Ranking Blake Snell and the Top 10 Starting Pitchers of 2023-24 MLB Free-Agent Class

Just about every Major League Baseball franchise hoping to contend in 2024 will be looking to add at least one starting pitcher via free agency this offseason.

And the good news is there are plenty from which to choose.

We've only ranked the top 10, but there are at least 20 solid arms hitting the open market—and that's without even accounting for the likes of Charlie Morton, Kyle Hendricks, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb who could be available if their current teams decline their club options for 2024.

Here's hoping this year's batch of top free-agent pitchers can make a positive impact, though. Because of the three who signed nine-figure contracts last offseason, Edwin Díaz did not pitch in 2023, Carlos Rodón made 14 starts with a 6.85 ERA, and Jacob deGrom made just six appearances before missing the rest of 2023 and possibly all of 2024. Brutal, and a big reason both New York teams missed the postseason.

This ranking of top free-agent pitchers is based on how coveted the player will be for the 2024 season. We'll discuss the age of each pitcher and how long of a contract he might be able to get, but this is not meant to be a ranking of perceived total contract value. This distinction allows guys like Clayton Kershaw and Sonny Gray to rank in the top 10, even as we wonder if either veteran will even pitch next season.

Shohei Ohtani, DH/RHP, Los Angeles Angels

If you want to count Ohtani as a pitcher, he's the undoubted No. 1 in terms of total money coming his way this offseason.

However, we're opting to exclude him from his list because we've already been told he will not pitch in 2024 following an unspecified (not necessarily Tommy John?) surgery on his elbow. And though Ohtani and his agent expect him to be able to pitch again in 2025, we shall see if that actually happens and how effective he can be after the second major procedure on his pitching arm.

Julio Urías, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers

Six weeks ago, Urías might have been No. 1 on this list. He only turned 27 in August, and he had a 2.63 ERA from 2019-22.

But he was arrested on suspicion of domestic violence on September 4—this after serving a 20-game suspension in 2019 for violating the league's domestic violence policy—placed on the restricted list by the Dodgers and hasn't been heard from since.

It's possible some team takes a flyer on him, but it's unclear at this point if or when he'll be allowed to pitch in the majors again.

Trevor Bauer, RHP, Yokohama Bay Stars

Bauer was back in the news last week, talking publicly for the first time about the allegations of sexual assault which led to his effective expulsion from Major League Baseball more than two years ago.

As with Urías, we have no clue if a team will be willing to sign Bauer. But the 32-year-old, 2020 NL Cy Young winner pitched well in Japan this season, making 24 starts with a 2.59 ERA.

Frankie Montas, RHP, New York Yankees

After undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his pitching shoulder in February, Montas missed almost the entire regular season, not making his 2023 debut until Sept. 30. But assuming he's good to go in 2024, we're talking about a guy who had a 3.69 ERA dating back to the start of 2018, mostly with Oakland. He'll probably get one of those "prove it" one-year deals plus a one-year player option that have become somewhat commonplace for guys with injury concerns.

Luis Severino, RHP, New York Yankees

This season was a disaster for Severino. He had a 6.65 ERA and one of the worst WARs in the majors. But he was solid last season and was a Cy Young candidate in both 2017 and 2018. Like Montas, Severino may well be headed for a 'one year plus a player option for a second year' contract as he looks to prove he can still pitch at a high level.

Michael Wacha, RHP, San Diego Padres

Wacha might not actually reach free agency. The Padres could exercise their club option to keep him for the next two years at $16 million per season. But if San Diego does make him available to the masses, he had a 3.22 ERA this season and a 3.32 ERA in 2022. And he's young enough (turned 32 in July) to generate a lot of interest for a multi-year deal after back-to-back effective campaigns.

Seth Lugo, RHP, San Diego Padres

After spending the past five seasons predominantly in a middle-relief role, how about Lugo going 8.2 innings in the 26th and final start of his return to the starting rotation? He has a player option for $7.5 million to return to San Diego in 2024, but it's just about a foregone conclusion he'll opt out for a more lucrative deal.

