NBA 22 Under 22: Which Young Prospects Are Showing Most Potential?

We interrupt your start to 2024 so that we can bring you a definitive, inarguable, above-critique ranking of the best NBA prospects under the age of 22.

OK, so only half of that is true. "Best" is an interpretational term, which actually means this entire process qualifies as infinitely arguable. Bleacher Report NBA staff scribes Dan Favale and Grant Hughes have been tapped to guide you through this exercise, and rest assured, debating this order has culminated in their working relationship enduring many fractures and fissures, some of which may prove irreparable.

And yet, both of them are powering through, all in the name of #content #foryou.

Settling on this ranking requires some loose criteria. First and foremost, players must be in their age-21-or-younger season to meet the under-22 inclusion bar. This means anyone who is already 22 or will be 22 before Jan. 31 does not appear here.

Performances from this season have shaped our initial impressions and carry tons of weight. But this is not a batch of in-the-moment rankings.

Instead, view our pecking order through the lens of "Who should you want on your team for the rest of their career?"

Josh Giddey, Oklahoma City Thunder

Giddey can pass the ball, but he comes up short in virtually every other area. A negative EPM in every year of his career, some of the lowest true shooting percentages in the league and no demonstrated ability to defend any of the five positions reveal Giddey's career counting stats—14.4 points, 7.5 rebounds and 5.9 assists—to be mostly empty.

Jeremy Sochan, San Antonio Spurs

Due partly to being miscast as a point guard in the early going, Sochan has been one of the most damaging players in the league this season. Still just 20, the athletic forward rebounds well and profiles as a strong defender (even if a lot of the numbers don't support that contention yet). But until Sochan proves he can fill a role anywhere on offense, he has to slot just outside our top 22.

Peyton Watson, Denver Nuggets

Watson has looked better in an expanded role this season, adding respectable 34.5 percent three-point shooting to his springy and swat-happy defense. The 21-year-old forward isn't gunning with real volume, though, and he lacks on-ball verve offensively.

Also considered: Jordan Hawkins, Jaden Hardy, Moses Moody, Julian Strawther, Ousmane Dieng, Malaki Branham, AJ Griffin, Jaylin Williams, Taylor Hendricks

This bottom-rung spot came down to Josh Giddey and Bennedict Mathurin. The former's recent uptick nearly gave him the edge. In the end, though, Giddey's scalability to different roster and lineup formats bounced from the final jumble.

Perhaps Grant and myself will regret leaving him off. Mathurin, after all, is by no means infinitely scalable himself. Many of the same issues from last season plague him now: What will he be defensively? Will he knock down threes at an above-average clip? Does he have another playmaking gear?

Mathurin has answered these questions in the affirmative for stretches at a time. His three-point volume has not skyrocketed, but he's hitting them more often and seems more decisive on the catch when determining whether to fire away or attack. He's not racking up assists in droves, but he is passing on a larger share of his drives (24.5 percent) compared to last season (18.1 percent).

Microwave scoring is typically associated with chucking. Mathurin's offensive package is unique in that it's equitably founded around rim pressure and foul-drawing artistry.

Monitoring his efficiency at the basket moving forward is a must. And the peak version of him requires imagining a more consistent defensive motor. But overall, Mathurin looks and feels more plug-and-play than he did last year, even if only by a notch or two.

—Favale

At 6'7", Black's height and long arms are already making him an asset defensively. He's registering a stellar plus-1.6 DEPM, which ranks in the 89th percentile, and his minutes coincide with the Magic's defensive rating improving by 5.3 points per 100 possessions, the best of any Orlando guard with at least 200 minutes played.

Black needs to find his niche offensively, as he's mostly played the role of a low-usage connector to this point. It's encouraging that he's hitting 34.8 percent of his threes, but Black will need to add a lot of volume to his 1.5 attempts per game before any defenses get worried about him spotting up.

The defense plays, though, and Black's supersized guard frame remains highly intriguing.

