Reevaluating All 30 MLB Teams Based on 2024 Preseason Projections

We all still remember Opening Day of the 2024 MLB season like it was yesterday. It was nonetheless a different time and, oh, how naive we were back then.

The first two months of the season have indeed taught us much, including how accurate and inaccurate preseason projections for 2024 look in retrospect.

The idea here is to pause to reevaluate all 30 teams by weighing what they were projected to be versus what they actually are. Since Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system is the standard in this arena, its preseason projections had the honor of going under the microscope.

If it's grades for all 30 teams you want, you can see this piece from last week. This is more about looking at surprises and disappointments and determining whether teams are Off Track, On Track or Beating Expectations.

We'll go one team at a time in alphabetical order by city.

Preseason Projection: 85-77

Actual Record: 31-35

Status: Off Track

Biggest Surprise

The National League champions have basically failed to launch at the outset of 2024, but things would be worse if they weren't getting so many unlikely contributions.

With an .877 OPS, Joc Pederson is again hitting like the All-Star he was in 2022. Jake McCarthy is also having an unexpectedly strong year, and don't overlook Justin Martinez and Ryan Thompson in the bullpen. They've allowed four earned runs in 50 total innings.

Biggest Disappointment

Arizona's starting rotation is deserving of a beleaguered sigh, as it's been beset by injuries and otherwise has the fifth-highest ERA in MLB at 4.77.

Still, that looks like nothing compared to Corbin Carroll and his .581 OPS. The reigning NL Rookie of the Year was supposed to take another step toward superstardom this year, but it's just not happening.

Preseason Projection: 100-62

Actual Record: 35-28

Status: Off Track

Biggest Surprise

Pitching always figured to be a strength for Atlanta, but it's doubtful anyone anticipated it being this much of a strength in the wake of Spencer Strider's season-ending injury.

Atlanta hurlers are third in the NL with a 3.68 ERA and fifth in all of MLB in strikeout percentage. It helps to have a healthy Max Fried, but even more to have gambled and won big on Chris Sale and Reynaldo López.

Biggest Disappointment

Well, it simply has to be how much has gone wrong, right?

Both Strider's elbow injury and Ronald Acuña Jr.'s torn ACL were crushing blows, and then there's how weirdly ineffective Atlanta's offense has been. It was a historic unit in 2023. In 2024, it's been pretty much average.

Preseason Projection: 87-75

Actual Record: 43-22

Status: Beating Expectations

Biggest Surprise

The Orioles have been the best offensive team of the season so far, leading MLB in scoring and home runs. But given how loaded their lineup was coming into the proceedings, is that really much of a surprise?

More surprising is how much their bullpen hasn't missed Félix Bautista amid his recovery from Tommy John surgery. It hasn't been flawless, but its ERA has actually dropped from 2023 to 2024.

Biggest Disappointment

Not a whole lot has gone wrong for the Orioles in 2024, save for the uncomfortable experience that was Jackson Holliday's debut.

Yes, he's still MLB's No. 1 prospect. And yes, he still has a bright future ahead of him. But if there's ever been a case of a young hitter getting a reality check, it was him going 2-for-35 with 18 strikeouts in the 10 games he played with the big club in April.

Preseason Projection: 80-82

Actual Record: 33-33

Status: On Track

Biggest Surprise

So, let's get this straight. The Red Sox traded Chris Sale and lost Lucas Giolito to elbow surgery, yet they're arguably the biggest pitching success story of 2024?

That's what it says in my notes and, sure enough, it's backed up by a 3.40 ERA and the biggest wOBA drop of any staff from last season. It goes to show that sometimes a new strategy is just as good (or better) than new personnel.

Biggest Disappointment

A steady flow of injuries has forced manager Alex Cora into a bind where he's constantly trying to scrape together functional lineups, but that's more bad luck than anything.

More frustrating is how leaky the Red Sox still are on defense. Not every metric rates them poorly, but they lead MLB with 48 errors and are again in the red for Outs Above Average.

