NBA Finals 2024: Hot Takes and Top Storylines Mavericks vs. Celtics Game 5

Zach Buckley@@ZachBuckleyNBAX.com LogoFeatured Columnist IVJune 17, 2024

NBA Finals 2024: Hot Takes and Top Storylines Mavericks vs. Celtics Game 5

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    DALLAS, TX - JUNE 14: Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks celebrates during the game against the Boston Celtics during Game 4 of the 2024 NBA Finals on June 14, 2024 at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2024 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)
    Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images

    The objectives for the two combatants in Monday night's Game 5 of the 2024 NBA Finals are simple.

    For the Boston Celtics, a win would mean securing a record-setting 18th league championship for the franchise. For the Dallas Mavericks, they are in survival mode, but following their runaway win in Game 4 with another triumph tonight could put all of the pressure on the Celtics to avoid the ignominy of becoming the Association's first team to ever cough up a 3-0 series lead.

    This should be a can't-miss collision, so let's dive right into the action by rounding up the game's biggest storylines before closing with a hot-take prediction.

Any Hope That Kristaps Porziņģis Can Play?

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    DALLAS, TEXAS - JUNE 14: Kristaps Porzingis #8 of the Boston Celtics warms up prior to Game Four of the 2024 NBA Finals against the Dallas Mavericks at American Airlines Center on June 14, 2024 in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
    Stacy Revere/Getty Images

    Kristaps Porziņģis missed Games 3 and 4 with a torn medial retinaculum allowing dislocation of the posterior tibialis tendon in his left leg. Whether he makes it back for any kind of action in Game 5 is very much up in the air. He is officially listed as questionable, and it sounds as if that label is 100 percent accurate.

    "I'm not sure kind of where he's at," Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla told reporters Sunday. "But he's trying and doing everything he can to try to put himself in position to be out there. I know that for sure."

    While Boston boasts a fully loaded roster even without the big fella, Porziņģis has performed like a difference-maker in this series. Between Games 1 and 2, which came after a five week-plus absence due to a calf strain, the Celtics won his 44 minutes by 25 points. Overall, they are a minus-6 in this series' 192 minutes. For the non-math majors out there, that means they've lost 148 minutes he hasn't played by 31 points.

    The Celtics can, of course, win without him. They proved as much in Game 3, plus the Eastern Conference semifinals and finals, both of which he missed entirely. Still, his presence is notable. He is their top paint protector, an excellent floor spacer and a capable tertiary scorer. They are much better with him than without, so they have to be hoping he's not only capable of playing, but actually has a chance to look somewhat like his normal self.

Dallas' Defensive Adjustment

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    DALLAS, TX - JUNE 14: Dereck Lively II #2 of the Dallas Mavericks rebounds the ball during the game against the Boston Celtics during Game 4 of the 2024 NBA Finals on June 14, 2024 at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2024 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)
    Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images

    The Celtics have the league's best three-point attack, and the Mavericks did everything they could to take that away early in the series. They brought their bigs up in coverage and tried hounding Boston's shooters, only to wind up exposed against dribble penetrations and drive-and-kicks.

    Since the second half of Game 3, though, the Mavericks kept their centers closer to the paint to take away those point-blank chances and relied on their perimeter defenders to switch onto shooters. The Celtics' offense effectively malfunctioned in Game 4, as they scored a season-low 84 points (their first sub-90-point effort of the campaign) while shooting 14-of-41 from distance and 15-of-39 inside the arch.

    "I wouldn't say we solved the puzzle," Mavericks rookie center Dereck Lively II said. "I feel like we definitely got a couple pieces, but we don't have the whole set."

    Dallas isn't built to overwhelm Boston with a barrage of buckets, so it will need to grind out more wins on the defensive end. Game 5 could reveal whether the Celtics just had an off-night in Game 4, or if the Mavericks found the adjustment that gets them back in this series.

Hot Take: With or Without Porziņģis, the Celtics Win Comfortably

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    DALLAS, TX - JUNE 12: Jaylen Brown #7 and Jayson Tatum #0 of the Boston Celtics embrace after the game against the Dallas Mavericks during Game 3 of the 2024 NBA Finals on June 12, 2024 at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2024 NBAE (Photo by Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images)
    Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images

    All things considered, the Celtics would clearly take a healthy Porziņģis for this contest if possible. Still, they don't need him to close out this series.

    Even without the 7'3" big man, Boston's roster looks far superior on paper. Luka Dončić might be the best player in this series, but the Celtics arguably have five of the next six (or six of the next seven with Porziņģis). They can match the Mavericks star-for-star with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown going against Dončić and Kyrie Irving, but Dallas can't do the same when it comes to players like Derrick White, Jrue Holiday and Al Horford. (Horford could be debatable here, though it depends on how effective Lively and Daniel Gafford are.)

    If the Mavericks continue focusing on interior defense, that could be the opening the Celtics' shooters need to get back on track. And when the three-balls are flying from Boston, Dallas can have trouble keeping up. Even after the shoddy showing in Game 4, the Celtics are plus-20 in three-pointers made or plus-60 in points from the perimeter. It's hard to make the math work with that kind of disadvantage.

    With Boston back at home and surely disinterested in heading back to the Lone Star State, look for the Celtics to come out focused and energized. Tack on their talent advantage, and this is a game Boston should win relatively comfortably.

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