Week 5 NFL Odds: Early Locks and Best Bets on the Schedule

We're roughly a quarter of the way through the 2024 NFL season, and things finally seemed to settle during Week 4.

There were some surprises over the weekend—The Indianapolis Colts handled the previously undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers with Joe Flacco under center—but we didn't see as many shockers as we did during the first three weeks.

The Cincinnati Bengals finally got into the win column, while the Baltimore Ravens finally looked like the title contenders most expected them to be.

None of this means that predicting outcomes in Week 5 will be particularly easy. However, the early odds have created a few advantageous opportunities.

*Lines via DraftKings Sportsbook

It's essentially a pick-em between the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans, who both sport a 3-1 record. While Houston will have home-field advantage, Buffalo has an excellent chance of stealing this one on the road.

The Bills were embarrassed by the Ravens on Sunday night, largely because their defense couldn't slow Derrick Henry and Baltimore's ground attack. Henry rumbled for 199 rushing yards, while the Ravens racked up 271 yards on the ground.

The Texans, who have been without Joe Mixon (ankle) the last two weeks, don't present the same rushing threat. Even if Mixon is healthy, Houston is likely to lean heavily on C.J. Stroud and the passing game.

Houston's run defense, which has surrendered 4.7 yards per carry this season, could also be a liability in this matchup. Buffalo got nothing going on the ground against Baltimore, but between James Cook, Ty Johnson and the scrambling of Josh Allen, it has the pieces to exploit the Texans' defense.

The Texans haven't played as well as their record might suggest, while the Bills are better than what they showed on Sunday night. This should be a tight one, but Buffalo should be able to right the proverbial ship.

The Bengals earned a 34-24 road victory over the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, but the game was more of a struggle than the final score might suggest. Cincinnati surrendered 375 yards of offense and allowed Carolina to stay in the game until the very end.

"There was really no other option other than to figure out a way to win this game," Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow said, per ESPN's Ben Baby.

The Bengals are no longer winless, but they have serious defensive issues. They've allowed an average of 4.4 yards per carry, 6.1 net yards per pass attempt and 26 points per game.

While Cincinnati has typically performed well against the rival Ravens, it isn't constructed to contain Baltimore's new-look rushing attack. The Ravens defense isn't as stout as it was a year ago, but Baltimore should be able to control the tempo by leaning on Henry and Co.

This will place pressure on Burrow to maximize every possession, and that could be a problem for the Bengals. Cincinnati's offensive line is still suspect, while the Ravens can get after opposing quarterbacks (13 sacks) and take away the run game (3.0 yards per carry allowed).

The Ravens aren't heavy favorites here and should walk out with a field-goal victory—as they did in Cincinnati early last season.

The Green Bay Packers couldn't complete a comeback against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 4, but they came close. Green Bay got into an early hole thanks to some inconsistent defense and some early mistakes by quarterback Jordan Love.

Love, who missed the previous two games with an MCL sprain, wasn't himself at the start of the game and threw a pair of early interceptions (three total) that gave Minnesota all the momentum. Once he settled in, though, he was spectacular.

The 25-year-old finished with 389 passing yards and four touchdowns, and he helped turn a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit into a two-point loss.

Love should be sharper and healthier in Week 5, and there's no guarantee that the Los Angeles Rams can do the same. Injuries have blunted what was a very potent squad in 2023, and miscues cost the Rams in a close Week 4 loss to the Chicago Bears.

Los Angeles will be back home for this one, but it may have a lot of focus on simply getting to its Week 6 bye without further injuries.

Expect Green Bay's late Week 4 momentum to spark a fast start against the Rams and for the Packers to come away with a touchdown victory.

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