2024 Paris Olympics: Player Predictions for Team USA and Quarterfinals NBA Stars

The quarterfinals of the 2024 Olympic men's basketball tournament are upon us.

While the oddsmakers and Team USA's performance through group play both suggest the Americans may waltz to the gold medal, the rosters of the seven other teams still standing have plenty of star power.

Regardless of how long each team's run lasts from here, the big names left in this tournament will leave their marks.

How exactly that'll happen can be found below.

Back during USA's training camp in Las Vegas, Anthony Edwards made some waves when discussing his role on the team with the media.

Given the presence of LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry on the roster, it was easy to scoff at that comment. Plenty did.

Edwards led Team USA in scoring at last year's World Cup and is the unquestioned No. 1 option for the Minnesota Timberwolves, but this American squad is different.

Edwards, on the other hand, isn't.

He emerged from group play averaging a team-high 16.7 points. He took more shots than any other American. And his combination of confidence and aggression didn't throw off the chemistry of the team. Over the course of three games, Edwards was plus-46 in 50 minutes.

At this point, it's hard to imagine Edwards suddenly loosening grip on this role he's seized. Yes, the pressure is about to ratchet up. And players like KD, LeBron and Curry have a lot more experience in the game's highest-leverage moments.

But Edwards, perhaps more than anyone else in the NBA right now, seems impervious to pressure. He'll bring the same attitude to these games that he does every other one and remain Team USA's leading scorer.

Anthony Davis probably isn't a better individual player than Joel Embiid. The latter won the 2022-23 MVP. He had more points than minutes played last season. He's one of the most prolific free-throw shooters in NBA history (only Wilt Chamberlain and Bob Pettit averaged more attempts per game).

But there's a reason Embiid is one of just two American players who had a negative plus-minus in group play. He's just not a great fit alongside some of the other ball-dominant scorers who start for this team.

Coach Steve Kerr is big on constant ball and player movement. Embiid is a more traditional big man who likes to get the ball in the post, take his time in isolation and either score or draw a foul.

The FIBA game favors Kerr's style, in part because of how much more physical the officials allow it to be.

AD, on the other hand, is plus-39 in 53 minutes. He's been more content to get his scoring opportunities from rim runs and offensive rebounds. He's a bit more mobile on defense. And he gets up and down the floor quicker in transition.

Given the way the tournament has gone so far, Team USA getting through the medal round without real challenges wouldn't be all that surprising. But if those come, don't be surprised if AD is the center Kerr relies on to get out of them.

The KD half of this take isn't particularly spicy. Coming into this tournament, he'd hit 50.0 percent of his career Olympic three-point attempts. In 2024 group play, he went 10-of-14 from deep.

If anything, as it applies to Durant, this prediction is simply suggesting he'll keep it up.

Curry, on the other hand, is 5-of-19 from deep in his first Olympic run. The FIBA three-point line being more like an NBA long two hasn't treated him as well as it has Durant.

But we're talking about the greatest outside shooter in basketball history here. And the ultra-talented roster surrounding him is generating plenty of open looks.

With his starting to fall and KD's continuing to do the same, the former Golden State Warriors duo is going to hit at least half its three-point attempts in the knockout round.

For reasons similar to those laid out for Embiid, Jayson Tatum hasn't been a great fit alongside Team USA's top scoring options.

It's not that his play is necessarily right or wrong, but Tatum just sort of processes the game at a different rate than most of the rest of the rotation. When he catches the ball, he often starts jab-stepping, pump-faking or surveying the floor. He seems to enjoy time in the triple-threat position a bit more than others.

His Boston Celtics teammates, Derrick White and Jrue Holiday, aren't that way. Of course, they also aren't as good on an individual level as Tatum, but their defensive versatility and quick decisions make them better fits in most Team USA lineups.

If and when games tighten up in the medal round, you can expect a little more reliance on White and Holiday than on Tatum.

Prior to this year's tournament, there'd only been three triple-doubles in Olympic history.

One of them belongs to LeBron James, who had 11 points, 14 rebounds and 12 assists in 2012. And Nikola Jokić nearly joined the club against Puerto Rico in this year's group phase, when he had 14 points, 15 rebounds and nine assists in just 23 minutes.

With the stakes raising in the medal round, both will get a bit more time and responsibility, and they'll up that count for total triple-doubles from three to five.

Giannis Antetokounmpo's Greek squad doesn't have a single NBA player beyond him. It's a pretty big underdog against Germany in the quarterfinals. Giannis is good enough to carry his team to an upset, but it's not the likeliest outcome.

Either way, he'll leave his mark on the knockout round with a big scoring performance.

In group play, Giannis averaged 27.0 points, 7.7 rebounds and 3.7 assists. He made 73.2 percent of his two-point attempts.

And while Germany has some lengthy defenders to throw in front of him, like Franz Wagner and Isaac Bonga, the Greek big man is still going to have a massive individual line, starting with his points.

His high in the group phase was 34, and he's going to top that against Germany.

Much was made of Wagner's struggles from deep in his third NBA campaign.

After making 35.8 percent of his three-point attempts as a rookie and sophomore, Wagner plummeted to 28.1 percent in 2023-24.

And that drop overshadowed the improvements in the rest of his game that made the most recent campaign his best.

The strong all-around play has continued into the Olympics, where Wagner averaged 21.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.0 blocks in group play. The poor shooting persisted, too. Wagner went just 4-of-19 from deep.

But Wagner's history and strong free-throw shooting in the NBA and international play are enough to trust his shooting at least. They might even be enough to expect a breakout from the slump as early as this knockout round, which is exactly what we're predicting for the German star.

Canada is favored to beat France in the quarterfinals, but the line suggests the game will be close, and that's almost entirely due to the Rudy Gobert-Victor Wembanyama frontcourt that can completely shut down the paint.

Against any given opponent, including the Canadians, those two can shrink the floor and alter enough shots inside for France to win.

But their quarterfinal foe may have this tournament's best-equipped player to neutralize that duo in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

His obvious strength in that matchup is the ability to draw fouls. SGA will routinely get by the French guards and wings, and once he gets to that back line, his pump fakes and other tricks could get either or both of Gobert and Wembanyama in foul trouble.

But that's not his only potential edge here. Gilgeous-Alexander is also one of the game's most dangerous scorers in the short mid-range. If the rim protectors don't commit to him there, he'll make them pay. If they do, he'll be able to find open shooters outside or potential lob threats stalking the baseline.

His talent and star power will be enough to carry Canada into the next round.