CeeDee Lamb, Predicted Outcomes for Next Round of Superstar NFL WR Contracts

Elite wide receivers are highly valuable in today's pass-heavy NFL.

Three such wideouts (Michael Pittman Jr., Mike Evans and Calvin Ridley) received north of $20 million per season in free agency this offseason, with Ridley departing the Jacksonville Jaguars for the Tennessee Titans. A number of other notable receivers were traded.

Stefon Diggs is now in Houston and is entering a contract year. Keenan Allen is a member of the Chicago Bears. Jerry Jeudy got a new home and a big contract from the Cleveland Browns.

That could just be the beginning.

Some of the NFL's biggest names at the position are either eligible for extensions or are entering a contract year, including Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings, Ja'Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals and CeeDee Lamb of the Dallas Cowboys. Whenever one of them inks an extension, it will likely reset the market at the position—and then the others will look to top it.

Several other star wideouts are looking for big paydays this offseason, but whether they will get them remains to be seen. Some will break the bank. Some will have to wait. And others will fall in-between.

Here's a look at which will be which—and the projected futures of some of the best in the NFL at what they do.

CeeDee Lamb of the Dallas Cowboys was already a star before the 2023 season. He increased in catches, receiving yards and touchdowns in each of his first three NFL seasons, including 107 catches for 1,359 yards and nine touchdowns in 2022.

But last year, Lamb truly exploded. His 135 receptions led the NFL. Lamb tallied 1,749 receiving yards, most in the NFC. And only Mike Evans of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Tyreek Hill of the Miami Dolphins had more touchdown catches than Lamb's 12.

Now that he's entering the option year of his rookie deal, Lamb wants to be paid like the superstar he has become—and he's reportedly willing to hold out until he is.

On many levels, this appears to be a no-brainer for the Cowboys. Lamb had nearly 1,000 more receiving yards than any other player on the Dallas roster last season. But team owner Jerry Jones told reporters that it's not just as simple as writing a check.

"He's out there and he's more valuable than anybody else," Jones said. "But that valuable, to have to give up four or five players to have him, you have to get that reconciled. That's what I'm trying to say. It's a lot quicker and easier said than done. Whoever has CeeDee, and I hope it's us, they're going to use him," Jones said. "You have to. You just have to get that kind of mileage out of him."

Jomes can posture and pontificate all he wants, and Dallas does face similarly expensive decisions with quarterback Dak Prescott and edge-rusher Micah Parsons. But a Cowboys team that annually enters the season with Super Bowl aspirations can't afford to alienate their best offensive player.

Lamb will get his payday—and reset the wide receiver market while doing it.

Projected Outcome: Lamb signs a five-year, $155 million contract in 2024 with Dallas that includes $93 million in guarantees.

For the Cowboys, the Lamb situation is fairly simple. They want to make a deep playoff run, and they aren't doing that without him. So, they will eventually pay him—it's just a matter of when and how much.

Things are significantly more complicated with Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings.

After watching quarterback Kirk Cousins depart in free agency, the Vikings are undergoing something of a reset. Jefferson has already turned down a contract that would have paid him $30 million per season, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. And the 24-year-old told Adam Schein of Sirius XM in February that he expects his second contract to be a whopper.

"I want to break the bank and I want to be a part of an organization that wants me and to really give me what I deserve. I feel like eventually the Vikings will do what they need to do to have me in the building, but I don't really know at this very moment. Only time will tell," Jefferson said.

"I feel like I have the right people in my circle to negotiate and do what's right. I feel like this whole process of how we handled things and how we went accordingly with the season and the contract stuff, I feel like we did a great job with it."

Jefferson certainly has a strong case for that megadeal. Over his first three seasons, Jefferson tallied more receiving yards than any player in NFL history. He eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards in 2023 despite playing in only 10 games.

There has been speculation that the Vikings could trade Jefferson as part of their reset. But while addressing the media at the combine, Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah called reports Jefferson could be dealt "completely false."

