Ranking All 30 NBA Teams by Potential Offseason Drama

More than half of the NBA is in offseason mode, and we're handling the duality of playoff-basketball consumption and summertime planning the only way we can: By cranking out a fresh, piping-hot batch of chaos rankings—garnished, as always, with a dangerous pile of ghost peppers.

Bleacher Report's Dan Favale and Grant Hughes are answering this call to arms with their aplomb and affinity for offseason anarchy. "Chaos" in this case will serve as an analog for roster turnover, potential trade demands, looming or active coaching changes, the pressure to significantly improve, tough free-agency and extension decisions and negotiations, and general in-house turmoil.

Teams will be ranked according to the breadth and scale at which they're dealing with any combination of these factors. The tools at their disposal will be part of their calculus.

The Phoenix Suns, for instance, a collective agent for chaos. They will—spoiler alert that's not really a spoiler—feature prominently (read: infamously) inside this exercise.

At the same time, the Suns' mayhem meter can only spike so high given their trade-asset and second-apron constraints—unless, of course, you believe a Kevin Durant or Devin Booker trade demand is coming down the pipeline, or team governor Mat Ishbia is going to erect a Godzilla-sized bronze statue of himself adjacent to every one of Cleveland Cavaliers governor Dan Gilbert's residences.

We will also slot squads into five separate tiers relative to their offseason-drama potential. You might cobble together different rankings inside each bucket. That's OK! Teams in the same tier are essentially interchangeable—their summertime fates subject to comparable, if not equal, volumes of mission-critical needs and decisions and the prospective bedlam that comes with them.

Pandemonium pants on? Good. Let's roll.

Chaos reigns supreme when teams tear everything down and enter a rebuild. The Washington Wizards have already navigated that part of their existence.

This summer has much lower stakes. They need to nail what should be a top-four draft pick, but ensuring they hit on a lottery prospect isn't unique to them.

Washington's ongoing search for a head coach adds some spiciness to the equation, but this is the fun-era hire. Absent expectations for next season, the Wizards are free to operate outside the box and roll the dice on inexperience or even just stick with interim head coach Brian Keefe.

There's not much to Washington's offseason beyond the head coaching vacancy. It can look to move Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Poole, but their exits are far from a mandate—or, in Poole's case, even particularly feasible. It could throw these chaos rankings for a whirl by shopping Deni Avdija, but rebuilding franchises tend not to offload 23-year-old Most Improved Player candidates on bargain-bin deals.

Unless you're inexplicably anxious over Corey Kispert extension talks, potentially losing Tyus Jones in free agency without receiving any compensation for his departure is no lower than the second-most important storyline facing this team. That says all you need to know.

-Favale

Firing up the Long Overdue Rebuild-in-Nizer 7000 at the trade deadline restricts the amount of chaos to which the Charlotte Hornets are subjected.

That's a good thing.

Charlotte's primary aims now that it has hired Charles Lee as head coach are pretty basic: Don't muck up its should-be top-four pick, definitely don't flip any of its own future first-rounders and continue accumulating other teams' draft equity and taking fliers on the margins of the roster.

Miles Bridges' free agency qualified as high-stakes once upon a time, but it doesn't anymore. Watching him walk out the door for nothing would hardly be ideal asset management, but it's galaxies from franchise malpractice.

Oh, and let's not rule out an anti-climactic conclusion to Bridges' foray onto the open market. The Hornets have his Bird rights. They can re-sign him and look to move him later or help him suss out sign-and-trade opportunities.

Life in Charlotte will devolve into complete disorder if the front office decides to entertain LaMelo Ball trades, but there's no need for them to do that. Which means we have zero business assuming they will.

-Favale

Content creators heavily invested in the "Will the pick convey?" discourse won't agree with the Toronto Raptors' Tier 5 placement. That's their prerogative.

My prerogative is not getting bent out of shape by the fate of a top-six-protected pick in a draft class that doesn't have a consensus No. 1 prospect, let alone a concrete top six.

Immanuel Quickley's restricted free agency adds a layer of intrigue. But the Raptors wouldn't have accepted him as primary compensation for OG Anunoby if they didn't intend to pay him outright or match whatever offer sheets he might receive. (And if they did, we need to have far more important discussions.)

Team president Masai Ujiri does seem like he's open to the idea of an expedited rebuild. Call it the Scottie Barnes effect. And given Toronto's proximity to $30 million in cap space, it wields the tools required for a #HotTeamSummer.

But Ujiri is not one to act on impulse. Just look at how long it took him to move Anunoby and Siakam. Any seismic decisions and transactions are unlikely to come before the 2025 trade deadline.

Work yourself into a tizzy over Scottie Barnes extension talks if you so choose. Just promise us that you won't dislocate your shoulder while making such a reach.

-Favale

Coming into this season, Jayson Tatum had already met the supermax criteria, making him eligible for a record-breaking five-year, $315 million extension in July.

It's difficult to imagine a chain of events that would cause the Boston Celtics to hesitate in offering all that cash at the first opportunity.

A first-round elimination in which Tatum laid multiple eggs might have done it, but he and the Celtics pulverized an undermanned Miami Heat to escape the first round and now have a choice matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers, who needed the full seven games to knock out the inexperienced, offensively inept Orlando Magic.

Tatum's getting the full bag.