-Hughes

It's hard to be sure how much of Jalen Green's slow development owes to a Houston Rockets operation that, until Ime Udoka took over for 2023-24, was defined by chaos and a lack of leadership. Though the No. 2 pick in the 2021 draft's athleticism, scoring instincts and offensive-star upside mean he belongs on this list, it's still disappointing he doesn't check in a little higher.

Green's open-floor speed and bounce (especially when attacking the basket off one foot) are his most conspicuous skills, and he's shown flashes of pick-and-roll orchestration. He ranks in the 78th percentile in assist rate among wings this season, though the overall picture of his offensive game—93rd percentile in usage; 27th percentile in points per shot attempt—screams he should have fewer responsibilities.

It's not easy to average 19.4 points per game across your first three seasons, so Green's scoring has to count for something. But he'll need to do much better than career rates of 41.8 percent from the field and 34.2 percent from deep if Green, an offense-first player, is ever going to sniff an All-Star Game.

-Hughes

One of the better defensive guards in the league from the moment he debuted as a 19-year-old in 2022-23, Dyson Daniels has a long way to go on the other end of the floor.

The New Orleans Pelicans knew the 6'7" Aussie was a project when they grabbed him with the No. 8 pick in 2022, trusting his connective skills—playmaking, cutting, offensive rebounding and general dirty work—would be enough to keep his clampdown defense on the floor.

Daniels has been a positive influence on New Orleans' defense, but his inability to threaten opponents as a scorer means he's strictly a one-way player at the moment. Though his elite steal rates help trigger breakouts and his top-end work on the glass creates second chances, it's just too difficult for a guard hitting 29.2 percent of his career threes to be a plus on offense.

Daniels' defense gives him a clear carrying skill. If he can sort out the other parts of his game, chiefly the shooting aspect, the Pelicans could have a top-tier starter on their hands.

-Hughes

Somehow still a bit of a mystery in his third season, Jonathan Kuminga produces spans of mistake-riddled play that make you wonder if he'll ever stick in a rotation, followed by stretches that suggest he can become something close to a first-option star.

Kuminga is a hyper-athletic slasher with an ideal big-wing frame for the modern game. He's shown the ability to attack and finish over some of the league's most imposing interior defenders, and his raw physical strength and explosiveness put opponents in positions where fouling is their only option.

Especially as a mid-post threat, Kuminga is too strong for smalls and too quick for bigs.

The rough edges are the issue. Kuminga is now shooting under 30.0 percent from long range, under 70.0 percent from the foul line and doesn't rebound consistently enough given his athleticism. He's averaging double figures for the first time but has registered more turnovers than assists and still hasn't carved out a clear 30-minute role on a team that desperately needs the best version of him.

The ceiling is sky-high, but can Kuminga reach it?

-Hughes

Raise your hand if you were among those who criticized Oklahoma City Thunder executive vice president Sam Presti for overpaying to move up two spots and nabbing Cason Wallace.

[Sheepishly raises hand.]

WELP.

Declaring Wallace more important to the Thunder's bigger picture than Josh Giddey likely rankles one feather too many so early into his career. I'm going there anyway.

Lead guards need to bust out more offensive aggression. Here's the thing: Oklahoma City doesn't need Wallace to be a lead guard. It needs him to fit into a much broader context.

So far, Wallace is doing just that. He's swishing complementary twos and threes while sprinting up and down the floor and hardly ever gumming up the in-between zones on- or off-ball. And you could say he's defending his butt off, but it'd be a massive understatement.

Standing at 6'4", he has the strength and mobility to guard 1 through 3. His screen navigation is impossibly effective, he has the back-pedaling speed to play aggressors straight-up, and he is already First Team All-Wait-Did-He-Really-Just-Block-That?!

Climbing further up this hierarchy is not out of the question—provided Wallace shows more as a playmaker and self-creator. Whether he gets that opportunity in Oklahoma City is a separate matter. For now, the Thunder appear to have an ideal fit—and, thus, another building block—on their hands.

—Favale

Jalen Duren missed nearly half of the Detroit Pistons' games prior to the New Year, which means maybe we can absolve him of some responsibility for his team's historic losing streak. For what it's worth, the on-off numbers show Detroit's second-year center has at least helped keep things respectable when he's on the floor. The Pistons "only" get outscored by 6.1 points per 100 possessions with Duren in the game, the second-best figure of any player on the team with at least 500 minutes.

