Kentucky Derby 2024 Post Positions: Updated Picks and Predictions After Draw

While the post draw for the Kentucky Derby has traditionally taken place on the Monday before the race, it was done on Saturday this year, a full week before the 150th Run for the Roses.

This means we've had some time to digest how the 2024 field shapes up. Early favorite Fierceness, for example, drew the No. 17 post, the only starting position that has never produced a Derby winner.

Sierra Leone, another early favorite, drew the No. 2 post, a position that hasn't produced a winner since Affirmed won it all in 1978.

Fierceness, Sierra Leone and the rest of a talented 2024 field will compete for a record $5 million prize purse on Saturday.

Here, you'll find a look at the full field, the latest odds and race information, along with some early predictions.

Where: Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky

Date: Saturday, May 4

Post Time: 6:57 p.m. ET

Prize Purse: $5 million ($3.1 million to winner)

TV and Live-Stream Schedule (ET):

10:30 a.m. - 12:00 p.m.: FanDuel TV

12:00 - 2:30 p.m.: USA and Peacock

2:30 - 7:30 p.m.: NBC and Peacock

7:30 p.m. - Final Race.: FanDuel TV

Check out Vivid Seats for tickets to the 150th Kentucky Derby and other horse racing events.

1. Dornoch (trainer Danny Gargan): 20-1

2. Sierra Leone (trainer Chad Brown): 3-1

3. Mystik Dan (trainer Kenny McPeak) 20-1

4. Catching Freedom (trainer Brad Cox): 8-1

5. Catalytic (trainer Saffie Joseph Jr.): 30-1

6. Just Steel (trainer Wayne Lukas): 20-1

7. Honor Marie (trainer Whit Beckman): 20-1

8. Just A Touch (trainer Brad Cox): 10-1

9. Encino (trainer Brad Cox): 20-1

10. T O Password (trainer Daisuke Takayanagi): 30-1

11. Forever Young (trainer Yoshito Yahagi): 10-1

12. Track Phantom (trainer Steve Asmussen): 20-1

13. West Saratoga (trainer Larry Demeritte): 50-1

14. Endlessly (trainer Michael McCarthy): 30-1

15. Domestic Product (trainer Chad Brown): 30-1

16. Grand Mo The First (trainer Victor Barboza Jr.): 50-1

17. Fierceness (trainer Todd Pletcher): 5-2

18. Stronghold (trainer Phil D'Amato: 20-1

19. Resilience (trainer Bill Mott): 20-1

20. Society Man (trainer Danny Gargan): 50-1

21. Epic Ride (trainer John Ennis): 50-1

22. Mugatu (trainer Jeff Engler): 50-1

Odds via KentuckyDerby.com

Mage won the 2023 Kentucky Derby as a 15-1 long shot, and it's entirely possible we see another non-favorite win this year.

Just a Touch, for example, will break from the same No. 8 gate from which Mage won. While the colt hasn't won since his maiden special weight in January, he finished second in both the Gotham Stakes and Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.

Trainer Brad Cox is one of the best in the business and trained Mandaloun, who was named the 2021 Derby winner following Medina Spirit's disqualification. While not a true dark horse, Just a Touch is a second-tier entrant that shouldn't be slept on.

Forever Young, a Japanese horse trained by Yoshito Yahagi is another competitor to keep an eye on. While a Japanese horse has never won the Derby, Forever Young carries an undefeated record through five races into Churchill Downs.

"He's a very unique horse," jockey Ryusei Sakai said through interpreter Kate Hunter, per Jason Frakes of the Louisville Courier Journal. "Up to this point he's never been beaten."

While the No. 11 gate hasn't produced a Derby winner since 1988, Code of Honor broke from that position and finished second in 2019. Forever Young is a solid pick to finish in the money and could well make history on Saturday.

The prediction here, though, is that history of a different sort will be made at the 150th Kentucky Derby. Fierceness has a chance to end the Derby drought of the No. 17 post thanks to a strong team of trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez.

Velazquez is a three-time Derby winner (2011, 2017, 2020) and guided National Treasure to victory in last year's Preakness.

Pletcher, meanwhile, trained 2010 Derby winner Super Saver and 2017 champion Always Dreaming, who was ridden by Velazquez. Fierceness has won two of his last three races, including last month's Florida Derby.

While history doesn't favor the No. 17 post, Pletcher doesn't appear concerned.

"I'm fine with it," Pletcher said, per Frank Angst of BloodHorse. "We were hoping to draw outside somewhere."

While Velazquez will have to cover some ground and fight for early positioning, he should avoid any chance of getting stuck behind the pack or pinned against the rail. His experience and Fierceness' blazing speed will finally deliver a winner from the No. 17 gate.