Bleacher Report's 2024 NFL Divisional Playoff Picks

The divisional round matchups will feature NFL powerhouses against road underdogs who pulled off eye-opening upsets last week, a battle between former No. 1 overall picks and a growing AFC rivalry.

Bleacher Report's NFL expert panel, which includes analysts Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Gary Davenport, Brent Sobleski and Maurice Moton along with editors Wes O'Donnell, Ian Hanford and editor Bryan Toporek, took some lumps last week, going 2-4 against the spread and 3-3 straight up, but they will counter with some money-making picks this week for the divisional round.

The crew heavily sided with a home favorite in one matchup but split evenly on decisions for the other three games.

Does our panel expect C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love to put a couple of No. 1-seeded teams on upset alert? Can Baker Mayfield slay the Detroit Lions for a spot in the NFC Championship Game? Is this the end of the road for the reigning champions?

Our experts weighed in with their thoughts.

Lines are from DraftKings as of Thursday, Jan. 18, at 4 p.m. ET. Check the latest lines at DraftKings. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.

DraftKings Line: Baltimore -9

The Houston Texans haven't lost since quarterback C.J. Stroud returned from a concussion in Week 17. In fact, he's thrown for more yards and touchdowns in every game leading up to this matchup.

Even without explosive rookie wideout Tank Dell, Stroud has shown that he can carve up defenses with help from emerging third-year wide receiver Nico Collins.

Stroud will face the Baltimore Ravens for the second time this season; Houston lost to Baltimore in its season opener 25-9.

Nonetheless, Sobleski expects the Texans to even the score with the Ravens in a major upset.

"So, everyone else is on the Ravens to win straight up? And Baltimore is favored by a two-score spread? This screams a surprise victory for Houston or a back-door cover. C.J. Stroud being on the field certainly helps, as does the majority of Ravens starters not playing over the past two weekends.

"The last time Baltimore held the No. 1 seed and rested players, including quarterback Lamar Jackson, the Ravens were knocked out of the playoffs during their initial postseason matchup against the Tennessee Titans.

"Could history repeat itself? Maybe.

"The Texans have been in playoff mode since Week 17, won three straight contests and already showed they can bounce back against a playoff opponent they already lost to during the regular season."

In opposition to Sobleski, Moton had a flashback of the Texans' matchup with the New York Jets in Week 14 and sided with the Ravens ATS.

"Last week, C.J. Stroud shredded the Cleveland Browns' No. 1-ranked pass defense, throwing for 274 yards and three touchdowns in a 45-14 blowout, but he will face a more consistent unit on Saturday," Moton said.

"The Ravens allow the seventh-fewest points per game at home, and they field the sixth-ranked pass defense leaguewide. Baltimore will make it tough on Stroud, who has an underwhelming pass-catching group behind go-to wide receiver Nico Collins.

"Back in Week 14, Stroud struggled against the New York Jets defense before he exited the game with a concussion, throwing for just 91 yards in a 30-6 loss. Similar to Gang Green's unit, the Ravens could limit Stroud with their pass-rush, which led the league in sacks this season, and back-end pass coverage."

Predictions

Davenport: Ravens

Gagnon: Ravens

Hanford: Ravens

Knox: Texans

Moton: Ravens

O'Donnell: Texans

Sobleski: Texans

Toporek: Texans

ATS Consensus: None

SU Consensus: Ravens

Score Prediction: Ravens 31, Texans 21

DK Line: San Francisco -9.5

The Green Bay Packers have lost to the San Francisco 49ers in two of their past three trips to the playoffs. Needless to say, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan may have his former protégé Matt LaFleur's number.

This time around, Green Bay has a chance to keep pace with San Francisco's third-ranked scoring offense because of quarterback Jordan Love's hot hand. Over the past four weeks, Love has thrown for 10 touchdowns without an interception.

Moton praised Love for his in-season development, but he believes this young Packers squad will run out of steam in Santa Clara.

"This isn't a slight against Packers quarterback Jordan Love. He's shown tremendous growth in the second half of the season, but Green Bay will play its fourth road game in five weeks, going up against a well-rested 49ers squad that sat its key starters in Week 18," Moton said.

"Sure, the 49ers may have built up two weeks of rust, but they won six consecutive outings by 12-plus points after their Week 10 bye.

"Moreover, Christian McCaffrey opened the week with a full practice, which indicates he's recovered from a calf strain and is ready to run through the Packers' 28th-ranked run defense.

"San Francisco wins by double digits as it exposes defensive coordinator Joe Barry's shaky unit."

Toporek didn't pick Green Bay to win outright, but he believes Love will level the playing field.

"I don't expect the Packers defense to play as well as it did last week against the Cowboys. The Niners should score in droves against them," Toporek said. "But Jordan Love has been masterful in recent weeks, and that carried right over to his postseason debut.