Preseason Projection: 80-82

Actual Record: 32-34

Status: On Track

Biggest Surprise

Shōta Imanaga was supposed to be good, but what he's actually been is sensational. The lefty has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 11 of 12 starts in the process of racking up a 1.96 ERA.

But let's not lose sight of his surprise co-ace, Javier Assad. He also has 11 starts with two or fewer earned runs allowed, in part thanks to a strikeout rate increase relative to 2023.

Biggest Disappointment

The bullpen has been a more than occasional headache for the Cubs, but anyone might have expected that coming into the year. It needs help, full stop.

A more unforeseen frustration concerns the offense, which is collectively batting just .229 and scoring a modest 4.3 runs per game. All the pieces are there, but more is needed from Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ and Christopher Morel.

Preseason Projection: 66-96

Actual Record: 17-50

Status: Off Track

Biggest Surprise

One supposes it's not all bad on the South Side.

Paul DeJong has only played in 61 games, but he needs only two more homers to match his total for 112 games in 2023. And Garrett Crochet's move from the bullpen to the rotation has been a success, as he has a 3.33 and leads the American League with 103 strikeouts.

Biggest Disappointment

Geez, does "everything" cut it as an acceptable answer here?

In all seriousness, one especially feels for Michael Soroka. The erstwhile Atlanta ace had a fair shot at a fresh start this year, but he has a 6.35 ERA and only lasted in the rotation until the middle of May.

Preseason Projection: 78-84

Actual Record: 32-34

Status: On Track

Biggest Surprise

After a season lost to injuries in 2023, it's nice to see former top prospect Nick Lodolo settling into such a nice groove in 2024. He has a 2.92 ERA in nine starts.

Then again, he's just one piece of a unit of 26-and-under starters with the most fWAR in MLB. Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott are also in that group and likewise doing just fine with ERAs in the 3.00s.

Biggest Disappointment

He's been better lately, but it's still shocking to see Alexis Díaz with a 5.55 ERA after he was such a force in saving 37 games last season.

Still, the crosshairs here should really be on an offense that's been volatile all year. The 96 stolen bases are nice and the 4.4 runs per game isn't terrible, but the same can't be said of the NL-low .227 average.

Preseason Projection: 83-79

Actual Record: 42-22

Status: Beating Expectations

Biggest Surprise

The Guardians were one of the more inept offensive teams of 2023, hitting an MLB-low 124 home runs and ranking fourth from the bottom of MLB in runs per game.

Well, now they're third from the top with an average of 5.1 runs in 2024. Nobody can say they saw that coming, especially knowing there isn't even one new offseason addition in Cleveland's go-to starting nine.

Biggest Disappointment

It's a good thing the Guardians bullpen boasts an MLB-low 2.35 ERA, because their rotation sure isn't picking up much slack on the mound.

Cleveland starters may have a non-terrible 4.21 ERA, but they're 30th in MLB in fWAR nonetheless. Shane Bieber needing Tommy John surgery is no help in this regard, but what's really hurt is regression on the parts of Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen.

Preseason Projection: 58-104

Actual Record: 23-43

Status: On Track

Biggest Surprise

It's not often you can look and see not one, but two Rockies starters with ERAs in the 3.00s. As such, you have to hand it to Cal Quantrill and Austin Gomber.

It probably won't last, given that the two hurlers are in the 15th and 17th percentile for strikeout rate, respectively. But in the meantime, the Rockies will take what they can get for as long as they can get it.

Biggest Disappointment

The simple fact that the Rockies were projected to lose 104 games and are actually on track to do so is bad enough.

And then there's Kris Bryant's seven-year, $182 million deal continuing to look like a sunk cost. Now in Year 3 as a Rockie, all he has to show for his tenure is 146 games, a .715 OPS and 17 home runs.

Preseason Projection: 75-87

Actual Record: 32-33

Status: Beating Expectations

Biggest Surprise

Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson becoming a dynamic duo in Detroit's rotation isn't the biggest shocker after what the two of them did in 2023. But Jack Flaherty reemerging as a viable top-of-the-rotation type? That feels akin to a miracle.

It's not just that he has his ERA down to 3.22 from 4.99 last year. It's also that he's the single biggest strikeout rate gainer of 2024. Job well done, Tigers.

Biggest Disappointment

If you go off runs scored, the Tigers have gone from a bad offensive team in 2023 to a slightly less bad offensive team in 2024.

It's a ruse, though. Their batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage are all down this year, so you have to wonder how long even these relatively "good" times will last.

Preseason Projection: 95-67

Actual Record: 30-37

Status: Off Track

Biggest Surprise

Kyle Tucker was frankly underrated in 2021, 2022 and 2023, so it's been fun to see him take a step toward actual superstardom in hitting 19 home runs before he went on the IL with a shin contusion.

But here's a better one for you: Ronel Blanco is the Astros' best pitcher. Nobody expected this, but there he is with a 2.78 ERA and a no-hitter in his pocket.

Biggest Disappointment

Houston's pitching always looked like a potential weak spot, but the degree to which it's been a weakness this year is almost painful.

The 4.21 ERA is not great, but worse is how many injuries there have been. It'll especially hurt to be without Cristian Javier and José Urquidy for the rest of the year, both of whom have gone under the knife for Tommy John surgery.

Preseason Projection: 70-92

Actual Record: 39-28

Status: Beating Expectations

Biggest Surprise

On one hand, Royals pitchers have gone from a 5.17 ERA in 2023 to a 3.68 ERA this year. On the other, their hitters have gone from 4.2 to 4.9 runs per game.

Let's just say both feats are equally impressive, but it's worth calling special attention to starters Seth Lugo and Brady Singer. Both have ERAs in the 2.00s, with Singer notably having cut his ERA exactly in half from 5.52 last year to 2.76 this year.

Biggest Disappointment

There's not much to find fault with in the present, but it's alarming how many weak spots there are in the Kansas City starting nine.

To wit, they're getting sub-.700 OPSes from five different positions. This hasn't cost them yet, but the threat that it will is very much there.

Preseason Projection: 75-87

Actual Record: 25-40

Status: Off Track

Biggest Surprise

At least according to rWAR, Tyler Anderson is the second-most valuable pitcher in all of MLB after only Tarik Skubal.

Yet even as nice as that is, how about the job Kevin Pillar is doing filling in for Mike Trout? The Angels picked him right after the White Sox DFA'd him, and all he's done in 25 games is post a 1.089 OPS with six long balls.

Biggest Disappointment

The Angels were never going to be good in 2024, but at least they had Trout's resurgence going for them in the early weeks of the season. He co-led the majors with 10 homers on April 29.

But then he had knee surgery, thus continuing a run of injury-marred seasons that stretches all the way back to 2017. Maybe "disappointment" isn't the right word, but it definitely sucks.

Preseason Projection: 101-61

Actual Record: 41-26

Status: On Track

Biggest Surprise

That Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto have been a dominant starting duo should surprise nobody, but the Dodgers wouldn't have a 3.30 ERA if not for other, less-heralded contributors.

Gavin Stone is casually sitting there with a sub-3.00 ERA through 12 starts, and even James Paxton had a 2.84 ERA as recently as May 17. This is godsend stuff for a pitching staff that's been hit hard by injuries.

Biggest Disappointment

The Dodgers' starting lineup always figured to be top-heavy in 2024, but this is ridiculous.

Anchored by Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and the resurgent Teoscar Hernández, the 1-5 spots in the order have produced an .890 OPS. That's solid. But the bottom four? Less so, as they have just a .610 OPS between them.

Preseason Projection: 80-82

Actual Record: 22-43

Status: Off Track

Biggest Surprise

He's on the IL now with a strained index finger, but Ryan Weathers is nonetheless to be credited for providing the Marlins with a bit of sunshine every fifth day.

The lefty has had only one truly bad start all year, altogether making 13 starts and putting up a 3.55 ERA. He's really figured out the sweeper, using it to hold hitters to a .119 average.

