3 Ways Dustin Poirier Can Upset Islam Makhachev at UFC 302

This Saturday, in the main event of UFC 302, Dustin Poirier will make what is most likely his final bid at the promotion's lightweight title. He has even gone so far as to suggest he will retire after the fight, whether he's successful or not.

Poirier has twice tried and failed to win the undisputed lightweight belt, first against Khabib Nurmagomedov in Sept. 2019, and later against Charles Oliveira in Dec. 2021. Despite having some success in both fights, he was submitted each time.

The champion in the Octagon this time around will be Islam Makhachev, a teammate and friend of Nurmagomedov, argued by some to be even better than the former champion.

The odds—and the majority of fans—are pointing to a Makhachev win this weekend, and it's easy to understand why. He is a juggernaut in the grappling department, with relentless takedowns and proven submission prowess, and he looks more dangerous on the feet every time he fights.

However, a Poirier win is not out of the question. The former interim champ is as experienced as lightweights get, with a bottomless gas tank and the ability to end fights in a blink from many positions.

Here are three ways the American can cap off his Hall of Fame-worthy career with a long-awaited title win this Saturday.

Makhachev has lost just once as a professional mixed martial artist, when he was knocked out by Adriano Martins in 2015.

Outside of that loss, the closest we've seen him come to losing was last year, when he defeated featherweight champ Alexander Volkanovski with a hotly debated unanimous decision.

Volkanovski had success against Makhachev for a number of reasons. He was able to weather the lightweight champion's offense on the feet. More notably, he was able to survive the submission attempts he encountered during the fight's many grappling exchanges. He also caught Makhachev off guard with some grappling aggression of his own.

Poirier and Volkanovski are very different fighters, but there's reason to believe Poirier could emulate the featherweight champion's strategy and outpoint Makhachev over five rounds.

He might have been knocked out by Justin Gaethje less than a year ago, but he absorbed some huge shots in his recent knockout win over Benoit Saint Denis, so it's fair to assume he can survive whatever he is not able block or dodge.

The 35-year-old is not the grappler Volkanovski is and has suffered several key submission losses, but he has also fought his way out of some bad spots on the mat, and if he's been working on his grappling, could well be able to escape the Russian's submission attacks. He's hardly a takedown artist, but he can scramble well and might also be able to surprise the champion on the mat.

If Poirier is able to do those things, and land enough of the thudding punches to the head and body he's known for, it's possible he could convince the judges he deserves the win in a long, drawn-out contest.

If nothing else, we know he's got the cardio to pull it off.

Grapplers like Islam Makhachev are greatly disadvantaged they're forced onto their back foot. It's hard to shoot for takedowns when you're plodding backward.

Unfortunately for Poirier, few people have managed to keep Makhachev moving backward for anything for than a few moments, but there is some precedent.

Volkanovski, who we mentioned above, was able to push the lightweight champ back on a number of occasions in their first fight, which not only diminished the threat of a takedown, but set up opportunities for success on the feet.

Combat sports analyst Blaine Henry noted this on X, pointing specifically to an instance where Volkanovski wobbled Makhachev with a straight left hand. He also noted that Poirier was able to stumble Max Holloway in a very similar exchange.

This strategy looks all the more promising for Poirier when you consider the fact that he is clearly a far harder puncher than Volkanovski. If he is able to touch Makhachev the way the former featherweight champ was, there's a good chance he can knock him clean out.

As we've noted, Makhachev has been knocked out before, and by a far less dangerous striker than Poirier.

Poirier has tried many times to submit his opponents with guillotine chokes but has never been successful, and he has actually put himself in some terrible positions as a result.

In fact, the manuever has been so disastrous for him in past fights that he's actually received mid-fight warnings about it from his coach, Mike Brown.

The strange thing about Poirier's love for the guillotine choke is that he has come really close to completing the submission in a few previous fights. Arguably the best example occurred in his failed title bid against Nurmagomedov. While he ultimately ended up on his back as a result, he briefly threatened Nurmagomedov with a guillotine choke in what would go down as one of the few, fleeting moments of adversity in the undefeated Russian's legendary career.

In truth, Poirier is probably better advised to forget the guillotine in his fight with Makhachev. It has never worked for him before, and given Makhachev has almost certainly prepared for the attack, it is unlikely to pay off this time. It's far more likely to put Poirier on his back underneath the champ.

However, it's still possible this will be the fight where Poirier finally succeeds on the guillotine gamble—and what a moment that would be for him. Just imagine him finally winning the undisputed belt by submitting the sport's pound-for-pound king with a choke he's been trying and failing to pull off for his entire career. It would be a win for the history books.

Of course, the guillotine isn't the only submission in Poirier's playbook. We've seen him win fights with D'arce chokes on two occasions, and he has also defeated Michael Chandler with a rear-naked choke and Max Holloway with a triangle armbar.

He might be out of his depth on the mat with Makhachev, but that doesn't mean he can't submit the champ—particularly if he's willing to take bold risks like jumping for guillotines.