NBA Free Agency Fool's Gold: Whoever Forms Next Big 3 Faces Major Challenges

For the past 15 years, Big Threes have been all the rage in the NBA. From the late-2000s Boston Celtics to the Miami Heatles, the mid-2010s Cleveland Cavaliers and the late-2010s Golden State Warriors, the key to championship contention has been amassing as many stars as possible and hoping for good health and good fortune in the playoffs.

That may no longer be the case thanks to the NBA's new collective bargaining agreement. It introduced harsh roster-building restrictions for the teams with the most expensive payrolls across the league, which the Phoenix Suns learned the hard way this year.

Fresh off disappointing first-round exits of their own, the Los Angeles Lakers and Philadelphia 76ers will face that same conundrum this offseason. The Lakers are rumored to be hunting for a third star, per Jovan Buha of The Athletic, while the Sixers now have the ability to create roughly $65 million in cap space.

The Suns, who are fresh off a first-round sweep at the hands of the Minnesota Timberwolves, are a cautionary tale about the difficulty of building around Big Threes under the new CBA. The Lakers, Sixers and other teams considering a three-max model should take heed.

Teams above the new second apron—set $17.5 million above the luxury-tax line this season—face a host of new roster-building restrictions. Starting last summer, they could take back only 110 percent of the salary they sent out in a trade rather than 125 percent, and they lost access to any mid-level exception in free agency. Beginning this summer, they lose the ability to aggregate contracts in trades, which is a seismic change.

The Suns' Guinea-Pig Run

When the Suns acquired Bradley Beal last offseason, they effectively locked themselves into being a second-apron team moving forward. They doled out minimum contracts at the start of free agency and had both hits (Eric Gordon, Drew Eubanks and Josh Okogie) and misses (Keita Bates-Diop, Chimezie Metu and Yuta Watanabe), but that was their only choice. They couldn't offer more than a minimum contract to external free agents.

The Suns' Big Three of Beal, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant played 41 games together during the regular season, and they posted a plus-6.6 net rating when on the floor with one another. The Suns went 26-15 in the games in which all three played, but injuries caused Beal to miss 29 games and Booker to miss 14.

The Suns beat the Timberwolves in all three of their regular-season matchups, which made them a popular upset pick heading into the playoffs. However, the Wolves threw some early counterpunches in their series, and the Suns didn't have the personnel to respond.

Grayson Allen was a critical part of their regular-season rotation, but he suffered an ankle injury early in the series and scored only seven points across the first two games before missing the last two. With Allen hobbled, Booker, Durant and Beal combined for 283 of the Suns' 413 total points against the Wolves.

Head coach Frank Vogel won't be back next year—the Suns fired him and have since hired former Milwaukee Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer—but all three of Booker, Durant and Beal figure to be. (Beal has a no-trade clause that prevents Phoenix from moving him without his consent.) Both Durant and Booker emphasized the importance of continuity during their exit interviews, but the Suns also might not have much of a choice.

The Suns did make a "pre-agency" move at the trade deadline, acquiring Royce O'Neale for three second-round picks. They acquired his Bird rights as well, which means they can offer him more than a minimum contract this summer even though they're projected to be well over the salary cap. Beyond that, though, they'll once again be limited to offering nothing but minimum contracts to external free agents.

Should Lakers Go Star-Hunting?

After the Lakers' first-round loss to the Nuggets, Buha, Shams Charania and Sam Amick of The Athletic reported that they were "expected to be aggressive in the market, with Atlanta's Trae Young one of the more intriguing names out there." If they do go after Young or another star on a max or near-max contract, they'll likely have to obliterate their roster's depth to do so.

D'Angelo Russell has a $18.7 million player option that he could pick up to facilitate a deal for a star. Otherwise, the Lakers likely would have to include at least three of Rui Hachimura ($17.0 million), Austin Reaves ($13.0 million), Gabe Vincent ($11.0 million) and Jarred Vanderbilt ($10.7 million) for salary-matching purposes in any trade for a star.