Derrick White's extension negotiations could be more fraught, but only because he's played well enough to consider finishing out his deal and hitting free agency in 2025. Then again, Boston can offer up to four years and $123 million. It's hard to imagine White doing much better than that on the open market.

After those two high-profile decisions, Boston has some low-stakes free agents to consider, led by Luke Kornet and Xavier Tillman. Neither's departure would be an issue, and both could be back on minimums without much fuss.

-Hughes

The Portland Trail Blazers might be the only Western Conference team heading into 2024-25 without designs on a playoff spot. Still in the earliest stages of their post-Damian Lillard rebuild, they're not facing any real expectations yet.

That lack of pressure doesn't necessarily mean their summer will be boring, though.

A roster crunch is going to spur action, as will the presence of multiple veterans on sizable contracts—names who should be viewed as trade chips in Portland's current circumstances.

The Blazers have 14 players under contract for next year with as many as four more roster spots currently set aside for their slew of 2024 draft picks, all of which are inside the top 40.

As it stands, Portland will exceed the luxury-tax line if it guarantees deals for Toumani Camara and Jabari Walker while also paying its two incoming first-round picks (the one from the Golden State Warriors is top-four protected).

A projected cellar-dweller can't justify a payroll like Portland's, so something has to give.

Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams III, Deandre Ayton and Jerami Grant should all be on the block. Anfernee Simons might not be an ideal fit with Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe, and he continues to profile as a target for scoring-starved playoff teams like the Orlando Magic.

Activity is coming, particularly with rumors swirling about the future of head coach Chauncey Billups, but it's hard to find much drama when the stakes are this low.

-Hughes

Thought experiment: If the Oklahoma City Thunder had bowed out in the first round of the playoffs—or not even made the Dance at all—would anyone have panicked about their long-term prospects?

That feels like an extreme hypothetical, but it's not far off from most people's preseason expectations for an exceptionally young roster that won 40 games in 2022-23, top executive Sam Presti included.

Well, the Thunder finished their breakfast, to use Presti's term. And after racking up 57 wins, collecting the West's No. 1 seed and trouncing the New Orleans Pelicans in the first round, they've moved right on through lunch and dinner.

Everything that happens from here is cake, so OKC must be onto dessert.

The Thunder have an All-NBA first-teamer in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a Rookie of the Year runner-up in Chet Holmgren, a brilliant second star in Jalen Williams, oodles of cap space, a treasure trove of picks and no urgency to take any risks whatsoever.

OKC can explore Josh Giddey trades from a position of strength, search for star upgrades or do nothing at all.

Unless you believe club options on (or extensions for) Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins or Lindy Waters III will be in any way dramatic, there's nothing to see here...bar a contender with a half-decade runway ahead of it.

-Hughes

Victor Wembanyama's immediate ascent into superstardom ascribes a degree of instant and indefinite urgency to the San Antonio Spurs' timeframe.

With the option of chiseling out over $20 million in cap space and a draft-pick stash that would offend Mat Ishbia's sensibilities, they should be looking to reel in a higher-end floor general who, at minimum, packs more of a scoring punch than Tre Jones.

You know what happens if the Spurs don't operate in haste this summer, though?

Nothing except for another year's worth of internal development, which may turn out to be terrifying, because Wembanyama isn't yet a finished product. That's a striking revelation that doubles as a harrowing reality for the rest of the NBA.

We are not advocating for San Antonio to sit idle, but that may be the most likely outcome. These are the Spurs, the Association's billboard for conservative roster-building practices.

Wemby gives them unprecedented motivation, perhaps in the form of unforeseen pressure, to do something. But theirs is an urgency predicated more on opportunism and particularism, rather than alarmism.

Truth be told, San Antonio's biggest concern this summer is an ever-looming possibility that the mothership decides to call Wemby home.

-Favale

Sticking the Brooklyn Nets in Tier 4 will look foolish if they decide to jettison Mikal Bridges or consolidate their collection of first-rounders from Dallas, Philadelphia and Phoenix into their own blockbuster acquisition.

Here's the thing: It doesn't seem like they're on track to consider doing either.

General manager Sean Marks has again set expectations squarely in the middle during his end-of-season media availability. Uninspiring? You betcha. But we're not here to litigate just how unspectacularly ambiguous Brooklyn's direction looks.

Indeed, the Nets' own draft-pick situation—Houston controls their firsts through 2027—lends itself to possible aggression. But there's a difference between, say, poking around the Dejounte Murray trade market and attempting to win the (hypothetical) Trae Young sweepstakes.

Naming Jordi Fernández as head coach removes even more chaos potential from the table. And while the Nets' summer is not without stakes, Nic Claxton's free agency, Cam Thomas' extension eligibility, the availability of Dorian Finney-Smith and this summer's eventual catalog of Ben Simmons empty-gym hype videos hardly qualify as franchise-altering or -defining developments.

-Favale

The Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell deals gave the Utah Jazz enough draft equity to trade their way back into relevance, but the franchise has resisted a quick fix so far.

In fact, each of the last two seasons saw Utah throttle back after surprisingly solid starts, with 2023-24's 5-25 finish standing out as a first-class tank job.

With top executive Danny Ainge in charge, the concept of a timeline is tricky. His tenure with the Boston Celtics revealed his guiding principle to be opportunism, so no one should be surprised if the Jazz make a startlingly quick pivot should the right deal present itself.

