Way-Too-Early 2023-24 Men's College Basketball NPOY Rankings

Zach Edey is the reigning men's college basketball National Player of the Year, and he is already in great position to become an exceptionally rare repeat recipient of that honor.

You're probably thinking it's way too early in the year to be talking about NPOY.

However, not only did Nos. 1, 2, 4, 7 and 9 in our way-too-early rankings from last mid-December end up being the five finalists for the Wooden Award, but Nos. 3, 11, 14, 16 and 19 from that early ranking were also the other five guys on the award's 10-player All-American team.

I don't point that out to pat myself on the back for recognizing Zach Edey's breakout was real, but rather as evidence that while not all of the current top players will necessarily finish the season in the mix for NPOY, it's hard to surge into that mix if you haven't already made a big impression by now.

Take Tyler Kolek, for example. He's a clear top-five NPOY candidate in our eyes. But last year, he entered the NCAA tournament averaging 18.1 points and 7.3 assists over his final 16 games for a team that earned a No. 2 seed, and even that wasn't enough for him to overcome what was a comparatively slow start and he failed to crack the All-American team.

So, after a little over five weeks, who are the top candidates?

Players are ranked on a combination of overall individual production/efficiency and team success—the latter playing a key role, as the NPOY has almost always come from a team that earns a No. 4 seed or better in the NCAA tournament.

Statistics current through start of play on Tuesday, Dec. 12.

Donovan Clingan (Connecticut)
RJ Davis (North Carolina)
Kevin McCullar Jr. (Kansas)

Viable candidates putting up big numbers, but teammates of players who rank in our top seven.

Jamal Shead (Houston)
Ryan Dunn (Virginia)

Defensive wizards and glue-guy extraordinaires, but hard to take seriously for NPOY when under 10 PPG.

Johni Broome (Auburn)
Jaedon LeDee (San Diego State)
Wade Tayler IV (Texas A&M)
Tyson Walker (Michigan State)

All-American level early production (especially from LeDee), but are the teams good enough to produce NPOY?

Kylan Boswell (Arizona)
Vladislav Goldin (Florida Atlantic)
Ryan Nembhard (Gonzaga)

Very close calls, and not simply because someone from each of these contenders must be considered.

Max Abmas (Texas)
Dalton Knecht (Tennessee)
Baylor Scheierman (Creighton)
Boogie Ellis (USC)

Bucket-getting nightly threats for a 40-burger who have each had one early dud in a loss.

2023-24 Stats: 28.4 MPG, 14.2 PPG, 6.6 APG, 4.0 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 44% 3PT

Maybe teammate Ja'Kobe Walter ends up being the better candidate here, as the freshman sensation will inevitably receive a ton of attention in the wide-open race for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NBA draft.

But it's the fifth-year point guard who previously played for both Boise State and Toledo who has the undefeated Bears operating as a well-oiled machine in spite of all they lost from last season.

Dennis' turnover rate (5.0 per 40 minutes) is more than a bit concerning. However, since a tough debut against Auburn (two assists against seven turnovers), he has racked up more than twice as many dimes (57) as giveaways (25) and been the driving force behind Baylor's six-pronged attack of double-digit scorers.

He has nearly 40 percent of Baylor's assists on the year, leading the team in that department by a country mile. He's also leading the team in steals, and he is just a couple of buckets behind Walter for the team lead in scoring, shooting 54 percent from the field, 44 percent from distance and 87 percent from the free-throw line.

Dennis went for 24 points with eight assists, four rebounds and three steals in the quality win over Florida and has tallied at least six assists in six consecutive games.

Upcoming games against Michigan State and Duke will be big opportunities for him to show what he can do with plenty of eyes watching.

If he outduels Tyson Walker in that head-to-head matchup and ends up being more valuable than Kyle Filipowski in a Madison Square Garden win over the Blue Devils, Dennis could be a clear-cut top-five NPOY candidate by Christmas.

2023-24 Stats: 26.7 MPG, 13.0 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 3.8 APG, 3.0 SPG, 0.9 BPG, 59% 3PT

Our first batch of rankings for Freshman of the Year will run sometime next week, but consider this a spoiler alert about who is running away with the top spot on the list.