A supremely athletic big, Duren is already a quality offensive rebounder and powerful finisher, even if he has only shown faint hints of expanding his shooting range. An effective shot-deterrent inside, Duren holds opponents to 51.5 percent shooting near the basket, an accuracy rate bettered by only a handful of the league's top high-volume rim-protectors.

Take the numbers with a grain of salt given Detroit's losing environment, but Duren is on pace to become the second 20-year-old to ever average at least 12.0 points and 11.0 boards while hitting at least 60.0 percent of his shots.

-Hughes

It's exceptionally rare for a rookie center to immediately take on a first-unit role and not completely destroy his team's defense. Over the last decade, we've seen only two first-year centers with at least 50 starts produce a positive Defensive Box Plus/Minus.

Dereck Lively II, who's started all but one of the contests he's played for the Dallas Mavericks, is on pace to become the third.

Though he hasn't yet shown much offensive diversity, Lively's lob-catching and offensive rebounding will play just fine if he continues to perform well beyond age-based expectations on D.

Third behind Holmgren and Wemby among under-22 players in blocks this season, Lively's activity and length are huge reasons the Mavs' defensive rating improves by 6.0 points per 100 possessions (88th percentile) when he's on the floor.

With such a limited offensive game, Lively doesn't project to become an All-Star. But he's already an awesome defensive anchor, typically one of toughest roles for a young player to handle.

-Hughes

The concept of "connectors" has become a cliche, an abstract evaluation thrown around almost cavalierly, often as a shorthand for "Dude who isn't a star and probably won't ever be a star, but I like him and he seems to play smart."

Brandin Podziemski typifies every possible version of "connector." But his designation is not a cliche. It's just accurate.

His impact is wide-ranging and balanced, embodying the kind of stylistic archetype that demands you watch him on every possession, at both ends of the floor, whether he's on or off the ball. It feels like he never stops moving, and he often doesn't.

The way he pinballs around on offense, reading and reacting to those around him, is an event unto itself. His passes can be too daring, but they are crisp and well-intentioned. His drives and cuts are purposeful. He defends with a "don't eff with me, bro" attitude of someone much taller and longer.

That defensive backbone may be the most impressive part of his game. No way, no how, should someone standing shorter than 6'4", with a wingspan under 6'6", be effectively shuttling between assignments ranging from Scoot Henderson and Jamal Murray to James Harden and even a dab of Kawhi Leonard.

Ruling out a star's arc is bad form this early into the game. More likely than not, though, Podz will end up a quintessential gap-filler who both preserves his team's floor and elevates its ceiling while dipping his feet into every statistical category the box score cares to track.

Speaking of which, just for fun, here's every player to average at least 15 points, 10 rebounds, five assists and two steals per 100 possessions before their 21st birthday: LaMelo Ball, Nikola Jokić, Tracy McGrady, and now, potentially, Podz.

—Favale

Amen Thompson is the hardest name to place inside this hierarchy. A sprained right ankle coupled with a non-COVID illness sidelined him for most of the season, and he's not yet 10 games into his return.

Slotting him higher based entirely on his physical tools wouldn't be unfair. He is a 6'7" primary ball-handler who is already providing glimpses into the havoc he creates with his live dribble.

Thompson appears at home surveying defenses in the lane and firing off passes inside pockets of space. The variable cadence at which he plays begets enviable volume at the rim. He has the blow-by speed that warrants slow-motion replays but also has a knifing deliberateness he can use to wear down anyone in front of him. (Jalen Green is jealous as hell.)

Impact defense is a given. Thompson has a frame that's tough to shake, and he's shown early on he can handle some physical assignments.

Much like his twin brother, Ausar Thompson, Amen's biggest question mark is his jumper. A 6-of-13 clip on twos outside of 14 feet to begin his career piques curiosity—particularly when not all of those looks are unguarded last resorts. But his warts from beyond the arc and charity stripe endure.

