Buy Low or Sell High: What to Do with Dynasty Fantasy Trade Assets After Free Agency

We're about a week into 2024 NFL free agency. All the wheeling and dealing has shaken up the NFL landscape in a major way. And if it alters the league's landscape, it alters fantasy football as well.

Managers in redraft leagues have plenty of time to adjust to the changes. But dynasty managers are another animal altogether. The closer to the NFL draft we get, the more that contending teams want to move picks for the veteran whom they think will put them over the top and the more that rebuilding teams want to parlay aging veterans into picks.

The ideal way to do both is by buying low and selling high—acquiring veterans who outperform their price tag and unloading players that can deliver more of a return in a trade than they will in fantasy points in the upcoming season.

Knowing which players are which can be a tricky business. Luckily, I'm a helpful kind of person.

Fantasy scoring data courtesy of FFToday

We might as well kick things off with one of the more surprising transactions of free agency.

It wasn't surprising that the Chicago Bears traded quarterback Justin Fields. Just about everyone expects them to select USC's Caleb Williams with the No. 1 overall pick. But it was shocking that they only got a conditional Day 3 pick from the Pittsburgh Steelers for Fields.

As if that wasn't bad enough, the trade came after the Steelers acquired veteran Russell Wilson. Per Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated, the Steelers have been clear that Wilson will enter training camp as the starter.

"Steelers coach Mike Tomlin was upfront with Justin Fields—told him that Russell Wilson is the starter, and Fields will work from there," Breer tweeted. "Fields has told people he's excited for the new beginning."

Fields may be excited, but fantasy managers aren't. However, there could be an opportunity for value here.

Fields' value is about as low as it has ever been. It's possible that the 2024 campaign will be a wash for him. But if Wilson struggles at some point, it won't take long for fans to clamor for Fields, who was the QB12 in fantasy points per game last year and QB6 the year before that.

At any rate, the Steelers aren't likely to pick up Fields' 2025 option at $25 million, so the former Ohio State star will probably be hitting free agency again next spring.

If you can afford to be patient, Fields can likely be had for a reasonable price.

If we knew then what we know now, Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert would have been a great sell-high candidate a year ago.

Entering 2023, Herbert was an ascending young star at his position. He was fresh off a season in which he topped 4,700 passing yards, threw 25 touchdown passes and finished eighth among quarterbacks in fantasy points. In 2021, he had a 5,000-yard season and finished as the QB3. The sky was seemingly the limit for Herbert.

That sky fell in 2023. Herbert missed a month with a broken finger, threw for a career-low 3,134 yards and finished as the QB19. And things have only gotten worse for him since.

Former Chargers running back Austin Ekeler signed with the Washington Commanders in free agency. The Chargers traded wide receiver Keenan Allen to the Chicago Bears for a bag of Doritos Flamas and released fellow wideout Mike Williams And as Jason Katz wrote for Pro Football Network, Herbert now plays for a head coach in Jim Harbaugh whose offense is decidedly old-school.

"For the duration of Herbert's tenure as the Chargers' starting QB, they've been a pass-first offense," Katz said. Last year, the Chargers ranked seventh with a 59% neutral game script pass rate. They also played at the fastest pace in the league. Things are likely to change under the new regime.

"Harbaugh's teams run the ball. According to NBC Sports' Denny Carter, Harbaugh's 49ers teams ranked 31st, 31st, 32nd, and 29th in pass attempts, respectively, from 2011-2014. His last two Michigan teams ranked 117th and 121st, respectively, out of 130 teams in pass rate."

If you can find a trade partner who still sees Herbert as a young, ascending talent, getting what you can for him now might be the way to go.

Other than quarterback Justin Herbert, just about every big name on the Chargers offense has been traded, released or left in free agency. That includes running back Austin Ekeler, who signed a relatively modest two-year, $11 million pact with the Washington Commanders.

Given the minuscule size of that deal and the presence of Brian Robinson Jr. in D.C., Ken Kelly of Dynasty League Football believes that Ekeler's days of fantasy stardom may be behind him.

"It clearly seems the days of him being an RB1 in dynasty leagues are all but over," Kelly said. "You have to expect Brian Robinson to continue to be involved in early down work and Ekeler is likely going to be the passing down back for Kliff Kingsbury's offense. In short, expect his rushing yards to decrease while he posts some solid receiving statistics. Regardless, Ekeler looks like a part-time player and while he could carve out some good games, he looks much more like a FLEX option than a RB1 moving forward."

Ekeler averaged a career-low 3.5 yards per carry last season and scored six touchdowns, but he also played through an ankle injury for most of the year. In 2022, Ekeler topped 900 rushing yards and 1,600 total yards, averaged 4.5 yards per carry and found the end zone 18 times on the way to finishing as fantasy's highest-scoring running back in PPR formats.