Reed Sheppard didn't make his first start at Kentucky until Dec. 2, and even that only happened because DJ Wagner was unavailable for that inexplicable loss to UNC-Wilmington. (Sheppard came off the bench again in Saturday's win over Penn.)

It certainly wasn't the 19-year-old's fault the Wildcats lost to UNC-W, though. He went for 25 points, nine rebounds, six assists and two steals, leading the team in all four categories while trying to heroically carry them to the finish line.

Sheppard was also Kentucky's brightest star in the prior statement victory over Miami.

This phenom has emerged not just as one of the purest shooters in the country—he had his first miss from the free-throw line Saturday and sure feels close to perfect from the field—but also as maybe the best ball-hawking defender in the country, boasting multiple steals in every game to date.

Sheppard is also playing a huge role in Kentucky boasting one of the best assist-to-turnover ratios with a 34-to-12 ratio of his own.

2023-24 Stats: 29.1 MPG, 15.9 PPG, 11.9 RPG, 1.9 BPG, 1.4 APG

The double-double machine is back at it again.

Armando Bacot averaged 16.3 points and 13.1 rebounds during the 2021-22 campaign, saving some of his best work for North Carolina's run to the national championship game.

He wasn't quite as prolific on the glass last year, but he still went for 15.9 points and 10.4 rebounds on a nightly basis.

And now he's well on his way to a third consecutive season averaging at least 15 and 10.

If he pulls it off, he wouldn't be the first. Heck, Louisiana's Shawn Long averaged at least 15 and 10 in all four of his seasons played, as did Boston University's Tunji Awojobi in the mid-1990s.

But if he does it and the Tar Heels actually finish a season ranked in the AP Top 25 for what would be the first time since 2019, then it becomes an NPOY-worthy conversation.

Bacot was excellent in defeat against Connecticut last Tuesday. Not only did he finish with 13 points, 13 rebounds and five assists, but he also neutralized Donovan Clingan (8 points, 4 rebounds) to at least give the Tar Heels a chance. He also put up 22 points, 11 rebounds and three dimes in the big win over Tennessee.

We'll see if Bacot can even ward off his own teammate in this NPOY conversation, though, as RJ Davis has scored at least 23 points in five consecutive games and appears to have made a Buddy Hield-ish senior-year leap.

2023-24 Stats: 28.6 MPG, 18.4 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.9 BPG, 1.2 SPG, 32% 3PT

Duke has disappointed in a big way through the first month of the regular season, but at least "Flip" has been every bit as good as he was toward the end of last year.

After undergoing offseason surgery on both of his hips, he has been more explosive. His block rate is more than double what it was in 2022-23, and he is putting in both more work and more efficient work in the paint for a significantly improved field-goal percentage.

Even in Duke's losses, Filipowski has been mostly great, with a combined line of 63 points, 27 rebounds, six assists, six blocks, five steals and just three turnovers in those three games. The Blue Devils could have benefited from a little more aggressiveness from him in the loss to Georgia Tech (nine field-goal attempts in 35 minutes), but he gave them great efforts in the losses to Arizona and Arkansas.

Prior to a five-point (but 13-rebound) game against Charlotte on Saturday, the 20-year-old had scored in double figures in each game thus far, entering that game with both the third-best betting odds for NPOY and the third-best rating in the KenPom Player of the Year standings.

However, we have him a bit outside our top five on account of Duke's early struggles. That isn't to say the Blue Devils are already out of the running for a top-four seed in the NCAA tournament, but they certainly have some work to do.

If Filipowski has a huge night in a win over Baylor next Wednesday, that would get him more legitimately back into the mix.

2023-24 Stats: 28.3 MPG, 20.1 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 2.6 APG, 2.3 BPG, 1.0 SPG, 41% 3PT

If you're a fan of dudes who can just fill up the stat sheet as the leader of a team that's much better than expected, PJ Hall is most definitely your dude.

He had been solid over the past two seasons, averaging a little over 15 points and five rebounds each year. But he wasn't anywhere near this dominant, nor was Clemson anywhere near this relevant, missing the dance in both 2022 and 2023.

Now, this stretch-5 is the driving force of a Tigers team that just might mess around and win the ACC.

