Bleacher Report's Week 5 NFL Picks

A new month can change your fortune. That's how Bleacher Report's betting crew will approach October after a rough September.

B/R's NFL expert panel, which includes analysts Brad Gagnon, Gary Davenport, Brent Sobleski and Maurice Moton along with editors Wes O'Donnell and Ian Hanford and Vince Michelino from B/R Betting Strategy, took steps in the right direction, going over .500 with their consensus picks for Week 4.

But they're not satisfied with barely going over the even mark. Our panel expects to take leaps and bounds this month, starting with the Week 5 slate.

Davenport brought his pet squid, and our crew is ready to go green for October.

Check out our panelists' records below. Last week's results are in parentheses.

ATS Standings

T-1. Knox: 30-30-4 (11-4-1)

T-1. Michelino: 30-30-4 (6-9-1)

3. O'Donnell: 29-31-4 (10-5-1)

4. Hanford: 28-32-4 (8-7-1)

5. Moton: 27-33-4 (7-8-1)

T-6. Davenport: 26-34-4 (2-13-1)

T-6. Gagnon: 26-34-4 (8-7-1)

T-6. Sobleski: 26-34-4 (9-6-1)

Consensus picks: 23-29-2 (7-6-1)

Lines are from DraftKings as of Wednesday, Oct. 2, at 4 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.

DraftKings Line: Atlanta -1.5

In Week 4, the Atlanta Falcons narrowly edged the New Orleans Saints in a 26-24 victory, thanks to Younghoe Koo's game-winning field goal.

The Falcons will face another division rival on Thursday. This time as a host. Atlanta hasn't covered the spread in any of its three home games.

Our panel overwhelmingly sided with the slight road favorite. Knox took the Buccaneers because they've quickly established chemistry under new play-caller Liam Coen, while the Falcons have scored just five offensive touchdowns in four games.

"Logically, the Falcons make the most sense here," Knox said. "They're at home, they're on a short week, and their ground game should give them an edge against a bad Buccaneers run defense. However, logic doesn't always matter when divisional matchups are involved.

"I fully expect a sloppy game because, well, it's Thursday. In what very well could be a slog, I'll back the team with more established chemistry and more big-play potential. Right now, that's Tampa. I expect the Bucs to embrace the underdog role—something they continue to do, even after last year's playoff run and a 3-1 start—and come out swinging."

Predictions

Davenport: Buccaneers

Gagnon: Falcons

Hanford: Buccaneers

Knox: Buccaneers

Michelino: Buccaneers

Moton: Buccaneers

O'Donnell: Buccaneers

Sobleski: Buccaneers

ATS Consensus: Buccaneers +1.5

Score Prediction: Buccaneers 23, Falcons 20

DK Line: Minnesota -2.5

The Minnesota Vikings are listed as the home team for this matchup, but they'll go on the road with the New York Jets to London for a game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

The Jets come into this game frustrated with their 10-9 home loss to the Denver Broncos.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers disagreed with head coach Robert Saleh about his cadence at the line of scrimmage. During an appearance on ESPN's Bart & Hahn Show, wide receiver Garrett Wilson criticized the lack of creativity in the Jets offense.

"I don't think we do a lot of different stuff, to be honest. I watch football on Sundays, and I see a lot of teams mix it up and stuff like that. I don't think we do that. I think we know our identity. It's just about going out and executing it or figuring out if it's going to work. I don't think we're trying a lot of different things."

A bickering Jets team has to pull it together across the pond against an undefeated Vikings squad with the fourth-ranked scoring offense and defense.

Michelino sided with Minnesota to remain undefeated and cover.

"We're finally treated to the Sam Darnold Revenge Game we've all been waiting for!" Michelino exclaimed. "OK, maybe it's lost some luster since it's being played across the pond, but it's felt inevitable for quite some time and, oh my, have the tables turned.

"Darnold doesn't just look like a front-runner for Comeback Player of the Year; he looks like a legitimate MVP candidate through four weeks, leading the Vikings to a perfect 4-0 start (4-0 ATS as well) and leading the league with 11 TD passes. The Vikings also rank first in total DVOA, proving they deserve to rank among the best teams in the NFC.

"Meanwhile, vibes couldn't be worse for the Jets coming off a devastating loss where seemingly everything went wrong. The entire offense looked out of whack and Rodgers took a beating. There's also already brewing tensions between he and HC Robert Saleh…not great.

"While Rodgers has had a ton of success against Minnesota dating back to his days in Green Bay, these aren't your father's Vikings. Nope. They're Sam Darnold's Vikings (!!!!), and I believe they're destined to cover again."

