Ranking 5 Potential First-Time NBA MVP Candidates

Big men have dominated the NBA MVP award as of late, with Nikola Jokić (2024, 2022 and 2021), Joel Embiid (2023) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (2020, 2019) combining to win the last six.

This year, we could well see a new MVP emerge.

Jokić's Denver Nuggets got worse this offseason with the loss of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and some voter fatigue may finally set in. Embiid has only hit the (fairly) new rule of 65 games played to be eligible for postseason awards twice in his 10-year career. Antetokounmpo's Milwaukee Bucks may slide a bit in the East with teams such as the New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers, Cleveland Cavaliers, Orlando Magic and Indiana Pacers all on the rise.

The following five players will make a real case for MVP this season, an award that would be the first (although, maybe not the last) of their careers.

2023-24 MVP Finish: N/A

The San Antonio Spurs' franchise pillar isn't even old enough to order a margarita, yet he is going to start garnering some real MVP attention as early as this year.

Victor Wembanyama was the unanimous Rookie of the Year after he averaged 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.2 steals and led the NBA with 3.6 blocks a game.

It's scary to think the Spurs had their prized rookie on a bit of a leash last season, as he averaged just 29.7 minutes a game and often played with a second big on the court (mostly Zach Collins) for the first quarter of the year.

By the end of the season and with the playoffs out of reach, Wembanyama started to show what he was truly capable of with increased minutes and a few months of experience behind him.

The 20-year-old posted averages of 28.1 points, 13.3 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 1.3 steals, 4.6 blocks and shot 9.0 (!!!) threes per game (on a respectable 34.9 percent accuracy) over his final seven games, perhaps giving us a glimpse into what the 2024-25 season is going to look like.

San Antonio's record could hurt his chances as MVP, although this team should be noticeably better with a year of development for the young core and the additions of veterans such as Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes.

A play-in spot in the West is a real possibility. If Wembanyama looks like the best defensive player in basketball and is posting averages of 25 points, 12 rebounds, five assists and four blocks a night, he'll get some MVP votes.

2023-24 MVP Finish: 6th

Jayson Tatum has finished in the top-six spots in MVP voting each of the past three years and should be entering the prime of his career at age 26.

Whether he wants to admit it or not, there's likely some extra motivation to prove himself as one of the NBA's elite players after watching teammate Jaylen Brown win MVP of both the Finals and Eastern Conference Finals, an award most would have assumed would go to Tatum if Boston won.

His small role on the Summer Olympics team, including being benched at times, has reportedly sparked a fire inside him as well.

Shams Charania, then of The Athletic, reported Tatum's MVP desire on the The Pat McAfee Show in September:

"Jayson Tatum, he was telling people around USA basketball—and this was something that people around USA basketball heard—he really took that motivation from what happened at the Olympics. He has MVP goals in his mind, whether that's this year. But that is fully on his mind as far as what he can accomplish in this league. You look at everything he's done already at such a young age already, winning a championship. That is the next step for him, to rise to that MVP level."

With Kristaps Porziņģis likely out until December following ankle surgery, Tatum's scoring numbers should pop in the early part of the season. He averaged 30.1 points per game the season before Porziņģis arrived and could hover around this figure for the first quarter of the year.

Tatum's case will also be helped by the success of the Celtics, a team that deserves to be in its own preseason tier. Boston could be the only team to win more than 60 games again and re-signed or extended all of their rotation players this offseason.

The play of Brown may chip away at Tatum's candidacy, but the combination of raw stats, team success and durability will land him a top spot once again.

2023-24 MVP Finish: 7th

It seems inevitable that Anthony Edwards will win an MVP one day.

Last season marked a breakthrough for the Georgia product, as the 2020 No. 1 overall pick made an All-NBA team for the first time while also earning his second All-Star game appearance.

It's easy to overlook just how young Edwards still is, as his 302 games over the past four seasons have all come at age 22 or younger. The new U.S. Olympic team member turned 23 last month and could still be half a decade away from reaching his prime.

This doesn't mean he shouldn't be one of the MVP favorites now, though.

His raw stats are good enough already (25.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 1.3 steals) and Edwards has played in nearly 95 percent of his team's games the past four years, showcasing his ability to clear the 65-game mandatory hurdle.

He has also demonstrated his value by carrying the Minnesota Timberwolves with or without Karl-Anthony Towns on the floor. They went 56-26 last season (68.3 percent) including 14-6 (70.0 percent) in games Towns missed due to injury, largely thanks to Edwards.

The high-flyer has elite defensive potential as well and could add some credibility to his MVP case if he rises to an All-Defensive team level this season.

Edwards could be the first American-born player to win MVP since James Harden in 2018 and is the USA's best chance at fielding a winner this upcoming season.

2023-24 MVP Finish: 2nd

The last two seasons have established Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as one of the NBA's elite players.

During this time he's made two All-Star games, two first-team All-NBA nods and two top-five MVP finishes, including runner-up to Nikola Jokić last year. He's carried the young Oklahoma City Thunder up the standings, all the way to the No. 1 seed in the West after securing 57 victories in 2023-24.

OKC is going to be even better this season with the additions of Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein, and Gilgeous-Alexander may see even more playmaking responsibility with Josh Giddey traded to the Chicago Bulls. After averaging 30.1 points (third-most in the NBA) to go along with 5.5 rebounds, 2.0 steals, 0.9 blocks and 6.2 assists, we should see this number go up with Giddey gone.

The advanced stats love Gilgeous-Alexander as well.

The 26-year-old actually finished above Jokić in estimated plus-minus (plus-8.8) and ranked first in the NBA in estimated wins added (20.5) per DunksandThrees. The Thunder were 10.1 points per 100 possessions better with SGA in the game (92nd percentile via Cleaning the Glass).

After finishing second in the race last year and with a loaded team around him, expect Gilgeous-Alexander to be near the top of the MVP ladder next season as well.

2023-24 MVP Finish: 3rd

After years of coming close, the stars are finally aligning for Luka Dončić to win his first MVP.

Following his Rookie of the Year award in 2018-19, he has finished in the top eight in MVP voting all five seasons, making the All-Star and All-NBA first team every year as well. His third-place MVP finish last season was the highest of his career following a monstrous campaign.

Dončić led the NBA in scoring for the first time (33.9 points per game), made a career-high 38.2 percent of his three-pointers and was just 0.8 rebounds and 0.2 assists per game away from becoming the third player in history to average a triple-double.

Leading the Dallas Mavericks to the NBA Finals improved his stock and there's a real chance the 25-year-old climbs past Nikola Jokić for the title of best player in the world this season.

Dončić's MVP chances were hurt slightly by the Mavs finishing with 50 wins compared to 57 for both Jokić's Denver Nuggets and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's Oklahoma City Thunder. Dallas should be better this season with the additions of Klay Thompson, Naji Marshall and Quentin Grimes and a full year with Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington.

Dončić has long-been one of the NBA's premier offensive threats, yet he played his best defense last season as well. The Mavs were better defensively with him on the court for the first time in his career and he had a swing rating of plus-11.9 overall (96th percentile via Cleaning the Glass).

Dončić has looked like a future MVP ever since his rookie season. Expect this to finally be his year.