In the impressive road win over Alabama that put Clemson legitimately on the radar, Hall went for 21 points, eight rebounds and four blocks—this despite being limited to just 21 minutes because of foul trouble. (Frequent foul trouble is about the only negative thing you can say about him at this point.)

Hall subsequently racked up 22 points, 11 rebounds, three assists and three steals in leading Clemson to victory in its ACC opener at Pittsburgh.

Already this season, he has had seven games with at least each of the following: 17 points, five rebounds, two assists, two made threes and a combined total of at least two blocks/steals. I don't know if he'll ever have one of those 30-point, 16-rebound types of performances that Zach Edey and Oscar Tshiebwe almost routinely managed while winning their NPOYs, but Hall's DNA is splattered all over Clemson's great start.

It's unlikely the Tigers will get enough national attention for Hall to seriously rival Edey here, but he is well on his way to getting some serious looks for first-team All-American—not just in the ACC; in the country.

2023-24 Stats: 32.2 MPG, 21.7 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.0 SPG, 42% 3PT

With at least 15 points scored in each game thus far, Terrence Shannon Jr. has re-surfaced as a certified problem.

His 21 points weren't quite enough to get what would have been a huge early win over Marquette, nor did his 22 points carry Illinois to victory at Tennessee this past weekend. But his 23 points, 10 rebounds and three assists did play a huge role in Illinois destroying Rutgers in New Jersey in that Big Ten opener.

Three days later, Shannon lit up Florida Atlantic for a career-high 33 points in the Jimmy V Classic, further cementing himself as one of the best scorers in the nation.

Not only is he leading the Volunteers in scoring by a margin of more than 10 points per game, but he has also been their primary source of both assists and steals.

But can he and Illinois keep it going for the full season this time around?

Shannon was No. 10 in our initial NPOY rankings last season, but he wasn't anywhere near the same impact player the rest of the way, shooting just 29 percent from distance while the Illini plummeted toward the bubble.

By the end of the year, he wasn't even named to the six-man All-Big Ten first team by the media, let alone a finalist for NPOY.

But if Shannon keeps playing like this while Illinois emerges as the second fiddle to Purdue—or even wins there early next month—he'll be a solid Wooden Award candidate.

2023-24 Stats: 30.2 MPG, 15.3 PPG, 5.5 APG, 5.3 RPG, 1.7 SPG, 45% 3PT

Over the latter half of last season, Tyler Kolek developed a killer instinct.

Through Marquette's first 18 games of 2022-23, he had averaged 9.0 points and 8.0 assists per game. He barely even looked to call his own number with just 7.2 field-goal attempts per game. But in their final 18 games, Kolek averaged 12.3 shots and 16.9 points per game—while still dishing out seven dimes per contest.

Basically, he flipped a switch in mid-January and transformed from second-year Kendall Marshall into third/fourth-year Kris Dunn—both of whom were great players and eventual lottery picks, but only the latter was a consensus All-American.

And thus far, Kolek is back in his bag of tricks, putting on a show on a regular basis.

He wasn't at his best in Marquette's big win over Kansas, finishing that one with a modest-but-still-impressive line of six points, five steals, four assists, and four rebounds with four turnovers.

But he was excellent in the win at Illinois (24 points, six rebounds, four assists), great in the Maui Invitational opening win over UCLA (nine points, nine assists, five rebounds), pretty fantastic in the Maui championship against Purdue (22 points, seven rebounds, six assists) and a damn magician last week in the blowout victory over Texas (28 points, eight rebounds, six assists, three steals).

I keep hearing it's the second consecutive year of the big man, but this 6'3" point guard has Marquette looking better than it has been in more than four decades.

Both the AP and NABC had Kolek as a third-team All-American last season while both Sporting News and the USBWA named him to the second team. The only other player who was named a top-15 player by all four publications and returned for another season was Zach Edey. And there's no question Kolek has been even better than last season.

2023-24 Stats: 31.4 MPG, 17.0 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 6.1 APG, 1.5 SPG, 35% 3PT

As great as Tyler Kolek is and has been, the Big East point guard most likely to stop Zach Edey from repeating as NPOY is the one from the reigning national champ who is putting up even more impressive numbers than Kolek.