"Even with rookie wideout Jayden Reed putting up a goose egg, Love went 16-of-21 for 272 yards and three touchdowns against a Dallas defense that ranked fifth in both points and yards allowed during the regular season.

"Who's to say he can't keep up in a back-and-forth shootout against the Niners, even if he and the Packers ultimately fall short? Don't discount the possibility of a back-door cover here, too."

Predictions

Davenport: Packers

Gagnon: Packers

Hanford: 49ers

Knox: 49ers

Moton: 49ers

O'Donnell: 49ers

Sobleski: Packers

Toporek: Packers

ATS Consensus: None

SU Consensus: 49ers

Score Prediction: 49ers 28, Packers 20

DK Line: Detroit -6

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers embarrassed a hapless Philadelphia Eagles club that sputtered through December into the playoffs, though we cannot take anything away from Baker Mayfield, who's going through a career rebirth.

In his first year with the Buccaneers, Mayfield has posted career highs in multiple passing categories, which led Knox to believe that Tampa Bay can exploit the Detroit Lions' 27th-ranked pass defense in a close battle.

"This is a tougher call than it probably should be. The Lions won 20-6 in Tampa back in Week 6 and are at home for the rematch," Knox said.

"However, teams figured out how to poke holes in Detroit's secondary down the stretch, and Baker Mayfield and the Bucs can take advantage.

"Tampa can also get after the quarterback with a defense that blitzes 40.1 percent of the time. Jared Goff can be forced into mistakes, and a turnover or two could keep the window open for the Buccaneers.

"I'd expect plenty of back-and-forth here, not unlike Detroit's wild-card game against the Rams. That one was extremely close, and I think this one will be, too. I'm picking the Lions to win here, but I won't be stunned if Tampa advances to the NFC title game."

As the only two peas in the pod to pick Tampa Bay, Davenport agreed with Knox, and he took it a step further, calling for the outright upset.

"I know that picking Tampa here is a combination of rooting for Thanos, picking Dick Dastardly to win the Wacky Races and hitting Santa Claus with a hockey stick," Davenport quipped.

"And to be clear, the Lions are the favorites in this game. But the Buccaneers have peeled off six wins in seven games, Tampa has the passing-game weapons in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to take advantage of Detroit's 27th-ranked pass defense, especially with Baker Mayfield playing the best football of his career.

"This may not be the highest-profile matchup of the week, but it could be the most exciting—and I expect the Buccaneers to be the one road team in the divisional round to pull the upset."

Predictions

Davenport: Buccaneers

Gagnon: Lions

Hanford: Lions

Knox: Buccaneers

Moton: Lions

O'Donnell: Lions

Sobleski: Lions

Toporek: Lions

ATS Consensus: Lions -6

SU Consensus: Lions

Score Prediction: Lions 31, Buccaneers 23

DK Line: Buffalo -2.5

In a growing rivalry AFC rivalry, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes will find himself in uncharted territory in his first road playoff game. With that said, he's 2-0 against the Buffalo Bills in the postseason.

Hanford refuses to write off the reigning champions to the chagrin of our editor, O'Donnell, who's still casting his line in Lake Erie for walleye or a Bills title.

"This may be Patrick Mahomes' first road playoff game, but I'm not ready to bet against him here. Josh Allen and the Bills looked explosive out of the gate last week against the Steelers but found themselves in a battle in the second half when they couldn't put a Mason Rudolph-led team away. Failure to put Mahomes away, on the other hand, won't end well.

"Kansas City should be comfortable playing aggressive defense, leaning on Isiah Pacheco and making this game ugly in another cold-weather matchup, while the continued rise of Rashee Rice will provide just enough explosiveness to get the job done.

"Mahomes is 8-1-1 as an underdog against the spread in his career for a reason (and 7-3 straight up). Sorry to my colleague Wes O'Donnell, but it's time for the walleye to stop biting. Chiefs cover, win and leave all of us wondering if they might somehow find their way back to the Super Bowl yet again."

In Week 14, the Bills beat the Chiefs 20-17 in Kansas City, and Gagnon thinks they're going to deliver the knockout blow to their conference rival at Highmark Stadium in Buffalo.

"The Chiefs remain alive despite having an off year in general, but they haven't looked strong enough for me to believe they can sustain something right now," Gagnon said.

"Buffalo is playing its best football all season and hasn't lost in regulation in more than two months. The Bills beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead last month and should be able to do it again with the home crowd behind them on Sunday.

"That said, I'd wait for some clarity on the multitude of significant Bills injuries (linebacker Terrel Bernard, cornerback Christian Benford, safety Taylor Rapp and wideout Gabe Davis) before dropping much cash on this one."

Predictions

Davenport: Bills

Gagnon: Bills

Hanford: Chiefs

Knox: Bills

Moton: Chiefs

O'Donnell: Chiefs

Sobleski: Bills

Toporek: Chiefs

ATS Consensus: None

SU Consensus: Bills

Score Prediction: Bills 24, Chiefs 21

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