2023 Stats: 144.1 IP, 8-9, 4.99 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 0.7 bWAR

Career Stats: 667.2 IP, 42-34, 3.75 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 10.1 bWAR

Jack Flaherty could be an incredible buy-low candidate for any club that believes he can get back to what he was in the 2018-21 timeframe.

Flaherty turns 28 next week, making him one of the youngest players hitting free agency.

Four years ago, he was a legitimate Cy Young candidate, posting a 2.75 ERA with an NL-leading 0.97 WHIP.

Two years ago, he was solid with marks of 3.22 and 1.06, respectively.

However, he missed about half of that season and most of the subsequent season with a shoulder injury. And though he was healthy this year, he simply has not been the same unhittable guy he used to be, barely averaging 2.0 strikeouts per walk since the start of 2022—compared to a 3.5 ratio from 2018-21.

Again, though, he's young. And while his ERA and WHIP were a mess for his two months in Baltimore, at least his strikeout rate (10.9 K/9) and walk rate (3.1 BB/9) were almost exactly what they were during his rise to becoming St. Louis' Opening Day starter for a couple of years.

If he can just get that BABIP back under control—.390 while with the O's—Flaherty could be a legitimate No. 2 or No. 3 starter for years to come.

2023 Stats: 152.2 IP, 13-9, 3.30 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 3.3 bWAR

Career Stats: 1100.1 IP, 82-53, 4.03 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, 17.7 bWAR

Two years ago—after Eduardo Rodriguez missed all of 2020 and posted career-worst marks in both ERA (4.74) and WHIP (1.39) in 2021—the Detroit Tigers gave him a five-year deal worth $77 million. And as part of that contract, he would have the option to become a free agent this offseason if he felt he could do better than staying in Detroit for the final three years and $49 million.

Considering he's still only 30 years old and just had one of the best seasons of his career, it should just be a matter of when—not if—he exercises that opt-out clause.

At any rate, Spotrac estimates Rodriguez's market value at five years, $100.6 million, which is more than double what he's currently slated to make if he decides to stay with a team that hasn't had a winning record since 2016.

Rodriguez was absurdly good early in the year, making six starts from April 12-May 10 with a 0.43 ERA. And after returning from more than a month on the IL recovering from a ruptured tendon in the index finger on his pitching hand, he made eight more quality starts, including ending the season with back-to-back seven-inning gems.

He didn't want to go to the Dodgers at the trade deadline, but maybe he'll have a change of heart this winter.

2023 Stats: 136.2 IP, 10-9, 3.95 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 1.6 bWAR

Career Stats: 1303.2 IP, 77-76, 3.65 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 21.7 bWAR

Had Marcus Stroman hit free agency in late June, the bidding war would have been ridiculous. Because through his first 16 starts this season, he was leading the National League with a 2.28 ERA and was one of the top candidates to start the All-Star Game.

From that point forward, though, he had an 8.29 ERA, logging just 38 innings over the course of Chicago's final 89 games, due to a combination of early exits and a rib injury that sidelined him for six weeks.

At this point, he might just stay with the Cubs for one more year via his $21 million player option for 2024.

If he does go the free-agency route, though, he'll do so as a 32-year-old with a 3.38 ERA over the past five seasons—similar to where Chris Bassitt was last offseason when he got his three-year, $63 million contract with Toronto.

However, recent injury history could negatively factor into Stroman's payday.

In addition to this year's rib injury, he spent a little over a month on the IL last summer with a shoulder injury, and missed a couple weeks last May for an undisclosed reason. He also missed several big chunks of 2018 and almost all of 2015.

Given how many of last year's big free-agent pitchers battled injury during this season, durability might be a critical factor this offseason.

2023 Stats: 184.1 IP, 8-15, 4.88 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 1.6 bWAR

Career Stats: 1013.2 IP, 61-62, 4.43 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 12.4 bWAR

Much like Marcus Stroman, the number of dollars on Lucas Giolito's upcoming contract seemed to decrease as the season progressed.

He went six hitless innings in two of his first 13 starts and entered the All-Star break with a 3.45 ERA. But over the course of his first nine starts of the second half, Giolito got shelled at least once for three different teams, posting an 8.53 ERA during that six-week stretch.