Most likely, though, Utah will continue to slow-play its growth, developing its in-house young talent and utilizing its mountain of first-round picks to hopefully locate a cornerstone star.

That's not to say the Jazz are free of near-term decisions. Lauri Markkanen is eligible to renegotiate and extend his deal using some of Utah's projected $30 million in cap space. It can bump his 2024-25 salary from $18 million to as much as $42 million and then add up to $202 million over the next four years.

It may not take the full boat to appease the 26-year-old, but Utah will need to consider trading him if it can't reach any kind of agreement. Unrestricted free agency looms next summer, exposing the Jazz to the risk of losing of an in-prime All-Star forward for nothing.

-Hughes

Soap operas like to use the old "amnesia" trick to conjure up drama. A character resurfaces but can't remember who they are or anything about their past. Intrigue ensues.

For the Memphis Grizzlies, a little forgetfulness would actually calm things down. They need to operate as if 2023-24, a season cursed by injuries throughout the roster, never happened.

Sure, they could make things interesting by taking a long look at shipping out Marcus Smart, who never quite fit when healthy last season. And they could consider moving on from once-prized prospect Ziaire Williams now that GG Jackson and Vince Williams Jr. appear to be better short- and long-term options.

However, because this group can essentially run it back with the same roster it had reason to believe would win 50-plus games last year, it's hard to see any real pressure points emerging this summer.

Memphis has Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr., Smart, Brandon Clarke, Williams, Jackson and John Konchar under contract for at least the next two years. Add a backup point guard better than Derrick Rose (one year left at $3.3 million) and a capable center, and the Grizzlies' rotation will be just fine.

If they link their 2024 lottery pick to Luke Kennard's $14.7 million salary (team option), they could trade for an upgrade at either position of need.

Other than that, all Memphis has to do is trust that the team it built ahead of last season would have been good enough to finish among the West's top four. That's not a stretch given the talent and youth on hand here.

-Hughes

Normal teams in the Chicago Bulls' situation would be a notch or 12 higher up these chaos rankings. These Bulls, as we know, are not a normal team.

DeMar DeRozan, their best player, turns 35 in August and is scheduled to hit free agency. Patrick Williams is headed for restricted free agency on the heels of left foot surgery. Andre Drummond, an Early Bird free agent, is due for a raise.

While possible, re-signing everyone would probably vault Chicago into the luxury tax. That's not an acceptable outcome for a 39-win core. And that should drum up the pandemonium potential one way or another.

Do the Bulls burn it down? Let DeRozan walk or move him in a sign-and-trade? Deal Zach LaVine, even though he's at the nadir of his market value coming off right foot surgery that ended his season? Will they look to capitalize on Alex Caruso's remaining trade mystique as he heads into the final year of his contract?

Or could the Bulls go the other way completely and attempt to quadruple down on what's already in place with a blockbuster swing? They owe a top-10-protected pick to San Antonio in 2025, but they have the contracts, future firsts and unimpressive vibes that inflate the value of those firsts to do something substantial (reckless?).

Once more, though, these are the Bulls. So we already know how this ends: with their embracing action somewhere between nuclear and nothing, preserving their place inside the Eastern Conference pecking order above the Charlottes and the Washingtons but below the line of mediocrity.

Am I taking such a hardline stance in hopes it acts as a reverse jinx and Chicago, at long last, injects a little lot of much-needed chaos into its banal existence? Who's to say, really?

-Favale

The Orlando Magic head into the offseason having just completed a wildly encouraging campaign. They know who they are after an identity-defining defensive performance, and they know what they've got an exciting young roster led by Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs.

Those last two Magic mainstays are eligible for extensions this summer, and Banchero can add to his deal in 2025. While Orlando could lock up Wagner and Suggs early, it'll be important to onboard at least one more marquee piece before the incumbent members of the core get too expensive.

So, most of the drama for the Magic will be tied to how they use their cap space to add talent in free agency. Depending on how they handle Jonathan Isaac's non-guaranteed deal (he's not going anywhere after an elite per-minute defensive performance in 2023-24) and team options on Joe Ingles and Moritz Wagner, they could carve out a ton of cap space.

Most likely, the figure will sit around the $35 million mark, which should be enough to get involved in negotiations with Malik Monk, Klay Thompson, Buddy Hield, Gary Trent Jr. and anyone else with a half-decent outside shot.

Young, flexible and facing no questions about the type of help it needs (offense, offense, offense), the Magic entered the 2024 postseason playing with house money. Now, all they have to do is spend some of the real thing on free-agent upgrades to contribute in a deeper run next year.

-Hughes

At least the Indiana Pacers know what they're in for.

They wouldn't have coughed up three first-round picks if they didn't already have a good idea of what it would cost to keep Pascal Siakam in free agency. At the same time, the idea of paying a 30-year-old second star up to $247 million over five years is a little scary.

If things get contentious, the Pacers know they can come in well below that number and still make the top offer. Other teams can only present Siakam with four-year deals worth a maximum of $183 million. Indiana can go to $190 million or add that fifth season, two high-leverage factors in its favor.

