Ranking MLB's Top 10 AL and NL MVP Candidates

With almost exactly one month remaining in the 2024 Major League Baseball season, the races for Most Valuable Player in each league have all but been decided. Aaron Judge in the American League and Shohei Ohtani in the National League are well on their way to adding another trophy to their respective mantles.

It's not over yet, though, and there are quite a few strong candidates in each league worthy of more national recognition outside the shadow of those two superstars.

Eventually, 30 MVP ballots will be submitted in each league with 10 players on each ballot.

Here's our best guess at the order of those 10 players if the season ended today.

We'll start out by grouping together the pitchers and then the hitters who are looking good to land somewhere in the Nos. 5-10 range of the MVP vote, but each player in the top four of each league's MVP race will get his own section, oscillating between the two leagues before concluding with the clear favorites.

Each of these four pitchers is having a dynamite season and should be headed for at least a handful of down-ballot votes for MVP. Last year's Cy Young winners (Gerrit Cole and Blake Snell) narrowly missed finishing top-10 for MVP, while 2022's winners (Justin Verlander and Sandy Alcantara) both landed in exactly 10th place.

None of them should be considered a serious candidate to actually win MVP, though.

NL No. 9: Paul Skenes, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates

104.0 IP, 8-2, 2.16 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 11.3 K/9, 4.5 bWAR

Skenes is probably going to win NL Rookie of the Year—though, Jackson Merrill is putting up one hell of a fight with all of his late-inning heroics for a team that's likely going to make the postseason.

Skenes is also likely going to finish top-five in the NL Cy Young vote.

Why not a few MVP votes, given there was a two-month stretch in the middle of the season where we basically couldn't talk about baseball without also having a conversation about Skenes?

The Pirates have made no indication that they plan to shut him down in September, and he should land in the top 10 if he makes another five or so starts at anywhere near the level of excellence he has shown thus far.

AL No. 7: Emmanuel Clase, RHP, Cleveland Guardians

61.1 IP, 4-2, 38 SV, 0.59 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 3.8 bWAR

It takes an awful lot for a closer to get MVP consideration. And while Clase's numbers are phenomenal, they're quite similar to what got Fernando Rodney a 13th-place finish in 2012 with Tampa Bay (48 saves, 0.60 ERA, 0.78 WHIP).

That same year, Atlanta's Craig Kimbrel (42 saves, 1.01 ERA, 0.65 WHIP) placed eighth in the NL MVP vote, which was the most recent time a relief pitcher landed in the top 10.

However, the dominance of Cleveland's bullpen is well-regarded as the primary reason the Guardians have been so much better than anticipated. As long as they make the playoffs—they absolutely should—Clase is going to finish top-10 for MVP.

If he can more or less maintain his current minuscule ERA and WHIP while Cleveland secures the AL No. 1 seed, Clase may well become the first relief pitcher to finish top-five in an MVP vote since Baltimore's Randy Myers landed in fourth place in 1997. At any rate, there's a case to be made that he is behind only Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. in this value-added race.

NL No. 7: Chris Sale, LHP, Atlanta Braves

147.2 IP, 14-3, 2.62 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 11.6 K/9, 4.7 bWAR

There's still a chance Zack Wheeler will overtake Sale for NL Cy Young, but it should be the Atlanta ace's trophy to lose.

Save for one baffling eight-run blip against Oakland in early June, Sale has held each of his past 20 foes to two earned runs or fewer, including half a dozen outings with at least 10 strikeouts. During that time, he has had a 2.27 ERA and an even better 1.81 FIP, suggesting he has been a bit unlucky while racking up better than six whiffs per free pass issued.

Similar to Clase in the AL, Sale should get a vote bump if Atlanta ultimately makes the postseason. Goodness knows he has been one of the few things keeping that team afloat.

AL No. 6: Tarik Skubal, LHP, Detroit Tigers

160.1 IP, 15-4, 2.58 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, 5.4 bWAR

Excluding Shane Bieber's dominance for two months in 2020, you have to go back to 2006 and Johan Santana to find the last time a pitcher pulled off the MLB Triple Crown, which is leading the majors in each of wins, ERA and strikeouts.

But Skubal has a chance.