In the end, he had an ERA almost identical to the 4.90 mark he posted in 2022. The only other pitcher to log at least 125 innings pitched with an ERA north of 4.75 in each of the past two seasons was Patrick Corbin—and goodness knows we had much to say last season about his drastic fall from grace.

So where does that leave Giolito, who entered the season at No. 6 (including hitters) on MLB Trade Rumors' ranking of impending free agents, and who most viewed as the most noteworthy impending free agent on the move at the trade deadline?

He was a legitimate ace from 2019-21, still has good strikeout stuff and only turned 29 a few months ago. Surely someone will be willing to offer him at least $15 million per year for at least three years. He could even sniff nine figures on a contract with club options.

2023 Stats: 184.0 IP, 8-8, 2.79, 1.15 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 5.4 bWAR

Career Stats: 1571.0 IP, 98-85, 3.47 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 30.0 bWAR

Sonny Gray was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball this season, putting the finishing touches on a five-year, $50.7 million contract for which he was worth 17.7 wins above replacement.

But does he want to keep pitching?

And for how much longer?

Gray turns 34 next month. That makes him a spring chicken compared to the likes of Rich Hill, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, but it also makes him at least a full year older than all but one other pitcher who was even seriously considered for this list (Clayton Kershaw).

Gray also spoke candidly with MLB.com's Do-Hyoung Park during the All-Star Break about the possibility of retiring after this season, now that he has hit the 10 years of service time threshold for pension purposes and contemplates whether he'd rather stay at home with his two boys.

He could end up signing a three-year, $60 million type of contract, though. Goodness knows he was productive enough over the past two seasons in Minnesota to warrant such an offer. But we'll see what he wants to do with the next few years of his life.

2023 Stats: 188.2 IP, 10-11, 3.20 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 4.1 bWAR

Career Stats: 755.0 IP, 38-34, 3.68 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 12.5 bWAR

Dating back to the start of 2021, Jordan Montgomery has a 10.2 fWAR that ranks 17th in the majors and third behind only Aaron Nola (14.6) and Shohei Ohtani (10.9) among pitchers hitting free agency.

He was good with New York, better with St. Louis and really impressive with Texas over the past few months.

But prior to going seven scoreless innings in Texas' postseason opener against Tampa Bay, few seemed to appreciate just how good this southpaw had been over the past few seasons.

It's at least partially because he doesn't really mow down the competition, last tallying 10 strikeouts in a start in September 2021. Save for a one-hit shutout of the Cubs last August, there haven't been many "Did you see what Jordan Montgomery did?" moments during the regular season.

However, he keeps walks to a minimum and has averaged a solid 3.7 K/BB since the beginning of 2020. He has also recorded a quality start in 43 of his last 94 starts, 20 of which came this season. (Only Gerrit Cole, Logan Webb, Zack Wheeler and Chris Bassitt had more quality starts in 2023.)

Whether he's the ace of the staff or a No. 2 starter is in the eye of the beholder, but Montgomery is on the short list of legitimate candidates to get a deal in excess of $100 million.

2023 Stats: 131.2 IP, 13-5, 2.46 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 3.7 bWAR

Career Stats: 2712.2 IP, 210-92, 2.48 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 79.9 bWAR

Historically speaking, there's a pretty clear Mount Rushmore of active pitchers, with Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw and Zack Grienke each north of 70 career bWAR. The only other active pitcher at 50 or better is Cole Hamels at 58.0—and calling him 'active' when he hasn't pitched since 2020 is mighty generous.

But figuring out where to slot Kershaw in his current state was the most challenging part of putting together this list.

If he does come back in 2024, it will almost certainly be on a one-year deal, as was the case in each of the past two offseasons. And considering he has averaged fewer than 127 innings pitched over the past three seasons and hasn't started 18 percent of his team's games in a season since 2015, any team looking to sign him simply has to assume there will be at least one semi-significant IL stint.

