Predicting Early MLB Offseason Decisions on Qualifying Offers, Contract Options, More

Now that the 2023 MLB season is officially over and the Texas Rangers have been crowned World Series champions, the focus now shifts to what promises to be another busy offseason.

The free agent and trade markets don't generally kick into full gear until the annual winter meetings in early December, but there is a lot of organizational housekeeping that will take place in the coming weeks.

Within five days of the conclusion of the World Series, contract options need to be exercised or declined, qualifying offers will be extended to a handful of free agents, and teams will have to decide whether they want to tender contracts to pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players which will add an influx of non-tendered players to the free agency pool.

Ahead we've provided all the pertinent information on these early offseason transactions, along with a wide variety of predictions.

Nov. 6: Deadline for all club, player and mutual contract options to either be exercised or declined. Players whose options are declined will immediately join the free-agent pool.

Nov. 6: Deadline for teams to extend qualifying offers to eligible free agents. Teams have a five-day exclusive negotiating window after the conclusion of the World Series with their own free agents before they officially hit the open market.

Nov. 7-9: The annual GM Meetings will be held. These meetings often produce some early rumors and lay the groundwork for deals to be made later in the offseason. The official vote for the Oakland Athletics' relocation to Las Vegas will be held at this year's GM Meetings.

Nov. 14: Deadline for players who received a qualifying offer to accept or reject. We'll dive into the ins and outs of the qualifying offer more in a bit.

Nov. 17: Deadline for teams to tender a contract to arbitration-eligible players for the upcoming season. Any player not tendered a contract or "non-tendered" by this date will join the free-agent pool. Cody Bellinger and Jeimer Candelario were among the notable non-tenders last offseason.

Dec. 4--7: The annual Winter Meetings will be held. This four-day window is often a flurry of activity in free agency and on the trade market, and also features the Rule 5 draft.

Club Options

OF Mark Canha, MIL ($11.5 million)
SP Alex Cobb, SF ($10 million)
C Yan Gomes, CHC ($6 million)
OF Max Kepler, MIN ($10 million)
RP Jose Leclerc, TEX ($6.5 million)
SP Charlie Morton, ATL ($20 million)
RP Brooks Raley, NYM ($6.5 million) confirmed by Jon Heyman of the New York Post on Friday.

The biggest question mark here is whether Charlie Morton, who turns 40 years old later this month, intends to pitch for another year or if he is headed for retirement. He finished 14-12 with a 3.64 ERA and 183 strikeouts in 163.1 innings, but he dealt with a finger injury down the stretch.

Player Options

DH Matt Carpenter, SD ($5.5 million)
C Omar Narváez, NYM ($7 million)
RP Adam Ottavino, NYM ($6.75 million)

Matt Carpenter and Omar Narváez won't be able to top their player-option figures in free agency, but don't be surprised if their teams just eat their remaining salary commitments and release them. Veteran setup man Adam Ottavino has already expressed that he intends to exercise his player option and return to the Mets in 2024.

Club Options

RP Matt Barnes, MIA ($8 million)
RP Andrew Chafin, MIL ($7.25 million)
SP Johnny Cueto, MIA ($10.5 million)
IF Eduardo Escobar, LAA ($9 million)
RP Jarlin García, PIT ($3.5 million)
RP Liam Hendricks, CWS ($15 million)
RP Daniel Hudson, LAD ($6.5 million)
RP Joe Kelly, LAD ($9.5 million)
SP Corey Kluber, BOS ($11 million)
RP Aaron Loup, LAA ($7.5 million)
SP Lance Lynn, LAD ($18 million) confirmed by Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic on Friday.
RP Collin McHugh, ATL ($6 million)
RP Alex Reyes, LAD ($3 million)
RP Joely Rodríguez, BOS ($4.25 million)
1B Joey Votto, CIN ($20 million)
RP Justin Wilson, MIL ($2.5 million)
RP Kirby Yates, ATL ($5.75 million)

Most of these players have small buyouts in the $1-2 million range or no buyout at all, but the Cincinnati Reds will have to shell out $7 million if they reject their $20 million club option on veteran Joey Votto as expected.

Player Options

SP Seth Lugo, SD ($7.5 million)
RP Héctor Neris, HOU ($8.5 million)

Seth Lugo (26 GS, 3.57 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 140 K, 146.1 IP) and Héctor Neris (71 G, 31 HLD, 1.71 ERA, 10.1 K/9) both pitched well enough in 2024 that they should both be able to secure a lucrative multiyear deal if they decline their modest player options.

Mutual Options

1B Cody Bellinger, CHC ($12 million — declined by player)
RP Brad Boxberger, CHC ($5 million — declined by team)
C Curt Casali, CIN ($4 million — declined by team)
SP Mike Clevinger, CWS ($12 million — declined by player)
RP Brad Hand, ATL ($7 million — declined by team)
RP Mark Melancon, ARI ($5 million — declined by team)
2B Whit Merrifield, TOR ($18 million — declined by team)
SP Wade Miley, MIL ($10 million — declined by player)

Mutual options are almost always declined by one of the sides, and this year will likely be no exception. A one-year, $10 million deal is roughly what Wade Miley can expect to find on the free-agent market, so he is the most likely candidate to be back if Milwaukee doesn't decide to blow up the roster.