As of Tuesday morning, he was leading the majors in all three categories—tied with Dylan Cease at 193 strikeouts, one win ahead of the trio of Sale, Seth Lugo and Carlos Rodón and 0.04 ahead of Sale in the ERA department. (Both Skenes and Reynaldo López have a better ERA, but it's unlikely either will reach 162 IP.)

If he can do it, Skubal ought to win AL Cy Young unanimously and land somewhere in the sixth-place range for MVP.

NL No. 10: Matt Chapman, 3B, San Francisco Giants

.242/.330/.434, 20 HR, 63 RBI, 13 SB, 5.3 bWAR

Chappy's mediocre triple-slash will keep him from seriously vying for MVP, but there's little question he has been the biggest thing keeping the Giants alive in the postseason conversation. Not only has he played in darn near every game for a team that otherwise does not have a single player with enough plate appearances to qualify for a batting title, but he is also very likely headed for the fifth Gold Glove of his career, if not the third Platinum Glove, too.

AL No. 10: Jarren Duran, OF, Boston Red Sox

.293/.353/.523, 19 HR, 67 RBI, 32 SB, 7.9 bWAR

From a purely WAR perspective, Duran destroys everyone else in this tier. His combination of 74 extra-base hits and 32 stolen bases is slightly ridiculous, and he's adding quite a bit of value with his glove in the outfield. However, Boston probably isn't going to make the postseason, Duran was initially the biggest snub in the All-Star voting process, he might not be the top vote-getter from his own team (Rafael Devers may well edge him out) and his recent two-game suspension for directing a homophobic slur at a fan did absolutely nothing to help his cause here.

AL No. 9: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Toronto Blue Jays

.321/.398/.558, 27 HR, 87 RBI, 5.2 bWAR

Toronto's spot in dead last in the AL East standings won't do Guerrero any favors in this vote. However, in 100 games played since the beginning of May, he's batting .350 with a 162-game pace of 39 home runs and 123 RBI. It's not his fault the Blue Jays have gone 49-51 in those games.

NL No. 8: William Contreras, C/DH, Milwaukee Brewers

.283/.357/.461, 17 HR, 74 RBI, 3.5 bWAR

Milwaukee's MVP shares were going to go to Christian Yelich, but he only lasted 73 games before his season-ending back injury. Brice Turang, Willy Adames or even rookie Jackson Chourio could be that team leader for votes now, but Contreras is probably the pick for the second successive year. After finishing 11th in the vote in 2023, he has been a little bit better this time around, particularly as of late with a 1.005 OPS in his first 22 games played in August. If the Brewers happen to secure the NL's No. 1 seed, don't sleep on Contreras possibly finishing top-five.

AL No. 8: Yordan Alvarez, DH/LF, Houston Astros

.305/.395/.543, 25 HR, 67 RBI, 4.0 bWAR

It's a shame Kyle Tucker has been AWOL for nearly three months at this point, as he was very much in the mix for AL MVP when he fouled that ball off his shin. Since the beginning of June, though, Alvarez has put on quite the show while the Astros turned their season around, batting .338 with a 1.079 OPS. That hardly holds a candle to Aaron Judge's mark of 1.333 during that same window, but Alvarez is basically in a five-way tie with Bobby Witt Jr., Juan Soto, Ketel Marte and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for second-best OPS in the majors since June 1.

NL No. 6: Bryce Harper, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies

.277/.367/.524, 26 HR, 76 RBI, 3.6 bWAR

When Harper landed on the IL with a hamstring strain in late June, he was on the short list of players who might have been able to edge out Shohei Ohtani for NL MVP. Since returning from that minimal stay on the shelf, however, neither he nor the Phillies have been the same. Harper has a sub-.700 OPS over the past two months while the Dodgers have blown right by them in the race for the NL's No. 1 seed. Someone from the Phillies is bound to finish comfortably in the top 10 of the NL MVP vote, though, and Harper is the most likely candidate.

AL No. 5: José Ramírez, 3B, Cleveland Guardians

.277/.336/.539, 33 HR, 103 RBI, 32 SB, 5.1 bWAR

Through all the hoopla of Ohtani reaching the 40/40 club faster than anyone ever had before, Ramírez is kind of quietly on pace to get there, too, thanks to a recent surge of 12 stolen bases in 20 games. He's never gotten to 40 in either category before, maxing out at 39 home runs and 34 stolen bases in 2018, but it would be mighty difficult to ignore those numbers if he gets there. That said, the vote split with teammate Emmanuel Clase might keep him out of the top five.