Tristen Newton has been sensational thus far, particularly late in the shot clock earlier this month at Kansas. Connecticut ended up falling just short in that game, but he scored 31 of its 65 points, repeatedly delivering gut punches to the Jayhawks with his dagger threes.

He had a triple-double against Manhattan (15 points, 13 assists, 10 rebounds) and came somewhat close to doing the same against both Indiana (23 points, 11 rebounds, six assists) and New Hampshire (17 points, 10 rebounds, seven assists). This after he had a pair of triple-doubles last season.

Through 10 games, Newton was averaging at least 17 points, seven rebounds and six assists per game. Were he to finish the year at or above each of those thresholds, he would join 2022-23 Jalen Pickett and 2015-16 Denzel Valentine as the only players to average 17-7-6 for a season in the past three decades.

And while it technically shouldn't factor into his 2023-24 NPOY odds, we all remember Newton's impressive performance in last year's national championship.

At the end of the day, NPOY is a popularity contest, and that memory of yesteryear won't hurt his chances, especially if Connecticut remains a serious threat to repeat as champion.

2023-24 Stats: 31.3 MPG, 19.4 PPG, 12.6 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.3 BPG, 1.3 SPG, 58% 3PT

It appears Hunter Dickinson has reached his fully-evolved form.

He was a consensus All-American as a freshman and got even better (though, Michigan got worse) over his next two seasons. And now he is an unstoppable force, on track to obliterate his previous career highs for rebounds, steals and made three-pointers in a single season.

Sure, Kentucky was playing without any of its seven-footers, but 27 points, 21 rebounds and three steals against a title contender on a neutral court was a laughably good performance by Dickinson. Same goes for the 17 points and 20 rebounds he had against Tennessee in leading the Jayhawks to victory in the third-place game of the Maui Invitational.

He has yet to record fewer than 13 points or eight rebounds in a game, anchoring what is a championship-caliber team, even with a bit of a question mark at point guard and a massive unknown at shooting guard.

But, hey, when your 7'2" center is making nearly 60 percent of his three-point attempts, who needs a shooting guard?

And there is no question Dickinson won the big man head-to-head battle with Connecticut's Donovan Clingan on Dec. 1, going for 15 points, nine rebounds and four blocks—while Clingan settled for eight, seven and three, respectively, in a losing effort.

We'll see if his villainous persona helps or hurts his NPOY potential as the season progresses, but Dickinson certainly has a Marshall Henderson sort of swagger and lightning rod for attention.

2023-24 Stats: 29.2 MPG, 24.8 PPG, 10.8 RPG, 2.6 BPG, 1.2 APG

We saw last year with Oscar Tshiebwe how tough it is to repeat as National Player of the Year in men's college hoops.

Granted, that had more to do with Kentucky entering the NCAA tournament with 11 losses and a No. 6 seed than it did some substantial fall from grace by 'Big O,' but he wasn't even named one of the five finalists for the Wooden Award despite averaging 16.5 points and 13.7 rebounds per game—compared to 17.4 and 15.1, respectively, when he was named NPOY.

So far, though, there hasn't been any similar slippage from Zach Edey or Purdue, as it looks like the Boilermakers' 7'4" center is gearing up to run away with all of the trophies once again while playing for a possible No. 1 seed.

Even in Purdue's loss to Northwestern, it's not like the Wildcats had an answer for Edey, who finished with 35 points, 14 rebounds and three blocks. They just managed to attack the Boilermakers' weaknesses while he fouled out their entire frontcourt.

Edey could have padded his stats against Samford, Morehead State and Texas Southern, but Purdue opted to limit his impact in those games, knowing it would be using him a ton against quality opponents. And in each of his first six games against KenPom top-100 foes, he tallied at least 23 points and 10 rebounds. (In the seventh such game, he had 35 points with just seven rebounds against Alabama this past Saturday.)

He averaged 25.3 points, 13.0 rebounds and 2.0 blocks as the Boilermakers went through Gonzaga, Tennessee and Marquette to win the Maui Invitational.

There's plenty of season left to be played, so we can't etch Edey's name (for a second time) into any hardware just yet. But after a little over a month of action, NPOY is certainly his to lose.