2023 NBA Re-Draft: Who Follows Victor Wembanyama?

Every NBA draft is met with instant analysis, grades and other reactions, but much of it ignores a pretty important fact: None of us really knows in the moment who'll be good and who won't.

So just six months later, definitives about the 2023 class are still premature. We do have a bit of a sample, though. Takes at least have a little evidence behind them now.

With the benefit of that evidence, we can re-draft with more confidence in all of the players below than we had in 2023 (though maybe not a ton more).

Placements can also be affected by philosophies about the game. Skill at all five positions is more important than it's ever been. Size at guard and wing spots can be a huge advantage. Shooting remains vital.

With all of that in mind along with statistics and plenty of time spent watching the players from this group, this is how the lottery should play out now if we assume the entire class is available and we're dealing with 14 generic teams (rather than the order from 2023).

Before we dive into the lottery, though, let's look at a handful of players who nearly made the cut, in no particular order.

• His three-point percentage is below average right now, but Julian Strawther has still forced his way into the Denver Nuggets' rotation with his willingness to get triples up in volume and jump into passing lanes.
• This may be too big of a drop for Jarace Walker, considering he hasn't really had a chance to prove himself in the NBA. Sliding outside the top 14 has more to do with the upside we've seen from others who haven't been relegated to the G League.
• Ditto for Taylor Hendricks.
• There aren't many rays of hope for the free-falling Detroit Pistons, but 6'2" Marcus Sasser averaging 7.9 points and 1.3 threes in 16.9 minutes while shooting 42.5 percent from deep is one.
• Cam Whitmore is basically in the same boat as Walker and Hendricks. In fact, he's appeared in fewer games for the Houston Rockets than either of those two. But his player archetype, athleticism and situation in Houston could have him playing more soon. Just last week, he had 14 points in 14 minutes against the Dallas Mavericks

There are probably others who deserve a mention, such as Kris Murray, Andre Jackson Jr. and Jett Howard, but it's time to dive into the lottery.

Originally Picked 57th

If Walker fell too far too quickly, it'd be pretty easy to argue the opposite for Trayce Jackson-Davis.

Based on the pre-draft analysis of TJD, he was a four-year college player who turns 24 in February and may have been a little undersized to play center in the NBA. Those things, at least in part, pushed him to the second-to-last pick in the draft (two second-rounders were forfeited in 2023).

The first knock may still have a little merit. There's a shorter runway between now and Jackson-Davis' prime than there is for most of the players picked ahead of him. But that certainly doesn't mean he's done improving, and he's already pretty thoroughly discrediting the other knock.

Per-possession or per-minute production doesn't always stay at the same level when a player gets a bigger role, and Jackson-Davis only recently cracked the Golden State Warriors' rotation, but he's top-100 in box plus/minus with averages of 15.1 points, 12.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 2.5 blocks and 1.0 steals per 75 possessions.

After a second straight double-double, coach Steve Kerr said Jackson-Davis' game reminds him of Andrew Bogut's. With his feel and unselfishness on offense and instincts on defense, it's easy to buy into the comparison.

Originally Picked 14th

As the New Orleans Pelicans got healthy, Jordan Hawkins slid into a much smaller role, but he showed serious upside as a catch-and-shoot threat earlier this season.

From November 4 through the 29th, Hawkins averaged 15.4 points and 3.1 threes while shooting 40.0 percent from three over 14 games. Near the beginning of that run, he had a career-high 31 against the Denver Nuggets.

While most of the excitement about his game has to do with Hawkins' off-ball movement and quick trigger off the catch, he's actually shown hints of playmaking ability too.

At 6'5" with a 6'7" wingspan, he might be a little small defensively against certain wings, but dedicated floor-spacers like this have had value for years.

Originally Picked 16th

When factoring in volume, very few scorers have been less efficient than Keyonte George this season.

On the season, he's shooting 40.7 percent on twos (against a league average of 54.0) and 32.0 percent on threes (when the league average is 36.6).

But his rise in the re-draft is still justified based on what he's shown as a playmaker (both for himself and others).

George has looked comfortable getting his own shot, and the 5.0 assists he's averaging are comfortably more than the 2.8 he posted in his lone season in college.

He'll eventually need to take better care of the ball and start converting more of those looks as a scorer, but the Utah Jazz should more confidence George's lead playmaker upside than they did before the season.

Originally Picked 6th

Anthony Black's basic numbers (5.0 points, 2.5 rebounds and 1.7 assists with a 31.4 three-point percentage) certainly don't jump off the screen, but he's shown beyond-his-years feel for the game in his limited minutes.