Siakam knows what a bad look it would be for the Pacers to give up so much to acquire him, only to let him leave in free agency. Armed with that knowledge, it'll be a stunner if he doesn't get at least four years and $190 million. As long as Indiana doesn't come in low-balling, it can minimize any drama.

Even if Siakam comes back for something less than a quarter-billion dollars, the Pacers' breakthrough season and playoff series win mean they're past the forgiving stages of their quick rebuild. And once he joins Tyrese Haliburton in max-salary territory, Indiana will sit among the pressurized ranks of the contender class.

If you've got two All-NBA-caliber players in their primes, it's go time. That'll make every other marginal move and roster decision more important.

-Hughes

After flirting with a play-in berth as late as April and finishing with an ahead-of-schedule 41 wins, the Houston Rockets venture into the offseason with upside, flexibility and ambition.

ESPN's Tim MacMahon said in March, they "want to take a big, big swing in the trade market," (h/t NBACentral).

He added: "I don't know if both Şengün and Green are going to be here long-term. My guess—and I emphasize, guess—is that one or the other would end up getting moved at some point for them when they take their big swing."

In control of the Brooklyn Nets' first-round picks through 2027 and overstocked with young talent, Houston profiles as a trade-season power player. Its emphasis on adding experienced vets Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks paid off last year, but those expenses and the financial realities of rookie-scale deals could compel some action.

Houston may not have interest in pricey extensions for both Alperen Sengün and Jalen Green this summer with Jabari Smith Jr. (2025), Amen Thompson (2026) and Cam Whitmore (2026) coming due for their own extensions relatively soon.

Elevated pressure is a good problem for the Rockets. It's an indication their rebuild since trading James Harden has progressed beyond the initial stages. But this is where the real work begins.

It's one thing to go from the high lottery to respectability. It's another to advance into the contender class. Get this next set of franchise-defining decisions wrong, lock yourself into iffy contracts or swing an ill-conceived trade, and all the work to get out of the cellar could be for nought.

-Hughes

Head coach Jason Kidd's new contract extension takes one issue off the board, and the Dallas Mavericks' mostly encouraging foray into the second round of the playoffs should diminish the odds of major changes.

There was an alternative scenario in which, following a poor effort this past season, Dallas would have had to contend with Luka Dončić's potential unhappiness and the scary options associated with it.

Comparatively speaking, Derrick Jones Jr.'s unrestricted free agency will feel close to stress-free.

Dallas will almost certainly be right up against or over the $171 million luxury-tax line. With only a single first-rounder available to trade, the Mavs won't come close to winning potential bidding wars for stars on the market. Fortunately, the deals that brought aboard PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford at the deadline (and cost them the ability to trade more than that single first-rounder) significantly improved the roster—particularly on defense.

If Dallas has an ugly postseason exit, maybe the clock on a Dončić trade demand will start to tick a little faster. But in light of such a stellar closing run to the regular season, and after a full season of proof that Dončić and Kyrie Irving are a fine fit, there's less pressure this summer than there was in 2023.

-Hughes

Scrapping and clawing their way to a likely Eastern Conference finals cameo buys this New York Knicks core (and front office) gobs of goodwill.

Jalen Brunson has established himself as an All-NBA talent capable of party-crashing the middle of the MVP ballot in any given season. And despite what head coach Tom Thibodeau's rotations imply, the Knicks have surrounded him with the depth necessary to keep chugging along. A healthier Mitchell Robinson, Julius Randle and Bojan Bogdanović would go a long way. Ditto for a more seasoned version of Miles McBride.

At the same time, the clock continues to tick faster for these Knicks.

Brunson and Randle won't be All-Stars on below-market deals forever. Bogdanović's salary (non-guaranteed) will be money-matching ballast for only another year. OG Anunoby and Isaiah Hartenstein, meanwhile, will be free agents after this season.

Retaining Anunoby shouldn't be much of an issue. Cap-space teams can throw a wrench into the equation by offering him a four-year, $181.9 million max. The Knicks will have to match or exceed it. You don't fork over RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley without preparing for this exact scenario.

Hartenstein's future is more complicated. As an Early Bird free agent, the Knicks can't offer him more than a hair below $16.2 million in Year 1 of his next deal. That's far enough above the bigger mid-level exception ($12.9 million) to give New York a decided edge. It might not even take that much to re-sign him. But spit happens. A cap-space team could toss a massive two-year deal his way that coaxes him out of the Big Apple. You never know.

More importantly, the Knicks are now obligated more than ever to aggressively browse the trade market. They're too good as currently constructed to sit still, yet the idea a healthier Randle and Robinson alone will elevate them into the same stratosphere as the Celtics or any of the Western Conference superpowers goes too far. Their title stock would be predicated on picture-perfect health at the very least.

Brunson has opened variable pathways for these Knicks. They no longer need a best-player-on-the-team star. But they do need to upgrade from Randle as their No. 2. And they have the draft equity along with the matching salaries to make it happen. It's also easier to find that player than the one into which Brunson has transformed.

That's different from saying this is a mindless endeavor. The Knicks have championed patience on the blockbuster-trade front. And by no means should they go all-in just for the sake of doing something.

But the honeymoon phase for their timeline and cap sheet is nearing its conclusion, so they have to do something before it gets harder to do anything.

-Favale

Malik Monk's free agency makes up the meat and potatoes of the Sacramento Kings' impending offseason drama. Having Early Bird rights on him allows them to offer a four-year contract worth up to $78 million. Is that enough?