Game 1 of the 2023 NLDS notwithstanding, he's still mighty effective when he's healthy, though. And getting to spend a few months marketing Kershaw as the Opening Day starter and hopefully having him healthy for a postseason run?

That would move the needle more than getting a guy like Giolito or Montgomery, even though they're probably worth more in the long term.

Say this much for sure, though: If Kershaw signs with a team other than the Dodgers, it would be one of the biggest non-Ohtani stories of the offseason.

2023 Stats: 193.2 IP, 12-9, 4.46 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 2.1 bWAR

Career Stats: 1422.0 IP, 90-71, 3.72 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 31.7 bWAR

One major selling point for Aaron Nola in free agency is that you're not going to find a more durable pitcher.

Dating back to the start of 2018, he has made more starts (175) than anyone. And because of his combination of constant availability and above-average effectiveness, he is one of six pitchers worth at least 22 fWAR over the past six seasons, along with Gerrit Cole, Zack Wheeler, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.

That said, Nola was merely OK throughout the 2023 campaign, this after getting touched up for a 4.63 ERA in 2021.

It's not as troubling as Lucas Giolito's recent history, but it's something that needs to be considered before signing him to a massive contract.

He did at least eventually rally from a rough start to the year from a strikeouts perspective. Nola had an uncharacteristically low 6.95 K/9 through his first nine starts before ramping it up to 10.4 over his final 23 starts.

That return to normalcy should be enough to keep the rubber-armed, 30-year-old righty in the mix for one of the biggest contracts of this offseason.

2023 Stats: 180.0 IP, 14-9, 2.25 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 11.7 K/9, 6.0 bWAR

Career Stats: 992.2 IP, 71-55, 3.20 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 21.1 bWAR

Randy Johnson. Pedro Martinez. Roger Clemens. Gaylord Perry. Roy Halladay. Max Scherzer.

Blake Snell?

We'll need to wait a few more weeks before we can officially put Snell on that list of pitchers to have won the Cy Young Award in both leagues, but the 2018 AL Cy Young winner and presumed 2023 NL Cy Young winner is about to hit free agency for the first time in his career.

During that six-year run between Cy Young awards, he has been one of the best in the business, posting a 3.02 ERA and 11.7 K/9.

He notoriously issues more than his fair share of walks and has only pitched into the eighth inning five times in his career, never once finishing that frame. But for the innings that Snell and his often elevated pitch count are able to toe the rubber, he has been equal parts effectively wild and wildly effective.

Snell turns 31 this December, so he could be headed for another half-decade-long contract. But compared to the five-year, $50 million deal he agreed to the year after winning that first Cy Young, this next contract could be worth at least three times as much.

2023 Stats: 171.0 IP, 17-6, 1.16 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 9.3 K/9

Career Stats: 967.2 IP, 75-30, 1.72 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 9.2 K/9

In Kodai Senga's final season in Japan before signing his five-year, $75 million deal with the New York Mets, he tantalized prospective MLB franchises with a 1.89 ERA and a 9.7 K/9.

And Senga was sensational this season, giving the Mets a 2.98 ERA that likely would have been good for NL Rookie of the Year were it not for Corbin Carroll's existence.

But what Yoshinobu Yamamoto has done over the past few years with the Orix Buffaloes is much more in line with what Masahiro Tanaka accomplished before getting his seven-year, $155 million contract with the Yankees one decade ago.

Tanaka—who was also 25 years young when he was posted in 2013—went 24-0 with a 1.27 ERA the year before signing what was at the time the fifth-largest contract for a pitcher in MLB history.

But it's going to take much more than $155 million to get the two-time (not including the one he might win this year) Pacific League MVP, who was recently called "the Pedro Martinez of Japanese baseball" by Rob Friedman of Fox Sports.

"He has an upper 90s fastball combined with impeccable command of several plus off-speed pitches and has an advanced feel for pitching," Friedman wrote last month.

In particular, Yamamoto's curveball is preposterous, dropping off the table almost like a right-handed version of the pitch that is going to make Clayton Kershaw a first-ballot Hall of Famer one day.

Yamamoto is likely headed for at least $200 million and might sign the largest non-Ohtani contract in this free-agency cycle.