As a 6'7" playmaker, he opens up some defensive options for the Orlando Magic that a lot of teams don't have.

Wing size at the point guard spot makes switch-heavy schemes possible. It narrows (or sometimes even eliminates) passing lanes. Black's instincts contribute to both possibilities, and he already looks like a plus defender as a 19-year-old rookie.

The size helps Black see the floor well, too, but his offensive skills generally need a little more seasoning.

Originally Picked 10th

Cason Wallace averaged 4.3 assists as a freshman at Kentucky last season and is down to 1.5 per game (2.4 per 75 possessions).

But that shouldn't be too concerning. On a team with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Josh Giddey, his playmaking opportunities were almost certain to be limited.

To make up for it, Wallace has been an absolute deadeye shooter off the bench, averaging 7.0 points and 1.0 threes in 21.7 minutes while shooting a league-leading 48.2 percent from deep.

He also has decent steal and block rates for a 6'4" player. If he eventually finds his way into a role that lets him pilot more possessions—without suffering too much of a dip in the other areas—he'll be well worth this top-10 spot.

Originally Picked 7th

The Washington Wizards have been atrocious this season, but top-10 pick Bilal Coulibaly is giving fans reason to be optimistic.

Prior to the draft, his physical profile (6'7" with a 7'2" wingspan) and smooth athleticism were intriguing, but the finer points of the game were supposed to take him some time.

About a third of the way into his rookie campaign, Coulibaly is averaging 9.1 points and 1.2 threes and shooting 41.8 percent from three. He has a decent steal rate and has even shown the occasional hint of playmaking ability.

It's obviously way too early to project stardom, but for a team struggling as much as the Wizards, feeling confident Coulibaly will at least be an effective three-and-D role player is a win.

Originally Picked 12th

Another player who was supposed to be more of a project, Dereck Lively II already looks significantly more effective than he did as a freshman at Duke.

Of course, playing with Luka Dončić has certainly helped the 19-year-old big man, but he deserves some credit for making that a two-way street.

Lively has provided tons of energy and vertical gravity as a pick-and-roll roll man, averaging 8.9 points, 7.7 rebounds and 1.6 blocks in 25.3 minutes while shooting 73.4 percent from the field.

On the season, the Dallas Mavericks are plus-7.5 points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor with Luka and minus-7.6 when Luka plays without Lively.

Even in an NBA where skills like shooting and passing at all five positions is increasingly important, a rim-runner who magnifies his role can still have a massive impact.

Originally Picked 19th

It's early, but it looks like the Golden State Warriors got two late hits out of the 2023 draft. Trayce Jackson-Davis, as already noted, looks like a difference-maker on both ends, and 6'5" combo guard Brandin Podziemski has already forced his way into the starting five.

If you carve his first six appearances of the season off his numbers, Podziemski is averaging 10.3 points, 5.9 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.5 threes and 1.0 steals in just 26.8 minutes while shooting 39.3 percent from deep.

He does a little bit of everything on offense, including, perhaps most importantly, create for teammates, and his willingness to be one of those cliche "does all the little things" guys is having a real impact on the Warriors.

When he's on the floor, Golden State has a point differential around that of a 58-win team compared to one around that of a 36-win team when he's off.

Originally Picked 4th

An earlier version of this slideshow actually had Amen Thompson one spot ahead of the next player, but it's just tough to justify that placement with nothing but Overtime Elite footage and barely 100 NBA minutes when everyone ahead of him has solidified roles on their teams.

Still, Thompson's size (6'7" with a 7'0" wingspan) and tip-top-tier athleticism make him one of the more intriguing prospects in this class.

Adding his ability as a creator and distributor is what makes it so tempting to push him into the top five.

Having a forward who can run the offense (or a point guard with forward size) can create all kinds of mismatches on one end while making it easier to switch all over the floor on the other.

Originally Picked 3rd

This is probably starting to read like a broken record, but "it's early" really needs to be said for Scoot Henderson.

Because my goodness, the early portion of his rookie season has been rough.

Even for a rebuilding team like the Portland Trail Blazers, it became clear within a few games that Henderson isn't ready to start in the NBA. So, he's come off the bench in the majority of his games, and he's having a terrible time making shots and taking care of the ball even against reserves.

On the year, he's averaging 10.7 points on 11.0 field-goal attempts, posting a measly 1.4 assist-to-turnover ratio (96th among the 99 players with at least as many assists) and not really affecting the game as a defender (at least not positively).

Put it all together, and Scoot has a dreadful minus-9.4 box plus/minus. Among players from the past 20 years who logged at least 100 minutes in their first 18 games, that ranks 1,185th out of 1,208.

