2022 NBA Re-Draft: Chet Holmgren and Paolo Banchero Both in the Mix for No. 1

Every NBA draft is met with instant analysis, grades and other reactions, but much of it ignores a pretty important fact: None of us really knows in the moment who'll be good and who won't.

Even a year later, definitives about the 2022 class are premature, but we now have a more robust sample to draw from.

With the benefit of 12-plus months of evidence, we can re-draft with more confidence in all of the players below than we had in 2022.

Placements can also be affected by changing philosophies about the game. Skill at all five positions is more important than it's ever been. Size at guard and wing spots can be a huge advantage. Shooting remains vital.

With all of that in mind as well as statistics and plenty of time spent watching the players from this group, this is how the lottery should play out now if we assume the entire class is available and we're dealing with 14 generic teams (rather than the order from 2022).

Before we dive into the lottery, though, let's look at a handful of players who nearly made the cut, in no particular order.

• Mark Williams looks like he could develop into a high-end rim-protector and -runner, but his ceiling is probably limited by a lack of variety in his game and the fact that most of his looks have to be generated by teammates.
• The "Jeremy Sochan can play point guard" experiment couldn't be going much worse, but there's still reason to buy in on his upside as an energy guy who can bother opponents with his length and defense.
• There may be a chance Jaden Hardy eventually develops into a heat-check scorer off the bench, but sometimes-questionable shot selection and lack of impact on defense are keeping him out of the lottery for now.
• Ousmane Dieng could have plenty of untapped upside. He's 6'10", only 20 years old and has shown flashes of playmaking ability. But his game is still pretty raw, and his physical tools aren't translating to the defensive end yet.
• Shooting is the most important skill in basketball, and AJ Griffin hit 39.0 percent of his threes as a rookie. But his lack of ancillary and defensive contributions have kept him out of the Atlanta Hawks' rotation this season.

There are probably others who deserve a mention, such as Andrew Nembhard, Ochai Agbaji and Max Christie, but it's time to dive into the lottery.

Originally Picked 21st

There aren't many players who establish and maintain a meaningful role on a title-winning team in their first season, but that's exactly what Christian Braun did in 2022-23.

He forced his way into Michael Malone's rotation with hustle and defense, but he made his presence felt as a cutter and finisher as deep into the postseason and the Finals, particularly when he scored 15 in a road win over the Miami Heat.

In Year 2, Denver's entrusted him with a little more responsibility on both ends of the floor, and he's generally looked better in the expanded role.

On the season, he's averaging 8.6 points, 3.8 rebounds and 1.8 assists while shooting 38.5 percent from three in 20.2 minutes.

Neither those numbers nor the eye test suggest he'll turn into a star anytime soon, but he can be a high-end gap filler, point-of-attack defender and catch-and-shoot threat.

Originally Picked 30th

There's less evidence to analyze with Peyton Watson than there is with Braun. The former barely saw the floor as a rookie, while his teammate logged 1,428 regular and postseason minutes and probably established himself as the safer pick.

But the upside crowd has to be excited about what it's seen from Watson this season. He has high-end athleticism, a wingspan over seven feet long and the defensive instincts of a 10-year veteran. His timing and explosiveness as a weakside shot-blocker is particularly impressive.

In recent weeks, he's settled in enough as a shooters and opportunistic closeout driver to seemingly push past Braun in Denver's rotation.

In his past five games, Watson is averaging 12.2 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 1.6 threes in 20.3 minutes. It's suddenly pretty easy to see why he was a top-10 recruit in his high school class.

Originally Picked 6th

An increased assist rate and three-point percentage are encouraging, but there's a reason Bennedict Mathurin has slid from his top-six status in the real draft.

The Indiana Pacers are worse on both the offensive and defensive ends when he's on the floor. He shoots too many twos outside the restricted area and has a way-below-average two-point percentage. He also doesn't offer much deterrence as an on- or off-ball defender.

But he's only 21 years old and has averaged 16.0 points in his young career. His 6'9" wingspan gives him good size for a guard. At the very least, he looks like he could be a solid heat-check scorer off the bench.

Originally Picked 17th

Over his season and change in the NBA, Tari Eason has looked like the consummate energy guy on the wing for the Houston Rockets.

In just 21.5 minutes, he's averaging 9.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.1 steals and 0.6 blocks, but those raw averages don't quite do his game justice.