NL No. 5: Elly De La Cruz, SS, Cincinnati Reds

.265/.348/.490, 22 HR, 59 RBI, 61 SB, 4.4 bWAR

After stealing 30 bases in his first 44 games, it took another 81 contests for De La Cruz to get the next 30. Still, he is leading the majors in that department by a wide margin, plausibly could still end up with a 25 HR, 75 SB campaign and should fare quite well in this glorified popularity contest. With a sub-.850 OPS on a sub-.500 team, though, even projecting a top-five finish might be a bit generous.

Season Stats: .298/.370/.560, 30 HR, 81 RBI, 6.0 bWAR

In early August, Ketel Marte was starting to emerge as perhaps the only viable candidate to keep Shohei Ohtani from winning NL MVP.

From July 23 through August 7, Arizona had slashed Los Angeles' lead in the NL West from nine games down to just three, thanks in large part to Marte playing out of his mind with 10 home runs in the span of 15 games.

Unfortunately, he injured his ankle on August 10 when Philadelphia's Garrett Stubbs over-slid second base and kind of bent Marte's lower leg the wrong way. He tried to battle through the pain, but crumpled to the ground in a heap during a pinch-hitting appearance a week later and is presently on the IL.

If he returns in the next few days and puts together a reasonably strong September, though, there's still a decent chance he'll be the first runner-up for NL MVP.

At any rate, Marte has been the brightest star for what has been the most potent offense in baseball. Even with Soto and Judge on an historic two-batter tear this season, the Yankees are a distant second behind the Diamondbacks in total runs scored, with Marte leading the team in hits, home runs and RBI.

What might hurt his case, though, is that the Snakes have been (at least temporarily) more than fine without him, racking up an 11-3 record and 100 total runs in the 14 games (7.1 per game) since the one in which Marte first got hurt.

Remaining in the hunt for the NL West title is most definitely a plus, though, as that will ensure a lot of eyes around the world are on Marte and Co. over the final month of the regular season.

Season Stats: .296/.427/.600, 37 HR, 95 RBI, 7.5 bWAR

It's always an interesting dynamic when two players from the same team are in the conversation for MVP, especially if one of the two clearly pulls away from the pack.

We saw it last year in Atlanta, when Ronald Acuña Jr. unanimously won NL MVP, leaving teammate Matt Olson—despite leading the majors in both home runs (54) and RBI (139) by a fairly wide margin—to settle for a fourth-place finish.

It also happened in the AL in 2018, when Mookie Betts (then with Boston) secured 28 of the 30 first-place votes while teammate J.D. Martinez finished in fourth with 43 home runs, an MLB-best 130 RBI and a 1.031 OPS.

Might Soto be headed for the same fate before he enters an extremely lucrative free agency?

One could easily argue that Soto should be the 1B to Aaron Judge's 1A in this race. After all, it's because of Soto's impeccable on-base percentage that Judge has actually had more plate appearances this season with men on base (292) than with the bases empty (290), translating to both RBI opportunities and pitchers being reluctant to pitch around Judge—unless it's immediately following a Soto double/triple that leaves a base open.

At this point in Judge's outrageous run, though, is anyone really putting Soto ahead of him on an MVP ballot?

And regardless of how incredible their combined season has been, are voters going to be comfortable with having both Yankees ahead of both Bobby Witt Jr. and Gunnar Henderson, who are having Herculean years in their own right?

Maybe this changes in September, but if the vote were held today, Soto would likely land well behind both Judge and Witt, as well as slightly behind Henderson.

Season Stats: .269/.339/.487, 27 HR, 78 RBI, 25 SB, 5.8 bWAR

In recent weeks, there has been quite the groundswell of support coming in for Francisco Lindor in this race.

Lindor was the well-paid face of New York's struggles through the first two months of the season. Through 45 games, he was hitting .190 with a .617 OPS. And though he did hit much better in his next 10 contests, no one else on the team did as the Mets plummeted to 22-33.