Even so, his standing here may seem foolish in a few years, if not a few months—inadvertently repressed by a limited amount of information on what he looks like at this level.

—Favale

Thrusting Keyonte George into a lead guard's role almost right out of the gate hasn't always looked pretty. It's also not much of a concession. The Utah Jazz are not the San Antonio Spurs, experimenting at the floor general spot past the point of sensibility, with Tre Jones sitting on their bench. George is both a genuine primary-initiator prospect and the team's best shot at relative offensive coherence.

George, for the most part, is providing enough flashes and flickers to instill confidence—and to make me wonder whether he's ultimately too low here.

His shaky efficiency inside the arc is slightly unnerving. He needs to more consistently probe pockets of space in the name of rim pressure rather than prematurely pick up his dribble, defer too soon or settle for lower-percentage in-between looks.

At the same time, George's jumper and floaters and runners appear to be inevitable weapons. Downing nearly 37 percent of his off-the-dribble threes is a great harbinger, even as his spot-up clip slumps.

There is also an uncanny surgicality to George's decision-making. He has the worminess to get defenses off tilt going downhill and can invite pronounced collapses and contact without journeying too far into the trees.

Among everyone to finish at least 100 drives, George joins Spencer Dinwiddie, Damian Lillard and teammate Collin Sexton as the only players posting assist and foul rates north of 10. Though his eventual peak remains undefined, George's best-case ceiling is no lower than that of an All-Star.

—Favale

Marginalized to a degree that has maddened Detroit Pistons fans all year, Jaden Ivey hasn't gotten the chance to build on a promising closing run to his rookie season. Ivey averaged 19.3 points and 7.1 assists in 19 games after the All-Star break and seemed poised for more in 2023-24—particularly with additional surrounding talent on the way and Cade Cunningham set to return.

Instead, Ivey's minutes are down by about five per game, and he's seen his point, rebound and assist averages drop from their rookie levels. The shocking bursts of speed are still there, and the 21-year-old has quietly upped some key efficiency metrics on offense. But a 56.9 true shooting percentage (up from 52.8 percent last year) and a higher free-throw rate don't change the fact that Ivey's second year has been a disappointment so far.

Rather than blame the player picked fifth in 2022, we're pointing the finger at a Pistons team that has mismanaged several rotation decisions in a historically unsuccessful season.

-Hughes

Matt Modderno and Jahidi White of the Bleav in Wizards podcast had a great discussion to open their Dec. 29 episode on the offensive development of Bilal Coulibaly. Modderno specifically—and rightfully—called out the Washington Wizards for over-marginalizing him on the offensive end, where his usage remains an uncomfortable meld of modest and inconsistent.

It says a lot about the 19-year-old, though, that he's one of team's foremost bright spots anyway.

Portrayed as a caps-lock PROJECT coming out of the draft, Coulibaly already looks the part of an NBA player. Discovering more about his offensive utility needs to be a priority post-trade deadline, when the Wizards will presumably look much different and be even less invested in winning games. But Coulibaly is finding ways to impact the game as a possession-finisher.

His three-point clip continues to hover north of 40 percent, he's proved to be a reasonable scorer and decision-maker on situational drives, and defenses struggle to track him in transition. The runners and pull-ups he fires off are largely experimental, but they look good enough to intrigue.

The defensive workload he's shouldering as a non-big, meanwhile, belies rookie-year tropes. Washington is tossing him on offensive primaries, and he's fattening up his portfolio with step-for-step blocks, on-a-dime rotations and sturdy, low-foul stands that suggest it's only a matter of time before his two-way impact explodes into the mainstream.

—Favale

Shooting questions abound, but Ausar Thompson's prospect profile is otherwise phenomenal.

The Detroit Pistons wing is an A-plus athlete who might already be the best non-big-man rebounder in the NBA. No one listed at 6'7" matches Thompson's 10.1 boards per 36 minutes.

He also tops everyone under 6'7" in blocks per 36, further evidence of Thompson's ability to impact the game in ways few wings and forwards can.

