Complete Bracket Predictions for 2024 NBA Playoffs

It's only been a few weeks since we last ran our NBA playoff bracket projections, and already much has changed.

The Milwaukee Bucks look really good again, the Dallas Mavericks have cooled off and injuries continue to mount for the New York Knicks. The top of the Western Conference is still a heavyweight fight, however, while the Boston Celtics have only increased their comfy lead as the No. 1 seed in the East.

Based on current record, remaining strength of schedule (SOS) and other factors, here's a best guess at how a full 2024 NBA playoff bracket will look.

Note: Remaining SOS rankings via Tankathon. All stats and records accurate as of Tuesday.

New York Knicks

Current Record/Seed: 36-26, 5th in East

Remaining SOS Rank: 15th overall

Injuries have caused the Knicks to fall out of the top-four spots in the Eastern Conference, although we don't expect them to stay there for long. A recent knee contusion suffered by All-Star point guard Jalen Brunson was revealed to be clean, according to an MRI, so the 27-year-old shouldn't miss extended time.

We're still awaiting the returns of Julius Randle and OG Anunoby, but even having a healthy Brunson (along with Josh Hart, Donte DiVincenzo and others) is enough to keep New York from falling too far in the standings. The Knicks are beating opponents by 7.9 points per 100 possessions just by having Brunson and Hart on the floor together this season.

New York is going to be an extremely dangerous playoff team if it gets its core players back in time, a group even the Heat should be afraid of.

Miami Heat

Current Record/Seed: 35-26, 6th in East

Remaining SOS Rank: 28th overall

After hovering around the East play-in tournament for most of the year, Miami is finally beginning to warm up.

Having gone on an impressive 5-1 run since the All-Star break, the Heat are getting some solid play from Terry Rozier (17.3 points, 5.8 assists, 45.5 percent shooting overall over his last four contests) and have added guard insurance with the signings of Delon Wright and now Patty Mills.

This is a team that could climb all the way to the No. 4 seed in the East and very well might if the Knicks continue to be hampered by injuries. Miami also has one of the easiest remaining schedules in the NBA and doesn't have to play the Boston Celtics or Milwaukee Bucks anymore.

We've seen this movie before. Expect the Heat to keep rising this time of year.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Current Record/Seed: 40-21, 3rd in East

Remaining SOS Rank: 13th overall

A 2.5-game lead over the Milwaukee Bucks at the All-Star break has since disappeared as the Cavs have battled injuries and lethargic play at times. A 4.5-game lead over the Orlando Magic should be enough for Cleveland to stay among the top three spots, however.

Of course, this also depends on Donovan Mitchell's knee, as the All-Star guard had to receive a platelet-rich plasma injection that will sideline him for at least the next two games.

Evan Mobley is also expected to miss extended time following a sprained left ankle suffered during the Cavs' comeback win over the Boston Celtics on Tuesday. Cleveland has weathered Mobley's injuries well all season, however, going 16-7 without its starting power forward.

This is a deep Cavaliers group that doesn't have a single remaining game against any of the current top five seeds in the East. This favorable schedule should keep Cleveland at No. 3 overall.

Orlando Magic

Current Record/Seed: 36-26, 4th in East

Remaining SOS Rank: 27th overall

While it looked like the young Magic would inevitably fall back into the East play-in picture, this group has gone 6-1 since the All-Star break and is fighting for home-court advantage in the first round.

As Orlando has had the NBA's second-best defense over this stretch (104.5 rating) and has one of the league's easiest remaining schedules, we're buying the Magic as a top-six seed in the East.

At full strength, this is one of the deepest teams in the NBA, even if we're not convinced that some recent hot outside shooting is sustainable yet. Seeing Paolo Banchero in his first playoff series would be fun, especially if it comes against arguably the best defensive big-man duo in the league.

Milwaukee Bucks

Current Record/Seed: 41-21, 2nd in East

Remaining SOS Rank: 3rd overall

The only team with a perfect record since the All-Star break (6-0), the Bucks continue to win even with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton missing time.

Give Doc Rivers credit as well, as Milwaukee has the No. 1 defense since the break (102.6 rating) after suffering on that side of the ball nearly all season. Damian Lillard has stepped up when needed (41 points in a win over the Los Angeles Clippers without Antetokounmpo) and should continue to look more comfortable.