Biggest Disappointment

The Marlins' projected record always felt like a reach, and they were only ever going to live up to it if their pitching was up to carrying the team even sans Sandy Alcantara.

Injuries have done enough to put the kibosh on that, but it's also not helping that Jesús Luzardo, Braxton Garrett and Trevor Rogers all have ERAs in the 5.00s.

Preseason Projection: 79-83

Actual Record: 39-27

Status: Beating Expectations

Biggest Surprise

What the Guardians are to the American League, the Brewers are to the National League.

It helps to have new guys such as Rhys Hoskins and Joey Ortiz, yet the Brewers have nonetheless been much better offensively than anyone could have anticipated. They're riding big years from those two plus William Contreras and Christian Yelich to 4.9 runs per game.

Biggest Disappointment

On the other side of the ball, it's fair to worry about how much longer the bullpen will be able to keep picking up slack for Milwaukee's starting rotation.

Brewers starters rank dead-last in MLB in innings, with a 4.12 ERA that's firmly in the middle of the road. DL Hall, Jakob Junis and Joe Ross can't return from injuries fast enough.

Preseason Projection: 88-74

Actual Record: 35-31

Status: On Track

Biggest Surprise

In this Twins lineup are recognizable stars such as Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler and (when healthy) the ascendant Royce Lewis, yet their best hitter is...Ryan Jeffers?

Maybe it shouldn't be counted as a surprise after he posted an .858 OPS in 2023, but one still wonders where the Twins would be without his .826 OPS and 12 homers. Indeed, it's no wonder they're 10-12 since he went into something of a funk back on May 15.

Biggest Disappointment

Though Buxton's name still carries some weight, his hitting has been on the light side as he's batted only .223 with three homers.

Yet a bigger issue concerns just how much the Twins are missing Sonny Gray in their rotation. No thanks to turns for the worse on the parts of Pablo López and Bailey Ober, its ERA is up to 4.58 from 3.82 in 2023.

Preseason Projection: 83-79

Actual Record: 28-36

Status: Off Track

Biggest Surprise

Luis Severino looked pretty much cooked as a viable major league starter in 2023. To make 19 appearances and put up a 6.65 ERA is what they call "suboptimal."

Well, now he has a 3.25 ERA in 12 starts for the Mets. All he needed, apparently, was a sinker to throw hitters off the scent of his four-seamer. It's nowhere near as hittable in 2024 as it was in 2023.

Biggest Disappointment

We can sit here and gripe about offensive stragglers like Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil, but there's no ignoring the drag that is Edwin Díaz's return.

His comeback from last year's knee injury was supposed to be a bright spot. Instead, we're talking about a guy with a 5.40 ERA who was demoted as the team's closer even before he went on the IL with a shoulder impingement.

Preseason Projection: 94-68

Actual Record: 47-21

Status: Beating Expectations

Biggest Surprise

If you're saying you called it that the Yankees would have an MLB-best 2.91 ERA with Gerrit Cole still out on June 10, well, I reserve the right to call you a liar.

Nobody expected this, much less that it would be guys like Luis Gil and (pre-injury, anyway) Clarke Schmidt driving the bus. And it all puts Cole in a position to elevate this pitching staff, not merely rescue it.

Biggest Disappointment

Juan Soto and Aaron Judge haven't needed much help in carrying the Yankees offense, but it's still not ideal how little it's gotten from the left side of the infield.

That's home to Anthony Rizzo, who has a .623 OPS, and Gleyber Torres, whose OPS is .638. The Yankees ought to be wondering if they should upgrade over one or both.

Preseason Projection: 65-97

Actual Record: 26-42

Status: Off Track

Biggest Surprise

The A's have a low-key powerful offense, producing 77 home runs to barely edge the Philadelphia Phillies for the No. 5 spot in MLB.

Yet it's the bullpen that's not merely surprisingly good, but it's actually fun. Its 3.44 ERA is in the top 10 of MLB, and who knew Mason Miller would be the league's most dominant hurler on a pitch-to-pitch basis?

Biggest Disappointment

It's hard to be disappointed in a team that set a subterranean bar in losing 112 games in 2023, but it's still a bummer that Oakland's warm start has long since faded.

A 20-4 win over Miami back on May 4 moved the A's record to an even 17-17. They've since lost 25 out of 34 to land with a thud back in the AL West cellar.

Preseason Projection: 84-78

Actual Record: 45-20

Status: Beating Expectations

Biggest Surprise

The two main right-handers in the Phillies rotation are doing just fine, thank you. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola have put up a combined 2.51 ERA over 26 total starts.

Yet the two lefties in the rotation have been even better. They would be Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez, who've combined for 25 outings and a 2.22 ERA. You know, in case anyone was wondering how the whole rotation's ERA is 2.65.

Biggest Disappointment

The Phillies lead the National League in scoring at 5.1 runs per game anyway, but their outfielders haven't been much help at the plate.

They have only a .655 OPS as a unit, though Nick Castellanos would love to have an OPS that high. It was only on March 30 and 31 that his OPS has been over that mark in 2024.

Preseason Projection: 73-89

Actual Record: 31-34

Status: Beating Expectations

Biggest Surprise

Paul Skenes has been nothing short of sensational since he made his debut on May 11, a little less than a year after the Pirates drafted him No. 1 overall. Yet he's probably not going to be their best rookie pitcher of 2024.

Jared Jones has a leg up in that race, having made 13 starts to the tune of a 3.27 ERA. And by one metric, at least, he has the best stuff of any qualified starter.

Biggest Disappointment

It's not any one hitter's fault that the Pirates have struggled offensively, but one can't help but want more from Oneil Cruz.

It's an exciting event whenever he hits the ball, but he's done little of that as he's whiffed in 33.2 percent of his plate appearances. He also has just a .738 OPS, adding to why his seven-homer outburst in the spring feels like ancient history.

Preseason Projection: 79-83

Actual Record: 35-35

Status: Beating Expectations

Biggest Surprise

It was a shocker when the Padres, who weren't hurting for infielders, were the ones to pull of a trade for Luis Arraez in May. And it's paid off, as he's hit .350 in 33 games.

An even bigger surprise, though, is how Jake Cronenworth has done as much as anyone to carry San Diego's offense. His OPS is up 105 points from 2023, and he's already matched his home run total from last season.

Biggest Disappointment

The Padres may yet be the starting pitching powerhouse many saw them as coming into 2024, but it hasn't happened yet.

Dylan Cease and Michael King have been more good than great, while Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove are both on the IL. With a 5.66 ERA through 10 starts, the latter had been having a rough one even before he finally had to give his elbow a break.

Preseason Projection: 81-81

Actual Record: 33-34

Status: On Track

Biggest Surprise

At the time, the Giants making a $44 million bet on Jordan Hicks as a starter seemed too cute by half. Heck, it was a borderline galaxy-brain idea.

Well, it turns out he's pretty good at the whole starting thing. With a 2.82 ERA through 13 starts, he's indeed a big reason why San Francisco's rotation has survived disappointment elsewhere.

Biggest Disappointment

That means you, Blake Snell, though it's not all your fault. It's your agent's for misinterpreting the free-agent market so badly that you missed out on spring training.

Hence the reigning Cy Young Award winner's 9.51 ERA, which is to say nothing of separate IL stints with an adductor strain and a groin strain.

Preseason Projection: 85-77

Actual Record: 38-30

Status: Beating Expectations

Biggest Surprise

Pitching always figured to carry the Mariners this year, and that is indeed what's happening. The 3.56 ERA is quite nice, as is the league-best 3.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

But did anyone have Bryan Woo as Seattle's best on the mound? Probably not, but he's sure looked the part in posting a 1.07 ERA in six starts since he came off the IL on May 10. And his next walk will be his first since May 15.

