B/R Guide to MLB's Final Weekend: Playoff Bracket, Stat Milestones, Storylines, More
September 27, 2024
It's just about time to say goodbye to MLB's 2024 regular season, but not before we first say hello to the final weekend of the campaign.
There's enough at stake to put a handy guide together.
The state of the postseason bracket is the first order of business. Four playoff spots and the No. 1 seed in both leagues are still up for grabs. We'll discuss who stands where and what everyone is up against in the final weekend.
Otherwise, there are various statistical milestones, a dance with baseball infamy and assorted injury storylines that will require monitoring.
What to Know About the Playoff Bracket
In case anyone has skipped directly to this part, the record should show that the season does not, in fact, end today.
If it did, though, the postseason field would look like this:
It's a good-looking field, but undecided matters include two wild-card spots in both leagues.
The Situation in the AL Wild Card Race:
- Baltimore Orioles (88-71): 3 at Minnesota Twins
- Kansas City Royals (85-74): 3 at Atlanta
- Detroit Tigers (85-74): 3 vs. Chicago White Sox
- Minnesota Twins (82-77, 3.0 GB): 3 vs. Baltimore Orioles
Pour one out for the Seattle Mariners. They were still alive in the AL wild-card race on Thursday morning, but wins by the Royals and Tigers took care of that.
Though the Orioles lead this race, it's their fault that they fell short in their quest for a second straight AL East title. They led the Yankees by 3.0 games on July 7, but they have gone 31-38 ever since.
With losses in 16 of their last 26 games, Kansas City has been trending in the opposite direction of the Tigers, who have been 14-3 since September 7. However, the Royals hold a tiebreaker over Detroit.
The Twins are skidding with a 9-15 record in September, but they hold tiebreakers on both the Royals and the Tigers if things break their way this weekend. Otherwise, the Orioles have a tiebreaker on the Royals but not the Tigers.
As a side note, what the Tigers and Royals are doing is perhaps the best argument yet for the existence of the third wild card.
The Tigers (nine years) and Royals (eight years) both came into this season mired in long playoff droughts, and neither was exactly favored to snap out of it in 2024. But without the third wild card, it's possible neither of them would be this close right now, let alone both.
The Situation in the NL Wild Card Race:
- San Diego Padres (91-68): 3 at Arizona Diamondbacks
- New York Mets (87-70): 3 at Milwaukee Brewers, 2 at Atlanta
- Arizona Diamondbacks (88-71): 3 vs. San Diego Padres
- Atlanta (86-71, 1.0 GB): 3 vs. Kansas City Royals, 2 vs. New York Mets
The upcoming doubleheader between the Mets and Atlanta on Monday has huge implications. It will decide the season series, which stands in Atlanta's favor at 6-5. That tiebreaker alone could determine who's in and who's out.
According to FanGraphs, the Mets (77.3 percent) are favored over Atlanta (64.2 percent) to ultimately get into the playoffs.
This alone highlights the reversal of fortunes that both clubs have been struck by. On May 23, for example, Atlanta was a 99.0 percent favorite to make the playoffs. On that same day, the Mets were a 14.4 percent underdog.
The Mets and Atlanta hold tiebreakers on the Diamondbacks, though only New York holds one on the Padres. The one between Arizona and San Diego is another TBD, as the season series is tied 5-5 heading into this final showdown in Phoenix.
The D-backs are another team in more trouble than it should be. As of August 27, they're 13-15 with a 5.64 team ERA in their last 18 games.
No. 1 Seeds and Home-Field Advantage in the World Series
As a reminder, the top two seeds in the AL and the NL will each receive a first-round bye. But the No. 1 seed is still important, as it will determine which team gets home-field advantage through the Championship Series.
- In the AL: New York Yankees (93-66) lead Cleveland Guardians (92-67) by 1.0 G
- In the NL: Los Angeles Dodgers (95-64) lead Philadelphia Phillies (92-65) by 1.0 G
The Yankees hold the tiebreaker in the AL, while the Phillies have it in the NL.
Otherwise, the team with the overall best record will get home-field advantage in the World Series. The Dodgers, Phillies (1.0 GB) and Yankees (2.0 GB) are the only teams that still have a shot at it.
Rapid-Fire Predictions!
So how will it all shake out?
Here's a hunch worth playing for the AL:
- Orioles maintain first wild card, No. 4 seed
- Tigers claim second wild card, No. 5 seed
- Royals settle for third wild card, No. 6 seed
And for the NL:
- Padres maintain first wild card, No. 4 seed
- Mets maintain second wild card, No. 5 seed
- Atlanta takes third wild card, No. 6 seed from Diamondbacks
Finally, the No. 1 seeds will go to the Yankees and the Phillies. The latter has an easier season-ending assignment (3 at Washington Nationals) than the Dodgers, who finish with three against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field.
