.2 rebounds and 3.3 blocks while stretching the defense with his ability to knock down threes.

Biggest Wins: The Golden Eagles went 0-4 in Quad 1 games, but they at least hung around with Saint Mary's (78-70), Utah State (95-85) and New Mexico (82-75). Three of those losses came before the calendar flipped to December, so this team has known nothing but winning for quite a while and enters the tournament riding a 17-game winning streak.

Reason to Worry: The Houston Cougars provided the blueprint for beating this team, limiting Abmas to a dismal 1-of-13 shooting and just three points in an 83-45 blowout. The Golden Eagles went 8-of-38 from beyond the arc in that game, and any team capable of playing quality perimeter defense is going to be a major problem for an offense that leans heavily on the three ball.

March Madness Ceiling: Familiarity is going to make Oral Roberts a popular upset pick, and this might actually be a better all-around team than the one that shocked the world two years ago. Another Sweet 16 appearance is not out of the realm of possibility, depending on how the matchups fall.

Written by Joel Reuter

Record: 21-12 (8-10 in SEC)

Star Player: As we'll get into momentarily, offense isn't Mississippi State's specialty. But the Bulldogs do have one reliable source of points in big man Tolu Smith. He scores better than 15 points per game and also leads the team in rebounds and blocks. Smith had 27 points, 13 rebounds, five assists and four blocks against TCU in late January.

Biggest Wins: The Bulldogs got a pair of great nonconference wins, beating Marquette on a neutral court and TCU at home. And though they finished below .500 in SEC play, they did win at Arkansas and were one of the few teams to beat Texas A&M.

Reason to Worry: We joke all the time about color commentators saying "you don't need a three here" in situations where the team very clearly does need a three here. But here's hoping Mississippi State never does need a three, because it is the worst three-point shooting team in the nation. The Bulldogs are also dreadful at the charity stripe and commit turnovers at a rate higher than the national average. It's astounding that this team has been held below 63 points just eight times.

March Madness Ceiling: Defense wins championships, and this is a very strong defense. But, like, some offense is necessary. In the past four tournaments, there have been four teams that entered the tournament top-10 in KenPom on defense but outside the top 100 on offense: 2019 Kansas State, 2019 VCU, 2021 Utah State, 2022 San Diego State and 2022 Iowa State. Of the five, the only one to win a game was Iowa State, which pulled off back-to-back upsets without cracking 60 in either game. Maybe Mississippi State can repeat that, but it's unlikely.

Record: 21-11 (13-7 in Big East)

Star Player: Bryce Hopkins was barely able to get on the court last year at Kentucky. Well, maybe the Wildcats wouldn't have lost to Saint Peter's if they had ever turned this star loose, because he has been incredible with the Friars. Hopkins is leading the team in both scoring and rebounding, racking up 10 double-doubles on the year.

Biggest Wins: The Friars had great victories over Connecticut, Marquette and Creighton in the arena formerly known as The Dunk. Can they win away from home, though? Narrow road victories over Seton Hall and Villanova is as good as it gets outside of Providence. And this team's best nonconference win was either the home game against Rider or the road game against Rhode Island, neither of which was anything close to impressive.

Reason to Worry: When Providence decides not to play defense, it really decides not to play defense. And that was a major problem late in the regular season. Between the losses to UConn, Xavier and Seton Hall, the Friars allowed 263 points in just 194 possessions, for a ghastly rate of 1.36 points per possession. Hard to win games like that.

March Madness Ceiling: The defense is legitimately concerning, but there's a lot to like about this team. The Friars are tough as nails with a lot of veteran experience. They almost always out-rebound their competition, and they also almost always attempt more free throws than they allow. And while Hopkins has been the star most often, all five starters are capable of taking over a game. Final Four is probably a stretch, but Sweet 16 is well within the realm of possibility.

Record: 19-13 (11-9 in Big Ten)

Star Player: Though neither quite as statistically dominant nor anywhere near as impactful on defense as his brother, Keegan, was last season, Kris Murray had a colossal breakout year for the Hawkeyes. His 31-point, 20-rebound performance against Georgia Tech was legendary, and just one of 15 times that he scored at least 20 points in a game.

Biggest Wins: The season sweep of Indiana was mighty impressive, particularly winning the road game by a 22-point margin. The Hawkeyes also smashed Iowa State by 19 on a night when Murray wasn't even available. And Iowa swept Rutgers in January, back when the Scarlet Knights were at full strength and that registered as a great pair of 11-point victories.

Reason to Worry: If you've followed Iowa at all in the past seven seasons, you know the drill: proficient offense; apathetic defense. And this year, the defense has been particularly dreadful. The Hawkeyes at least had a respectable shot-blocking presence in previous years, but that's no longer the case. As a result, for the first time in over a decade, their effective field-goal percentage allowed on defense is worse than what they shoot on offense.

March Madness Ceiling: This is Iowa's 10th trip to the NCAA tournament since 2000, yet its last Sweet 16 appearance was in 1999. For whatever reason, Iowa's general approach to hoops works pretty well during the regular season, but not playing defense is a fantastic strategy for getting bounced in the first weekend of the tournament. Per usual, maybe the Hawkeyes win a game, but not two.

Record: 20-12 (10-8 in SEC)

Star Player: Johni Broome is no Walker Kessler or Jabari Smith Jr., but he at least has kept Auburn from missing those 2022 first-round picks too dearly. The transfer from Morehead State has been a force in the paint on both ends of the floor, but it's his impact on defense where he's most crucial with around 2.5 blocks and 1.0 steal per game. Jaylin Williams has also reemerged in a big way after taking a back seat to Smith and Kessler last season.

Biggest Wins: The Tigers got a huge one in the regular-season finale at home against Zakai Zeigler-less Tennessee. They also had solid home victories over Arkansas, Mississippi State and Missouri, and survived what turned out to be a highly valuable 43-42 rock fight against Northwestern in Mexico.

Reason to Worry: There's an awful lot of red on Auburn's KenPom profile page. Shooting percentages and steal rate on offense; rebounding and foul rate on defense. There's just a bunch of different areas where things are liable to go haywire. And though Auburn did end the regular season with a huge win, it still lost nine of its final 13 games.

March Madness Ceiling: Simply put, this is an above-average-but-not-great team. Solid metrics and a good ratio of quality wins to bad losses mandated that the Tigers make the dance; however, this feels like a classic "potentially wins one game but doesn't reach the second weekend" type of squad.

Record: 20-12 (11-9 in Big Ten)

Star Player: While we are more than willing to listen to arguments for the lone non-senior in Maryland's starting lineup (Julian Reese), Charlotte transfer Jahmir Young has been everything for the Terrapins. He's leading the squad in points, assists and steals, and the 6'2" guard even mixes it up on the glass for nearly five rebounds per game. He needs to be in his bag if Maryland is going to go on any sort of run.

Biggest Wins: Maryland went 10-0 at home in Big Ten play, including a 14-point win over Purdue, an 11-point victory over Indiana and a 16-point drubbing of Northwestern. The Terps also smoked Miami by 18 on a neutral floor.

Reason to Worry: The Terr-apins are terr-ible away from home. They did have an emphatic pair of victories over Miami and Saint Louis on a neutral floor in November, but their only other road/neutral victories were at Minnesota and at Louisville, both of whom were just plain terrible this season. And last time we checked, the NCAA tournament is not being held in the Xfinity Center.

March Madness Ceiling: The home/road thing is legitimately problematic, and blowing an early 16-point lead at Penn State in the regular-season finale sure felt like one final "stay away" reminder. Maryland has solid metrics and certainly deserved to be in the field, but the season-long shooting woes away from home leave this team ripe for an immediate exit.