SS Tim Anderson, CWS — $14 million club option

Anderson hit .245/.286/.296 for a 60 OPS+ that ranked dead last among the 134 hitters who tallied enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title in 2023. The 30-year-old hit .318/.347/.474 and was a two-time All-Star over the four seasons prior, and a White Sox team at a crossroad will now need to decide whether to cut tires with its longest-tenured player.

Prediction: Declined

RHP Kyle Hendricks, CHC — $16 million club option

Hendricks struggled to a 4.80 ERA in 16 starts during the 2022 season before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury that sidelined him into the 2023 campaign. Once he finally returned to action in late May, he pitched well with a 3.74 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 137 innings. His $16 million option is a little steep, but declining it and re-upping on a new two-year, $25 million deal could be a solid compromise for both sides.

Prediction: Declined, signs new multiyear deal

2B Jorge Polanco, MIN — $10.5 million club option

The emergence of Edouard Julien and Royce Lewis alongside shortstop Carlos Correa has given the Twins an abundance of infield options. Polanco has posted a 120 OPS+ while averaging 30 home runs and 4.4 WAR per 162 games over the past three seasons, making his $10.5 million club option a reasonable figure. Expect his option to be exercised, even if he is not part of the team's 2024 plans.

Prediction: Exercised, then traded

OF Eddie Rosario, ATL — $9 million club option

After a brutal 2022 season, Rosario bounced back to post a 100 OPS+ with 24 doubles, 21 home runs and 73 RBI in 142 games. That's probably worth $9 million, but an Atlanta team focused on title contention could aim a bit higher and pursue an outside addition. This one is truly a 50/50 coin toss at this point.

Prediction: Exercised

DH/3B Justin Turner, BOS — $13.4 million player option

A hefty $6.7 million buyout means Turner only needs to find a $6.8 million contract on his next deal for declining his player option to be a net positive in terms of earning power. The 38-year-old posted a 114 OPS+ with 31 doubles, 23 home runs and 96 RBI, so that shouldn't be difficult.

Prediction: Declined

Opt-Out

LHP Eduardo Rodriguez, DET
OF Jorge Soler, MIA

When Eduardo Rodriguez vetoed a trade to the Los Angeles Dodgers at the deadline, it fueled some immediate speculation that he might opt-in for the final three years and $49 million of his contract with the Detroit Tigers. However, the expectation is now that he will opt out and hit the open market. Slugger Jorge Soler could potentially double the $9 million salary he would earn in 2024 if he opted in following an All-Star season.

Opt-In

SS Javier Báez, DET
SP Drew Smyly, CHC
SP Ross Stripling, SF

Javier Báez (four years, $98 million remaining) and Ross Stripling (one year, $15 million remaining) did not play well enough in 2023 to even consider opting out of their contracts. Drew Smyly triggered an opt-out clause by topping 100 innings in 2023, but after posting a 5.00 ERA and 1.43 WHIP he would have a tough time eclipsing the $8.5 million salary he will receive if he opts in.

1B Josh Bell, CLE — One year, $16.5 million remaining

It might seem far fetched to think Bell would turn down $16.5 million after posting a 104 OPS+ with 22 home runs and 74 RBI last season, but his numbers picked up after he was traded to the Miami Marlins at the deadline and a thin free-agent market for power bats could play to his benefit.

Prediction: Opt out

OF Michael Conforto, SF — One year, $18 million remaining

After missing the entire 2022 season, Conforto signed a short-term deal last offseason in hopes of rebuilding his stock. The 30-year-old posted a 99 OPS+ with 15 home runs and 58 RBI in 125 games while shaking off the rust in 2023, and now his best move appears to be opting in and hoping to improve on those numbers for a better profile next winter.

Prediction: Opt in

SP Andrew Heaney, TEX — One year, $13 million remaining

Heaney helped his cause with five innings of four-hit, one-run ball in Game 4 of the World Series, and he should be able to use a solid overall 2023 campaign to land another multiyear deal for a similar annual value.

Prediction: Opt out

SP Sean Manaea, SF — One year, $15 million remaining

Manaea had better numbers as a reliever (27 G, 4.18 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 10.4 K/9) than he did as a starter (10 GS, 4.82 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 8.9 K/9) in his first season with the Giants, but if he prefers to pitch in the rotation and that's not something the Giants are willing to guarantee he could choose to opt out.

Prediction: Opt out

SP Marcus Stroman, CHC — One year, $21 million remaining

Stroman looked like a no-brainer to opt-out when he posted a 2.88 ERA over his first 20 starts, but he was absolutely shelled over his next three outings before missing the entire month of August with a rib cage fracture and then returning in a relief role down the stretch. His track record could still put him in position for a sizable contract, but it's hard to see him topping a $21 million AAV in 2024 on the open market.