What to Know About Statistical Milestones
Aaron Judge Goes for 60 HR
Two years after hitting an AL-record 62 home runs, Judge is now sitting on 58 home runs with three games left. And with homers in five straight games, it's fair to say he's hot.
If Judge can get to 60, he'll join Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire as the only players to record multiple 60-homer seasons.
It also bears noting that because Juan Soto is at 41 home runs, he and Judge could become only the sixth pair of teammates to combine for 100 homers in a season. They would notably join two Yankees pairs: Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig from 1927, and Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle from 1961.
José Ramírez Goes for 40-40
He's not going to join Ohtani in the 50-50 Club, but Ramírez already has 40 stolen bases and needs just two more home runs to reach 40 in that department.
The Guardians third baseman would thus become the seventh member of the 40-40 Club and the first to get there as a corner infielder.
Paul Skenes Goes for a Sub-2.00 ERA
A year after going to the Pirates with the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft, Skenes has a 1.99 ERA through his first 22 starts as a big leaguer. He has one more to go on Saturday against the Yankees.
If he keeps his ERA below 2.00, he'll become the first rookie starter ever to do so in the live-ball era, which goes back to 1920.
To be sure, Skenes (-270) likely already has the NL Rookie of the Year sewn up. But this would still be cool, which should count for something.
Tarik Skubal and Chris Sale Go for Triple Crowns
There have been only three seasons in which there were pitching triple-crown winners (i.e., guys who led in wins, ERA, and strikeouts) in both the AL and the NL: 1918, 1924 and 2011.
Skubal and Sale are trying to make 2024 the fourth, but they don't have it in the bag just yet.
Here's the deal with Skubal, the Tigers' ace, in the American League:
- Wins: Skubal 18, three others with 16
- ERA: Skubal 2.39, Ronel Blanco 2.88
- Strikeouts: Skubal 228, Cole Ragans 223
And here's where things stand with Sale, Atlanta's ace, in the National League:
- Wins: Sale 18, Zack Wheeler 16
- ERA: Sale 2.38, Wheeler 2.56
- Strikeouts: Sale 225, Cease 224
Skubal is safe in wins and likely in ERA, but both he and Ragans could start on Sunday if the playoff picture necessitates it. And while Cease just took a turn on Wednesday, Sale and Wheeler each have room to make one more start.
Either way, Skubal and Sale are the likely winners in the AL and NL Cy Young Award races, respectively. Wheeler and Emmanuel Clase (0.61 ERA, 47 saves) would have strong cases in virtually any other year, but not this one.
What to Know About Other Storylines
Will the White Sox Surpass the 1962 Mets?
The White Sox lost their 120th game on Sunday, tying them with the 1962 Mets for the most in modern MLB history. At the time, them claiming the record for themselves felt inevitable.
But the White Sox had a clear message to history this week: Not today.
They swept the Los Angeles Angels in a three-game set at Guaranteed Rate Field, thus staving off loss No. 121 until at least Friday.
That will mark the first of three last chances to merely stay tied with the 1962 Mets, though they'll have to do so in Detroit against a Tigers team that still has a playoff spot to earn.
What Will Be Learned About Key Injuries?
Though the Dodgers ultimately celebrated winning the NL West on Thursday night, it was shortly after Freddie Freeman had to leave the game after rolling his ankle.
X-rays were negative and Freeman says the Dodgers are "pretty optimistic" that he'll be good to go in time for Game 1 of the NLDS next Saturday. Fingers should be crossed, however.
As for the Mets, Star shortstop Francisco Lindor had been set to return to the lineup on Wednesday before inclement weather moved into the Atlanta area. That will now happen on Friday in Milwaukee, marking his first start since a back issue forced him out of a game against the Phillies on Sep. 15.
Naturally, the hope is Lindor's back stays quiet and allows him to be the impact player he was before. He was leading even Ohtani in fWAR when he got hurt.
Meanwhile, Orioles righty Grayson Rodriguez (lat strain) is done for the year and Yankees lefty Nestor Cortes (flexor strain) will miss at least the rest of the regular season.
The fates of Mets righty Kodai Senga (triceps tightness) and Dodgers icon Clayton Kershaw (bone spur in toe) are otherwise unknown for now. Both could be in play for the postseason, but it shouldn't be guaranteed until their statuses are updated accordingly.
Also hoping for good news are the AL West champion Houston Astros on slugger Yordan Alvarez. His sprained right knee will keep him out of action this weekend. As for the playoffs, well, "Who knows?" is the operative question at the moment.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
