Mookie Betts Is Back to Revive the Dodgers as NL's Team to Beat

The Los Angeles Dodgers spent much of the last two months mostly just shuffling around, allowing foes to chip away at their pedestal as the National League's de facto favorite.

In their defense, though, arguably their most consequential player was gone the whole time.

After spending 56 days on the injured list with a fractured hand, it was with a bang that Mookie Betts marked his return on Monday. The former MVP's two-run home run started the scoring against the Milwaukee Brewers, pointing the Dodgers' way to becoming the first 70-win team in the NL. He added two more hits in win No. 71 on Tuesday.

"I know Mookie was happy to get back and help his teammates," Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said after Monday's game, which also featured a two-run homer from NL MVP front-runner Shohei Ohtani. "Obviously, it's a lot more fun writing his name in the lineup."

It's been a while since L.A. could partake in anything that approximates easy breathing. And even Betts' return doesn't change the fact that enemies are still at the gates.

What it could do, though, is ensure they never get through.

The Dodgers Are That Much Closer to Full Strength

To get a sense of how much the Dodgers' fortunes changed after Betts took that pitch off his left hand on June 16, get a load of this, via FanGraphs:

• Through June 16: 44-29, 92.4 percent chance of winning NL West
• June 17-August 11: 25-20, 74.5 percent chance of winning NL West

The latter figure is just 1.1 percent above where the Dodgers began when they opened their season on March 20.

It's impossible to separate such a minuscule uptick from Betts' prolonged absence. Before the IL stint, he was in the top six among NL hitters with a .304 average, .405 OBP, .892 OPS, and he even edged Ohtani in fWAR.

Of course things didn't go well without the 31-year-old, yet the weird thing about his return is that the Dodgers aren't merely as good as they were before.

They're better.

Whereas they averaged 4.9 runs per game with Betts through June 16, they slightly improved to 5.0 runs per game in the 45 games he missed. Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernández, Will Smith and Gavin Lux have swung warm bats, but the heavy lifting naturally came via Ohtani, who spent that span amassing a 1.042 OPS, 16 home runs and 17 stolen bases.

"Being able to pencil [Betts'] name in the lineup, we certainly got a lot better," Roberts said before Monday's game. "We're kind of getting to the point where we're putting guys in their respective spots in the order, which adds length and makes us a better ballclub."

Because Betts is moving back to right field, he'll be taking at-bats that had primarily been going to Jason Heyward, whose OPS is down 148 points from 2023. A similar upgrade will be in order next week when Max Muncy, who has a .798 OPS, will return to relieve Enrique Hernández, who has a .617 OPS, at third base.

Having Betts back in right field should also be a net positive for the Dodgers defensively. Even if he's no longer the defender he used to be out there, his willingness to move back allows Miguel Rojas and Nick Ahmed, two strong defenders, to man shortstop.

This can only help a Dodgers pitching staff that was the real culprit behind the club's relative mediocrity during Betts' absence. It went from a 3.26 ERA through 73 games to a 4.62 ERA over the next 45.

Yet things are looking up there, too.

The Dodgers made it through an especially rough patch of pitching injuries when they activated Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw in July. And so far, the early returns on Jack Flaherty and especially Michael Kopech should have the Dodgers thinking they got the best starter and reliever moved at the trade deadline.

They're still waiting on key injuries to heal, including one for $325 million right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto (triceps tightness), who still doesn't have a clear recovery timetable.

The wins are nonetheless starting to pile up, as the Dodgers have won four in a row and seven out of nine. And not a moment too soon.

The NL West Is Far from Won

If the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres still like their chances of taking the NL West crown, well, they should.

Such an outcome seemed unthinkable when the Diamondbacks (11.5 GB on July 2) and Padres (10.0 GB on June 18) had double-digit deficits in the NL West, but that was before both made their claims to the Hottest Team in Baseball.

Since June 29, the Diamondbacks boast an MLB-best record of 29-10. Shift the start of the window to July 20, and the Padres have MLB's best record at 18-3. Either way, the two have identical 68-53 records and are only 3.5 games behind the Dodgers.

The Snakes had a dangerous offense even before Corbin Carroll (.926 OPS in the second half) finally got going, and now Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez are back alongside Zac Gallen, Jordan Montgomery and Brandon Pfaadt in the rotation.

The Padres have been enjoying their own offensive surge with a .796 OPS in the second half, in part thanks to five homers apiece from Manny Machado, Jurickson Profar and increasingly-hard-to-overlook rookie Jackson Merrill.

Fernando Tatis Jr. will eventually add his warmth to the fire again, though the Padres otherwise don't need Yu Darvish to rush back from the restricted list. Their pitching staff's .590 OPS since the All-Star break is by far the lowest in baseball.

The Dodgers do, however, have one advantage that could only loom larger if Betts' strong return off the IL reverberates through the rest of the season: an easy schedule.

According to FanGraphs , only three NL teams have a softer landing than the Dodgers. Neither the Diamondbacks nor the Padres is among that group, which is good news for L.A. given that both Arizona (5-4) and San Diego (7-3) already have winning starts to their respective 13-game sets with the Dodgers.

The Road to the NL Pennant Goes Through the Dodgers

As the Dodgers struggled to a 10-14 stretch between July 2 and August 3, the task for the Diamondbacks and Padres was to catch up. And they nearly did! But now the name of the game is to chase the Dodgers again. To not merely keep pace but to catch up.

And if neither of them can do it, there may not be a team in the National League that can.

Remember when the Philadelphia Phillies seemed like a runaway train? That shouldn't feel like a lifetime ago, but it's amazing how vibes can shift when a team starts 46-29 only to then go 23-30.

Like the Dodgers, the Phillies have the advantage of an easy remaining schedule. Unlike the Dodgers, they played it relatively safe at the deadline and don't stand to get any MVP winners off the IL any time soon. Bryce Harper has already served his time, and his good stroke has only just returned after a cold spell to round out July.

Ultimately, the Dodgers aren't in a position where they need to prove they're the favorites to represent the NL in the World Series. According to odds such as a +170 line at DraftKings and a 28.9 percent chance at FanGraphs, that status is theirs and theirs alone.

All that's left for Betts, Ohtani,and company is to live up to it, starting by capturing the No. 1 seed and their 11th NL West title in 12 seasons.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.