Hypothetical Pete Alonso trade packages became the topic du jour, with Lindor much more a candidate for LVP than MVP during that annual tradition of starting to legitimately look at the standings and the awards races around Memorial Day.

Since May 30, however, the Mets have gone 46-30, with Lindor starting every game at shortstop and batting .310 with 19 home runs and 19 stolen bases. (That's a 162-game pace of a 41/41 season.)

Is it enough, though?

A 41/41 pace over the course of 76 games is swell, but Shohei Ohtani is one stolen base away from actually hitting those marks for the year. And while the Mets are 16 games above .500 for the third-best record in baseball over the past three months, they're still 2.5 games behind the Braves for the final wild-card spot—which feels particularly relevant in trying to decide whether New York's everyday shortstop or Atlanta's everyday DH is more worthy of second-place votes on MVP ballots.

One thing's for sure: Lindor and the Mets have made things interesting.

If the last playoff spot is decided during the three-game set in Atlanta from Sept. 24-26, perhaps that could be a last-minute surge to some first-place consideration.

Season Stats: .282/.369/.545, 33 HR, 78 RBI, 15 SB, 7.6 bWAR

In the build up to the All-Star Game, the toughest debate was Gunnar Henderson or Bobby Witt Jr. as the AL's starting shortstop.

At the end of June, the Orioles' linchpin had a .988 OPS with 26 home runs and 13 stolen bases, compared to the Royals star's marks of .897, 12 and 22, respectively. Witt was providing a little more value on defense, but Henderson getting the start seemed like the right call, as he was the top challenger to Aaron Judge for AL MVP at that time.

Since the beginning of July, however, it has been a much different story. Witt is batting .412 with a 1.233 OPS while Henderson is sitting at .271 and .783, respectively.

Respectable marks, to be sure. Henderson is still a top-five AL shortstop over the course of those two months. But if we were voting on the All-Star Game right now, there's really no question that Witt gets the start, and that he's the better candidate for AL MVP.

Where this could get interesting again, though, is the final standings.

The way things currently stand—with Baltimore as the No. 4 seed and Kansas City the No. 5 seed—wouldn't make any difference in an MVP vote. But if the O's can overtake the Yankees for the No. 1 seed and/or if the Royals falter down the stretch and let Boston or Seattle take their spot in the postseason field, that could be a game-changer.

Season Stats: .307/.379/.583, 37 HR, 96 RBI, 4.2 bWAR

Marcell Ozuna is leading the National League in batting average. He is also leading the league in RBI. And he is close enough to Shohei Ohtani in the home runs department (41) that it's not out of the question Ozuna could join Miguel Cabrera as the only players in more than half a century to hit for a Triple Crown.

The last four players to do so all won MVP, two of them unanimously so.

If Ozuna pulls it off and it results in Atlanta making the postseason despite basically every other regular in that lineup either underachieving, suffering a considerable injury or both, it becomes even more impressive.

Yet, it most likely still wouldn't be enough to win MVP, unless the reason he bypasses Ohtani in the home run department is because the Dodgers star either misses the final month of the season due to injury or otherwise absolutely crashes and burns.

Triple Crowns are extremely rare, but there have been more of those in MLB history than there have been 40/40 seasons. And if and when Ohtani makes it to 43/43 (let alone 45/45 or 50/50), he'll become the first player to ever do so.

There's also the fact that Ozuna simply isn't close to Ohtani in WAR, neither on Baseball-Reference nor on FanGraphs. It'd be one thing if we were comparing a Triple Crown to a 40/40 season and the two players had identical wins above replacement ratings, but that's not the case here.

To be clear, though, Atlanta's DH is having a fabulous season. He's going to finish top-five for MVP for the first time in his career, and probably No. 2.

Just...not No. 1.

Season Stats: .347/.399/.615, 27 HR, 94 RBI, 27 SB, 8.8 bWAR

Every single time you look at the MLB headlines, it's Aaron Judge this, Shohei Ohtani that.

And, you know, with good reason. What those stars are doing while leading MLB's two biggest franchises to possible No. 1 seeds is a massive deal.

It sure is an injustice, though, that there isn't enough room in the daily spotlight for what Bobby Witt Jr. has been doing.

