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Jake Guentzel Trade Leaves Penguins, Sidney Crosby at Crossroads

Adam GretzMarch 8, 2024

PITTSBURGH, PA - FEBRUARY 14: Pittsburgh Penguins left wing Jake Guentzel (59) looks on during the second period in the NHL game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Florida Panthers on February 14, 2024, at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA. (Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The Pittsburgh Penguins were never going to win a Jake Guentzel trade at the deadline.

At least not in the short term. Probably not in the long term, either. It isn't because anybody was going to do anything wrong, but because sellers simply don't win deadline deals. Not with rentals, even if the rental you're trading is a top-line winger and an elite goal-scorer.

Contenders are not going to give up significant roster pieces. They're not going to part with top prospects or key young players for a few months of a player. If you get a first-round pick, it's probably going to be at the back end of the first-round where you might have a 50-50 chance of even getting somebody who becomes an NHL regular.

You don't rebuild or start rebuilds by dealing rentals.

So when viewed through that lens, the Penguins' return for Guentzel on Thursday night (Michael Bunting, three prospects, two conditional draft picks) shouldn't be too much of a surprise. If anything, they probably got more than most teams get for a rental in terms of the quantity of assets they received.

Elliotte Friedman @FriedgeHNIC

Here's your deal:<br><br>To Carolina: Guentzel, Ty Smith<br><br>To Pittsburgh: Michael Bunting, Ville Koivunen, Vasili Ponomarev, Cruz Lucius, conditional 2024 1st, conditional 2024 5th.

If you wanted to quibble with anything, opting for a quantity-over-quality return probably hurt them in terms of finding a potential long-term fit or an impactful player. The bare minimum expectation for a trade involving a player of Guentzel's caliber and production would have been a guaranteed first-round pick, but in the end, general manager Kyle Dubas settled for more prospects.

Bunting is a serviceable player, but he's signed for two more years and doesn't move the needle in a meaningful direction. He's a guy who fills out your roster and might score 20 goals that you will quickly forget about. Yeah, he replaces Guentzel's roster spot and gives them an NHL player, but the drop-off in talent and productivity is immense.

If even one of the three prospects eventually becomes a regular on a good Penguins team, you probably did better than expected. But we're years away from ever knowing that.

Michael Bunting.
Michael Bunting.Josh Lavallee/NHLI via Getty Images

In the meantime, it does leave the Penguins and their captain, Sidney Crosby, at something of a crossroads in where they go next.

While it's easy to look at the Penguins' situation—heading toward a second consecutive non-playoff season and Crosby's preferred winger being traded for some magic beans—and wonder if Crosby might look for an avenue out of town soon, there's nothing to indicate that will happen.

Crosby has remained adamant that his long-term plans haven't changed, and that the Guentzel situation wasn't going to change them. I think there is a better chance that on July 1 he has a new contract extension already in place than there is of him ever playing in another uniform. It's fun to talk about and speculate. It's also not likely.

B/R Open Ice @BR_OpenIce

"I don't know. It's probably a better question for them."<br><br>Sidney Crosby when asked about the message management sent by trading Jake Guentzel 🎙️ <br><br>(via <a href="https://twitter.com/penguins?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@penguins</a>) <a href="https://t.co/xrlyBa3R7c">pic.twitter.com/xrlyBa3R7c</a>

But you can't ignore the reality of the situation for the Penguins and the uncertainty of what's ahead.

That is what makes the Guentzel trade—and return—so hard to figure out. Honestly, it's what makes the entire first year of the Dubas experience hard to figure out. There has been nothing but mixed messages, head-scratching moves and curious comments that don't align with one another.

There is a mindset in Pittsburgh that Dubas wasn't brought in to turn the Penguins around in the short term, but that he was brought in to orchestrate a long-term rebuild and usher in a new era.

Nothing that he has done so far would seem to align with that belief.

Nearly every player he has acquired so far has been a player either over the age of 30 or soon-to-be over the age of 30 and also signed to a multi-year contract.

Kyle Dubas.
Kyle Dubas.Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

Reilly Smith was 32 and signed for two more years.

Erik Karlsson was 33 and signed for four more years.

Noel Acciari, Lars Eller and Matt Nieto were all over the age of 30 and signed to multi-year deals to help solidify a defensively minded bottom six.

Ryan Graves was 28 and signed for six years. He is under contract longer than any player currently on the roster.

Even Bunting, one of the pieces in the Guentzel trade, is going to be 29 next season and is also signed for multiple years.

Those are not exactly rebuilding moves. The reason you trade for Karlsson and his contract is because you believe you can win right now. That's a "quick turnaround" kind of move. All of those moves are.

There is also nothing wrong with that mindset. Even though they missed the playoffs a year ago, there was good reason to think the Penguins could rebound with a strong offseason, especially given how high of a level their core players (Crosby, Guentzel, Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin and even Bryan Rust) were still playing at. As long as you have players like that, you never want to throw in the towel.

Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang.
Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang.Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

The Penguins didn't give up. But it also didn't work. And all of it also comes with the backdrop of Dubas repeatedly saying that the team needs to get younger. Sure, the Guentzel trade brought in some prospects, but that deal only happened out of necessity and having their hands forced.

As long as Crosby remains in Pittsburgh—and the assumption here, again, is that he will—it is hard to see them going with a full-scale rebuild. Not only because Crosby is still a top-five player in the league, but also because they have shown no sign of doing that. The Guentzel trade doesn't exactly change that.

If they were going full-scale rebuild they would have wanted more draft picks and probably tried to lock in a first-rounder.

They wouldn't have gone for high-floor but low-ceiling prospects who might be closer to NHL-ready, but lacking in upside.

There are more changes likely ahead, especially over the next few months. The type of players the Penguins acquire, both on Friday and in the offseason, will give us a clearer window on what direction they are going to go in.