Eason has a career 11.7 offensive rebounding percentage, a 2.9 block percentage and a 2.6 steal percentage. Centers Andre Drummond and Paul Reed are the only players in the league who match or exceed all three marks in the same span.

Scoring is nice, but all those extra possessions Eason generates go a long way, and teams need players who can impact the game without taking a ton of shots.

A little more creation and volume might be nice from a "how high can you draft him?" perspective, but Eason has shown more than enough to justify rising from 17th to 11th.

Originally Picked 5th

This one takes a bit of a leap of faith.

Jaden Ivey has been way below average in estimated plus-minus (one of the most trusted catch-all metrics in NBA front offices) in each of his first two seasons. He's barely clung to a rotation spot for the spiraling Detroit Pistons this season, and he's given little to no indication he can shoot in the NBA.

But a 6'10" wingspan and top-flight athleticism are intoxicating traits for a point guard. He can get to the paint against just about any matchup. Someone just needs to help him discover what to do once he gets there.

Whether that happens in Detroit or elsewhere, it's way too early to decide it won't happen at all.

Ivey turns 22 in February. There's time for him to figure out how to change pace a bit more. There's time to fine-tune his shot selection and help him make NBA-level defensive rotations.

To an extent, all of that is teachable. The physical traits Ivey brings to the position aren't.

Originally Picked 8th

Australia has produced plenty of playmaking potential in wing-sized bodies in recent years, including Dante Exum, Ben Simmons and Josh Giddey. And now the New Orleans Pelicans have the next flag-bearer in Dyson Daniels (who has a 6'11" wingspan).

On a team with as much depth as New Orleans, Daniels hasn't had as many opportunities to showcase his talent as those others did early on, but he's shown enough to suggest he can be a difference-making creator and point-of-attack defender.

There are only 13 players in the league who've matched or exceeded both of Dyson's career marks for assist percentage and steal percentage since the start of 2022-23.

He just has the same possible shortcoming as those other Aussie distributors in that he may be unselfish to a fault. A career 29.0 three-point percentage is concerning, too.

A little more aggression and a more consistent shot added to his already intriguing physical profile could make him a borderline star.

Originally Picked 22nd

He's sort of plateaued this season, but Walker Kessler was far better than expected as a rookie.

His sheer size (7'0" with a 7'6" wingspan) and instincts as a rim-protector make him one of the game's biggest deterrents. Already. He was in the 87th percentile in defensive estimated plus-minus last season and in the 88th percentile now. For his career, he's averaging 5.2 defensive rebounds and 2.4 blocks in 23.5 minutes.

Even if he just sort of hangs out at that level defensively going forward, he's going to be an impactful player who'd probably start on a lot of teams.

If the 22-year-old can develop a little more touch from the free-throw line and more reliable footwork around the rim, he could become a borderline All-Star in the mold of the center he replaced for the Utah Jazz.

Originally Picked 13th

Jalen Duren is a little smaller than Kessler, and the defensive indicators aren't quite as strong for the Detroit Pistons center.

But he's 6'10", with a prime-Dwight Howard-like frame. He's an above-the-rim finisher, and he can take over games as a rebounder or rim-runner. During his second season, he's averaging 12.6 points and 10.9 rebounds in 28.9 minutes.

But what really elevates Duren above all but one of the centers in this class is his age (he just turned 20 in November) and the hints of playmaking he's shown.

A big man being even slightly less predictable when catching the ball on the roll to the rim can be a game-changer for an offense. Duren has more than doubled his assist average from 1.1 as a rookie to 2.5 in Year 2.

Originally Picked 7th

Advanced numbers may be screaming to stay away from Shaedon Sharpe, but it's certainly fine to take them with a grain of salt for someone his age.

Forget the well-below-average marks for estimated plus-minus in each of his first two seasons for a moment. Sharpe is only 20 years old. He has a seven-foot wingspan. His athleticism has led to some legitimately jaw-dropping finishes and defensive plays.

And the basic numbers in his second season have to at least be a little encouraging.

Sharpe is averaging 16.8 points, 3.3 assists, 3.2 free throws and 2.1 threes in 35.0 minutes for the rebuilding Portland Trail Blazers.

Originally Picked 4th

Keegan Murray checks a lot of the boxes as a three-and-D wing.