So, how is he still top-five?

For one thing, early advanced numbers don't always trump pedigree. Andrew Wiggins eventually came around once he found the right situation (though one might argue he never quite lived up to his pre-draft hype). The same might happen for Scoot.

There are at least some good signs in his more recent play. Over a 10-game stretch from November 26 to December 17, he averaged 13.3 points on 12.5 shots and 3.9 assists.

For the entire season, Portland's point differential is actually slightly better when he's on the floor.

Originally Picked 18th

Jaime Jaquez Jr. turns 23 in February. Like Trayce Jackson-Davis, that makes him older than most of the rest of the class, and by conventional draftnik wisdom, that's a minus. There's less time for Jaquez to develop than there is for Scoot Henderson, for example.

But there's also significantly more surety about what Jaquez will be as an NBA player.

Jaquez played a career-high 38 minutes on November 11. In the 21 games since then, he's averaged 15.6 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.3 threes and 1.0 steals while shooting 42.2 percent from deep.

He's become an almost indispensable role player for a veteran-heavy roster that just went to the Finals in June. When he's on the floor with Jimmy Butler, the Miami Heat are plus-7.5 points per 100 possessions.

Both wings have great feel for the game, an ability to work their way to their spots with as much guile as athleticism and good touch in the mid-range. A little overlap on the wings is suddenly en vogue (think about Jalen Williams and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum), and Jaquez looks like the kind of player who can thrive in a duo like that.

Originally Picked 5th

Ausar Thompson's dreadful shooting marks are tanking his advanced numbers, but the rest of his game is an incredibly intriguing and unique concoction of creation abilities.

For one thing, he's creating looks as a passer and ball-handler with a modest but encouraging average of 2.4 assists in 26.7 minutes.

But he's also creating extra possessions for his team by pounding the offensive glass, blocking shots and stealing the ball from the opposition.

Altogether, he has a 12.6 assist percentage, a 10.7 offensive rebounding percentage, a 3.6 block percentage and a 1.6 steal percentage. There are only 19 individual seasons in NBA history in which all of those marks were matched or exceeded.

If Thompson ever becomes even an average jump shooter, he has real All-Star potential.

Originally Picked 2nd

Three-and-D forwards were all the rage there for a while. Now, it's three-and-D-plus.

Ideally, your forwards and wings can knock down open shots, reliably defend multiple positions and even create a bit off the dribble for themselves and others. It's even better if those forwards are wings that are in the 6'8"-plus height range.

A third of the way into his rookie campaign, it looks like Brandon Miller will be able to check all of those boxes.

He's 6'9" with a near-seven-foot wingspan. He's averaging 15.0 points and 2.0 threes while shooting 38.2 percent from deep. Even on a team with a decent amount of playmaking, he's also averaging 2.3 assists.

The counting numbers aren't really there on the defensive end yet, but you can see him trying on that end of the floor. That's arguably the most important ingredient in defense (followed closely by size).

There are certainly some flaws to work through, but at this point, it's hard to imagine him developing into less than a high-end starting wing.

Originally Picked 1st

Even as his team has leaned into this "we don't need a traditional point guard" experiment with Jeremy Sochan (and now Malaki Branham), Victor Wembanyama has lived up to the hype through the first third of his first season.

His combination of length and fluidity still seems impossible, even after watching him in 20-plus games. It erases passing lanes and once-open shots in the blink of an eye. Wembanyama's defensive instincts are very advanced for his age. Even if he just topped out as this level of defender, he'd likely have a long and fruitful career.

As a 19-year-old rookie, he's in the 96th percentile in defensive estimated plus-minus (one of the most trusted catch-all metrics in NBA front offices) and averaging 8.4 defensive rebounds, 3.0 blocks and 1.4 steals in 30.2 minutes.

But that's not where the intrigue ends.

His jumpers aren't going down at a high rate (both his two and three-point percentages are well below the league averages), but his form looks like that of a wing. In time, especially if the San Antonio Spurs eventually play him with someone who'll set up easy looks, those percentages should rise.

He's also a truly unique weapon around the rim as a rim-running, lob-catching, offensive-rebounding finisher. In seemingly every game, there's some moment that he starts to take off from well outside other finishers' range and still reaches all the way to the rim.

What might be most underrated about him right now is his vision and willingness to pass.

When reports first surfaced about executives believing Wembanyama could be the best player on the league on both ends of the floor by his third or fourth season, it almost felt unfair to the teenage phenom.

Half a year later, it suddenly feels well within the realm of possibility.