Add to that hellacious defensive disruption tremendous finishing at the basket (where Thompson attempts an elite 55.0 percent of his field goals) and assist rates that would satisfy most point guards, and you've got virtually every box ticked other than the one next to "perimeter shooting."

If the accuracy he's shown on short turnarounds eventually extends out to the three-point line, Thompson could be ticketed for stat-stuffing superstardom. This is assuming the Pistons ever give Thompson a real chance to thrive, which has only happened sporadically this season.

-Hughes

Brandon Miller is, rather quietly, cobbling together an encouraging debut campaign. The "Should the Charlotte Hornets have taken Scoot Henderson?!?" discourse won't dissipate anytime soon. But Miller has done an excellent job making it more of a debate rather than vitriolic conclusion—and not just because he's been more available than the No. 3 pick.

A tip of the cap goes to Miller for his defensive hustle. He can get burned by guys used to pinging around away from the primary action, but his on-ball stands remain sturdy against players of all sizes and speeds, and he will challenge shots as the secondary or emergency line of protection at the basket.

Wholesale questions remain on the offensive end. Chief among them: Can Miller transcend the plug-and-play billing bestowed upon those who don't quite fit the superstar criteria? The jury is still out. Miller has fared well as an ancillary passer, but more creation reps amid injuries have exposed his current limitations as a facilitator and self-starting scorer.

That's not a huge deal. You don't want Miller shouldering a 1A's burden at both ends, and he has provided glimpses into an operable in-between game as well as the capacity to leverage his size into more difficult jumpers. He is a rock-solid 5-of-11 on step-backs, a small sample that nevertheless foments additional long-term intrigue.

—Favale

Shaedon Sharpe's offensive electricity is undeniable.

And I'm not just talking about the dunks.

Putting pressure on the basket is the crux of Sharpe's armory, but talent deficiencies around him have clogged the floor, juiced up the difficulty on his attempts and messed with his efficiency. Shifting circumstances have forced him to explore counters. The expedition is going well...for the most part.

Sharpe still needs to hone his passing and decision-making—specifically when it comes to takeoff points and off-the-dribble shot selection. But he is once again nailing over 40 percent of his spot-up triples and has drastically upped the frequency with which he defers when driving to the basket (34 percent this year, up from 22.8 percent last season).

Refining one or more of his playmaking, efficiency on self-created looks and defense will invariably determine whether Sharpe broaches the stardom pole. The reps he's getting now are mostly encouraging in that regard—though, the Portland Trail Blazers continue to insulate him against covering primary options.

—Favale

You don't have to thin-slice the data to highlight Jabari Smith Jr.'s unique combination of skills. If the 6'11" forward's numbers hold, he'll become the first 20-year-old in league history to average over 13.0 points and 8.0 rebounds while hitting at least 37.0 percent of his threes.

Anyone who gave up on the No. 3 pick in the 2022 draft after last season's rough start made a grave error. After finishing his rookie year on a tear, Smith now profiles as an immensely valuable three-and-D forward with tons of additional upside that extends well beyond role-player status.

Smith is just barely tapping into individual shot creation, as evidenced by a larger share of his baskets coming without an assist and rising scoring efficiency. He's an ace mid-range shooter whose length allows him to elevate over all but the rangiest centers.

Already an elite two-way supporting piece, Smith still has the potential to become a star in his own right.

-Hughes

Scoot Henderson threatened to get lost somewhere in the middle of this shuffle at the start of the season. A sprained right ankle cost him nine games, and he was playing with a dial-turned-to-11-sans-any-brakes rhythm upon his return.

Steadier performances are peppered throughout his resume over the past couple of weeks. He is playing with more change of pace inside the half-court and showing greater command of the offense in traffic. His efficiency inside the arc remains lamentable, but his acceleration and downshifting draw defensive focus that's starting to more measurably benefit those around him.

Better finishing at the basket is inevitable given Henderson's physical profile. His overall shot-making should dramatically improve once the Portland Trail Blazers are built to winnow down his long twos and increase his off-ball experience.

To that end, he's already flashing signs of life from beyond the arc. He has drilled 42.5 percent of his threes over his past 11 games, and his pull-up three is falling at a 37.8 percent clip for the season.