If LeBron James were to pick up his $51.4 million player option, he and Anthony Davis would combine to earn $94.6 million next season. Young is owed $43.0 million in 2024-25, so he, James and Davis alone would cost nearly $137.7 million. The NBA's latest projection has the salary cap landing at $141 million, the tax threshold at $171.3 million and the second apron at $189.5 million.

That means the Lakers would have roughly $51.8 million to fill out 12 roster spots before crossing the second apron. Minimum contracts for veterans with two or more years of experience are projected to be nearly $2.1 million, so that accounts for roughly $25 million alone.

Depending on who the Lakers kept after trading for their third star, they might be able to round out their roster with enough depth around their new Big Three to be an actual contender. But given the injury histories of James and Davis in recent years, depleting depth sounds like the exact opposite of what the Lakers should be angling to do this offseason.

PG13 to Philly?

The Sixers' reported interest in Los Angeles Clippers forward Paul George is one of the worst-kept secrets in the NBA. ESPN's Ramona Shelburne recently said on the Hoop Collective podcast that both the Sixers and Orlando Magic were "paying very close attention" to George "because both of them have the money to throw at him and have a need for a wing just like him."

Thanks to their first-round loss to the New York Knicks, Joel Embiid is the only player who's under guaranteed contract with the Sixers beyond this year. Paul Reed's $7.7 million salary for 2024-25 would have become guaranteed had the Sixers won a playoff series this year, but it's now fully non-guaranteed until Jan. 10, 2025.

Embiid is set to earn $51.4 million next season, and it's safe to say that the Sixers aren't parting ways with Tyrese Maxey, particularly after his Game 5 heroics against the Knicks. They'll likely keep his minuscule $13.0 million cap hold on their books at first, conduct the rest of their offseason business and then re-sign him to a five-year max extension.

If the Sixers waive Reed and Ricky Council IV, decline their team option on Jeff Dowtin Jr., trade their first-round pick (No. 16) and renounce the rights to all of their free agents, they could create roughly $65 million in cap space this summer. Even if they signed George, they could still have roughly $16.8 million in remaining cap space as well as the $8.0 million room mid-level exception to round out their roster.

Beyond that, they'd be limited to handing out minimum contracts to external free agents, just like the Suns this past offseason. Team president Daryl Morey doesn't seem all that concerned by that, though.

"In those situations, I like having the challenge," Morey told reporters at his season-ending press conference. "To me, finding the guys that are overlooked [for lesser deals]. The Kelly Oubres of the world. Getting a Kyle Lowry. Getting players like that. I like that challenge. I think that's something that the front office is very good at.

"So I think, yeah, compared to—basically you're like, 'Have less good players, but more role players.' I think, generally, the history of the NBA would favor—even with the new CBA—get studs who then you can put the work and the onus on the front office to find the players that fit around it."

So... Are Big Threes Going Extinct?

The Lakers and Sixers are well aware of those risks, but both appear poised to pursue a third star this offseason anyway. That might become a dividing line in the NBA: Teams that believe they can build a Big Three via trades and free agency versus those that prefer two stars and more well-rounded depth.

There will be exceptions to that divide. The Oklahoma City Thunder already have three rising stars in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, and they have enough future draft capital to keep replenishing their supporting cast. The Boston Celtics have their top seven players all under contract through at least next year, so they can stave off any major changes until then.

Contract size is also a consideration here. Jalen Brunson, who is a virtual lock for his first All-NBA nod this season, is set to earn roughly $25.0 million next season. That's $18 million less than Young and nearly half of the $49.4 million max starting salary that Paul George and James Harden can receive this offseason in free agency.

It would be feasible under the new CBA to build around three stars on contracts like Brunson's. It will be far more difficult to do so than before with three stars on max or near-max contracts. The trade and free-agency restrictions will make those teams perilously top-heavy, and they'll have a much slimmer margin for error with their draft picks and free-agent signings (solely on minimum contracts).

Teams with Big Threes and solid supporting casts may still have the leg up over those without both. But it may become far more difficult to assemble and sustain both under the new CBA.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM.