Ranking NBA's Best Star Duos After Bucks' Damian Lillard Trade

Within an hour of news breaking that the Milwaukee Bucks had acquired Damian Lillard, they became the betting favorite to win the 2024 NBA Finals.

That's a resounding vote of confidence in the pairing of Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo, which may have an argument to be the best duo in the league before it ever takes the floor.

The move also put a new focus on other duos around the league. If Dame and Giannis have an argument to top the list, who else does too?

When you start to break it down, it quickly becomes clear that some excellent one-two punches can't quite make the top 10.

To determine which ones did make the cut, we looked at combined 2022-23 wins over replacement player (value over replacement player times 2.7) from both the regular and postseason, as well as teams' net ratings (net points per 100 possessions) when both players were on the floor. There again, the numbers come from both the regular and postseason.

But this exercise is looking into the future, so those stats can't determine the order by themselves. Prediction requires subjectivity, so there's a healthy dose of that too.

With all of the above, plus projected fit, thrown into the analytical cocktail, the top 10 below emerged.

Total Wins Over Replacement Player: 30.5
Two-Man Net Rating: +6.5

On raw talent alone, the Philadelphia 76ers' duo of Joel Embiid and James Harden probably deserve to be higher.

The big man might be the most prolific scorer in the world. The guard might be the most prolific playmaker. In theory (and last season, mostly in practice), the fit is ideal.

But Harden's July trade request is still looming over this pair and team to a degree that makes it hard to have them in the top 10 at all.

At this moment, it's hard to know if Harden will even be on the team when the regular season starts. And if he is, it's hard to know if the symbiosis between Harden and Embiid will be as strong after a drama-filled summer.

But again, if talent was measurable, this duo's total would be about as high as any. And the connection that led to the most assists from one player to another in 2022-23 isn't likely to disappear entirely.

Harden's surest path out of Philadelphia might be showing up, playing well and rehabbing his trade value between now and the February trade deadline.

Total Wins Over Replacement Player: 27.8
Two-Man Net Rating: +3.4

Fresh off a second trip to the NBA Finals in four years, Miami Heat fans were almost certainly expecting to see Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo later in the slideshow. Consider their placement at No. 9 a testament to the depth of talent in the league right now.

If this exercise called for ranges instead of exact ranks, you could probably argue for this duo's high point to be around fourth or fifth.

As the 2023 postseason proved, these two (especially Butler) have an ability to ratchet up their focus and intensity in a way few others can when the game demands it.

And unlike a lot of the other duos detailed here, Butler and Adebayo can generate about as much value on defense as they can on offense.

Both players can guard all over the floor, thrive in switch-heavy schemes, create for and pass to others on offense and finish plays inside. Just about every box is checked by either or both.

Total Wins Over Replacement Player: 21.3
Two-Man Net Rating: +6.7

The Golden State Warriors failed to defend their 2022 championship when the Los Angeles Lakers knocked them out in the second round, but the starting group led by Stephen Curry and Draymond Green turned in another dominant, start-to-finish campaign.

Symbiosis has already come up on this list, but few can match Curry and Green on that level. They are each other's basketball sentence finishers. They always seem to know where and when the other will be cutting, when to deliver the pass and when to counter.

And this partnership has been working for almost a decade, to the tune of four championships and more winning minutes than anyone else in this exercise.

The top five in total plus-minus from both the regular and postseason over the last nine years is pretty vivid evidence of that fact.

1. Stephen Curry (+6,008)
2. Draymond Green (+5,061)
3. Chris Paul (+4,067)
4. Klay Thompson (+3,993)
5. Kevin Durant (+3,919)

Of course, much of that cushion was built up while Kevin Durant was there, and the Warriors seemed almost untouchable. Curry and Green aren't quite the same players they were then either.

But the way they know each other's games and tendencies is as strong as ever.

Total Wins Over Replacement Player: 16.5
Two-Man Net Rating: +8.0

This one takes a bit of a leap of faith, given the lack of availability from Kawhi Leonard and Paul George since they joined the Los Angeles Clippers.

In the four seasons since they signed, L.A. has played 3,662 with both on the floor and 6,449 with both off. But when they're in the game, the Clippers typically dominate.

Both Leonard and George are two of the game's better one-on-one scorers, with the ability to get to the bucket, hit mid-range jumpers or connect on threes. So, the team's offense doesn't even have to be terribly imaginative when they play. The ball in the hands of one, while the threat of the other flanks the action, is enough to score at a high rate.

And of course, both of these wings have multiple All-Defense nods (Kawhi also has two Defensive Player of the Year nods), so they can ratchet things up on the other end too.

In any given series, assuming both are able to play, this duo could emerge as the best.

Total Wins Over Replacement Player: 23.8
Two-Man Net Rating: +5.0

The amount of playoff experience that Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have already compiled together is truly remarkable.

Across NBA history, they're fourth and sixth, respectively, in career postseason points scored before turning 27 years old. And those aren't empty-calorie numbers either.

The Boston Celtics have been to the Eastern Conference Finals in five of Brown's seven NBA seasons. They went to the NBA Finals in 2022.

All of the battles Brown and Tatum have been through together will serve them well in the future.