Prediction: Opt in

What is a qualifying offer?

A qualifying offer is a one-year contract that teams can offer to their pending free agents whose value is equivalent to the average salary of the league's 125 highest-paid players. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to the team on a one-year deal. If the player rejects the offer, he becomes a free agent and his former team is eligible to receive draft pick compensation when he signs with another team.

Can anyone receive a qualifying offer?

Players who were traded during the season are not eligible to receive a qualifying offer. Players can also only be extended a qualifying offer once in their careers, as the accompanying draft pick compensation can sometimes have a negative impact on a player's free-agent market.

How much is the qualifying offer worth this offseason?

$20.325 million

How often do players accept the qualifying offer?

For most of the free agents who receive the qualifying offer, rejecting it in favor of a lucrative multiyear deal in free agency is an easy decision, but there are always a handful of candidates to potentially accept. Martín Pérez (TEX) and Joc Pederson (SF) both accepted their qualifying offers last offseason, while 12 others rejected.

Locks

1B/OF Cody Bellinger, CHC
3B Matt Chapman, TOR
SP Sonny Gray, MIN
RP Josh Hader, SD
SP Aaron Nola, PHI
DH/SP Shohei Ohtani, LAA
SP Blake Snell, SD

50/50

OF Teoscar Hernandez, SEA
1B Rhys Hoskins, PHI
DH J.D. Martinez, LAD
OF Jorge Soler, MIA

Longshots

C Mitch Garver, TEX
OF Kevin Kiermaier, TOR

The most likely candidate to both receive a qualifying offer and accept it this offseason is Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Rhys Hoskins. The 30-year-old posted a 123 OPS+ with 30 home runs during the 2022 season, but he missed the entire 2023 campaign after suffering a torn ACL in spring training. Returning on a one-year deal would give him an opportunity to rebuild his stock.

The deadline for teams to decide whether they will tender a contract to players under team control for the 2024 season is Nov. 17. That's when teams decide whether they want to retain pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players. Also known as the "non-tender deadline," it will add an influx of additional players to the free agency pool.

SS Jorge Mateo, BAL — $2.9 million projected salary

Mateo was a 3.4-WAR player in 2022 when he tallied 13 home runs and 35 steals while providing quality defense at shortstop. The rise of prospects Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg cut into his playing time and his numbers dipped across the board, but he could generate some trade interest in a thin shortstop market. If he's not traded, a non-tender seems likely.

OF Austin Meadows, DET — $4.3 million projected salary

Meadows had a 115 OPS+ with 27 home runs and 106 RBI with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2021 before he was traded to Detroit in an ill-fated swap that sent Isaac Paredes the other way. Injuries have limited the 2019 All-Star to just 42 games the last two seasons, making it difficult to justify his high salary figure to count on him to fill a regular role.

IF/OF Nick Senzel, CIN — $3 million projected salary

The No. 2 overall pick in the 2016 draft, Senzel has tallied minus-1.8 WAR in parts of five seasons at the MLB level. The 28-year-old slugged 13 home runs in 330 plate appearances while playing five different positions, but he hit just .239/.297/.399 for an 85 OPS+ and the wealth of young position player talent that has arrived on the scene in Cincinnati makes him a prime change-of-scenery candidate.

The deadline for teams to decide whether they will tender a contract to players under team control for the 2024 season is Nov. 17. That's when teams decide whether they want to retain pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players. Also known as the "non-tender deadline," it will add an influx of additional players to the free agency pool.

SP Dakota Hudson, STL — $3.7 million projected salary

Hudson had a 3.35 ERA in 174.2 innings to finish fifth in NL Rookie of the Year voting during the 2019 season, but he has failed to duplicate that level of success in the years since while bouncing between the rotation, bullpen, injured list and minor leagues. The Cardinals need to completely overhaul their pitching staff this offseason.

SP Michael Soroka, ATL — $3 million projected salary

After making just three total starts over the previous three seasons, Soroka had a tough time shaking off the rust in 2023 with a 6.40 ERA in 32.1 innings in the majors. The 26-year-old had a 3.41 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 92 strikeouts in 87 innings at Triple-A and he still offers some intriguing upside given his age, but he is out of minor-league options and the Braves can't rely on him to hold down a spot in the rotation. He could be traded before he is non-tendered.

SP Brandon Woodruff, MIL — $11.6 million projected salary

Woodruff was a surprise omission from Milwaukee's playoff roster with a shoulder injury that ultimately required surgery that is expected to sideline him for the bulk of the 2024 season. With one year of arbitration control remaining, paying him $11.6 million to sit on the sidelines and then depart in free agency doesn't make any sense for the Brewers. Perhaps they can come to terms on a new two-year deal that would allow him to rehab with the organization in 2024 and they make his case for a big contract in 2025.