Debatable.

Monk's shooting and driving and how he leverages both into playmaking will be hot commodities. And at just 26 years old, he will appeal to cap-space teams not necessarily on immediate timelines. Sacramento's top-dollar offer may not cut it.

That would be, in no uncertain terms, a disaster. The Kings need Monk. They'll have a hard time approximating most of his utility using the mid-level exception and this year's lottery pick.

More than that, Sacramento has other voids it needs to fill. Adding a Monk replacement to the to-do list would complicate the offseason to untenable levels. The odds of the Kings improving without re-signing him are virtually nil.

Which isn't to suggest they'll have a noticeably easier time if he stays put. A $16.2 million starting salary for Monk nudges them into luxury-tax territory. Are they prepared to cannonball into that while using their mid-level exception and potentially adding money via trade? They should be. But it's not a given.

This says nothing of how difficult it'll be to identify and land the right additions. Free agency is unlikely to yield a wing stopper or high-end rim protector. The trade market is a better bet. But if Keegan Murray is off the table, Sacramento's offers will be built predominantly around matching salary and draft picks. Though that's not nothing, the absence of a blue-chip prospect precludes them from having the best-of-the-best offer in most, if not all, meaningful cases.

Does this make it more likely the Kings sell themselves on the wrong move? No move at all? Is the right player at the right place out there?

Missing the 2024 postseason is not the end of the world. The Kings are good enough to do (almost) nothing and re-enter the playoff clique in 2025. But after paying Sabonis and with paydays on the horizon for Murray and De'Aaron Fox, it does infuse this summer with an extra layer of urgency.

-Favale

Figuring out where the Denver Nuggets fit into this exercise is all sorts of impossible.

Trailing the Minnesota Timberwolves 2-0 in the Western Conference semifinals at this writing has paved the way for existential questions and doubt not previously on our bingo card.

If the reigning champs bow out before the conference finals in thoroughly discouraging fashion, it'll put their entire direction under the microscope.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's free agency (player option) will command the most attention no matter what. The Nuggets forecast as a second-apron team even if his price point ($15.4 million) stays the same—and he could command an annual raise.

Are the suits upstairs ready to shell out over $270 million in salary and luxury taxes just to keep the same core together? The answer won't be an airtight "yes" even if Denver repeats. Just imagine the internal equivocation that'll take place if the team flames out in the second round.

Restoring order on the court increases the likelihood that the Nuggets stomach lofty operating costs, if only because they have no way of beginning to replace KCP—or anybody else in the top six of the rotation—with minimum contracts and trade packages featuring Zeke Nnaji or Reggie Jackson (player option). There is a world in which this ranking proves too high.

There's also a scenario in which the Nuggets slingshot up the chaos hierarchy. It might even be the likelier outcome at this point.

A tough-to-watch loss versus Minnesota doesn't allow Denver to strictly reconcile KCP's free agency and signings and trades on the margins. It'll have to take a long look at its roster structure. And I'm not just talking about the two-timeline thing it's attempting with Peyton Watson and Christian Braun and, to a lesser extent, Julian Strawther, Hunter Tyson and Jalen Pickett.

Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray are both extension-eligible. Do their futures come into question if this postseason suffers an unsightly and premature ending? And what of Michael Porter Jr.? Does an unceremonious playoff exit leave the Nuggets to wonder whether they can afford to dole out max money to a third, sometimes fourth, option?

The time to panic and recalibrate isn't now. Nor is it guaranteed to come. But it is a possibility. And that in itself is unsettling relative to where Denver sat just days ago.

-Favale

A case can be made to vault the Milwaukee Bucks further up the Pyramid of Pyrotechnics, but I have no intention of making it.

Limited optionality should keep the Bucks from devolving into a sideshow. This notion implodes if either Giannis Antetokounmpo or Damian Lillard get wandering eyes, but nightmare scenarios feel like a long shot. Especially when Lillard, the real wild card here, doesn't sound like someone itching to thrust himself back into the trade-rumor mill.

This leaves the Bucks to deepen their rotation...without any real resources.

Milwaukee profiles as a second-apron team once it fleshes out the roster. That means no mid-level exception, no aggregating players in trades and no taking back more money than it sends out in said trades, among other restrictions.

The Bucks can dangle their 2031 first-rounder in talks, but that verges on reckless given the age of its core. They also don't have the dispensable money-matching tools to make the most of a pick that far off into the distance. If Giannis, Dame, Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez are off limits, that brings us to the $12.6 million salary of Bobby Portis Jr., who is both extension-eligible (more chaos) and perhaps too valuable to move.

Remove Portis, and Milwaukee's best trade chip becomes Pat Connaughton's $9.4 million price point. That's not even enough to bring back Alex Caruso.

There is a non-zero chance the Bucks are actually shallower next year. Other teams can (and should) pay Malik Beasley more than Milwaukee can offer, and the team didn't explore the utility of MarJon Beauchamp, AJ Green or Andre Jackson Jr. nearly enough to count them as part of the program. Bank on the No. 23 selection yielding a rookie-rotation player at your own risk.

Minimum-contract home runs need to be the Bucks' currency. And while that's a recipe for disaster once the season starts, it's not particularly anarchic around these parts—unless the constraints in which Milwaukee's working leads it to break up Lopez or Middleton into two or three rotation players.