Record: 28-6 (15-3 in MAC)

Star Player: Heading into the MAC championship victory over Toledo, the backcourt tandem of Sincere Carry and Malique Jacobs was averaging 30.0 points, 8.7 rebounds, 8.5 assists and 4.5 steals per game. And in said title game, they went off for 44 points, 16 rebounds, 10 assists, three blocks and a steal. Jacobs is usually the star on defense, while Carry leads the offense, but they're both electric on both ends of the floor.

Biggest Wins: Kent State won both its games against Toledo, and that's about it. But the Golden Flashes had some seriously large "almost wins" at Houston and Gonzaga, losing by five and by seven, respectively. And since those close calls, they've gone 22-3 overall.

Reason to Worry: As great as that backcourt duo can be, this offense is a wee bit lacking as a whole. And there's not a player on the roster listed at bigger than 6'9". That wasn't much of a problem in the MAC, but you always need to worry a little bit when one of the most undersized teams gets into the dance. (Though, Kent State can certainly make up for its height with forced turnovers.)

March Madness Ceiling: All of the No. 12 and No. 13 seeds are good enough to pull off upsets this year. But if you're looking for a deep sleeper to make an Elite Eight run, look no further. I came up with a "Cinderella" formula a few years back, which more or less boiled down to a veteran, defensive-minded team with a great backcourt duo that challenged itself with a few top-notch foes in nonconference play, and Kent State checks all of those boxes.

Record: 23-10 (12-8 in ACC)

Star Player: Terquavion Smith is a special talent and the rare breed of NBA-bound, ball-dominant lead guard who you kind of wish would be even more assertive than he is. He almost always scores in double figures and did have a trio of 30 burgers, but there's some "Kemba Walker potential" waiting to be unleashed.

Biggest Wins: Don't blink or you'll miss it: NC State had home wins over Duke and Miami, and that's about it. The Wolfpack did have a bunch of "strong resume wins" against teams in the 40-100 range of the NET, but it was not easy to make the at-large case for NC State over the last few weeks because of the lack of great wins.

Reason to Worry: Aside from rarely committing turnovers, NC State doesn't do anything particularly well. This team has talent, but does it have an identity? It also did not finish the year on a strong note, losing four of its final seven regular-season games, including getting shellacked by 25 at home by Clemson.

March Madness Ceiling: NC State didn't have any marquee wins, but it does have dudes. Smith is going to be a first-round pick in a few months. For the college game, Jarkel Joiner is an even better, more experienced guard. Casey Morsell is a great shooter and glue guy. And DJ Burns Jr. is an absolute tank in the paint. The Wolfpack almost won at Duke, should have won at Miami and gave Kansas one heck of a battle in the Battle 4 Atlantis. This could be 2023's surprise Elite Eight crasher.

Record: 24-9 (11-7 in SEC)

Star Player: With an honorable mention to D'Moi Hodge as the No. 2 scorer and the primary ball-hawker in this turnover-forcing defense, got to go with Kobe Brown here. The big man was either a complete non-factor or did not play in Missouri's three ugliest losses of the year, but the Tigers can hang with anyone when he shows up.

Biggest Wins: Beating Illinois by 22 in Kansas City in late December and then beating Kentucky by 14 less than a week later was when Missouri started to feel like a potential contender. The Tigers subsequently beat Arkansas, Iowa State and Mississippi State at home, got that huge one-point win at Tennessee and beat the Vols again in the SEC quarters.

Reason to Worry: When Missouri decides not to show up, goodness gracious does it ever not show up. The Tigers lost by 33 at Auburn, by 18 at Texas A&M, by 28 to Kansas and by 21 to Alabama, the latter two games coming at home. And it's because when this defense isn't forcing turnovers and getting fast-break buckets, there really isn't a Plan B.

March Madness Ceiling: The NCAA tournament is all about matchups, but there might not be a more draw-based ceiling than that of Missouri. Against a series of sloppy point guards and/or opponents that aren't anything special on the glass, the Tigers could go on a deep run. They also might lose by two dozen in the first round if they're unable to get defensive stops and runouts. Wild card! Yee-haw!

Record: 24-9 (13-5 in MWC)

Star Player: In the biggest wins listed below, Max Rice was out of control, scoring at least 25 points in four of those five contests. But Boise State losing by 15 at Santa Clara and by 20 at San Diego State in games played without Marcus Shaver Jr. is proof that he is the Broncos' MVP. He's not shooting well this season, but he's leading the team in rebounds, assists and steals per game.

Biggest Wins: It didn't feel all that noteworthy at the time, but the 15-point win over Texas A&M in Fort Worth in early December aged like a fine wine, playing a considerable role in the Broncos getting into the dance. Boise State also went undefeated at home in Mountain West play, resulting in solid wins over San Diego State, Utah State, Nevada and New Mexico.

Reason to Worry: Boise State's average height looks fine on paper, but having a bunch of 6'7" guys isn't the same as having a legitimate post presence. The Broncos only routinely play one guy (reserve Lukas Milner) taller than 6'7", and it showed in their final three regular-season losses. San Jose State grabbed 16 offensive rebounds in upsetting them. And San Diego State and Utah State shot a combined 47-of-69 (68.1 percent) from inside the arc.

March Madness Ceiling: When Rice is hot, when Tyson Degenhart is playing well and when Shaver doesn't need to call his own number often, Boise State has Sweet 16 potential. But with their 0-8 all-time record in the NCAA tournament, we'd love to see the Broncos actually win a game before we go picking them to win two in one year.

Record: 19-12 (11-8 in Big Ten)

Star Player: Tough call here with Tyson Walker, A.J. Hoggard and Joey Hauser all viable candidates, but any time Michigan State needs to deliver a dagger, it usually comes from Walker. He's one of several great three-point shooters on the Spartans roster, but Walker does most of his damage from inside the arc. He's barely 6'0" and he's 160 pounds soaking wet, but he's a tough, cold-blooded leader.

Biggest Wins: Michigan State had a ton of solid wins—Kentucky on a neutral floor in the Champions Classic; Maryland, Indiana, Iowa and Rutgers at home; Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Nebraska on the road—but nothing that stands out as a feather in the cap. However, the Spartans did come close to beating Purdue at home and beating Gonzaga on an aircraft carrier, so it's not like they consistently laid eggs against top competition.

Reason to Worry: This is a great three-point shooting team, but in addition to a defense that rarely forces turnovers and an offense that is average at best aside from the triples, Michigan State had a historic collapse a few weeks ago against Iowa, blowing a 10-point lead in the final 40 seconds. If you went into that game with any faith in the Spartans, it's surely gone now.

March Madness Ceiling: January, February, Izzo, right? Though they've been pretty inconsistent from one game to the next for the past two months, the Spartans rarely go more than three years between trips to the Final Four and have never gone more than four years between trips to the Sweet 16 under Izzo. And the last time they did either was in 2019. It would require a couple of upsets (or the bracket breaking in their favor), but maybe they'll go on a tear.

Record: 22-10 (14-6 in Pac-12)

Star Player: Boogie Ellis is the Trojans' leading scorer and a former highly touted recruit who has really hit his stride over the latter two-thirds of his senior season. But Drew Peterson is the player the Trojans could least afford to lose. The 6'8" veteran guard leads the team in both rebounds and assists, is one of its better defenders and plays a strong second fiddle to Ellis in perimeter prowess.

Biggest Wins: By leaps and bounds, the statement win of the season was the 77-64 home victory over UCLA. Beyond that, the Trojans swept each of Arizona State, Utah and Colorado, and scored a solid home win over Auburn in nonconference play.

Reason to Worry: The Trojans do one thing extremely well: contest shots. They average better than five blocks per game and boast one of the better two-point field-goal defenses in the nation. But beyond that? Meh. They're pretty average across the board. And while they block a lot of shots, that impact is somewhat negated by the fact that the Trojans allow second-chance opportunities at a much higher rate than most.

March Madness Ceiling: USC made it to the Elite Eight as a No. 6 seed in 2021, and this team has a similar ceiling. Ellis can catch fire against anyone, and easy, uncontested shots against this defense are few and far between. USC has been banged up throughout the season, but that win over UCLA was a great reminder of what this team can be at full strength.