Predictions

Davenport: Vikings

Gagnon: Jets

Hanford: Vikings

Knox: Vikings

Michelino: Vikings

Moton: Vikings

O'Donnell: Vikings

Sobleski: Vikings

ATS Consensus: Vikings -2.5

Score Prediction: Vikings 21, Jets 17

DK Line: Washington -3.5

The Washington Commanders may be the NFL's hottest team right now. They've won three straight, covering the spread in all those games.

Conversely, the Cleveland Browns have lost three consecutive contests, and they're 1-3 ATS.

Oddsmakers are tempting bettors with the hook in this spot, though our crew still took the Commanders to cover at home.

Sobleski believes the Commanders defense will create chaos for the Browns' battered offensive line as Jayden Daniels continues to play at an impressive level.

"The Commanders have the league's most aggressive defense, and they are going to make life uncomfortable for a Browns offense dealing with injuries. Dan Quinn's D blitzes more on third down than any other team in the league, according to StatMuse.

"Maybe Cleveland gets Nick Chubb back this week, but there's no guarantee he'll immediately be the same player he was prior to injury. Conversely, the Commanders are clicking on offense right now, and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels will get the ball out quickly and efficiently."

Predictions

Davenport: Commanders

Gagnon: Browns

Hanford: Commanders

Knox: Commanders

Michelino: Browns

Moton: Commanders

O'Donnell: Commanders

Sobleski: Commanders

ATS Consensus: Commanders -3.5

Score Prediction: Commanders 24, Browns 20

DK Line: Chicago -3.5

At the beginning of the year, this matchup projected to be a battle between the last two No. 1 overall picks. Remember, the Chicago Bears traded the top 2023 selection to the Carolina Panthers, who took Bryce Young. In return, the Bears recouped the Panthers' 2024 first-rounder and used it to draft Caleb Williams.

However, the Panthers benched Young after two games and saw an offensive spark with 14-year veteran Andy Dalton under center. Carolina scored 13 points in its first two games and 60 points over the last two weeks.

The Bears have also shown progress under Williams, though they won with their ground game last week, rushing for 131 yards in a 24-18 win over the Los Angeles Rams.

Knox tipped the panel's consensus toward Chicago. He trusts the Bears defense to slow down a resurgent Panthers offense.

"This one's tricky because the Panthers continue to look like a real NFL team with Andy Dalton under center. They didn't make things easy on the Bengals in Week 4, though I suspect that's a reflection of Cincinnati's ongoing defensive deficiencies. Carolina's defense (23rd in yards per carry allowed, 27th in net yards per pass attempt allowed and 32nd in points allowed) is even worse.

"Chicago's defense might not be elite, but it's full of playmakers who can make life miserable for Dalton. With Caleb Williams continuing to show progress—and the Bears finally figuring out how to spark their ground game—I think the Bears can record their most decisive win of the season so far."

Predictions

Davenport: Panthers

Gagnon: Bears

Hanford: Bears

Knox: Bears

Michelino: Panthers

Moton: Bears

O'Donnell: Bears

Sobleski: Bears

ATS Consensus: Bears -3.5

Score Prediction: Bears 26, Panthers 20

DK Line: Baltimore -2.5

After an 0-2 start, the Baltimore Ravens look like Super Bowl contenders again. At home, they squashed the Buffalo Bills 35-10.

The Bills struggled to stop the Ravens' ground attack with injuries in the middle of their defense. The Cincinnati Bengals could face a similar issue with defensive tackles B.J. Hill and Sheldon Rankins nursing hamstring injuries.

Cincinnati ranks 25th against the run, so most of our panelists expect Derrick Henry to have another near-200-yard rushing performance.

Davenport took the Ravens with conviction.

"Given my Week 4, a rummed-up, blindfolded, dart-throwing squid could probably give better advice than me, But the stupid squid won't wear the blindfold or drink the rum—so here goes," Davenport quipped.

"The Bengals got win No. 1 of the season last week, but Cincinnati's defense continues to be a question mark—Cincy is 25th against the run, allowing over 145 yards per game. Baltimore's ground game is becoming what many expected—a nightmare for opponents.

"One of the best ways for the Ravens to disguise their deficiencies in the secondary is to control the flow of games. There won't be a letdown in a divisional game, and we just saw these Ravens mollywhop the undefeated Bills. Laying less than a field goal, even on the road? Even Squidmuel L. Jackson can't argue with that.

"What? I named him. Don't judge me."

Gagnon entered the discussion with the idea that the Bengals could pull off an upset while still operating in desperation mode.

"The Ravens are riding a nice wave right now, but we've learned that nobody can get too high in 2024, and the talented and resilient Bengals need this a lot more. At home, they'll at least keep this close. Buy up to plus three to be safe, but I'm expecting Cincinnati to find a way in a critical spot."