While we projected the Bucks to overtake the Cavs for the No. 2 seed a few weeks ago, Milwaukee already has a half game lead over their Central Division foes. The Boston Celtics (up 7.5 games) are out of reach, although staying at No. 2 would at least guarantee the Bucks will avoid them until the Eastern Conference Finals.

Indiana Pacers

Current Record/Seed: 35-28, 8th in East

Remaining SOS Rank: 7th overall

A big road win over the Dallas Mavericks could be the start of a run for Indiana, although the Pacers are just 11-11 with Pascal Siakam following the blockbuster trade. We'll need more evidence before declaring Indiana a top-six seed in the East.

For now, this is a group that will at least come out of the play-in tournament, as we've seen how well it's previously done in these environments.

The Pacers could use more from their other trade deadline acquisition, Doug McDermott, who's made just four of his first 20 three-point attempts (20.0 percent) in six games.

Indiana simply looks like a good—but not great—team for now. With a tough remaining schedule, a seventh-place projection feels fair.

Boston Celtics

Current Record/Seed: 48-13, 1st in East

Remaining SOS Rank: 30th overall

The Celtics were a 22-point fourth-quarter lead away from 12 straight wins and should still be viewed as the alpha in the NBA.

Boston has held the No. 1 seed in the East since Nov. 14, a streak of nearly four months, and is currently 7.5 games up on the Milwaukee Bucks. As if this weren't enough, the Celtics also possess the easiest remaining schedule of any NBA team and get eight more games against the Washington Wizards, Detroit Pistons, Charlotte Hornets and Portland Trail Blazers.

Boston even has a 5.5-game lead over the Minnesota Timberwolves for best record in the league and will almost certainly carry home-court advantage all the way through the NBA Finals, should it advance that far.

The only thing that should scare the Celtics? Potentially facing a healthy Joel Embiid and the 76ers in the first round.

Philadelphia 76ers

Current Record/Seed: 35-26, 7th in East

Remaining SOS Rank: 16th overall

The Sixers refuse to die even without their MVP center, going 3-4 since the All-Star break. While Philly is just a half game out of the No. 4 seed in the East, it looks more likely that it'll end up in the play-in tournament as injuries continue to mount.

Tyrese Maxey has missed time with a concussion and De'Anthony Melton will be reevaluated in two weeks while recovering from lumbar spine bone stress. Kyle Lowry needs occasional games off for rest as well.

Now 9-18 overall without Embiid this season, the Sixers just need to make the best of a bad situation and hope their leader can return before the play-in tournament. A seventh or eighth seed seems inevitable.

Los Angeles Clippers

Current Record/Seed: 39-21, 4th in West

Remaining SOS Rank: 10th overall

The Clippers' run toward the top of the West has stalled a bit, as Paul George has battled knee soreness and Russell Westbrook is out for potentially the rest of the regular season following surgery to a fractured left hand.

Los Angeles may not have the juice to grab the No. 1 seed in the conference, but this is still comfortably a top-four team in the West.

With Kawhi Leonard, George and James Harden all on the floor without Westbrook this season, the Clippers are beating opponents by a healthy 13.8 points per 100 possessions (98th percentile, per Cleaning the Glass).

This is still a potential title team, even if the Clippers have to sacrifice home-court advantage after the first round.

New Orleans Pelicans

Current Record/Seed: 37-25, 5th in West

Remaining SOS Rank: 9th overall

The Pelicans have the third-highest net rating following the All-Star break (plus-12.8), even if their modest 4-3 record wouldn't suggest it.

New Orleans has been surprisingly carried by its defense, even with the amount of firepower this offense possesses. Even Herb Jones has become an outside threat (43.6 percent from three this season).

As much as the Pelicans will want a top-four seed, this team has been equally good no matter where it plays (18-12 at home, 19-13 on the road) and should be happy to simply stay at No. 5 with the Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings, Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Lakers all 3.5 games or fewer behind.

A tough remaining schedule doesn't help, although New Orleans at least gets to avoid the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets from here on out.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Current Record/Seed: 43-19, 1st in West

Remaining SOS Rank: 12th overall

A 4-3 record and 22nd-ranked offense coming out of the All-Star break is a little concerning for the Wolves, who could battle the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets for the No. 1 seed.

And on Thursday, that concern grew drastically with news that Karl-Anthony Towns is out indefinitely after suffering a torn left meniscus, as reported by Shams Charania of The Athletic and Stadium.

