NFL Week 1 Survivor Pool Tips: Best Picks and Strategies to Stay Alive

On the eve of the 2024 regular-season opener, many NFL fans are hatching plans for fantasy football matchups, parlays, bets and daily fantasy sports (DFS) games. While the survivor pool isn't exactly mainstream, it remains another terrific way to add a little spice to the weekly football schedule.

Week 1 is where it all starts, and it can be the trickiest point of the first half of the season for survivor players. We don't know, entirely, how much teams have changed since last season, and sloppy, mistake-filled play is often a hallmark of the opening slate.

No one wants to have their pool busted because of a few Week 1 miscues.

Picks must be made, however. Here, you'll find a few tips and tricks for navigating an NFL survivor pool in 2024. You'll also find some top picks for Week 1, using the latest odds as a guideline.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

For those new to survivor pools, it's important to remember that—in most pools, anyway—you can only pick a team to win once during the season. That's why it can be smart to pass on picking a top contender early in order to save them for a later date—though some players will still prefer a "safe" choice.

The problem is that we don't know which teams are truly great at this point in the year. The San Francisco 49ers were a powerhouse in 2023, but they didn't have Christian McCaffrey (calf) or Brandon Aiyuk (hold-in) during training camp, while left tackle Trent Williams only ended his holdout on Tuesday.

Picking San Francisco against a New York Jets team that may or may not be great with a healthy Aaron Rodgers is a massive gamble.

There's going to be some level of risk with any Week 1 selection, so the trick is to know which games to avoid. It's generally a good idea to pass on divisional matchups until a team has firmly established itself as a contender or a basement-dweller.

Other games we'd recommend avoiding entirely include the Dallas Cowboys and Cleveland Browns matchup and the battle between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins.

The Browns are 2.5-point favorites over the Cowboys but are not even close to a safe choice. While Cleveland won its opener last season, it has been historically awful in Week 1 games. The Browns also have serious questions at quarterback and offensive tackle. Against a disruptive Dallas pass rush, that's a problem.

Conversely, it's impossible to trust Dallas and its rebuilt offensive line against Myles Garrett and Cleveland's defense.

The Dolphins are three-point favorites over Jacksonville, but this is another one that is too close to call. Miami had the better record last season, but the Jags were 6-2 at midseason, before injuries started to hamper Trevor Lawrence.

Lawrence is healthy, and Miami's rebuilt line could struggle against Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen. Both teams have far more favorable matchups in the first half of the season.

The Jags will face the New England Patriots in Week 7, while the Dolphins will face the Patriots in Week 5 and the Arizona Cardinals in Week 8.

There are some reasons to avoid the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1. Cincinnati has come out flat the last couple of years, and they still don't know for sure if star receiver Ja'Marr Chase (contract hold-in) will be available.

The Bengals could also be worth saving for later matchups, like in Week 6 against the New York Giants and Week 9 against the Las Vegas Raiders.

However, survivor participants who aren't willing to risk much in Week 1 can feel good about picking Cincinnati. The Bengals are 8.5-point favorites over the Patriots for several reasons.

Cincinnati is at home, it has a healthy Joe Burrow under center, and it's hosting a New England team that lacks offensive talent. The Patriots have questions along the offensive line, still have one of the league's most underwhelming receiving corps and will start journeyman Jacoby Brissett at quarterback.

The Bengals might not dominate like they probably would midseason, but if they can't fend off New England at home, they'll be at risk of having the season unravel early.

The Buffalo Bills are six-point favorites against the Arizona Cardinals and represent another "safe" pick in Week 1. However, Buffalo is much riskier than Cincinnati because the Cardinals do have offensive talent.

Kyler Murray is healthy, and the addition of rookie receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. can make Arizona dangerous. Buffalo should win, but a couple of turnovers by Josh Allen could cost the Bills in a big way—as was the case in last year's season opener.

Those looking to take a risk in Week 1 should instead consider the Seattle Seahawks (-6) over the Denver Broncos. This is still no "sure-thing" matchup, but there's a lot to like. Seattle has a tremendous home-field advantage, while the Broncos will be starting rookie quarterback Bo Nix against an aggressive Mike Macdonald defense.

The other factor to consider is that after Seattle's Week 2 game at New England, Seattle's only truly favorable matchup is a Week 5 home game against the Giants.

And while the Broncos are probably a tougher matchup than the Patriots, on paper, next week's cross-country trip could be tricky.

Getting Seattle out of the way now may create better options later in the season.

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