-Favale

You might find it hard to see any real stakes for a Detroit team coming off a 14-win season. But these guys are the rare big-time loser facing actual urgency because the Pistons have been bad for far too long.

Detroit reached the conference finals six straight times starting in 2003 but has finished above .500 just once since that last appearance in 2008. None of the usual methods of improvement produced results. Seven coaching changes and nine top-10 picks since that last ECF trip, including top-five selections in each of the last three drafts, don't have it on a path to success.

Monty Williams flopped fantastically in the first year of his $78.5 million contract, ownership is looking to hire a decision-making executive over the top of general manager Troy Weaver but could also just replace him outright, and Cade Cunningham is eligible for a five-year, $225 million extension.

Normally, a top overall pick would secure that bag without much debate, but little about Cunningham's injury-hit, loss-laden tenure in Detroit has been normal.

The Pistons could have up to $60 million in cap space this summer, which will raise questions about an organizational direction. Will they add veterans who might cut into their young players' minutes in hopes of winning more than 23 games, their high total of the last three seasons? Will they absorb other teams' bad deals with picks attached, signaling patience? Who'll even be in charge of those decisions?

This is true "danger zone" territory for Detroit. The temptation to chase quick fixes is strong, and the fanbase is already sick of a rebuild almost two decades in the making.

-Hughes

Executive vice president of basketball operations David Griffin sounds like someone who's ready to shake up the New Orleans Pelicans. That paves the way for all sorts of chaos.

New Orleans has plenty of decisions on its plate even if you don't anticipate any headlining changes. Jonas Valančiūnas and Naji Marshall are free agents, and the Pelicans don't have the wiggle room beneath the tax to keep both (or even necessarily Valančiūnas alone) and avoid it.

Brandon Ingram and Trey Murphy are both extension-eligible. The former's future takes top billing here. Ingram has shown he can fit beside Zion Williamson, but their pairing isn't ideal. And he's not a talented enough playmaker, high volume enough three-point shooter or the every-level scorer required to optimize the roster both alongside and independent of Williamson.

Upgrading the center spot tops the to-do list for many outside—and probably inside—the organization. But the current roster makeup, combined with Williamson's repeated injury issues, demands that New Orleans scour the trade market for a caps-lock FLOOR GENERAL.

The Pelicans have the assets and contracts to make stuff happen. Are they willing to use them? What does that even look like? Who is really untouchable? Are they open to enter the tax for the right acquisition(s)?

And let's not forget they have to decide whether to keep the Los Angeles Lakers' 2024 first-rounder or defer the obligation to 2025.

Meaningful change is coming to New Orleans. It's just a matter of what form and scale it takes.

-Favale

The Atlanta Hawks can't blame their disappointing season on Trae Young's injury, as they were only 24-32 when he went out with a torn ligament in his hand shortly after the trade deadline.

The hoped-for improvement with a full season of Quin Snyder as head coach didn't materialize, every piece of the supporting cast not named Bogdan Bogdanović or Jalen Johnson underwhelmed, and the Young-Dejounte Murray backcourt pairing flopped.

Atlanta lost the minutes those two played together by 6.3 points per 100 possessions, and the most-used lineup with Young and Murray posted a whopping minus-15.3 net rating in 628 possessions.

Murray could be the one to go as the Hawks try to reshape the roster, but Young's departure would be a more significant change. Either way, GM Landry Fields seems to understand the verdict is in on his backcourt tandem.

He told reporters after the season: "The sample size is getting larger and larger and larger and assuming you're looking at specific lineups, and defensive and offensive ratings ... Yeah, you're starting to see that more and more. And yeah I can't lie to you, the numbers speak to themselves on that."

Johnson's extension negotiations could get interesting, and several other role players could be on the block. But the potential for a deal that sends away Young, long viewed as a franchise cornerstone, would be a seismic change.

-Hughes

It's hard to know how much the mediation between majority owner Glen Taylor and the group led by Alex Rodriguez and Marc Lore will impact the Minnesota Timberwolves' offseason.

It's not ideal that a distraction like this is cropping up during the most successful Wolves season in 20 years, but the pressing issues of the summer will be there for whoever emerges with control of the team. Chief among those, a 2024-25 payroll coming in right around the $190 million second-apron mark that would severely hamstring the team's flexibility going forward.

It would be a shame if ownership, citing cost concerns, busted this group up in order to cut salary. Karl-Anthony Towns has long been the player upon whom outside observers fixate when looking at Minnesota's hypothetical money-saving options.

Even if the Wolves intend to clean up their books, nothing has to happen this summer. They'll have until next year's trade deadline to duck the second apron and all its attendant penalties.

A cost-cutting deal this summer would be hasty and doubly disappointing considering how great Minnesota has looked with its current roster.

-Hughes

Disquiet and, possibly, disorder are already taking center stage for the Miami Heat.

Team president Pat Riley started the offseason by saying Jimmy Butler is not for sale and then, in the same press conference, ethering his star player's availability and from-the-couch troll job of the Celtics and Knicks.

Never mind that general manager Andy Elisburg is the real architect of the roster and the most important member of Miami's front office.