Record: 21-11 (12-8 in Big Ten)

Star Player: Putting the ball through the hoop is not Northwestern's strong suit, but Boo Buie sure can take over a game at a moment's notice. The fourth-year point guard has scored in double figures in all but one game since Thanksgiving, and he doles out better than four assists per game.

Biggest Wins: Northwestern accomplished very little in nonconference play, unless you want to highlight a win over Liberty. But the Wildcats beat Purdue at home, swept Indiana and won road games against each of Michigan State, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Nebraska en route to a most unexpected No. 2 seed in the Big Ten tournament.

Reason to Worry: The defense is great, and Northwestern has one of the better turnover margins in the nation. But, man, scoring is a struggle. During the regular season, the Wildcats shot below 30 percent from the field as many times as they shot 50 percent or better (three games of each). They rank well outside the top 300 in the nation in effective field-goal percentage.

March Madness Ceiling: Northwestern has never been to a Sweet 16 (and has only once previously been to the NCAA tournament at all), but this team has the chops to pull it off. And for as much as we've railed on this offense, both Buie and Chase Audige have absolutely no fear of the moment and can hit some cold-blooded buckets. It might need to come in a pair of 60-56 type of ball games, but a second-weekend run is plausible.

Record: 25-7 (15-5 in ACC)

Star Player: It's a toss-up between Kihei Clark and Reece Beekman, each of whom averages around five assists per game. Clark is the better scorer, but Beekman is the better defender, named ACC DPOY. And since defense is UVA's calling card, it feels appropriate to go with him. Beekman has developed into a more reliable perimeter shooter this year, but he is more interested in setting up shots for his teammates.

Biggest Wins: Virginia won a pair of emotional games in Las Vegas against Baylor and Illinois in mid-November. A week-plus later, the Cavaliers went to Ann Arbor and scored a nice win over Michigan. Since then, though, there's not much to report. They won the home game against Duke in controversial fashion and took care of business at home against North Carolina, NC State and Clemson. They also had wins over UNC and Clemson in the ACC tournament.

Reason to Worry: Virginia leaves too much to chance, playing in 20 games decided by single digits. That was commendable when it was close wins over Baylor and Illinois or close losses to Houston and Miami. But lately, the Wahoos have been skating by against the likes of Louisville, Notre Dame, Florida State and Syracuse. And one of the games that wasn't decided by nine points or fewer was an abysmal 15-point loss at Boston College.

March Madness Ceiling: Virginia spent the entire season in the AP Top 20, even climbing as high as No. 2 in mid-December. Did this team ever feel like a legitimate title contender, though? And did any team crash harder in the final few weeks of the regular season? The Cavaliers definitely have Sweet 16 potential and could even sneak into the Final Four. But this is one of the least efficient Virginia teams we have seen under Tony Bennett.

Record: 22-13 (10-10 in Big Ten)

Star Player: Jalen Pickett had an unbelievable season that never got the national recognition it deserved. (From other outlets, at any rate. I've been lauding Pickett all year.) He entered the Big Ten tournament averaging 18.0 points, 7.3 rebounds and 7.0 assists per game. You rarely hear about the post play of a 6'4" point guard, but Pickett's propensity for backing down a defender into the paint before either hitting a close-range shot or kicking it out to a wide-open teammate is what made the Nittany Lions dangerous.

Biggest Wins: Let's not talk about nonconference play, where neutral-site wins over Furman and Colorado State were the only results even remotely worth mentioning. But in Big Ten play, Penn State swept Illinois, won at Northwestern and Ohio State and picked up home wins over Indiana, Iowa and Maryland. And then it stormed to the Big Ten title game to remove all bubble doubt.

Reason to Worry: The Nittany Lions live and die by the three, because they are too small to survive any other way. In the two losses to Rutgers, Scarlet Knights center Clifford Omoruyi had a combined 25 points and 23 rebounds. And while no one has been able to stop Zach Edey, Penn State really couldn't, allowing 48 points and 26 rebounds between those two regular-season L's. It's not always a death sentence. PSU did somehow rout both Indiana (Trayce Jackson-Davis) and Michigan (Hunter Dickinson). But it's likely a dominant big man (and/or an off shooting night) will be this team's undoing.

March Madness Ceiling: Though we simply must point out that Oral Roberts made it to the 2021 Sweet 16 with a "we can't rebound or play defense, so we'll shoot many, many threes to make up for it" approach, it's usually a strategy that goes up in flames. Penn State might win a few games, though.

Record: 25-7 (15-5 in ACC)

Star Player: Pick a number, really. All five of Miami's starters have been great in one way or another. But the best stat-sheet stuffer of the bunch has been "big" man Norchad Omier. We put big in air quotes because he's only 6'7", but he averaged nearly a double-double (13.6 PPG, 9.7 RPG) during the regular season. (Here's hoping his ankle injury suffered in the ACC tournament isn't too serious.)

Biggest Wins: Miami had a ton of good wins but no particularly great ones. Such was life in this year's ACC. The Hurricanes won road games against North Carolina, Clemson, Virginia Tech and UCF. They also won home games against Duke, Virginia, NC State, Rutgers, Providence and Pittsburgh.

Reason to Worry: Turnover-forcing defense was the key to Miami's run to the 2022 Elite Eight, but this year's team isn't as tenacious on that end of the floor. In fact, the Hurricanes had the least efficient defense among the seven ACC teams that had any realistic hope for a bid. Giving up 85 points in the awful late-season home loss to Florida State was a vivid reminder of Miami's mediocrity in that regard.

March Madness Ceiling: Far be it from us to disparage a regular-season champion in a major conference. But between the not-great defense, the lack of marquee wins and the recent duds against both FSU and Louisville—they didn't lose to the Cardinals but did allow 85 points—it's hard to put much faith in the Hurricanes. A first-round win? Sure. Sweet 16? Maybe. Anything beyond that, though, would be a bit of a surprise.

Record: 20-12 (11-9 in Big Ten)

Star Player: Illinois is going to ride or die with Terrence Shannon Jr. The Texas Tech transfer quickly emerged as an early candidate for National Player of the Year, hitting eight three-pointers in the big win over UCLA and later showing up in a massive way in the final five minutes of an overtime victory over Texas. Since then, he's been quieter, but he's still the main man for the Illini.

Biggest Wins: Those neutral-site victories over UCLA and Texas looked great at the time and grew more impressive as the season went along. But it's a good thing Illinois got those big wins in the first month of the season, because there were a lot of empty calories in its 11-9 Big Ten record. There were solid home wins over Michigan State, Northwestern and Rutgers, but nothing in league play that was a Quad 1 win as of the start of the B1G tournament.

Reason to Worry: Though the Illini ended up with a very "clean" resume devoid of bad losses, this is one of the most unpredictable teams in the nation. This is not even a game-to-game thing, either. We're talking oscillations from "title contender" to "can't hit water in the ocean" from one media timeout to the next. And that's at least in part because being a terrible three-point shooting team (31 percent) hasn't stopped the Illini from hoisting roughly 25 three-point attempts per night.

March Madness Ceiling: When playing well, Illinois easily has the talent to reach an Elite Eight. However, the inconsistent play points toward the Illini needing a fair amount of good luck just to reach the Sweet 16.

Record: 26-8 (13-5 in MWC)

Star Player: The Aggies have a potent offense in which five players average at least 10 points per game, but only Steven Ashworth leads the team in points, assists and steals. He wasn't even a starter early in the year when Rylan Jones was healthy, but Ashworth has been a force all season long. In the recent regular-season win over Boise State, he went for 19 points, eight assists and four steals with no turnovers.

