Fantasy Football 2024: Cheatsheet for Sleepers and Busts Heading into Your Draft

Imagine how much easier it would be to navigate the fantasy football world with a crystal ball in hand.

That's what we're trying to provide here.

OK, maybe we don't know exactly how the 2024 NFL season will play out, but we do have a few hunches. More importantly, we have thoughts on a handful of players likely to either outperform or underperform their draft costs.

After laying out our top-30 rankings in point-per-reception leagues, we'll spotlight a sleeper and a bust at each of the three marquee positions.

1. Christian McCaffrey, RB, SF

2. CeeDee Lamb, WR, DAL

3. Ja'Marr Chase, WR, CIN

4. Tyreek Hill, WR, MIA

5. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, DET

6. Breece Hall, RB, NYJ

7. Justin Jefferson, WR, MIN

8. Bijan Robinson, RB, ATL

9. Garrett Wilson, WR, NYJ

10. A.J. Brown, WR, PHI

11. Puka Nacua, WR, LAR

12. Jonathan Taylor, RB, IND

13. Saquon Barkley, RB, PHI

14. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, DET

15. Davante Adams, WR, LV

16. Chris Olave, WR, NO

17. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, ARI

18. Kyren Williams, RB, LAR

19. Josh Allen, QB, BUF

20. Deebo Samuel Sr., WR, SF

21. Drake London, WR, ATL

22. Mike Evans, WR, TB

23. Michael Pittman Jr., WR, IND

24. Travis Etienne Jr., RB, JAX

25. Isiah Pacheco, RB, KC

26. Brandon Aiyuk, WR, SF

27. Nico Collins, WR, HOU

28. Jalen Hurts, QB, PHI

29. Travis Kelce, TE, KC

30. Jaylen Waddle, WR, MIA

Quarterback: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Fantasy folks have officially abandoned the Lawrence hype train it seems, which isn't totally shocking after his touchdown tally dipped (25 to 21) while his interception count climbed (8 to 14) during a disappointing 2023 season. It's also a premature reaction for someone who is this talented this young (24).

He has arm talent and mobility, plus a plethora of playmakers around him. Calvin Ridley may have moved on, but Christian Kirk and Evan Engram are still around, while Gabe Davis and first-round rookie Brian Thomas Jr. have joined the fold. Lawrence could be poised to engineer the kind of breakout effort so many expected to see last season.

Running back: J.K. Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers

Look, it's entirely possible Dobbins will never be able to get on the right side of the injury bug. His last two seasons have been prematurely ended by leg injuries (first an ACL tear, then a torn Achilles), so maybe he's simply snakebitten.

But what if he isn't? This Chargers offense could get a lot more run-heavy under new coach Jim Harbaugh, and with all due respect to Gus Edwards and rookie Kimani Vidal, there aren't major obstacles in front of Dobbins. When he has been able to play, Dobbins has been a consistent source of electricity, averaging a robust 5.8 yards per carry for his career and totaling 13 touchdowns in 24 contests.

Wide receiver: Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City's passing offense lacked verticality this past season. That shouldn't happen with a Patrick Mahomes-led attack, but what was he supposed to do without top-shelf vertical threats?

That's probably why the Chiefs traded up to make Worthy this year's 28th overall pick. The record-breaking speedster turned 204 touches into 2,811 scrimmage yards across three seasons at Texas (13.8 yards per touch) while housing 26 touchdowns in 39 games. Even better, Kansas City could utilize him as more than a deep-ball specialist, since Rashee Rice is facing a possible suspension, Marquise Brown could miss time with a shoulder injury and 34-year-old Travis Kelce isn't getting any younger.

Quarterback: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

It's always a fairly safe bet to question the value of the first quarterback being taken in fantasy drafts. And to be fair to Allen, he's being drafted in that spot for a reason. He is durable and dynamic as both a passer and runner, and it's safe to assume that if he's healthy, he'll be putting up big numbers.

Will they be good enough to justify the cost, though? That's where we aren't convinced. His passing production sagged last season, as his 29 touchdowns were his fewest in four seasons and his 18 touchdowns were the most of his career. His 4.7 yards per carry also tied for the second-fewest of his career. He salvaged his value with 15 rushing touchdowns, which probably isn't sustainable considering his previous high was nine. Tack on the offseason departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, and it's fair to wonder just how potent this passing game will be.

Running back: Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks

Walker has been decent across his first two NFL seasons, but it feels like the fantasy community keeps targeting him for more. Why? He was less efficient as a runner last season (from 4.6 yards per carry to 4.1), and he lost a lot of the passing down work to Zach Charbonnet, a second-round pick in 2023.

Seattle's new regime didn't draft Walker, so it might not be as invested in him. New offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb might also look to push the ball downfield more than the previous coaching staff did. Walker may not bottom out because of his, but be careful about assuming he's locked into top-20 status at the position.

Wide receiver: Keenan Allen, Chicago Bears

Allen has typically been a rock-solid option in fantasy, but are we're sure that's still the case? Injury issues have picked up of late, and his situation objectively worsened this offseason.

He left behind the productive Justin Herbert and now plays in an offense led by rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. It's also unclear where Allen sits on the passing game pecking order, since Williams' other options include DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet and D'Andre Swift.