We should take Riley at his word that Butler won't be traded because NBA executives have never once ever told a lie. And Butler definitely won't take any issue with Riley's comments on his availability and extension eligibility.

The latter could prove to be a pivot point. Butler can sign an extension that puts him on the books through 2026-27. That's only one additional year, which doesn't seem like a big deal. (He has a 2025-26 player option.) But committing so much of the salary cap to him in his age-35, -36 and -37 seasons is addled with risk.

Cast aside Butler's future, and the Heat are left to grapple with a core that, despite its postseason darling-ism, has failed to lock up a top-six seed in each of the past two years.

Miami begins the summer one Caleb Martin (player option) raise away from brushing up the second luxury-tax apron. Its draft-pick situation is miles from dire, but it's not cushy, either.

The Heat weren't in a position to outbid other suitors in an equal market for available stars before sending out a 2027 first for Terry Rozier. Winning any sweepstakes this summer will require inclusion on the shortest, most strong-willed wish lists. And even then, there's no guarantees—as Miami found out firsthand last offseason with Damian Lillard.

So, to recap: Butler is getting older, the Heat are getting more expensive, and their appetite for talent acquisition may finally be exceeding the assets they have on hand.

What could go wrong?

-Favale

A first-round escape against the Orlando Magic helps, but the Cleveland Cavaliers are set for some tough decisions regardless of how they fare going forward.

Donovan Mitchell is eligible for an extension ahead of unrestricted free agency in 2025. If Cleveland can't get him to agree to a new deal that'll add years of stability to its core, it will have no choice but to look seriously at trading him.

From the moment the Cavs landed Mitchell in the 2023 offseason, rumors of him moving on to a bigger market were impossible to ignore.

It would be managerial malpractice to let him reach free agency, when he could walk away for nothing.

Beyond Mitchell, the Cavs may need to make a determination about their overall roster construction. Is Darius Garland, after a down season and a disappearing act against Orlando, the right backcourt counterpart for Mitchell? Should Jarrett Allen be shopped for someone who makes more sense offensively alongside Evan Mobley?

If this group gives the Celtics a series, maybe preserving the status quo will be acceptable. More likely, Cleveland is going to face some foundational issues this summer and could enter next year looking vastly different.

-Hughes

There is a chance we are overstating the tumult and turmoil that awaits the Golden State Warriors over the summer.

Managing team governor Joe Lacob told The TK Show (h/t CBS Sports' Sam Quinn) earlier this year that "our Plan 1, or 1A, is that we'd like to be out of the tax, and we think that we have a way to do that. That kind of is the plan, not just under the second apron."

Golden State's offseason gets a lot less complicated if it (incorrectly) decides Stephen Curry isn't good enough to resurrect the franchise's title window.

Then again, maybe not.

Who becomes cap casualties if the Warriors are dead set on not just cutting their tax bill, but altogether skirting one? Chris Paul (non-guaranteed) is a given. What about free-agent-to-be Klay Thompson? Will Golden State grease the wheels of an Andrew Wiggins salary dump to keep the former? Is Thompson an actual flight risk, or bound to return on a hometown discount? And what the frickity frick does a hometown discount even look like at this stage of his career?

What happens if the Warriors decide to call an audible and pursue a return to title contention? Are they prepared to incur the asset and luxury-tax costs of any blockbuster acquisitions? Is there even a blockbuster acquisition both accessible to them and capable of restoring their championship superpowers?

Jonathan Kuminga and the oft-forgotten Moses Moody, meanwhile, are both extension-eligible. Will both/either get one?

Finally, in the event Golden State's C-Suiters are content to let this dynastic core ride off into the sunset with a sub-mediocre backdrop, should we discount the possibility that Draymond Green or even Curry himself provides the organization with an ultimatum?

-Favale

Say this for the Phoenix Suns since Mat Ishbia took control as governor in 2023: They've never been boring.

Blockbuster deals for Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal, along with smaller ones that landed Jusuf Nurkić and Grayson Allen, completely remade the roster at the cost of virtually every draft asset and shred of flexibility available.

Now, in the wake of a first-round sweep at the hands of the Minnesota Timberwolves, Phoenix requires changes but lacks the ability to make many.

Head coach Frank Vogel, whose offense reportedly didn't please Kevin Durant, is a goner. In addition to a new coaching hire, the Suns have to build out a superior supporting cast with little more than minimums to offer. Hamstrung by the second apron and bereft of picks to trade, they will need miracles to improve.

That gloomy short- and long-term outlook is exactly the kind of thing that triggers restlessness in stars. Devin Booker's max extension just kicked in this past season, and he hasn't agitated for change. But Durant is a habitual wanderer who might actually bring back enough in a trade to get the Suns out of the bind they're in.

Massive expectations (so far unmet), uncertainty over the next head coach, the potential for trade requests and all the rest would be tough to manage for any ownership group. But with Ishbia in charge, discrediting the media and claiming the house isn't on fire as flames rise all around him, who knows how chaotic things could get?

-Hughes

Offseason mode is activated, so the time has come for the Philadelphia 76ers to put their much-ballyhooed cap-space plan into action.

It's just, er, what does that look like?

Philly can dredge up around $65 million in cap space. But while this is The Number that gets bandied about, it's not actually The Number with which the team will be working.