Biggest Wins: Lack of big wins was the big problem with Utah State all season long from a bracketology perspective. Home wins over Boise State, Nevada, New Mexico and Oral Roberts are as good as it got for the Aggies. Until the MWC tournament, when they added neutral-site wins over New Mexico and Boise State, both by double digits. Even before that, though, they made up for it in the eyes of the predictive metrics by routinely blowing out teams in the 70-175 range of the NET rankings.

Reason to Worry: Perimeter defense has been an issue for the Aggies, particularly in their marquee opportunities. Between the losses at Boise State, Nevada and San Diego State, they forced a combined total of 27 turnovers while the opposition shot 31-of-58 (53.4 percent) from three-point range. Not great! And in their two terrible losses, they allowed Weber State to shoot 50 percent from downtown and forced just five turnovers against SMU.

March Madness Ceiling: The metrics love the Aggies and would have you believe this team at least belongs in the second round, if not the Sweet 16. But we say: Prove it. They had some nice wins in Logan, but until a few days ago, they lost by double digits in every game played away from home against tournament-caliber opponents. Utah State has won just one game in its last 17 trips to the NCAA tournament. Expect more of the same.

Record: 19-14 (7-11 in Big 12)

Star Player: Few players finished out the regular season hotter than West Virginia's Erik Stevenson, who scored at least 23 points in each of the Mountaineers' final five games. He also scored a then-career-high 31 in the B12/SEC Challenge victory over Auburn, and then he lit up Oklahoma for 34 one week later. He previously played for Wichita State, Washington and South Carolina, but this will be his first chance to shine in the NCAA tournament.

Biggest Wins: The 'Eers whiffed on most of their marquee opportunities, but they swept Iowa State, smashed Pitt on the road early in the season and won the home games against Kansas State, TCU and Auburn. Not much compared to the other tournament teams from the Big 12, but darn impressive compared to, say, the other teams who spent much of the year on the bubble.

Reason to Worry: WVU's physical brand of play can be a major problem for some opponents. However, when they're not forcing turnovers, the Mountaineers are nothing special on defense. And when they're not repeatedly marching to the free-throw line, their shooting and turnover numbers aren't great, either.

March Madness Ceiling: Though they didn't beat any of the many upper-echelon opponents on their schedule, the Mountaineers came close a bunch of times. They almost won at Kansas, almost won at Kansas State, battled Purdue well for 35 minutes in Portland, etc. And late-season wins over Iowa State and Kansas State could be a sign that they're gearing up for a special kind of run. I won't have the guts to bet my bracket life on it, but this West Virginia squad feels like that South Carolina team that went to the Final Four as a No. 7 seed in 2017.

Record: 19-13 (9-9 in Big 12)

Star Player: Freshman point guard Tamin Lipsey isn't much of a scorer, but he's the most important player for the Cyclones. In a rotation otherwise overflowing with seniors, Lipsey is leading the team in both assists and steals. And it's his impact as the first line of defense that makes the biggest impact, as that's the end of the floor where they have been one of the best teams.

Biggest Wins: Iowa State lost a dozen regular-season games against a brutal schedule but picked up remarkable wins along the way. The Cyclones swept both TCU and Baylor (and beat Baylor for a third time in the Big 12 tourney). They beat Kansas at home and nearly beat the Jayhawks in Lawrence, too. And though it didn't amount to much, Iowa State's neutral-site victory over then-AP No. 1 North Carolina felt like a massive result in November.

Reason to Worry: This offense is not good. It's not terrible, but there aren't any strengths or go-to guys who can catch fire at a moment's notice. As a result, Iowa State was held to 61 points or fewer on 10 occasions and lost each of those contests. Great defense is nice to have, but it can only take you so far if you can't put the ball through the hoop after getting a stop.

March Madness Ceiling: You don't sweep Baylor and TCU and go .500 overall in the best conference unless you have the talent to make a run in the tournament. However, inconsistency and frequent poor showings on offense make it feel like anything more than the Sweet 16 is a stretch. Then again, Iowa State won two games last year as a No. 11 seed with a substantially worse offense, so maybe this team can reach the Elite Eight.

Record: 20-13 (8-10 in SEC)

Star Player: We haven't gotten to see a whole lot of Nick Smith Jr. because of a knee injury that limited him to 12 regular-season games. But he has been on the floor with seemingly no restrictions over the past couple of weeks and playing at a high level. He scored at least 24 points in three of his final four regular-season games and could be gearing up to take over this dance.

Biggest Wins: For a team with 13 losses and great metrics, Arkansas hasn't done that much in the wins department. The Hogs smoked Kentucky by 15 in Rupp Arena, which was huge. They also clipped San Diego State in overtime in Maui and got home wins over Texas A&M and Missouri.

Reason to Worry: Three-point shooting was a major issue for most of the season, but that's nowhere near as much of a concern with Smith back. The bigger problem now is that the defense has forgotten how to function. The closing stretch of Alabama-Tennessee-Kentucky was no picnic, to be sure, but the once highly-rated Hogs defense might as well have been out there with matador capes. Those teams shot 61.7 percent inside the arc and scored a combined 68 points on free throws.

March Madness Ceiling: Two weeks into the season—with a healthy Trevon Brazile (who subsequently tore his ACL) and with the promise of Smith's impending arrival—Arkansas was the trendy pick to win it all. (I may or may not have a sad +1800 ticket from late November as proof.) But while the Razorbacks are nowhere near that good now, the ceiling is still high. Eric Musselman has led this program to back-to-back Elite Eights, and a third straight regional final is plausible.

Record: 31-3 (18-2 in C-USA)

Star Player: Quality depth is FAU's strong suit, boasting a nine-man rotation in which everyone plays 16-26 minutes per game. But the Owls' indispensable post presence is Vladislav Goldin. The 7'1" center averages roughly 21 points, 12 rebounds and two blocks per 40 minutes on the floor, scoring in double figures eight times in his final nine regular-season games.

Biggest Wins: The answer here is why we were never completely sure Florida Atlantic would get an at-large bid, even with 28 regular-season wins. Aside from a solid sweep of North Texas, the only noteworthy win on the resume was a two-point victory at Florida—in which the Owls somehow survived a 30-point, 12-rebound, five-block onslaught from Gators big man Colin Castleton. But even that win didn't amount to much in the end.

Reason to Worry: FAU didn't face a single team that was even in the conversation for a single-digit seed in the dance, let alone defeat one. And even the Owls' four best wins of the regular season (the three listed above and the home game against UAB) came by a combined margin of just 12 points. The metrics look great, but we have yet to see proof that this team can compete with a Final Four contender.

March Madness Ceiling: Reason to Worry aside, this is a deep team that takes and makes a ton of threes on offense, protects the paint on defense and simply has a winning mentality after a fantastic season. Though they have yet to face anything resembling a No. 1 or No. 2 seed, the Owls won't be afraid of anyone and could serve up a massive upset en route to the Elite Eight.

Record: 25-9 (15-3 in SEC)

Star Player: No one ever talked about Wade Taylor IV as a possible All-American, but aside from Zach Edey, he might be the most irreplaceable player in the nation. Texas A&M's point guard leads the team in points, assists and steals by a wide margin. He's the Aggies' only serious three-point threat, and he's also great at both getting to and converting from the free-throw line.

Biggest Wins: A&M's best nonconference win was...DePaul? And that win was surrounded by horrible losses to Murray State and Wofford? But the Aggies put in some serious work in SEC play. They won the late home games against Alabama, Tennessee and Arkansas, and swept each of Auburn, Missouri and Florida. Then they made it to the SEC championship.

Reason to Worry: Texas A&M thrives in physical games. It owns the offensive glass. It forces a bunch of turnovers. It draws an absurd number of fouls. But it's also around 250th in field-goal percentage and commits more live-ball turnovers than it steals. The Aggies won five of their final six regular-season games but also scored fewer than 70 points in each of them. And this defense isn't that good for that to be a winning formula.