Anything is possible if the right offer comes along, but the most likely outcome here remains the best wide receiver in the NFL getting his wish and becoming the highest-paid non-quarterback in the league.

Projected Outcome: Jefferson signs a five-year, $170.5 million contract in 2024 with Minnesota that includes $123 million in guarantees.

Of all the wide receivers featured here, no player is less likely to go to another team than Ja'Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals. There is virtually zero chance that the Bengals will let Joe Burrow's college teammate and favorite target go anywhere.

The question is when the Bengals will extend Chase. Unlike Lamb and Jefferson, Chase is only just now entering his fourth NFL season. Per ESPN's Ben Baby, the Bengals and Chase haven't even begun to discuss an extension, in part because Chase wants to see what Jefferson gets before setting his own price.

"I don't know nothing about what's going to happen yet until [Jefferson signs]," Chase said in December. "I need to see more numbers from him."

That statement should buckle the knees of Bengals bean-counters. But executive vice president Katie Blackburn told reporters that the team is confident a deal will eventually get done.

"I can't say for sure where any of it will go," Blackburn said. "But we certainly are going to study up on it and see what we can figure out to try to get the best result we can for the club one way or another."

The calculus in Cincinnati is complicated by Burrow's own megadeal. His cap hit is $29.7 million this season and well north of $45 million in 2025.

It's going to take time to work out the numbers here—enough so that Chase may not get his payday until the regular season or even next year. But that payday is coming, and it might even surpass Jefferson's if Chase goes out and has a huge 2024 campaign.

Projected Outcome: Chase signs a four-year, $133.5 million contract in 2025 with Cincinnati that includes $95 million in guarantees.

Ja'Marr Chase isn't the only Bengals wide receiver who's looking to break the bank this year. Tee Higgins played out the final year of his rookie contract in 2023 before getting franchise-tagged for $21.8 million this year.

That one-year deal apparently didn't sit well with Higgins, who requested a trade out of the Queen City. For her part, per ESPN's Ben Baby, Bengals executive vice president Katie Blackburn hasn't ruled out retaining both Chase and Higgins long-term.

"We like these guys," Blackburn said. "We have to work within the salary cap. So, we have to figure out what that will mean, and how it can all stay together. That's just what we have to work on and see where it takes us."

Unfortunately, Higgins, Chase and Burrow all but certainly can't stay together. The team realistically can't afford a $50 million quarterback and having $60 million or so per season tied up in two wide receivers. That would account for 43 percent of the Bengals' 2024 salary cap.

Yes, there are ways to play with those numbers. But the bill will come due at some point, and playing kick the can could cripple the cap in a few years.

As if that wasn't bad enough, the return on trades for wide receivers like Stefon Diggs and Keenan Allen this year has been weak sauce. Granted, those receivers are older, but they are also more proven and legitimate No. 1 options. It's not as certain that Higgins can carry a passing attack.

If the Bengals can only get a Day 2 pick for Higgins, they might as well do what they usually do after they franchise-tag players—watch him play out the tag year, depart in free agency and get a third-round compensatory selection in 2026.

Projected Outcome: Higgins plays in Cincinnati under the franchise tag in 2024 before leaving in free agency and signing a four-year, $99.7 million contract with the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2025 that includes $59 million in guarantees.

The San Francisco 49ers are the reigning NFC champions, and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk was a big part of that success. In his fourth season, Aiyuk racked up a career-high 1,342 receiving yards, which marked his second straight 1,000-yard season.

That statistical success has set Aiyuk up for a big-time payday. But given all the cap space the Niners already have locked up in players like running back Christian McCaffrey, wide receiver Deebo Samuel and tight end George Kittle, it's not as simple as just handing Aiyuk a bag of cash, especially with quarterback Brock Purdy eligible for an extension in 2025.

