BS Meter on Mets' Pete Alonso Contract Offer, Zach Eflin Trade and Latest MLB Rumors

It's not quite #hotstoveSZN, but as Memorial Day nears, so too do MLB trade rumors.

No one is here to question the legitimacy of any of the journalism done by those who first reported each of these rumors. There are plenty of times where a team is interested in a given player, and just because they don't ultimately acquire said player doesn't change that fact. The goal here is to try to take credible rumors and see how likely they are to actually come to fruition.

With all that acknowledged, here is the latest BS Meter—low, medium or high—on recent MLB rumors.

The rumor: According to USA Today's Bob Nightengale, "Atlanta is keeping a close eye on Tampa Bay Rays veteran starter Zach Eflin if they decide they need another starter at the trade deadline."

BS Meter: Low

Spencer Strider is out for the season, Chris Sale and Max Fried have had their fair share of injuries historically and Reynaldo López hasn't pitched more than 66 innings in a season since 2019.

For the Braves, the question appears to be whether adding one pitcher before the trade deadline will be enough, or if president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos needs to add multiple arms.

Given that Strider is done for the year and both Sale and Fried are left-handed, adding a righty like Eflin would make sense. He's also only in the second season of a three-year, $40 million deal, so he wouldn't just be a rental.

With Strider coming back from an internal brace procedure and Fried set to become a free agent after the season, having Eflin under contract for 2025 would make him an even more attractive trade candidate.

One caveat is that like Sale and Fried, Eflin hasn't been an ironman in his career. The 31 starts he made a year ago for the Tampa Bay Rays marked just the second time he's logged more than 24 starts in a single season. The Rays also placed Eflin on the 15-day injured list Monday with lower back inflammation, so his health history certainly will be something for the Braves to consider.

But if the Rays are out of things, a healthy Eflin would be one of the most intriguing pitchers available on the market. Atlanta would be a particularly interesting destination given that he spent parts of seven years with the division-rival Philadelphia Phillies, and the two teams could very well meet in the postseason for the third year in a row.

The rumor: Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic hears that while the A's haven't hung up on teams that have called with interest in closer Mason Miller, Oakland is "asking for a ton in return" and "no team has come close" to appeasing its price to this point.

BS Meter: Moderate

Everything Rosenthal wrote this month regarding Miller checks out. But it might be a mistake to think things couldn't change as trade season really heats up.

As much as the A's need building blocks for their franchise, the earliest they'll be ready to move into a stadium in Las Vegas is in 2028. Will Miller—who is averaging 101 mph on his fastball this season—still be anchoring their bullpen by then? Both the structure of the human body and owner John Fisher's allergy to spending money suggest the answer is no.

If that's the case, then there's certainly an argument to be made that the best move for the long-term success of the A's would be to trade Miller for a haul now. Given that he's been the best reliever in baseball this season and can't become a free agent until after the 2029 season, there will probably be teams willing to offer top-tier prospects for him this summer, even with the injury risk.

The A's would be shamed, and rightfully so, if Miller was a shortstop or even a starting pitcher. But having a closer is an unnecessary luxury for a bad team. While Miller is healthy, Oakland should flip him for a package of players who will be ready for the team's arrival in Las Vegas, assuming that actually happens.

The rumor: Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Mets offered Pete Alonso a seven-year, $158 million deal last June. Additionally, the Chicago Cubs were among the teams the Mets talked with about the slugging first basemen last summer when a new contract wasn't reached.

BS Meter: Low

That Alonso—during his third season with 40-plus home runs—rejected that offer last summer isn't at all surprising. And the portion involving interest from the Cubs has been reported by a variety of outlets over the last year.

As far as Alonso turning down long-term security, he's a Scott Boras client. Boras clients almost always test the open market, which new president of baseball operations David Stearns acknowledged during spring training.

"Look, when you have a really talented player, who's really good, who's entering his final year of club control, who happens to be represented by Scott Boras, these things generally end up into free agency and we understand that," Stearns said. "This is an organization that's dealt with that before with really good players and has ended up in a perfectly fine spot."

Alonso might ultimately be hard-pressed to get more than seven years on the open market, but if he had accepted the extension, the first of those seven years would have been 2024.

Instead, he's making $20.5 million in his final arbitration year. And on the open market, he'll be able to aim higher than the $22.6 average annual value he would have received if he had taken the extension offer.

What will be interesting to see here is whether the Mets seriously consider trading Alonso this summer knowing that he's going to decline a qualifying offer and test free agency in the offseason. New York is a few games under .500, but in a top-heavy NL, they probably won't be altogether out of the wild-card race.

The rumor: Executives around the league, according to Nightengale, "remain convinced" that J.D. Martinez will be available on the trade market this summer.