Reaching the $65 million marker requires the Sixers to renounce all of their own free agents except Tyrese Maxey, waive all of their non-guarantees and jettison the No. 16 pick without taking on any 2024-25 money. That isn't going to happen. Not only does this free-agency class fail to pass the sniff test, but Philly also has incumbents worth trying to keep.

Somebody needs to convince Nicolas Batum not to retire right the hell now. De'Anthony Melton is beyond useful if his back isn't blown to smithereens. Kelly Oubre Jr. just played like the best bargain in the NBA, and as a non-Bird free agent, the Sixers will need cap space to keep him if the $8 million room exception doesn't get it done.

Will Kyle Lowry return for the minimum? Will Philly simply guarantee Paul Reed's contract to ensure it has a competent backup and fill-in for Joel Embiid? Head coach Nick Nurse dusted off Buddy Hield by the end of the first round. His shooting has value. He cannot be dismissed

Tobias Harris—well, all of Philly is probably perfectly fine with him inevitably getting the bag from the wayward Detroit Pistons.

In reality, we don't know how much cap space the Sixers will create. Nor do we know they'll use it. The free-agent market is sparse. Can they pry Paul George (player option) from the Los Angeles Clippers? Better yet, at likely max money, should they even want to?

Cap space, of course, needn't be earmarked for free agency. It has value on the trade market, but to what end? Though Philly can deal up to five first-rounders this summer, sellers typically prioritize packages with actual bodies. The Sixers don't have those types of proposals.

Does that automatically remove them from the running if guys like Mikal Bridges, Jimmy Butler, Kevin Durant and Lauri Markkanen, among others, shake loose? If they can't hook a star, will they pivot into Operation Long-Term Depth? Or will they go the placeholder route in hopes that a game-changer or two ambles onto the chopping block by the 2025 trade deadline?

Somewhat secondary to all of this, Embiid is extension-eligible. The Sixers have to offer him one, because they have to. Will he sign it? Regardless of whether he does, Philly is running out of time. He turned 30 in March, and his body is always dealing with...something.

Punting on another half-season, let alone a full one, doesn't seem so palatable from afar. Is the organization prepared to act like it? And in the end, will the premium the Sixers placed on flexibility be worth it? Or does next year begin with us all shrugging our shoulders as beleaguered Philly fans repeat to themselves over and over and over again "Hey, at least Maxey is only 23."

-Favale

Tumult is a constant of any LeBron James team. The Los Angeles Lakers have never been any different. They're not about to start now.

LeBron himself can put their entire summer on tilt by opting out of his contract. Even if you consider the threat of his leaving minimal, his return to the Purple and Gold will no doubt be conditional upon improvements.

That starts with the head coach. Darvin Ham is already out. Depending on whom you speak to, his successor will either be Ty Lue, Mike Budenholzer, Kenny Atkinson, JJ Redick, whoever LeBron wants, whoever Anthony Davis prefers, Erik Spoelstra's clone, etc.

And yet the chaos factor is higher when looking at the roster. Let's assume LeBron and AD both stay put. The Lakers aren't running it back again. They can't. They shouldn't have this year.

What becomes of D'Angelo Russell (player option)? How aggressive will the Lakers be on the trade market? If the opportunity to bag a Trae Young or Donovan Mitchell presents itself, will they pounce on a three-star model imperiled by the punitive second-apron and the depth challenges it creates? Or will they look to break up their three trade-eligible first-round picks into multiple bodies that reinvent the top six to eight of their rotation?

Regardless of what deals they strike, who is the outgoing salary? Are we talking Gabe Vincent and/or Jarred Vanderbilt? Or will L.A. be open to or forced into surrendering Rui Hachimura and/or Austin Reaves?

Is Bronny James somehow on this roster next year?

Like always, Tinseltown's offseason is inundated with defining questions. But with LeBron heading into his age-40 season, they're taking on an even more urgent tone.

-Favale

Kawhi Leonard inked a three-year extension in January, so it logically followed that Paul George was next. The two were a package deal on arrival and seemed certain to re-up in tandem.

Now, with the Clippers bounced in the first round by the Dallas Mavericks and no extension in place for George, uncertainty is creeping in.

"Yeah, if it works out that way, absolutely," the 34-year-old told reporters when asked if he imagined sticking with Leonard and James Harden (an unrestricted free agent) in L.A.

That qualified response is a long way from a full commitment, and it's hard not to get hung up on "if it works out that way" with the Philadelphia 76ers waiting in the wings. Their heap of cap space and the desire to land a star loom large; Philly, it seems, would like things to work out another way.

But wait, there's more.

The Athletic's Sam Amick and Law Murray reported the Clippers' plan to pursue an extension with head coach Tyronn Lue over the summer. With the Lakers reportedly interested, he figures to have major leverage and could command a huge pay bump...if he stays put. Questions about George and Leonard—not to mention extension eligibility for Terance Mann, Norman Powell and Amir Coffey—will have to inform his decision.

All this as the Clippers prepare to move into a glistening new arena for the 2024-25 season, a transition they'd probably like to make with a starry, contending roster.

Clippers owner Steve Ballmer has typically made money no object. He could green light the largest possible salaries for George, Harden and Lue to keep things together. But after five seasons in the Kawhi-PG era, no Finals appearances and just three total postseason wins since 2021, it's hard to see the upside of that plan.

-Hughes

Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.

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