During a recent appearance on the Gold Standard Podcast Network (h/t Marc Adams of 49ers Webzone), Michael Silver of the San Francisco Chronicle acknowledged that there are a number of potential options for the Niners where Aiyuk is concerned.

"If he's gonna be a pain in the butt, to the level Deebo was, and you just don't want to deal with that...maybe as the draft approaches, and as you're in real-time in the draft, and looking at who's on the board, you're listening and you're poking around," Silver said. "So, I think all things could happen.

"I think they could get him to play on the fifth-year option. I think they could sweeten the fifth year, and kick the can. I think they could trade him even in real-time during the draft, or I think they could pay him, knowing that probably means Deebo, Kittle, or both are gone after next year, and you worry about it next year. So, I'm keeping an eye on the whole thing. It's a fascinating, internal debate, and I know they think about it that way all the time."

Like the other wideouts featured here, Aiyuk likely wouldn't be happy playing on his option year in 2024. He'd probably be even more unhappy if the 49ers franchise-tag him next offseason, even if it's just to buy time to work out an extension.

However, players have precious little leverage in these situations. And for a Niners team trying to keep its Super Bowl window open as long as possible, it might not be a bad idea to kick the can for a year.

Projected Outcome: Aiyuk plays in San Francisco under his current contract in 2024 and receives the franchise tag in 2025.

Amon-Ra St. Brown of the Detroit Lions may be more motivated than anyone else featured here to sign an extension soon. The reason is simple: Three years into his career, St. Brown hasn't made that much money.

As a fourth-round pick in 2021, St. Brown has earned only about $3.2 million across his first three NFL seasons. That number will more than double in 2024, but that isn't much cheese compared to other star wideouts.

And make no mistake, St. Brown has become a star wide receiver and a vital component of the Detroit offense. In each of the past two seasons, St. Brown has surpassed both 100 receptions and 1,000 receiving yards. In 2023, the 24-year-old set career highs across the board, hauling in 119 of 164 targets for 1,515 yards and 10 touchdowns as Detroit advanced to the NFC title game.

There were some recent rumbles that St. Brown could be getting his payday soon. Dianna Russini of The Athletic reported in March that St. Brown and the Lions were close to an agreement on a contract extension that would average between $26-$28 million a season.

The two sides still have yet to finalize said extension, but there's too much motivation on both sides here for a deal not to get done. The Lions need to lock up Jared Goff's No. 1 target ahead of what they hope is another deep playoff run, and St. Brown needs to be paid more in line with what he has accomplished in his NFL career.

Projected Outcome: St. Brown signs a four-year, $108.5 million contract in 2024 with Detroit that includes $64 million in guarantees.

As DeVonta Smith of the Philadelphia Eagles enters his fourth NFL season, there's little question that the 25-year-old has earned a raise. Despite functioning as Philadelphia's No. 2 wideout behind A.J. Brown, Smith has topped 1,000 receiving yards each of the past two years.

The Eagles will all but certainly pick up Smith's fifth-year option for 2025, which will pay him $15.6 million. And he said back in February that he's not especially concerned with when a long-term extension gets done.

"It's all in God's hands," Smith said, via EJ Smith of the Philadelphia Inquirer. "At the end of the day, extension or not, I'm going to have to come in and do what I have to do. It's God's timing, so he's going to put me in the right place at the right time. It's been amazing. I love playing in Philly. I don't think there's a better sports city in the U.S."

With that said, Reuben Frank of NBC Sports Philadelphia sees logic in getting a deal done sooner as opposed to later.

"You certainly wouldn't expect him to go over (A.J.) Brown's $25 million per year figure," he said. "But if Ridley and Pittman are worth $23 million per year, Smith is worth more. I would think four years, $94 million gets it done. That would give him the 8th-highest average annual salary among receivers and put him right around D.J. Metcalf and Deebo Samuel. It's a fair deal for the Eagles and a fair deal for Smith.

"[Eagles general manager Howie] Roseman has never not signed a promising young player to a second contract, and he won't this time. This will get done. It just might take a little while."