—Favale

There are only a handful of true offensive hubs among the players we're considering here, and Alperen Sengün has been the best of them. That he's running things so effectively from the center position only underscores his worthiness of such a high ranking.

No under-22 player has more than Sengün's 163 assists this season, and Wembanyama is the only one with more total rebounds. Ditch the age cutoff, and the Houston Rockets big man is one of four players in the entire association averaging at least 20.0 points, 9.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists while shooting over 50.0 percent from the field.

The other three—Nikola Jokić, Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo—have the last five MVPs between them.

Defense was a concern earlier in Sengün's career, but he's working harder on that end and has improved his anticipation on the back line. After two years of substandard D, the 21-year-old's DEPM is now in positive territory.

-Hughes

Paolo Banchero's trajectory is veering into underrated territory. There's a tendency to treat him as someone less than a superstar cornerstone—which, frankly, doesn't make any sense.

The 21-year-old is clearing 30 points and six assists per 100 possessions with a free-throw-attempt rate north of 0.40. He pretty much hit those same benchmarks last season as a rookie. The only other players to do this at least once in their first two years? Luka Dončić (twice), Michael Jordan, Dwyane Wade and Trae Young.

Harping on Banchero's efficiency is fair. He has yet to sniff a league-average true shooting percentage. Almost nothing he does on offense feels like it comes easy.

News flash: that's because it doesn't.

Quality spacing is hard to come by for the Orlando Magic. It's a wonder that Banchero is able to generate as many paint attempts and fouls as he does amid the congestion. And with Markelle Fultz missing most of this season, he is being saddled with more creation duties and fewer possessions in which he's receiving entry passes that allow for higher-efficiency setups.

Do not take Banchero's body of work lightly—especially on defense, where he is stronger, more switchable and tougher to shove around than credited.

—Favale

When Dan and I put together our All-Star picks in late December, Chet Holmgren was the only under-22 inclusion for a reason: He's clearly been the most effective two-way player within this age group.

The Oklahoma City Thunder rookie is among the top 10 league-wide in Estimated Plus-Minus, sandwiched between Kawhi Leonard and Anthony Davis, and he ranks even higher when sorting by Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus. Holmgren is already an elite rim-protecting big who ranks in the 96th percentile at his position in block rate and drives down opponent rim attempt frequency by 3.8 percent when on the floor, making him a strong deterrent.

Throw in a 65.4 true shooting percentage that ranks first among under-22 players with at least 200 field-goal attempts, and you get a sense of his two-way impact.

An excellent spacer at the 5 who can attack off the dribble, finish at the rim, dime up cutters, hit floaters and dominate the game defensively, Holmgren is the total package.

And he won't turn 22 until May.

-Hughes

Victor Wembanyama is the no-brainer call for the No. 1 spot. People will get bogged down by his offensive inefficiency as well as the San Antonio Spurs' overall crappiness. But he just turned 20 on Jan. 4. Let's pump the brakes on any and all concerns.

Adjectives are already failing to describe what Wembanyama does on defense. Opponents shoot just 50.9 percent at the rim against him—a top-six mark among anyone to contest at least 100 looks. Rival offenses are also seeing their at-the-basket frequency plunge by 5.1 percentage points when he's in the game, a swing that rates in the 98th percentile and has grown more pronounced since San Antonio started using him as the lone big.

Decoupling Wemby from another 4/5 is beginning to pay dividends on offense, too. He is downing 35.6 percent of his triples since the Spurs removed Zach Collins from the starting unit. And while Wemby's efficiency inside the arc leaves much to be desired, he's subsisting on a lot of tough jumpers.

Clearing 50 percent on twos under the circumstances is a huge deal. More of his pull-ups should fall over time given his sheer height advantage. And in the event they don't, well, San Antonio will eventually be smart enough to pair him with a floor general who can get him the ball closer to the basket on a more consistent basis.

Unless otherwise noted, stats come courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass and are accurate entering games played on Wednesday, Jan. 3. Salary information via Spotrac. Subscribe to Dan and Grant's NBA podcast, Hardwood Knocks.