Week 4 NFL Picks: Early Odds to Exploit for Best Over/Under Box Score Bets

The 2024 NFL season continues to be as unpredictable as one could imagine. Each of the first three weeks delivered stunning upsets, and that trend is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.

Bettors who are having difficulty navigating the game lines might want to consider shuffling in a few box-score bets. Whether wagers involve specific players or scoring thresholds, they can provide a fun alternative to picking which team will win and/or by how much.

Here, you'll find a few enticing box-score over/unders to consider for Week 4, based on factors such as recent production, projected roles, individual matchups and the early lines.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is coming off a 379-yard passing performance against the Baltimore Ravens. He's also the centerpiece of the Cowboys offense, which has one of the worst backfields in the NFL.

So why back the under at -115 (bet $115 to win $100) for this passing prop? It has everything to do with the matchup.

While the New York Giants have started to find an offensive rhythm by feeding rookie receiver Malik Nabers, they're highly unlikely to jump out to an early lead against Dallas. That should keep the Cowboys' offense balanced, which it wasn't against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday.

Prescott attempted 51 passes in that game, while Dallas ran just 16 times.

Leaning on Rico Dowdle, Ezekiel Elliott and the ground game is also the most sensible plan against an improved New York pass rush. While the Giants rank 11th in net yards per pass attempt allowed, they rank just 27th in yards per carry allowed.

Dallas' run game isn't good (19th in yards per carry), but it can have some success against the Giants. If it doesn't, and Prescott is forced to carry the offense once again, the Cowboys could easily fall to 1-3.

Another over/under line to like for Thursday involves Giants running back Devin Singletary. He's -115 to top 16.5 receiving yards, and he should do it in this matchup.

Last week, New York frequently used short passes and screens to counter an aggressive Cleveland Browns pass rush. The tactic helped the Giants tally 340 yards of total offense while keeping Daniel Jones clean more often than not (two sacks allowed).

New York should use a similar approach against Micah Parsons and the Dallas pass rush, which will mean a good number of targets for Singletary. Like the Browns, the Cowboys can play too aggressively and allow backs to leak out of the backfield uncontested.

Last week, Ravens running back Derrick Henry caught a 23-yard pass, while Justice Hill caught two passes for 21 yards.

Singletary caught four passes for 43 yards against the Browns, and he could have even bigger numbers this week—depending on whether the Cowboys can contain Malik Nabers where Cleveland could not.

Though the odds aren't quite as favorable (-155), the over on Singletary's receptions line (2.5) is another strong play for Week 4.

The Indianapolis Colts picked up a win in Week 3, though it wasn't exactly due to a stellar offensive performance. While they did amass 21 points and 306 total yards, they were just 3-of-12 on third down and got another inconsistent game out of Anthony Richardson.

The second-year quarterback finished 10-of-20 with two interceptions and 24 rushing yards.

This week, Richardson and the Colts will host the Pittsburgh Steelers and their league-leading defense—which ranks first in both yards and points allowed.

The Steelers haven't allowed more than 10 points in a game this season, and they have the defensive playmakers needed to confuse and disrupt a young QB still learning to play the position.

Pittsburgh won't have No. 2 edge-rusher Alex Highsmith, who is expected to miss time with a groin injury, but T.J. Watt, Joey Porter Jr. and the rest of the defense can pressure Richardson into another mistake-filled outing.

While the Colts will be at home, Steelers fans travel, so Indy is unlikely to experience a significant home-field advantage.

Fans shouldn't expect a breakout offensive game from the Colts offense this week, and they should strongly consider taking the under (-110) on a team-scoring line of 19.5 points.

While the Colts-Steelers matchup should be a low-scoring affair, the battle between the Arizona Cardinals and Washington Commanders could be a veritable track meet.

Washington and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels put their offensive prowess on display against the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday night in a 38-33 score fest. Points may be in shorter supply against Arizona—which has an improved defense, one playing better than Cincinnati's—but we still like the over at -108.

This is a high line, but these two teams can hit it. The Cardinals defense—ranked 17th in yards allowed, 18th in points allowed—is merely average, while Washington's defense has been horrendous against the pass.

Expect Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray and rookie receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. to light up the stat sheet, just as Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase did on Monday.

And while Arizona is better equipped to defend the run than Cincinnati, Washington should be able to do enough on the ground to keep the Cardinals defense honest.

Daniels may flash as a scrambler, but he showed against the Bengals that he's fully capable of dissecting a defense through the air.

This should be one of the more exciting games of the weekend, and with two dynamic quarterbacks at the helm, the over/under is likely to rise during the week.