March Madness Ceiling: There are a lot of red flags to worry about, not the least of which is a defense that pretty much begs opponents to shoot threes and still somehow commits more than its fair share of fouls. Yet, Texas A&M won 17 of its final 20 regular-season games and has put together a winning DNA after a brutal start to the year. This is a team that could make a run to the Elite Eight.

Record: 23-10 (11-7 in SEC)

Star Player: Well, the star was point guard Zakai Zeigler. But with that dime-dropping defensive specialist out for the year with a torn ACL, the Volunteers become the Santiago Vescovi show. The leading scorer and primary three-point shooter is now also responsible for running the offense. Which might be fine. He does have over 350 assists in his career, so it's not like they're asking someone who has done nothing but shoot for four years to suddenly try his hand at passing.

Biggest Wins: It's pretty hard to argue with a 14-point neutral-site victory over Kansas or with home wins over Texas and Alabama by 11 and nine, respectively. The Volunteers also blew out both Arkansas and Mississippi State at home while amassing nine pretty solid wins.

Reason to Worry: Even at full strength, Tennessee was a train wreck away from home in February. The Vols went 0-4 at Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Texas A&M, averaging 59.0 points in those games. We always say "defense travels," but in this case, so does bad offense.

March Madness Ceiling: Even with seven losses in its final 12 games, Tennessee has remained a metrics darling and a team that KenPom will have favored in just about any possible matchup until the Final Four. But the loss of Zeigler is massive for a team that often struggled to score even with a solid point guard. The defense is still great enough to survive a few rounds. However, if you were already skeptical of backing Rick Barnes in March, you should feel even better now about picking an early upset.

Record: 26-8 (13-5 in AAC)

Star Player: Fifth-year senior point guard Kendric Davis is the sine qua non for these ancient Tigers. Although, it's a bit of a weird situation in which they don't want him doing too much, as they lost the three games when he scored at least 30 points. But when he's clocking in his usual 21 points, six assists and two steals, Memphis is a problem.

Biggest Wins: Aside from a neutral-site victory over Auburn and a home win over Texas A&M, there's not much worth reporting here. And even that win over the Aggies wasn't newsworthy until they rallied from a dreadful run through nonconference play to destroy the SEC for two months. Memphis did also open the season with what turned out to be an impressive road win over Vanderbilt. And then the third time was the charm, beating Houston in the AAC title game.

Reason to Worry: When they're on, the Tigers are one of the best at blocking shots, forcing turnovers and just demoralizing the opposition. But when they're not on, they commit a lot of turnovers and fouls, and things can snowball against them. In five of its eight regular-season losses, Memphis allowed at least 90 points. (Two of those opponents needed overtime to get there, but still.)

March Madness Ceiling: There always seems to be one team that—though lacking in marquee wins—finishes strong and looks the part of a contender in large part because of a great inside-outside duo. Two years ago, it was Georgia Tech, and the Yellow Jackets were bounced in the first round. Last year, though, it was North Carolina, and we all remember how that went. Memphis is a strong candidate to bust some brackets.

Record: 26-7 (14-2 in WCC)

Star Player: Senior Logan Johnson is a three-time All-WCC selection, and he was the WCC Defensive Player of the Year this season. The 6'2" guard is filling up the box score, averaging 14.7 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.5 steals per game, and he tallied 19.7 points per contest in the team's three matchups against WCC powerhouse Gonzaga.

Biggest Wins: The Gaels avoided a season sweep at the hands of Gonzaga with a win on Feb. 4, and they also have a nice neutral-site Quad 1 victory over San Diego State on their resume. That said, their most impressive game might have been a 53-48 loss to Houston. That was one of only three times all season that a really good Cougars team was held under 60 points, and it showed the Gaels are capable of hanging with anyone.

Reason to Worry: This is a team built on defense and a slow, grind-it-out style of play, and that was a recipe for success all season. The Gaels went just 4-5 in games when the opposition scored 65 or more points, so keeping the score down and the tempo at a molasses-like pace will be a must against high-level opponents, and that can be easier said than done against teams with elite athleticism.

March Madness Ceiling: The Gaels share a lot of the same qualities as the Loyola-Chicago team that made a Cinderella run to the Final Four back in 2018, with a methodical pace, balanced scoring and good three-point shooting. They have that sort of tournament upside if everything clicks.

Written by Joel Reuter

Record: 22-10 (11-7 in Big 12)

Star Player: Do we have to pick just one of the guards? The trio of Keyonte George, Adam Flagler and LJ Cryer has been outstanding. All three can stroke it from downtown, each averaging better than six three-point attempts per game. And while Flagler is the primary distributor, all three (and backup guard Dale Bonner) share the rock at a high level for what has been an extremely efficient offense.

Biggest Wins: Baylor picked up neutral-site nonconference wins over both UCLA and Gonzaga, as well as a home victory over Arkansas. And in Big 12 play, the Bears won the home games against both Kansas and Texas and had a quintet of road wins over TCU, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma.

Reason to Worry: Interior defense has been a major struggle for the Bears. In each of their last three regular-season losses, Baylor's opponent shot 62.5 percent or better from inside the arc. And it's not like Iowa State or Kansas State is typically prolific in the paint. Such is life, though, when you start three combo guards and a center (Flo Thamba) who has blocked just four shots since early December.

March Madness Ceiling: Baylor feels like a team that could shoot its way to what would be a second national championship in three years. However, it is mighty concerning that Baylor's defense hasn't been this inefficient since 2009. The ceiling is high, but the floor is low. Hate to say it, but there are major 2020-21 Ohio State vibes here—which was the Buckeyes team that lost to No. 15 seed Oral Roberts.

Record: 27-6 (15-3 in MWC)

Star Player: Depth is a big strength for the Aztecs, who ended the regular season with seven players sitting between 6.6 and 9.8 points per game. But they do have one veteran, go-to leader in Matt Bradley, who averaged 14.4 points and 2.4 assists in MWC play. He hasn't scored 20 in a game since December, but that probably just means he's due for a hot streak, right?

Biggest Wins: San Diego State's great standing in the rankings/metrics was more a product of no bad losses than some overwhelming stockpile of good wins. The victory over Ohio State in Maui looked good at the time, but the Buckeyes imploded in Big Ten play. Beyond that, the Aztecs swept a good Utah State team, won at New Mexico and picked up home wins over Boise State and Nevada before winning the MWC tournament.

Reason to Worry: Rationally? There's not a ton to worry about. This isn't a great shooting team, but there aren't any overt weaknesses for a team that plays well above-average defense. Irrationally? Never trust the Mountain West, which has gone 0-8 in the past three NCAA tournaments and has never had a team reach the Elite Eight.

March Madness Ceiling: One of these years, San Diego State is going to break through and go on a run. And aside from that 2019-20 team that never got the opportunity to play in the dance, this is probably the best Aztecs squad of the past decade. If the Mountain West jinx doesn't get them, this is a team that should reach the Sweet 16 and could crash the Final Four.

Record: 21-12 (9-9 in Big 12)

Star Player: Mike Miles Jr. is so critical to TCU's success. He missed the early loss to Northwestern State, and the Horned Frogs crashed and burned for a few weeks when he was out with a knee injury. But when he's on the floor as the go-to guy, TCU typically looks the part of a title contender. Save for the game against Mississippi State in which he suffered the aforementioned injury, Miles has scored at least a dozen in 23 of 24 games played.

Biggest Wins: Not only did TCU win at Kansas, but the Horned Frogs obliterated the Jayhawks by 23 in Phog Allen Fieldhouse. They also won at Baylor, beat Iowa on a neutral floor and had home wins over Texas, Kansas State, West Virginia and Providence. That's quite the impressive list for a team that played a weak nonconference slate and played almost the entire season without at least one key player.

Reason to Worry: TCU had the worst three-point percentage among NCAA tournament teams last season, and the Horned Frogs have gotten even worse in that department, both making barely 30 percent of attempts and taking less than 30 percent of their field-goal attempts from beyond the arc. I suppose that is for the best since they're so bad at making them, but best of luck against a team that can run a zone defense and that keeps fast-break opportunities to a minimum.