Stylistically, this duo feels a little like a younger version of Kawhi and PG, with a little more willingness to get threes up in volume. And the fact that they're younger means they have the potential to be a little more dynamic defensively.

Total Wins Over Replacement Player: 27.3
Two-Man Net Rating: +3.3

We don't have much of a sample on which to base this analysis.

Kyrie Irving and Luka Dončić were only together with the Dallas Mavericks for a few months, and the team explicitly punted on the final few games of the season to preserve their draft lottery odds.

So, having them in the top five and ahead of some of the superstar duos already is definitely an out-on-a-limb take.

But Luka is almost guaranteed to be an MVP candidate (he's been top eight in MVP voting in each of the last four seasons). There's a chance he could even crash the "best player in the world" conversation. Over the last four years, he's averaged 29.4 points, 8.8 rebounds and 8.5 assists.

And though their time together was limited, it certainly looked like Irving and Dončić were ready to defer to each other in a way that will make the Mavs borderline unstoppable on offense.

There's really no way to completely shut off either individually, so that task becomes exponentially more difficult when both are on the floor. Kyrie or Luka against any team's second-best perimeter defender is a road to potential disaster for Dallas opponents.

Total Wins Over Replacement Player: 28.9
Two-Man Net Rating: +4.6

LeBron James has played with several stars over the course of his career, including Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. At his absolute peak, Anthony Davis may have an argument to be considered the best teammate LeBron's ever had.

During the 2023 postseason, until he faced the unsolvable riddle that is Nikola Jokić, Davis was probably the best defensive player in the playoffs. He averaged 11.7 defensive rebounds, 3.3 blocks and 1.4 steals in the first two rounds.

And when you consider that Davis can add the occasional 40-point outing (like he did in Game 1 against the Denver Nuggets) to that game-changing defense, it's not hard to imagine Davis being an All-NBA candidate this season.

He and LeBron could both be top-10 to -15 players in 2023-24, despite LeBron's age and Davis' struggles with availability, making them the first of four duos that might be able to pull that off.

Total Wins Over Replacement Player: 24.6
Two-Man Net Rating: +4.5

For the first four games of what became a relatively unsuspenseful six-game series against the eventual champion Denver Nuggets, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant made it feel like the outmanned Phoenix Suns had a shot to make the Western Conference Finals.

In those four contests, KD averaged 32.0 points, 10.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 2.0 blocks and 1.0 steals while shooting 46.9 percent from the field. Booker put up 36.3 points, 8.8 assists and 3.0 threes, while shooting 63.7 percent from the field and 57.1 percent from deep.

Their potential as a duo was on vivid display, as they drained jumper after jumper and dominated every aspect of Phoenix's offense. And though they lost that series, it was clear an attack spearheaded by Durant and Booker that was provided with even average support, would be darn-near unstoppable.

Total Wins Over Replacement Player: 28.1
Two-Man Net Rating: N/A

Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo have never played with each other outside an All-Star game. Analyzing how they'll operate together is almost entirely speculative.

And yet, having them at No. 2 will probably feel conservative to some readers.

If you sort every player with 500-plus minutes from last season by the average of their ranks in five catch-all metrics (as well as the cumulative versions of each), Giannis and Dame were fifth and sixth, respectively.

That means the Milwaukee Bucks are suddenly the only team in the league with two players who finished in the top 10 of that exercise.

On talent and production alone, it's easy to see how this duo elevated as high as it did, but it's easy to get excited about this partnership from a fit perspective too.

Lillard is one of the best deep-ball shooters of all time. In the play-by-play era (since 1996-97), Lillard is the leader in shots made from 30-plus feet from the basket. And he's coming off a season in which his points per possession as a pick-and-roll ball-handler ranked in the 94th percentile and his average for pull-up threes made per game was tied with Stephen Curry for the league lead.

In a word, defending Lillard at the point of attack is a nightmare. Now, imagine trying to slow him down with Giannis as his pick-and-roll partner.

If defenses jump Lillard in those actions, Giannis will have a chance to go downhill against a disadvantaged defense. If they don't, Lillard is likely to light them up from the outside.

This will very much be a "no good options" situation for Bucks opponents. And in a few months, it might be hard to keep this duo out of the top spot.

Total Wins Over Replacement Player: 40.5
Two-Man Net Rating: +12.1

Somewhat lost in the frenzied reaction to Milwaukee's trade was the fact that we just witnessed perhaps the most dominant single-postseason run from any duo in modern NBA history.

The Denver Nuggets went 16-4 on the way to a championship in large part because Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray looked like a more modern, often inverted version of Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant.

Their individual numbers over those 20 playoff games barely look real:

• Jokić: 30.1 points, 13.5 rebounds, 9.5 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.0 blocks, 54.8 field-goal percentage, 46.1 three-point percentage
• Murray: 26.1 points, 7.1 assists, 5.7 rebounds, 3.0 threes, 1.5 steals, 47.3 field-goal percentage, 39.6 three-point percentage

And watching them dissect everything defenses threw at them made it hard not to think about what might've been had Murray not torn his ACL during the 2020-21 season.

The way these two play basketball with and off each other is poetic. They seemingly have a counter to everything. And until some duo proves capable of slowing them down, it's tough to imagine anyone doing so.