BS Meter: Low

Duh.

Martinez is 36 years old and only signed for this season. There would probably be some backlash if the Mets were nominally still in the wild-card race and traded Alonso, especially considering they still seem as well-equipped as anyone to sign him in the offseason.

Martinez was already on the injured list once this season and always felt like a temporary Met, so keeping Alonso and trading Martinez would be a way to keep the focus in Queens on the future without altogether waving the white flag on 2024.

For what it's worth, the six-time All-Star is still hitting over .300, so even though he's pretty much exclusively a DH at this point and would be just a rental, there will certainly be interest in Martinez this summer.

The rumor: An AL executive opined to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com that the Houston Astros could trade Alex Bregman this summer and then try to re-sign him in the winter.

BS Meter: High

The Astros still have a ways to go, but they've begun the process of digging themselves out of a hole, and it's early enough that they could still win in the wide-open AL West. Houston may be forced to grapple with a retool after the season, but unless the Astros are entirely out of the division race, they'll probably keep the foot on the pedal the rest of 2024.

What's also worth pointing out is that Bregman is having a disastrous contract year, with an OPS well below .700. Unless he heats up, that will limit the return Astros general manager Dana Brown could get for him. It also may make him more likely to accept the qualifying offer or a more reasonable contract than initially anticipated before the year.

Finally, the "we'll trade you to a contender now, and then try to reunite in the offseason" storyline is one of the goofiest that seems to surface at the trade deadline every year.

Sure, there are a few rare examples of that happening, including the one that the unnamed executive cited with Aroldis Chapman and the New York Yankees. But if your most recent example of something happening is eight years ago, well, that gives you an idea of how likely such a scenario actually unfolding is.

The rumor: Nightengale wrote this week that despite what's been said publicly "the cold truth is that there is absolutely zero chance Soto will sign before he's a free agent."

BS Meter: Low

Like Alonso and Bregman, Juan Soto is repped by Boras. So despite New York Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner signaling a willingness to discuss a long-term contract during the 2024 season, it would be shocking if Soto doesn't test free agency.

Sure, if the Yankees present Boras with an offer that tops the total guarantees of Shohei Ohtani's $700 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers and doesn't include any deferrals, then maybe Soto would forgo free agency.

But that's not going to happen, because it would represent the Yankees bidding against themselves. And even if it did happen, Boras might still prefer to take the offer to free agency and see if he can convince Mets owner Steve Cohen to top it.

The Yankees are still the best bet to employ Soto in 2025, and Nightengale saying "absolutely zero chance" might be exaggerating a bit. Perhaps there's a 0.0001 percent chance the Yankees lock up Soto before he reaches the open market.

The rumor: An anonymous AL executive told Feinsand that the Blue Jays have talked to teams about the possibility of trading for either Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette, but "the asks were ridiculous."

BS Meter: Low

Both Guerrero and Bichette can become free agents after the 2025 season, and if the Blue Jays don't turn their campaign around, it would behoove them to at least listen to what other teams would be willing to offer.

At the same time, moving one of their core players feels like something more likely to happen in the offseason than at all. And hearing that the asking prices for both are "ridiculous" backs that up, especially since the Jays are likely holding out hope they heat up.

But even if Toronto doesn't trade Guerrero or Bichette this summer, there are other players on the roster who general manager Ross Atkins might be more willing to move if the team is taking a step back.

Right-handed starter Kevin Gausman is in the third year of a five-year, $110 million deal, and while he has a 4.89 ERA, his 3.50 FIP suggests better results are coming. So too does the fact that he was one of the best pitchers in baseball the three previous seasons. The Blue Jays could probably net a pretty good return for the 33-year-old.

Additionally, veterans Justin Turner and Kevin Kiermaier could also help out contending teams. So one way or another, it figures to be an active summer in the 6.

The rumor: According to Nightengale, there's a belief in the scouting community that the top eight picks in the 2024 MLB draft will all be collegiate players.

BS Meter: High

Here's a bonus not related to the trade deadline, but instead the MLB draft, which will begin on July 14.

This isn't to say there isn't a perception in the sport that the top eight players could be collegiate ones, with Nightengale suggesting that Georgia outfielder Charlie Condon is likely to be the No. 1 pick.

But there is always a team or two that surprises early in the draft, whether it's because they found a player who isn't being valued as much by other clubs or they believe they can sign someone to an under-slot contract and save money for later in the draft. Maybe this is the year things will be chalk in the draft. There's always a first for everything.

What's more likely is that at least one prep player—be it shortstop Bryce Rainer, shortstop/outfielder Konnor Griffin or someone else—will crash the top eight.