If you believe that Ekeler can be (or will be) more than just a passing-down complement to Robinson in Washington, now is the time to send an offer for the 28-year-old.

The Green Bay Packers made an aggressive move to upgrade their backfield in free agency, releasing Aaron Jones and bringing in Josh Jacobs on a four-year, $48 million contract.

The question for fantasy managers is how big an upgrade it really is.

To be fair, some pundits like the move. As Jennifer Eakins pointed out at 4for4, few running backs have been as consistently productive as Jacobs over the past several seasons.

"In his five years in the NFL, Jacobs has rushed for 5,545 yards which is the second-most behind Derrick Henry's 7,209 since 2019," she said. "His 46 rushing touchdowns also sit second to Henry (68) in that timeframe. We can't forget his pass-catching chops, as Jacobs' career 1,448 receiving yards ranks ninth among RBs from 2019-2023. At just 26 years old there is plenty of runway left for Jacobs and with a fresh start, and a better offensive line in Green Bay which was 10th in 4for4's end-of-season rankings compared to Vegas (14th), 2023 is hopefully an outlier for the RB."

That last part is the kicker.

After leading the league in rushing two years ago, Jacobs' 2023 campaign was a disappointment. He missed four games and had career lows in both rushing yards (805) and yards per carry (3.5). Had Jacobs not switched teams, his fantasy value would likely be lower in the eyes of many than it is now.

That "Packer Premium" (as it were) could present dynasty managers with an opportunity. If you can get a trade partner to pay for Jacobs' 2022 season and new team as opposed to what happened a year ago, it's worth exploring.

Even in dynasty fantasy leagues, it's typically wise to view the running back position through a redraft lens. There are exceptions who can be viewed as long-term options, but the position has a short shelf life. There's a lot of turnover, as we saw this year.

If you can get a Raheem Mostert or Rachaad White who is capable of one big season, it can be worth it, especially if you view yourself as a contender.

The New York Giants replaced the departed Saquon Barkley with Devin Singletary, who spent last year in Houston after four years in Buffalo. The 26-year-old told reporters he's eager to help the Giants win any way he can.

"Saquon is great. Everyone knows that," he said. "I'm just happy to be a Giant. I'm looking forward to a great opportunity here, and I'm ready to get to work. That's how I'm looking at it. Smart, dependable. I'm a guy that's always going to come in to work. Great energy every day. That's me being me. Ready to help the team win any way that I can. That's what I'm looking forward to."

No one is going to mention Singletary among the league's elite in the backfield. But he quietly surpassed 1,000 total yards last year in Houston. He has averaged a very respectable 4.6 yards per carry over his career. Singletary has at least 30 catches in four of five seasons. And he's familiar with Brian Daboll's offense from their time together in Buffalo.

Singletary has the potential to be one of the better running back values of 2024.

George Pickens was the WR28 in PPR leagues last year. Now that the Steelers have ostensibly upgraded at quarterback with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields and banished wide receiver Diontae Johnson to the hinterlands of Carolina, many fantasy managers are predicting a third-year breakout for Pickens in 2024.

Dave Richard of CBS Sports didn't go so far as to say Pickens wouldn't top last year's finish. But as he pointed out, there are some potential obstacles to Pickens' ascension.

"Pickens still has to prove a few things," he wrote. "One: That he can be counted on for an expanded route tree that makes him less predictable to cover. Two: That he can consistently break away from coverage and not turn every intermediate and deep target into a contested catch. Three: That he can be in sync with Russell Wilson just like Courtland Sutton was last year and Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf were in the years prior. Four: That Arthur Smith trusts him, designs a lot of plays for him and won't be so run-heavy to the point that he takes pass attempts away from him."

That's without considering potential struggles from Wilson and Fields. Or that it's possible (even likely) that the Steelers are not done adding receivers after signing Van Jefferson.

When a player's hype is at its apex, that's usually a good time to at least consider what you could get for him in a trade. And Pickens' value is likely never going to be higher than it is right now.

Two years ago, Diontae Johnson set an NFL record for the most receiving yards in a season without a touchdown. This offseason, the Pittsburgh Steelers shipped him to Carolina for cornerback Donte Jackson and a late-round pick swap.

But per Kassidy Hill of the team's website, Johnson is looking for a fresh start in Charlotte—and he's eager to get to work building a rapport with young quarterback Bryce Young.

"I feel like I can help Bryce [Young] out a lot," Johnson said. "I mean, and I know it's going to take time, but I just got to have patience. I know things aren't going to be smooth just out the gate. (But) I kind of know like what to expect. Start getting this chemistry together.

"... As a receiver, I would say, obviously, you want the ball. But just (getting) that timing down and then actually knowing when the quarterback is going to release the ball and him knowing where you going to be at, that's a big thing. I feel like that's when you know, like on certain routes, like you can tell like they, they in rhythm."

Johnson hasn't cracked the top 30 in PPR points since catching 107 passes for over 1,100 yards en route to a WR8 finish in 2021. But despite all of Carolina's struggles last season, Adam Thielen caught over 100 passes, topped 1,000 yards and cracked the top-20 fantasy wideouts.

If Young improves in Year 2 and he and Johnson click, top-15 (or even top-12) fantasy numbers aren't out of the question. Given the lack of excitement surrounding Carolina's offense this year, that production might be available at a discount.

Selling high can be a relative concept in dynasty leagues. Many managers aren't giving up a lot for a 31-year-old wideout who just changed teams.

However, when that wideout just caught 108 passes for 1,243 yards and finished the season eighth in PPR points among wide receivers, contenders who feel like they are one player away from a championship may be inclined to live in the now and go for it.

If you can find a trade partner like that for new Chicago Bears wide receiver Keenan Allen, it's a deal worth serious consideration.

The Chargers dealt Allen to the Bears for a Day 3 pick last week. For his part, Allen said all the right things while addressing the media, both in regard to the likely arrival of rookie quarterback Caleb Williams and how he can help the USC star acclimate to the pros.

"Hell of an athlete," Allen said of Williams. "Obviously, he can make tremendous plays with his feet, with his arm. Looks like he knows the game really well. Really good.

"...I just think I'm friendly for the quarterback because I'll be in the right spots. I know how to communicate with him, and my body language is solid, too."

Over the last five years, Allen has been as consistently productive when healthy as any wideout in the league. He posted triple-digit catches in four of those years, but that was on a pass-heavy Chargers team. Last year, the Bolts were third in the league in pass attempts, while the Bears were 27th.

Even with more offensive balance, the target volume likely won't be there for Allen in 2024, especially with wideout D.J. Moore and tight end Cole Kmet also in the mix.

After wide receiver Gabe Davis departed Buffalo for Jacksonville, the Bills were left with a sizable hole at wide receiver. They attempted to address that need with the signings of Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins.

Neither of those players is especially well-suited to play on the boundary, but Joe Buscaglia of The Athletic believes Samuel's arrival does add a facet to the Buffalo offense it didn't have before.

"The pairing of Samuel in Buffalo is a fascinating one, because it gives the Bills a versatile option that can be used in a few different ways," he said. "Samuel was primarily a slot receiver over the last two years in Washington. According to Pro Football Focus, of his wide receiver snaps only, Samuel was lined up as the slot receiver on 74.6 percent of the time over 2022 and 2023. But he also has the versatility and function of lining up in the backfield, which he did on 63 snaps over the last two seasons. In 2022, he had 38 rush attempts for 187 yards.

"Samuel could very well become a hybrid between the two spots while also being able to line up outside, providing an interesting skill set that the Bills did not have on their offense last season."

Samuel has never been a big-time contributor in fantasy football—he was 42nd in PPR points among wide receivers last season. It's entirely possible the Bills aren't done at the position yet, either.

But adding another wideout would only drive Samuel's asking price down even more, and the 28-year-old has never played with a quarterback the caliber of Josh Allen.

A career season for the versatile Samuel is coming in 2024. Get in on that breakout before everyone realizes it.

After consecutive disappointing seasons, many fantasy managers have Kyle Pitts fatigue. While his talent is undeniable, he languished on Arthur Smith's offense with mediocre quarterback play (to put it kindly).

But now, a massive jolt of enthusiasm has awakened many of those sleepy managers. The Atlanta Falcons have a new head coach in Raheem Morris and are getting a massive upgrade under center with the arrival of Kirk Cousins.

With Pitts headed into his fourth season, Tom Strachan of FantasyPros expects a spike in targets for Pitts. In fact, he thinks the Falcons almost have to give Pitts a sizable spike in targets.

"One of the biggest sources of frustration over the last three years has been Kyle Pitts, who was viewed as a generational talent coming out of college," he said. "What nobody saw coming, however, was Arthur Smith, a man content to pour high-end draft capital into offensive weapons and then just let them languish under horrendously average quarterback play. In 2022, only 59% of Pitts' targets were deemed catchable, way down from the league average of 79%. Despite increasing to 69% in 2023, it was still well below the league average.

"Pitts finally has a good quarterback for the first time in his NFL career and will be in a more pass-focused attack. Kirk Cousins has helped Jordan Reed and T.J. Hockenson get to the cusp of 1,000-yard seasons. The new coaching staff needs Cousins to target Pitts plenty so they can evaluate his future with the team. It's now or never for Pitts."

No tight end has ever been selected higher in the NFL draft than Pitts. Cousins is easily the best quarterback he has played with. And yet, if I could get a decent return from a manager who's convinced that this is the year with Pitts, I'd all but certainly move on.

I'm tired of chasing a breakout that isn't assured of coming.

Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers' Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter @IDPSharks.