March Madness Ceiling: When they have had close to their full complement of players, the Horned Frogs feel like a second-weekend team, if not a Final Four squad. But they've also played just three games at full strength since January 7, so putting faith in this team staying healthy for a prolonged run could be a mistake.

Record: 22-11 (12-8 in Big Ten)

Star Player: Were it not for Purdue's Zach Edey, it's plausible that Indiana's Trayce Jackson-Davis would have run away with National Player of the Year. Figuring out who else will show up on any given night is the great Hoosier conundrum, but TJD has been the MVP, averaging roughly 20 points, 11 rebounds, four dimes and three rejections per game. His season-high in each category is 35, 24, 10 and nine, respectively.

Biggest Wins: The season sweep of Purdue is the chef's kiss on Indiana's resume, but the Hoosiers have done much more than just raise some questions about their loathed rivals. They also won at Xavier, beat North Carolina by a dozen back when that felt like a bragging right and also swept both Illinois and Michigan. Throw in the home wins over Michigan State, Rutgers and Wisconsin and it has been a strong season.

Reason to Worry: Indiana has just two players who ended the regular season averaging at least eight points per game, and the non-TJD one is freshman point guard Jalen Hood-Schifino, who might score 30 or who might not be able to buy a bucket depending on the day. If he gets and stays hot, the sky is the limit. But if he struggles, Indiana is liable to become a one-man show.

March Madness Ceiling: Indiana might be the best team in the Big Ten, and it wouldn't be all that shocking to see the Hoosiers in Houston in a few weeks' time. Winning the whole shebang might be a stretch, but they did enough damage outside of Assembly Hall this season to be taken seriously for at least a few wins.

Record: 21-12 (14-6 in Big East)

Star Player: Ryan Kalkbrenner is the 7'1" center who makes nearly three-quarters of his two-point attempts. Arthur Kaluma is the inconsistent star who has the most NBA potential. But Baylor Scheierman is the heart and soul who leads the team in rebounds, steals and three-point attempts while also chipping in around 13 points and three assists per game. Getting him is what made so many people buy stock in Creighton as a title contender this offseason, and he has backed it up with his play.

Biggest Wins: It no longer looks this way on the resume, but that win over Arkansas in the semifinals of the Maui Invitational was one of the most impressive games of the entire season. Creighton also beat Texas Tech the previous day in that event and scored home wins over Connecticut, Xavier and Providence in Big East play.

Reason to Worry: Creighton has no depth worth mentioning, which is concerning in March. Moreover, between having one of the least turnover-forcing defenses in the nation and minimal offensive rebounding presence, the Bluejays allow nearly four more shots per game than they take. The defense does force tough shots and rarely allows free throws, so it often works for them. But when an opponent shoots at least 44.7 percent from the field—the national median for field-goal percentage—Creighton is 4-9.

March Madness Ceiling: Creighton spent the entirety of February in the Nos. 9-14 range of the KenPom rankings, which is primo "not a popular title pick, but surely a contender" territory. (Think UCLA or Texas Tech from last season.) The Bluejays are balanced enough to pull it off, and while depth is a concern, the injury bug gods owe them one this year after they lost Ryan Nembhard and Kalkbrenner late last season.

Record: 23-9 (11-7 in Big 12)

Star Player: In point guard Markquis Nowell and wing-forward Keyontae Johnson, it has been a real 1A/1B situation for the Wildcats. They both ended the regular season averaging 12.5 field-goal attempts per game, posting a combined line of roughly 35 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists and 3.5 steals. And when both halves of that duo posted an O-rating of 97 or better, Kansas State went 15-1.

Biggest Wins: There aren't three teams in the country who scored a bigger pair of road wins this season than Kansas State's victories at Texas and Baylor. The Wildcats also went undefeated at home, save for dropping the rematch with the Longhorns in dramatic fashion. It's a shame their nonconference schedule wasn't better (best win in OT against Nevada), but it's also hard to blame Kansas State, which was expected to finish in last place in the Big 12 under first-year head coach Jerome Tang.

Reason to Worry: While the Nowell/Johnson duo can be quite potent, Kansas State's offense as a whole is just OK for a team seeded this highly—especially when Nowell is sputtering through one of his turnover-heavy performances. The Wildcats are also nothing special down low on defense, lacking in rim protectors and occasionally allowing way more than their fair share of second chances.

March Madness Ceiling: With the grain of salt that they started the season ranked 77th, the Wildcats never made it into the top 16 of the KenPom rankings. By no means does that mean they can't reach the Sweet 16, but it does make you question if they have the staying power of the other teams. The Elite Eight feels like the ceiling for the Wildcats.

Record: 25-9 (15-5 in Big East)

Star Player: Xavier brought back four players who averaged at least 23 minutes per game last season, and they're all scoring in double figures. But the star of the show has been the lone newcomer in the starting lineup, Souley Boum. The former San Francisco Don and UTEP Miner has thrived in Sean Miller's offense, putting up by far the most efficient numbers of his career. When he scores at least 11 points and posts a positive assist-to-turnover ratio, Xavier is 17-0.

Biggest Wins: Xavier had some head-scratching losses to DePaul and Butler, but it also swept Connecticut and Providence and came a last-second putback away from sweeping Marquette. The Musketeers also won the home game against Creighton and scored a solid 10-point home victory over West Virginia.

Reason to Worry: We thought playing without Zach Freemantle (foot injury) since the beginning of February would be a problem, but the X-Men held their own without the big man. The bigger cause for concern is Xavier's perimeter defense. However, the Musketeers somehow swept Providence (no Freemantle for either game) while the Friars shot a combined 20-of-42 from downtown and committed just 13 turnovers, proving Xavier's offense can make up for the defense.

March Madness Ceiling: Xavier has never been to a Final Four. Nor has Sean Miller. And if you're going to refuse to pick the Musketeers to win four games because of that, it is hard to blame you. A more rational/current reason for questioning their staying power in the dance is their mediocre defense. But you don't sweep Connecticut and Providence and play nail-biters early in the year against each of Gonzaga, Duke and Indiana unless you have Final Four potential.

Record: 21-11 (12-6 in SEC)

Star Player: The reigning National Player of the Year is still pretty darn good. Despite missing the first two games of the season, Oscar Tshiebwe racked up 19 double-doubles, averaging better than 16 points and 13 rebounds per game. Kentucky fans still scream in horror when he tees up a long two-point attempt—if only because it means he's not down low to grab the offensive rebound—but he's one of the most impactful players in the country for a second straight year.

Biggest Wins: Kentucky did next to nothing in nonconference play and spent a good chunk of the season on the bubble for it. But in the end, what a strong collection of wins the Wildcats put together. Sweeping Tennessee was the piece de resistance, but UK also swept Florida, won at Arkansas and Mississippi State and picked up home wins over Texas A&M and Auburn.

Reason to Worry: Point guards Cason Wallace and Sahvir Wheeler have both been banged up, as has shooting guard CJ Fredrick, so who knows how healthy the backcourt even is for the dance. The Wildcats are also frustratingly reliant on mid-range jumpers, resulting in wildly inconsistent offensive outputs.

March Madness Ceiling: Based on both Kentucky's seed and its predictive metrics, anything more than a Sweet 16 feels like a stretch. But it's Kentucky. And aside from getting clipped twice by a red-hot Vanderbilt, it's a Kentucky team that seemed to be hitting its stride at the right time. The Wildcats made the national championship as a No. 8 seed in 2014, and they could win it all this year if the backcourt injuries aren't too problematic.

Record: 28-5 (14-2 in WCC)

Star Player: Drew Timme returned for his senior season after earning second-team All-American honors last year, and he has been the focal point of the offense once again, averaging 20.9 points on an extremely efficient 62.4 percent shooting. The 6'10" forward averaged 27.3 points and 11.3 rebounds on 57.1 percent shooting in three NCAA tournament games last season.