If Smith is amenable to those terms, Philly will likely re-up him before the season. But if he wants more, the Eagles have the option year and franchise tag in their back pocket—although another big year would just drive his price that much higher.

Perhaps $50-plus million in guarantees will grease the wheels a bit.

Projected Outcome: Smith signs a four-year, $94.5 million contract in 2024 with Philadelphia that includes $52 million in guarantees.

On one hand, it seems fairly obvious that the Miami Dolphins should extend Jaylen Waddle. He has surpassed 1,000 receiving yards in all three of his NFL seasons, including two playing opposite Tyreek Hill. Per Mark Inabinett of AL.com, the former Alabama star is one of just eight players in league history to amass at least 251 receptions for 3,385 yards and 18 touchdowns over his first three years.

On the other, the Dolphins have one of the trickier cap situations in the league. Per Over the Cap, the Dolphins have the fourth-least cap space in the league. With quarterback Tua Tagovailoa entering the last year of his rookie deal, he's due an extension that will sail past $40 million per season. And it would cost the better part of $29 million next year to exercise the fifth-year options on Waddle and edge-rusher Jaelan Phillips.

However, despite those financial realities, Dolphins general manager Chris Grier was quick to shoot down the notion that trading Waddle could be on the table.

"No thoughts of trading Jaylen Waddle," Grier told reporters at the NFL Scouting Combine. "We want him here for a long time, and we think he's a big part of our now and our future here. He's a great person on and off the field, and we still think as good as he is, he still has runway to keep getting better."

The Dolphins are in a similar situation to the Cincinnati Bengals, but there's one important exception. Waddle's option year means the cap-strapped Dolphins don't have to make a decision on Waddle yet. In fact, depending on they structure Tagovailoa's next contract, they could ostensibly wait until 2026 to decide whether to extend or franchise-tag Waddle.

At that point, Hill will be 32, in the final year of his contract and carrying a cap hit of over $56 million. In other words. Miami may well decide at that point that Waddle is the wideout of the two whom it wants to keep.

Projected Outcome: Waddle will play 2024 on his current contract and 2025 on his fifth-year option before being extended or franchise-tagged in 2026.

Not that long ago, Nico Collins' future appeared much clearer. After a breakout season with the Houston Texans in 2023 in which he caught 80 passes for 1,297 yards and eight touchdowns, the 25-year-old appeared like a prime candidate for a multi-year extension worth somewhere around $22-24 million annually.

Then the Texans not only traded for Stefon Diggs but wiped out all but one year of his contract. Now both Diggs and Collins will be free agents next year, which has muddied the waters considerably for the latter.

In an interview with Fubo Sports (via Coty Davis of Texans Daily), Collins said that while he'd certainly appreciate a raise, he's also willing to wait a year to get it—and show that his 2023 explosion was no fluke.

"If it comes early, it comes early. But my mindset is just go play ball and let it all play out. I'm not chasing it," Collins said. "I want to get paid; everybody wants to get paid. But just, you gotta let it come to you. I know it's coming, but it's a business. I've got a lot more to prove."

It's an interesting predicament for Houston general manager Nick Caserio. If he extends Collins now, it will be less expensive than it would be in 2025 if Collins goes out and backs up last year's success. If he waits, he can see whether Collins can do just that and how Diggs will fare in his first season in Houston.

Waiting would give Caserio more options. That includes franchise-tagging Collins in 2025 if the team decides to re-sign Diggs, whose tag number next year will be north of $27 million.

While speaking to reporters at the combine, Caserio acknowledged that balancing present and future can be tricky.

"(Collins) could be a player that maybe he's a part of the future. You're dealing with the present. You're focused on the short term. But part of our responsibility is to kind of think ahead a little bit and just try to make good sound decisions for the team and the organization."

He'll play the long game here.

Projected Outcome: Collins will play 2024 on his current contract before being extended or franchise-tagged in 2025.