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Re-Evaluating Suns' Blockbuster Kevin Durant Trade After Disappointing Playoff Exit

Andy Bailey@@AndrewDBaileyX.com LogoFeatured Columnist IVMay 12, 2023

Kevin Durant
Kevin DurantAAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post

It's too early for final grades or sweeping declarations on the Phoenix Suns' blockbuster Kevin Durant trade. He's under contract for three more seasons.

But a loss as disappointing (and convincing) as the one Phoenix just suffered at the hands of the Denver Nuggets is forcing our hand.

After losing 125-100 in Thursday's Game 6, Phoenix's season is over. Devin Booker shot 80.0 percent in one of the Suns' wins and 77.8 percent in the other. In other words, he had to get to at least 77.8 percent for Phoenix to have a chance in a series in which it was otherwise dominated.

And it was a series that Phoenix was initially favored to win. Before the playoffs started, the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics were the only teams with shorter odds to win it all. Now, the Suns are done before the conference finals.

Of course, there's some context here. Chris Paul didn't play after Game 2, but Phoenix's only two wins came in games he sat. Deandre Ayton missed the Game 6 blowout, but the Suns were annihilated in the minutes he played this series.

In short, this team was handled about as easily as one can be in a six-game series. And that makes it natural to have at least a little doubt about the massive midseason trade that brought the Suns Durant.

After going 8-of-19 from the field in Game 6, KD shot 45.3 percent for the series. For much of it, he looked legitimately bothered by the on-ball defense of Aaron Gordon. Even rookie Christian Braun had his defensive moments against him. On balance, Durant looked thoroughly human.

And that can't be what Phoenix wanted when it traded Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, Jae Crowder, four unprotected first-round picks and a first-round pick swap as part of a four-team trade to land the 34-year-old.

In theory, the deal made sense. It still does. Again, there's plenty of time for it to prove itself a winner, but read those trade details again. That's a monumental amount to give up.

Forget Crowder. He was voluntarily sitting out until Phoenix traded him. But Bridges and Johnson combined for 5.4 wins over replacement player (value over replacement player times 2.7) for the Brooklyn Nets after the trade. Durant had 1.9 for the Suns.

Of course, Durant's number was limited by injuries (he played in just eight regular-season games for Phoenix), but that's sort of part of the package with Durant. He's in his mid-30s. He ruptured his Achilles four years ago, and he's averaged only 45.7 appearances in the last three regular seasons.

Meanwhile, Bridges is an ironman who's never missed a game in his career (he played 83 this season). After the move to Brooklyn, he averaged 26.1 points, 2.7 assists and 2.5 threes while shooting 37.6 percent from deep.

Cameron Johnson averaged 16.6 points and shot 37.2 percent from deep as a Net. And in concert with Bridges, Phoenix had a positionless forward duo that could switch all over the floor on defense and provide high-end release valves off drives from Booker and CP3.

Over the three seasons and change that those two were teammates of Booker's, Phoenix was a stellar plus-11.7 points per 100 possessions when all three were on the floor.

The Suns didn't just lose the production of 26-year-old Bridges and 27-year-old Johnson. They lost the identity and versatility that that trio brought. Without those, or a hint of depth, Phoenix was utterly exposed by a Nuggets team that came at it in offensive waves.

And that's before we even get to the loss of four first-round picks and one more draft consideration. The last pick from this trade is set to convey when Durant is 40. There's no telling how bad Phoenix might be by then.

If the Suns never win a championship in this new Durant-and-Booker era, each draft that passes without a pick is going to be painful.

But again, it's way too early to say Phoenix can't win a championship with Durant.

It feels like it'll almost certainly shop Deandre Ayton this summer. Perhaps it can do the same with Chris Paul. Moving either or both could maybe improve the team's depth or land role players who'd fit better with Booker and KD.

Those potential moves could contribute to better marks on the next quarter's report card. For this one, it's hard to give the Suns and this trade anything better than incomplete. When you make a deal like this, it's title or bust, but Phoenix still has some runway left.

That doesn't mean the organization can't bump this up to an A before Durant's contract expires, but it has a deeper hole to dig itself out of than some may have expected.