Biggest Wins: The Bulldogs went 2-1 against rival Saint Mary's, including a dominant 77-51 victory in the WCC title game, but their best win of the year was a 100-90 shootout against Alabama at the C.M. Newton Classic, which was essentially a home game for the Crimson Tide. They also picked up Quad 1 wins over Kentucky, Michigan State and Xavier during nonconference play.

Reason to Worry: The defense ranks No. 75 in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency after checking in at No. 11 in 2021 and No. 10 in 2022, so that puts more pressure on the offense to carry the load. The Bulldogs allowed 93 and 84, respectively, in early losses to Texas and Purdue, and didn't get markedly better in WCC play, allowing at least 80 points on five occasions. That could ultimately be their undoing.

March Madness Ceiling: If Timme can put together another stellar NCAA tournament run and the defense can hold its own, this Bulldogs team is more than capable of a Final Four run.

Written by Joel Reuter

Record: 26-8 (14-6 in ACC)

Star Player: Alabama's Brandon Miller was our pick for National Freshman of the Year, but Duke's Kyle Filipowski was a strong runner-up. "Flip" has 16 double-doubles, leads the team in points, rebounds and steals and has been the one constant throughout this first post-Mike Krzyzewski campaign.

Biggest Wins: It didn't seem that big at the time, but the win over Xavier in Portland, Oregon, was easily Duke's best of the year. (Though, sweeping North Carolina certainly felt like the best wins.) The Blue Devils also beat Iowa in NYC and had home wins over Miami, NC State and Pittsburgh before storming through Pittsburgh, Miami and Virginia to win the ACC tournament.

Reason to Worry: Early ACC tournament performances notwithstanding, Duke's offense hasn't been this not-quite-elite since perhaps the mid-1990s. The offensive rebounding led by Filipowski, Ryan Young and Dereck Lively II is excellent, but the Blue Devils are average at best in every other offensive aspect. That has resulted in 11 games (six losses) with 65 points or fewer. A big offensive dud at some point in the dance feels inevitable.

March Madness Ceiling: It'd be wild if Duke won it all in Jon Scheyer's first year at the helm, but it's also plausible. The full-season metrics might not support that assertion, but we're talking about a freshman-heavy team that started the year banged up and that battled through various injuries throughout the season. There were growing pains, but the Blue Devils are healthy now, and they would have won 10 of their final 11 regular-season games if the refs hadn't botched the end of the game at Virginia. We're not quite expecting a return trip to the Final Four, but it wouldn't be all that shocking.

Record: 29-5 (15-5 in Big Ten)

Star Player: Well, it's Zach Edey, the biggest star—both literally and figuratively—in the nation during the 2022-23 season. Purdue's 7'4" center is a double-double machine who needs to be doubled every time he touches the ball. You might get burned by three-pointers if you put too much defensive focus on Edey, but you're definitely going to get destroyed down low if you allow him to go one-on-one on every Boilermakers possession.

Biggest Wins: Purdue had an incredible run through the PK85 in Portland, beating West Virginia, Gonzaga and Duke consecutively on a neutral floor. It also beat Marquette in November. It does bear mentioning that the Boilermakers went 0-4 against Indiana (swept), a healthy Rutgers (home) and Northwestern (road) in Big Ten play, so there hadn't been a noteworthy win for a while until winning the B1G tournament. Even at that, they didn't have to face another seeded higher than eighth in that bracket.

Reason to Worry: The freshman backcourt of Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith has looked shook/gassed as of late, as opponents have more or less dared Purdue to beat them with anyone other than Edey. The Boilermakers also don't force many turnovers and don't make many three-pointers. Moreover, things could go up in smoke in a hurry if they get an officiating crew who calls a few early ticky-tack fouls on the big man.

March Madness Ceiling: The ceiling is, of course, a national championship. Purdue has been Top-Five in the AP poll every week since late November, and it has the most unguardable big man in many moons. That said, this team sputtered to the finish line and has made the Elite Eight just once in 13 tries under Matt Painter. It's not often that a No. 1 or No. 2 seed feels unlikely to reach the Final Four, but that's the case here.

Record: 28-6 (17-3 in Big East)

Star Player: One year ago, Tyler Kolek was an inefficient point guard—a guy who made Marquette fans cringe when he called his own number instead of setting up Justin Lewis or Darryl Morsell. But Kolek has blossomed into one of the best lead guards in the nation. He averaged 17.5 points and 7.6 assists per game in February and has been the driving force of a championship-caliber offense.

Biggest Wins: Marquette has done most of its damage at home, annihilating Baylor during nonconference play before knocking off each of UConn, Creighton, Xavier and Providence in Big East play. But the Golden Eagles did pick up a mighty fine road win over Creighton in late February before going to Madison Square Garden and beating each of St. John's, UConn and Xavier to finish off the Big East sweep.

Reason to Worry: Marquette is subpar on the glass on both ends of the floor. Five times this season, the Golden Eagles have posted a rebounding margin of minus-13 or worse. And though they have an excellent steal rate, the defense is nothing special on the 73.3 percent of possessions that don't end in a turnover. A dominant rebounder or a turnover-averse backcourt could be their undoing.

March Madness Ceiling: Marquette winning the Big East outright and climbing into the top 10 of the AP poll caught us by surprise, but make no mistake about it: This is a title contender. I always fade the "excellent offense; middling defense" teams, as they rarely make it to/beyond the Sweet 16. But this team is just good enough on defense to trust. In 2021, Baylor entered the dance at No. 3 in offensive efficiency and No. 44 on defense en route to winning it all.

Record: 26-8 (12-6 in Big 12)

Star Player: Dillon Mitchell is the athletic wunderkind who might be a lottery pick in a few months, but Marcus Carr is the veteran leader who stirs this team's drink. Carr leads the Longhorns in points, assists and steals, and he is their primary three-point option. He averages 15.9 points per game, and Texas is 18-3 when he scores at least a dozen.

Biggest Wins: Even before winning the loaded Big 12 tournament, Texas had fantastic home wins over Kansas, Gonzaga, Baylor, Creighton, TCU, Iowa State and West Virginia. But the Longhorns also showed they can get it done outside the Moody Center, winning at Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. Kansas is the only team that had more quality wins than Texas.

Reason to Worry: The defense is more than a little Jekyll and Hyde. The Longhorns held Kansas State to 66 on the road and gave up 116 to the Wildcats at home. They went the opposite way against Kansas, limiting the Jayhawks to 59 in the Lone Star State and allowing 88 in the Sunflower State. They also allowed more than one point per possession in the road losses to Iowa State, Tennessee, Texas Tech, Baylor and TCU.

March Madness Ceiling: Between Kansas' quest to repeat, the strong seasons by Baylor and Kansas State and the emergence of "full-strength TCU" as a trendy Final Four nominee, it sure feels like a lot of people have been overlooking this other doggone good Big 12 team that ended the regular season as the league's highest-rated squad on KenPom. Texas has never even played in a national championship game, but this team could win it all.

Record: 25-8 (13-7 in Big East)

Star Player: With an honorable mention to Jordan Hawkins and his recent 11-game stretch featuring eight 20-point performances, Adama Sanogo is the leading scorer and leading rebounder UConn needs to have show up in the dance. He was "no-brainer All-American" good during the Huskies' 14-0 start to the season, but he wasn't as potent while they sputtered through the first half of conference play. When he's playing with intensity, though, Connecticut's ceiling is sky-high.

Biggest Wins: Not only did UConn beat Alabama on a neutral floor in Portland, Oregon, but it also ran away with a 15-point victory over one of the top candidates to win it all. The Huskies also had an 18-point win over Iowa State in the PK85, and won the home games against Marquette, Creighton and Providence in Big East play.