At 6'8" with a 6'11" wingspan, he has solid size and can play either forward spot. He's already figuring how to use that size to impact the game defensively (he's in the 96th percentile in defensive estimated plus-minus right now).

But the driving force behind his value is the volume and efficiency with which he takes threes, and his willingness to move without the ball and get open for those shots.

For his career, Murray is averaging 13.0 points and 2.6 threes while shooting 40.2 percent from deep.

At 23, he's a little older than the rest of the class, but having that level of floor-spacer in a forward spot can supercharge an offense.

Originally Picked 3rd

Jabari Smith Jr. spent much of the summer leading up to the 2022 draft being hyped up as the potential top pick. At seemingly the last moment, the Orlando Magic swerved and took Paolo Banchero, contributing to Smith's slide to No. 3. In this exercise, he's taken a make-believe step down to fourth.

But this latest move has more to do with the three players ahead of him than any shortcoming with Smith himself. All the traits that made him a potential target for the No. 1 spot are starting to shine through during his second season with the Houston Rockets.

He's 6'11" and has a reliable three-point stroke. That alone makes him intriguing as a floor spacer. But he's now starting to expand his offensive arsenal a bit, and he's more effectively using his size as a rebounder and multipositional defender.

This season, he's averaging 13.2 points, 8.8 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.6 threes and 0.9 blocks in 30.4 minutes while shooting 36.9 percent from deep for the vastly improved Houston Rockets.

At this point, the worst-case scenario for Smith is probably that he tops out as a high-end, gap-filling fourth or fifth starter.

Originally Picked 12th

Jalen Williams has quickly developed into a wrecking ball-like slasher who can typically go through defenses whenever he can't get around them.

He's not always set to crash, though. The ability to muscle his way to the hoop is only part of what's made him a dynamic weapon for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Williams also has craftiness and change-of-pace that takes others far longer to develop.

While his scoring is his best offensive asset, he's far from an unwilling passer.

In Year 2, Williams is averaging 17.0 points, 3.8 assists and 1.0 threes. He's also making 87.7 percent of his free-throw attempts, and as he figures out how to draw trips to the line a bit better, that kind of consistency will come in handy.

Williams is also already a solid perimeter defender. He may not compete for an All-Defense nod any time soon, but he competes on that end, uses his strength to keep opponents off balance and is usually pretty tuned into his team's rotations.

Originally Picked 2nd

This isn't fair.

The Oklahoma City Thunder already had Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and now it looks like they may have added two of the three best players from the 2022 draft to play alongside him.

When he, Williams and Chet Holmgren are all on the floor, OKC is plus-10.0 points per 100 possessions.

And the big man is a huge part of that mark.

Holmgren has proven more than capable enough as an outside shooter to force opposing defenders to cover him outside. That pulls bigs away from the paint and widens driving lanes for SGA and Williams.

He's also a decent and willing passer, which gives the other stars more catch-and-shoot opportunities to juice their efficiency.

Most importantly, though, he's already one of the game's best and most game-altering rim-protectors. Holmgren's instincts around the rim are honed like those of a 10-year vet. He rotates quicker than most 7'1" players across history, and he can shut down shots and lanes that were seemingly open in a heartbeat.

All of that has led to rookie averages of 17.2 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.7 blocks, 2.5 assists, 1.5 threes and 0.8 steals in 29.7 minutes while shooting 38.1 percent from deep and posting a top-10 estimated plus-minus.

Originally Picked 1st

Given the way Chet Holmgren has played to this point, there's a very real argument to elevate him to the top spot.

But 2022-23 Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero is holding on for now, thanks to what he's shown as a lead (or second lead) playmaker.

Finding the guy who makes everything run on offense can be tough. Finding it in a 6'10" frame like Banchero's is exceptionally rare.

Just a couple months into his second season, Banchero looks like that kind of player.

On a team with plenty of creation from the likes of Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs and Cole Anthony, Banchero is standing out with 20.7 points, 4.5 assists and 1.3 threes.

And one of his offensive weaknesses as a rookie may already be rectified. He's shooting 38.3 percent from deep this season (after making just 29.8 percent of those attempts in his first year).

While his defensive counting numbers may not leap off the screen, Banchero is at least a reliable cog in an Orlando Magic defense that's hovered around the top five all season.

A little over a year after he was the No. 1 pick in the draft, even with Holmgren exploding out of the gate this season, Banchero is still safe in this spot.