Cowboys' Win-Loss Predictions for 2024 NFL Season

Kristopher Knox@@kris_knoxX.com LogoCorrespondent IAugust 19, 2024

Cowboys' Win-Loss Predictions for 2024 NFL Season

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    Cowboys QB Dak Prescott
    Cowboys QB Dak PrescottPerry Knotts/Getty Images

    The Dallas Cowboys' preseason is nearly complete. Dallas played its second exhibition game on Saturday and is barreling toward its preseason finale, August 27 roster cuts and its regular-season opener against the Cleveland Browns.

    The Cowboys are looking to rebound from an early playoff exit and a tumultuous offseason that has involved notable departures and loads of contract drama. Dallas doesn't necessarily need to improve on last year's 12-5 record, but it needs to finally push past the early rounds of the playoffs.

    Dallas' last trip to the conference title game came in 1995.

    Naturally, though, winning the NEC East will be the best way for the Cowboys to position themselves for the postseason. Can they do it? Let's take a look at what lies ahead and make a few predictions.

Cowboys 2024 Schedule

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    Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb
    Cowboys WR CeeDee LambScott Taetsch/Getty Images

    Week 1: at Cleveland Browns

    Week 2: New Orleans Saints

    Week 3: Baltimore Ravens

    Week 4: at New York Giants

    Week 5: at Pittsburgh Steelers

    Week 6: Detroit Lions

    Week 7: BYE

    Week 8: at San Francisco 49ers

    Week 9: at Atlanta Falcons

    Week 10: Philadelphia Eagles

    Week 11: Houston Texans

    Week 12: at Washington Commanders

    Week 13: New York Giants

    Week 14: Cincinnati Bengals

    Week 15: at Carolina Panthers

    Week 16: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    Week 17: at Philadelphia Eagles

    Week 18: Washington Commanders

Analysis and Expectations

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    Cowboys OT Tyler Guyton
    Cowboys OT Tyler GuytonKevork Djansezian/Getty Images

    The Cowboys lost several key 2023 contributors this offseason, including Tyron Smith, Tyler Biadasz, Tony Pollard, Dorance Armstrong and Stephon Gilmore. Dallas also refrained from an aggressive free-agent approach to replacing them.

    Ezekiel Elliott and Eric Kendricks represent Dallas' "big" free-agent additions.

    This means that the Cowboys will be relying heavily on rookies like center Cooper Beenbe and left tackle Tyler Guyton. The good news is that the rookies have handled themselves well in the preseason and are taking the challenge in stride.

    "I feel like when you think about it too much, it usually messes you up, so I'm just gonna go do the best I can and put my best foot forward," Guyton said, per Dan Greenspan of the Associated Press.

    CeeDee Lamb's contract holdout may impact his rhythm in the early season, and Dak Prescott will be under the microscope in a contract year. However, the expectations for Dallas are still reasonably high.

    The Cowboys' over/under for wins currently sits at 9.5, according to DraftKings Sportsbook, Dallas also has the second-best odds at +160 (bet $100 to win $160) to win the NFC East, behind the Philadelphia Eagles.

    Dallas is also among the favorites to win the NFC at +700, behind only the Eagles, Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers.

Predictions

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    Cowboys QB Dak Prescott
    Cowboys QB Dak PrescottRic Tapia/Getty Images

    If the Cowboys don't return to the playoffs in 2024, it'll be a surprise. Assuming Lamb returns to the field in Pro Bowl form, Dallas still has one of the stronger rosters in the NFL, and they have, for now, a high-end quarterback in Prescott.

    However, the transition along the offensive line could take time, and Dallas isn't likely to benefit from a strong ground game. The committee of Ezekiel Elliott, Deuce Vaughn, Rico Dowdle and Royce Freeman is not one of the better backfields in the NFL.

    The Cowboys also lack reliable receive depth behind Lamb, so a lot of games may be won or lost by the Dallas defense. With players like Micah Parsons, Trevon Diggs and DaRon Bland in the fold, the Cowboys do have the pieces in place to win defensively. A lot may depend on how new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer maximizes his talent, though.

    Dallas' postseason path also won't be an easy one. Teams like Detroit, San Francisco, Philadelphia and the Green Bay Packers are likely to present big challenges in the playoffs. Getting to the postseason, at least, shouldn't be a daunting challenge.

    While the Cowboys faced the league's third-toughest schedule last season, they are tied for the 12th-toughest schedule this year, based on 2023 winning percentage (.505).

    The final stretch—which will feature two 2023 playoff teams in the final three games—could be challenging. However, as long as Dallas can avoid potential trap games, especially those within the division, it should be right back in the playoffs.

    The prediction here is that a rejuvenated Eagles team retakes the NFC East, while the Cowboys roll into the postseason as a wild-card team.

    Win-Loss Prediction: 10-7


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