Predictions

Davenport: Ravens

Gagnon: Bengals

Hanford: Ravens

Knox: Ravens

Michelino: Bengals

Moton: Ravens

O'Donnell: Ravens

Sobleski: Ravens

ATS Consensus: Ravens -2.5

Score Prediction: Ravens 30, Bengals 26

DK Line: Houston -1

The Buffalo Bills will look to rebound from a lopsided 35-10 loss to the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night, but they face a tough task on the road against another playoff-caliber squad.

The Houston Texans laid an egg in a 34-7 loss to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3 and bounced back against the winless Jacksonville Jaguars last week.

Most of our crew picked Buffalo to shake off a bad loss and win a pick 'em Stefon Diggs revenge game. O'Donnell leaned on the numbers to back the Bills.

"This is essentially a pick 'em and that means we've got some history on our side. Since Josh Allen entered the league in 2018, only the reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs have a better record coming off a loss. And since the 2020 season, the Bills are 14-4 coming off a loss.

"In the, albeit short, C.J. Stroud era, the Texans are 2-4-1 as home favorites against the spread and only 5-7-1 ATS off a win. That's a lot of numbers, I know, so let's talk football. The Texans are winning, and that's what matters, but they don't look great right now.

"The Bills were humbled by Baltimore a week ago (which was accurately predicted by only one panelist on this crew, guess who) and will have taken that to heart. This should be a bloodydamn good football game, and I'll take the point while fully expecting an outright Buffalo win. That's right. The wagons have been circled, the Bills have shown me what I needed to see, and I'm firmly tethered back onto this team forever and a day."

Predictions

Davenport: Bills

Gagnon: Bills

Hanford: Bills

Knox: Bills

Michelino: Texans

Moton: Bills

O'Donnell: Bills

Sobleski: Texans

ATS Consensus: Bills +1

Score Prediction: Bills 28, Texans 24

DK Line: Jacksonville -2.5

As the only winless team in the NFL, the Jacksonville Jaguars should be underdogs, right? Well, that's not the case, though the odds make sense.

The Jaguars have beaten the Indianapolis Colts in nine consecutive outings in Jacksonville.

In addition, the Colts may be without star running back Jonathan Taylor, who has a high ankle sprain.

Our experts think Jacksonville is in a good spot to win its first game of the season. Sobleski favors a team in dire straits.

"The level of desperation in Jacksonville is palpable," Sobleski said. "Owner Shad Khan didn't mince words when he said 'winning now' is the expectation for this season. Welp, the Jaguars are the league's only team with an 0-4 record.

"Meanwhile, the Colts can't win in Jacksonville. They haven't done so since Barack Obama's second term in office. That's right. It's been 10 years since Indianapolis found a way to win at EverBank Stadium. Something has to give. The Jaguars simply need this game more."

Predictions

Davenport: Jaguars

Gagnon: Jaguars

Hanford: Colts

Knox: Jaguars

Michelino: Colts

Moton: Jaguars

O'Donnell: Jaguars

Sobleski: Jaguars

ATS Consensus: Jaguars -2.5

Score Prediction: Jaguars 24, Colts 21

DK Line: New England -1

Since quarterback Tua Tagovailoa suffered a concussion in Week 2 against the Buffalo Bills, the Miami Dolphins have scored just one touchdown, Tyler Huntley's one-yard run for a score on Monday.

Following a 31-12 loss to the Tennessee Titans, head coach Mike McDaniel told reporters that "everything is on the table" regarding potential changes, but how much can he do with a team on its third-string quarterback?

Moton doesn't see how the Dolphins score enough points to win, even in a low-scoring matchup.

"In a game between low-scoring teams, take the club with the better defense to give the offense good field position," Moton said.

"The Patriots haven't signaled a switch from journeyman quarterback Jacoby Brissett to rookie Drake Maye yet, so New England has a veteran savvy signal-caller who can protect the ball and make smart decisions.

"Moreover, the Patriots rushed for 355 yards in the first two weeks of the season. They'll get their 12th-ranked ground attack back on track with either Rhamondre Stevenson or Antonio Gibson against a defense that just gave up 142 rushing yards on Monday."

Predictions

Davenport: Dolphins

Gagnon: Patriots

Hanford: Patriots

Knox: Patriots

Michelino: Patriots

Moton: Patriots

O'Donnell: Patriots

Sobleski: Patriots

ATS Consensus: Patriots -1

Score Prediction: Patriots 17, Dolphins 12

DK Line: San Francisco -7.5

The San Francisco 49ers flexed their muscle and benched-pressed the New England Patriots in a 30-13 victory.