Reason to Worry: Beyond Sanogo and Hawkins, who shows up? In particular, which version of Tristen Newton will the Huskies get? He's had two triple-doubles, one of which came in the big win over Marquette. He also had a combined line of two points, five assists, one rebound and four turnovers in the losses to St. John's and Creighton. While UConn doesn't live and die with Newton quite like Kansas does with Dajuan Harris Jr., he is a substantial X-Factor.

March Madness Ceiling: Connecticut entered January as the title favorite, and a strong finish to the season has served as quite the reminder of that. We spent an inordinate amount of time debating where the Huskies should be seeded, but they were going to be a strong threat to win it all, no matter the starting point. Moving into a three-way tie with Duke and Indiana for the fourth-most national championships in men's college basketball history is possible.

Record: 29-5 (18-2 in Pac-12)

Star Player: Jaime Jaquez Jr. is the lifeblood of the Bruins, and easily one of the most valuable players in the nation. He's the team leader in points and rebounds, but his fingerprints are all over everything UCLA does. After four years under Mick Cronin's tutelage, Jaquez has become an indispensable asset on defense.

Biggest Wins: The most impressive win was the 87-60 shellacking of Maryland, which otherwise went undefeated at home this season. UCLA also beat Kentucky by 10 points at Madison Square Garden and closed out the regular season with a relatively concerning home win over Arizona.

Reason to Worry: They lost DPOY candidate Jaylen Clark, who suffered an Achilles injury in the regular-season finale, and then freshman center Adem Bona got hurt in the Pac-12 semifinals. The former is out for the year, and even if the latter is good to go, can we trust an offense that is extremely reliant upon two-point buckets yet has shown on more than a few occasions that it can really struggle to get those buckets against opponents with size? (See: Both games against USC and both games against Oregon.)

March Madness Ceiling: Over the past month, UCLA emerged as the trendy "sleeper" pick to win it all. (UCLA was never a sleeper, but goodness gracious did a lot of people talk about the Bruins as if they were one.) This team is elite on defense, doesn't shoot itself in the foot with turnovers and puts in serious work on the offensive glass. Though the potential for laying a 60-point egg against a great opposing frontcourt very much exists, the 12th national championship in program history is a strong possibility.

Record: 29-5 (16-2 in SEC)

Star Player: There's been quite a bit of baggage attached to every conversation about Brandon Miller since police testified he brought a gun to ex-teammate Darius Miles that was allegedly used in the shooting death of Jamea Harris, but Miller's the star of this team. The freshman phenom has scored in double figures in all but one game (at Houston), maxing out at 41 in the recent overtime win at South Carolina. When he gets into a groove, it's a sight to behold.

Biggest Wins: Alabama got maybe the biggest victory of the entire season, winning at Houston in mid-December. The Crimson Tide also beat Memphis, Michigan State and North Carolina in nonconference play before a 26-point win over Kentucky and sweeps of Arkansas, Auburn and Mississippi State in SEC play.

Reason to Worry: After running rampant through its first 12 SEC games, Alabama was a mess down the regular-season stretch. And the turnover woes that were a major issue early in the year have returned in a big way. Even early in the run to the SEC title, the offense wasn't great. Whether it's late-season fatigue for a team that plays at a breakneck pace or Miller and Miles' alleged involvement in the Harris case starting to impact performance, things just haven't looked the same lately.

March Madness Ceiling: It would be kind of funny if Alabama finally made a Final Four in men's hoops in the one year it failed to make the "Final Four" in football, but a national championship is a very real possibility for the Crimson Tide. They sputtered late, but so did Villanova in 2018, and those Wildcats turned around and won all six tournament games by double digits. And at its peak, Alabama felt like a team capable of replicating that feat.

Record: 28-6 (14-6 in Pac-12)

Star Player: Azuolas Tubelis is the star of Arizona's show. If you haven't watched the Wildcats this season but have watched Gonzaga at some point in the past four years, Tubelis is a slightly better, slightly bigger version of Drew Timme whose relentless motor is the driving force of this uptempo assault. Tubelis usually hovers around 20 points, but he went off for 40 in a February win over Oregon.

Biggest Wins: Arizona had one heck of a run through nonconference play, beating San Diego State and Creighton in the Maui Invitational, thumping Indiana in Las Vegas and clipping Tennessee at home. The Wildcats also swept USC and split with UCLA before winning the rubber match with the Bruins in the Pac-12 championship. You can't very well question this team's ability to defeat quality opponents.

Reason to Worry: What you can question, though, is whether Arizona will even show up for the first weekend. The losses to Utah, Washington State, Oregon and Stanford came by a combined margin of 54 points, and the Wildcats were at full strength for each of those games. Momentum can be vastly overrated in sports, but this is a rhythmic team that looks incredible when it's in a groove and extremely disjointed when things aren't flowing its way.

March Madness Ceiling: If you weren't at some point convinced that Arizona was the best—or at least the most entertaining to watch—team in the country, you should really start watching college hoops in November and December. There have been some hiccups since then, but Peak Arizona might be as good as it gets this year. Whether the Wildcats can reach and maintain that peak in the dance is unclear, but this team is absolutely a candidate to win it all.

Record: 27-7 (13-5 in Big 12)

Star Player: Jalen Wilson went from being the glue guy on last year's national championship squad to one of the country's most valuable players this season. He scored at least 20 points on 20 occasions and will enter the dance with 12 double-doubles. He's a different player than Ochai Agbaji was, but he is every bit as critical to this Kansas title bid as his predecessor was to the last one.

Biggest Wins: How much time do you have? Just in nonconference play, Kansas had five strong wins against Kentucky, Duke, Indiana, Missouri and NC State. And then in the loaded Big 12, the Jayhawks won all of their home games except for the inexplicable 23-point loss to TCU, and also won at TCU, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Texas Tech. They had more Quad 1 wins than just about any other team had Quad 1 and 2 wins combined.

Reason to Worry: It all hinges on point guard Dajuan Harris Jr. When he posts an O-Rating of 77 or better, the Jayhawks are a perfect 25-0. When he finishes below that low threshold, though, they're 2-7, and five of those losses were ugly. Kansas also doesn't have a large/dominant frontcourt presence in its primary rotation, so running into a guy such as Purdue's Zach Edey, Indiana's Trayce Jackson-Davis or Gonzaga's Drew Timme could be a big problem.

March Madness Ceiling: There is no ceiling for Kansas, which is attempting to become the first back-to-back champ in men's college basketball since the Florida Gators did it in 2006-07. The Jayhawks have proved time and again that they are capable of beating anyone, and they are on the shortlist of teams that could win it all even without having the bracket break in their favor.

Record: 31-3 (17-1 in AAC)

Star Player: Flip a coin between Marcus Sasser and Jarace Walker. Sasser's the star if you love veteran guards with ice in their veins and ball-hawking defense on their brains. Walker's your guy if you prefer freshman phenoms who own the paint, own the glass and occasionally block a shot with such ferocity that you wonder if the shooter will ever emotionally recover.

Biggest Wins: Not a long list because the AAC is a mess beyond Houston and Memphis, but the Cougars swept the Tigers during the regular season, won at Virginia (which looked much better at the time) and survived a rock fight against Saint Mary's.

Reason to Worry: This offense has been known to endure the occasional serious cold spell, most notably in the 56-55 loss to Temple in January and the 49-44 game against Kent State in November. That little bug-a-boo reared its ugly head in the regular-season finale at Memphis and in the Cougars' AAC tournament opener against East Carolina.

March Madness Ceiling: This is the sixth consecutive season that Houston has been a legitimate title contender, but the ceiling has never been this high. Not only have the Cougars spent the majority of the year ranked No. 1 in all the predictive metrics, but they're also going to have an unprecedented-in-recent-years hometown advantage in the Final Four if they can get there. They were going to be favored in every neutral-site game anyway, but that little factoid puts Houston in a spot where it would honestly be somewhat of a disappointment if it doesn't win it all.