To make matters worse, the Timberwolves play the Nuggets three more times, including two at Denver. They're about to begin their longest road trip of the season, and they'll spend their next six games playing in three different time zones, with stops in Indiana, Cleveland, Los Angeles (Lakers and Clippers) and Utah. Their first home game in over two weeks (and in a fourth time zone) will be against the Nuggets.

This is simply a brutal stretch of schedule that will inevitably cost Minnesota some games in the standings.

Phoenix Suns

Current Record/Seed: 36-26, 6th in West

Remaining SOS Rank: 1st overall

We're still waiting on the Suns to officially click, as this group simply can't get all three of its stars on the court at the same time. The NBA's hardest remaining schedule doesn't help, either.

The good news is that Phoenix has still been quite good with at least two of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal, even knocking off the Nuggets in Denver without Booker.

Jusuf Nurkić is playing some of the best basketball of his career (12.4 points, 17.6 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.6 blocks, 51.1 percent shooting over his last five games), and Royce O'Neale (10.0 points, 6.1 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.5 steals, 40.0 percent from three) has given the Suns a huge boost since coming over via trade from the Brooklyn Nets.

No one will want to face these Suns come playoff time, although Phoenix will be forced to begin the postseason on the road.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Current Record/Seed: 42-19, 2nd in West

Remaining SOS Rank: 18th overall

Currently just a half game behind the Minnesota Timberwolves for No. 1 in the West, the Thunder will probably jump the Wolves, even if a different team eventually passes them as well.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will continue to make his push for MVP, and newly acquired Gordon Hayward can't possibly be as bad as he's been in his first seven games in OKC (2.4 points on 24.0 percent shooting overall in 14.6 minutes). Mike Muscala was recently signed to bring some additional floor-spacing to the frontcourt as well.

OKC has a favorable schedule, as there's no games remaining against the Timberwolves, Denver Nuggets or Los Angeles Clippers.

Facing the Lakers in the first round would be a nightmare matchup, however, as the Thunder have gone just 1-3 against L.A. while struggling to match the Lakers' size and physicality.

Los Angeles Lakers

Current Record/Seed: 34-29, 9th in West

Remaining SOS Rank: 8th overall

The Lakers are 7-3 since deciding to stand pat at the trade deadline, with their only losses coming to the Denver Nuggets, Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors (without LeBron James).

There's a chance the Lakers climb out of the play-in tournament, although that would mean jumping at least three of the New Orleans Pelicans, Suns, Sacramento Kings and Dallas Mavericks, a difficult task to say the least.

Finding a reliable lineup has been a struggle, as head coach Darvin Ham has juggled his starting five all season. Of the Lakers' five most-used lineups, all have a net rating in the 50th percentile or lower.

We still like Los Angeles' chances of coming away victorious in a must-win play-in game, however, much like the Lakers had to do last season. Another seventh seed seems likely.

Denver Nuggets

Current Record/Seed: 42-20, 3rd in West

Remaining SOS Rank: 19th overall

A difficult upcoming schedule for the Minnesota Timberwolves has the Nuggets in prime position to take over the West's No. 1 seed once again.

Currently just a game back of the Wolves, the Nuggets are 6-1 since the All-Star break and have a very friendly schedule to close out the season. Denver, 24-6 at home, has 12 of its remaining 20 games in Colorado and doesn't go on the road for more than two games at a time.

Even if he doesn't care about it, Nikola Jokić leading Denver to a No. 1 seed once again would go a long way in winning a third MVP award, and the Nuggets should begin to tighten their rotation for the playoffs.

While they've watched the Wolves stay atop the West for most of the season, Denver's time is almost here.

Dallas Mavericks

Current Record/Seed: 34-28, 8th in West

Remaining SOS Rank: 25th overall

We projected the Mavs to miss the playoffs a few weeks ago and probably would again if the Sacramento Kings weren't struggling so bad right now (5-7 over their last 12 games).

While Dallas got a small emotional boost at the trade deadline with the additions of P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford, this is still a roster that needs Luka Dončić to nearly put up a 35-point triple-double every night for it to win. The Mavs simply don't have the firepower to match some of the other teams in the West.

Losers of three straight, Dallas is still guaranteed to stay in the West play-in tournament thanks to the Utah Jazz tumbling down the standings. Dončić has been so dominant in the playoffs that we expect him to carry the Mavericks for a pair of play-in games as well.

Getting the eighth seed and having to face the defending champion Nuggets in the first round is going to lead to a long offseason in Dallas, however, with some uncomfortable conversations to follow.