Biggest Disappointment

Only four teams have scored less frequently than the Mariners, but it's hard not to look at Julio Rodríguez and feel especially let down by him.

He's come alive with a .333 average since May 25, but he still only has a .669 OPS next to an AL-high 81 strikeouts. The Mariners need more from him, and then even more on top of that.

Preseason Projection: 85-77

Actual Record: 31-33

Status: Off Track

Biggest Surprise

The best player on an infield that also features Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado is a 22-year-old shortstop who had 37 games to his name before 2024.

Masyn Winn has done a bit of everything to deserve such attention, but what he's mainly done is hit and gobble up batted balls. He has a sturdy .306 average and is tied for fourth among all shortstops in Defensive Runs Saved.

Biggest Disappointment

The Cardinals' preseason projection was a touch on the bullish side, and it was never going to come true if Goldschmidt and Arenado struggled like they did in 2023.

But that's what's happening, alright. Both have shown occasional signs of breaking out, but neither has yet to get all the way off the schneid. Their combined OPS is just .668.

Preseason Projection: 86-76

Actual Record: 31-35

Status: Off Track

Biggest Surprise

Honestly, it's a surprise the Rays have hung in there as well as they have. They've been outscored by 65 runs, so their record should probably be more like 26-40.

You have to hand it to them for not losing the close ones, which is something they didn't do even amid last year's 99-win romp. Whereas they were 22-25 in one-run games then, now they're 12-4.

Biggest Disappointment

Among other things, the Rays just don't have the same power that they had in 2023. They've gone from ranking sixth in MLB in home runs to dead-last with just 50.

Brandon Lowe especially seems finished as an impact slugger. The 31 homers he's hit over the last three seasons are eight fewer than he hit in 2021 alone.

Preseason Projection: 86-76

Actual Record: 31-34

Status: Off Track

Biggest Surprise

Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom may have five Cy Young Awards between them, but they have yet to make even one start for the Rangers this year.

It's therefore commendable that the Texas rotation has done as well as it has without them, posting a 3.46 ERA to tie for sixth in MLB. Jon Gray, who's fresh off the IL in his own right, has led the charge with a 2.28 ERA in 10 starts.

Biggest Disappointment

After co-leading the AL in home runs during the 2023 regular season and then pounding out 30 more in the playoffs, the Rangers offense has been a little less overwhelming in 2024.

They're actually below the league average with 66 long balls, and likewise with a .691 OPS. Rather than any one guy's fault, it feels more like a collective hangover.

Preseason Win Projection: 88-74

Actual Record: 32-34

Status: Off Track

Biggest Surprise

With Bo Bichette, George Springer, Justin Turner and Kevin Kiermaier all struggling, you'd think disaster would have befallen Toronto's offense.

This hasn't quite been the case, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s recent surge isn't the only reason for it. The Blue Jays are also getting good work from Davis Schneider, as well as unexpectedly strong results from Daulton Varsho, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Danny Jansen.

Biggest Disappointment

Pitching and defense were meant to carry the Blue Jays this season, yet neither has really lived up to the hype.

The bullpen has been a notably potent sore spot by way of a 4.83 ERA, and now Jordan Romano is out of the picture with elbow inflammation. Until he returns, volatility figures to remain the name of the game.

Preseason Projection: 58-104

Actual Record: 30-35

Status: Beating Expectations

Biggest Surprise

It's notable how many guys are turning their careers around while wearing a Nationals uniform this year. Not just lineup mainstays such as Nick Senzel and Jesse Winker, but also relievers like Derek Law and Dylan Floro.

Even more notable, however, is that the Nats are 11-10 within the NL East and that they've beaten up the most on Atlanta. The two sides have played eight games and Washington has taken six of them.

Biggest Disappointment

So, how many more chances is Joey Gallo going to get?

After a dismal year-and-a-half with the Yankees and Dodgers in 2021 and 2022, he didn't do much with the chance the Twins gave him in 2023. And so it goes now with the Nationals, for whom he's hitting .161 with five homers in 45 games.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.