Barring some sort of collapse in September, Witt is going to become just the ninth player in MLB history with at least 30 home runs, 30 stolen bases and a .330 batting average in a single season. Four of the past five (1997 Larry Walker, 2011 Ryan Braun, 2018 Mookie Betts and 2023 Ronald Acuña Jr.) won MVP, with the lone exception being 2002 Vladimir Guerrero who played during a four-year window when no one in the NL could possibly hold a candle to Barry Bonds.

As noted in the Gunnar Henderson discussion, Witt has been playing particularly out of his mind since the beginning of July. He hit .489 in July alone and has 33 extra-base hits in his last 46 games.

Then there's the team improvement factor.

Kansas City was a 106-loss disaster one season ago, and the Royals still don't have much in their lineup beyond Witt. They legitimately might have the least valuable outfield in the majors this season, and the bullpen is a hot mess, save for the trade-deadline addition of Lucas Erceg. Yet, they are in playoff position and only 4.5 games back for the best record in baseball.

The WAR calculations say Witt has been worth about nine wins this season, but it sure feels like he has been worth closer to 30, batting .409/.462/.689 this season with runners on base while spearheading one of the greatest single-season turnarounds in MLB history.

The betting markets have all but chiseled Judge's name into the AL MVP trophy at this point, but that's B.S.

Witt could absolutely still win this thing.

Season Stats: .292/.378/.615, 41 HR, 94 RBI, 40 SB, 6.6 bWAR

Shohei Ohtani always did have some speed on the basepaths while with the Los Angeles Angels, racking up 86 stolen bases in 119 attempts over the previous six seasons. He also had at least five triples in each of the previous four 162-game seasons, showing he was never exactly a David Ortiz or Mo Vaughn type of designated hitter.

Nobody saw 40 (possibly 50) stolen bases coming, though.

Ohtani has already destroyed his previous career high of 26 in that department. It's only going to be a matter of time before he surpasses his previous bests in each of runs, home runs, RBI, hits, doubles and total bases.

The 50/50 watch the rest of the way probably is going to be an even bigger daily story than Aaron Judge's quest to break his own AL HR record. Even if Ohtani falls a bit shy of that mark, though, this is easily going to go down as the best offensive season of the two-time MVP's career.

The novelty of his game is nowhere near the same without the pitching, and his overall bWAR isn't going to come all that close to matching his 9.5 average from the past three seasons. If he was still playing for a hapless Angels team in the American League, his MVP odds would be somewhere in the third-best to fifth-best range.

In the National League, though, he's the home run leader, he's two back for the RBI lead and a batting title isn't completely out of the question, currently 15 points behind in that department.

It's nowhere near the "they could shut Ohtani down for the year on Sept. 3 and he'd still win it unanimously" slam dunk of an MVP trophy that it was one year ago, but this race is just about over as long as he stays healthy.

Season Stats: .333/.465/.732, 51 HR, 122 RBI, 9.4 bWAR

It's kind of preposterous to think that Aaron Judge is—aside from himself in both 2017 and 2022—the only American League player in more than a decade to hit at least 50 home runs in a single season.

This with an entire month yet to be played and in spite of the fact we were wondering one-sixth of the way through this campaign if he was OK in his recovery from a toe injury.

You remember those 27 games, right?

When after a Trivial Pursuit wedge's worth of the regular season, Judge was batting .178 and slugging .356, on pace for 24 home runs and 78 RBI?

In the four months since then, he's hitting .376 and slugging .837, mashing 47 home runs and driving in 109 runs for a 162-game pace of 74 HR and 171 RBI.

The former would break Barry Bonds' all-time record of 73 in a single season. The latter would rank seventh in MLB history and would be the highest mark since Jimmie Foxx drove in 175 in 1938. And we're talking about a pace from nearly two-thirds of a full season, not exactly a small portion of the calendar.

People keep citing what kind of home run pace Judge is on, but that 63 mark you probably saw floating around after he hit his 51st home run was based on his full-season pace. If we instead assume he'll keep up his pace of one home run for every 0.46 games played over the past four months, he's actually trending toward 65.

Either way, it's absurd. And with all due respect to the incredible season that Bobby Witt Jr. is having, if Judge gets to 65 dingers while no one else in the AL even sniffs 50, Judge is going to win this unanimously.