Despite key injuries on the offensive side of the ball, the 49ers proved that they can still score in flurries, but is it sustainable? Tight end George Kittle suffered a rib injury in the win over New England.

Gagnon doesn't think so. He spoke on behalf of the majority who picked the Cardinals.

"Against a dangerous divisional opponent, I'm not laying more than seven points with a 49ers team that is far too short-handed to be trusted right now. I won't be fooled by San Francisco's easy victory over the horrible Patriots, and they're in even worse shape now than they were heading into that game."

Davenport, with his trusty squid, pushed against the consensus with the thought that the dominant 49ers are back to embarrassing lesser opponents.

"This is where the squid started giving me the side-eye," Davenport joked. "Any spread over seven points is a red flag. But I fell for the old 'take the points' trick last week. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, and I'll mail you the squid.

"Two of Arizona's last three offensive performances were, um, bad—including just 14 points last week against a shaky Washington defense.

"Meanwhile, last week the 49ers looked like the defending NFC champions in dismantling the Patriots, and the San Francisco offense appears to be compensating for the absence of Christian McCaffrey with the emergence of Jauan Jennings.

"Seattle's loss in Detroit Monday night gives the Niners an opportunity to ramp up the pressure in the NFC West. They will—and win by three scores.

"Stick that in your tentacles, Squid-boy."

Predictions

Davenport: 49ers

Gagnon: Cardinals

Hanford: Cardinals

Knox: 49ers

Michelino: Cardinals

Moton: Cardinals

O'Donnell: Cardinals

Sobleski: Cardinals

ATS Consensus: Cardinals +7.5

Score Prediction: 49ers 27, Cardinals 21

DK Line: Denver -2.5

In addition to a division matchup with the Denver Broncos, the Las Vegas Raiders have to sort through matters with star wideout Davante Adams, who, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, "prefers" to play elsewhere.

Adams also has a hamstring injury that sidelined him for the previous game.

Still, the Raiders beat the Cleveland Browns in Week 4, and they have an eight-game winning streak over the Broncos.

Moton believes the surging Broncos, who have won consecutive road games, will snap their losing streak to the Silver and Black.

"Division rival winning streaks have to end at some point, right?" Moton asked.

"The Broncos have put together consecutive road wins in back-to-back weeks, throttling the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26-7 and stifling the New York Jets 10-9.

"The Broncos will hold the Raiders to fewer than 20 points and find a way to run the ball on a unit that's struggled to stop ground attacks. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix, who's second on the team in rushing yards, makes the difference with his legs in this game, scoring at least one rushing touchdown."

Predictions

Davenport: Raiders

Gagnon: Broncos

Hanford: Raiders

Knox: Raiders

Michelino: Broncos

Moton: Broncos

O'Donnell: Broncos

Sobleski: Broncos

ATS Consensus: Broncos -2.5

Score Prediction: Broncos 20, Raiders 17

DK Line: Green Bay -3.5

In Week 4, Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love returned to action and lost to the Minnesota Vikings in a high-scoring duel with Sam Darnold.

Nonetheless, our crew is encouraged by Love's performance. He threw for 389 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions.

Our panel sided with the Packers. Moton thinks Love will play a cleaner game, avoid turnovers and lead his team to a blowout victory over the Los Angeles Rams.

"The oddsmakers gave us all a gift with this 3.5-point line," Moton snickered.

"The Rams pass defense is nearly as bad as the Vikings unit, and without wideouts Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, they don't have the offensive firepower to keep pace with Love and Co.

"Green Bay won't have starting wideout Christian Watson, but Dontayvion Wicks is also efficient with his opportunities. He scored on two of his five receptions last week. The Packers will steamroll the Rams in a double-digit road victory."

Predictions

Davenport: Packers

Gagnon: Packers

Hanford: Packers

Knox: Packers

Michelino: Rams

Moton: Packers

O'Donnell: Packers

Sobleski: Rams

ATS Consensus: Packers -3.5

Score Prediction: Packers 34, Rams 17

DK Line: Seattle -6.5

The Seattle Seahawks missed an opportunity to win in a statement game that may have vaulted them in the NFC hierarchy, though their offense looked impressive in a 42-29 loss to the Detroit Lions.

The Seahawks had the most first downs (38) of any losing team in NFL history. While that consolation achievement doesn't make any difference in the standings, it gave our experts the confidence to side with a favorite on a spread larger than six points, which is a risky bet so far this season.

Then again, the New York Giants may play this game without sensational rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers, who's in concussion protocol.

O'Donnell also recalls a recent history of the Seahawks crushing Big Blue head-to-head.

"While Seattle's first defeat of the season at the hands of Detroit didn't look good, the Seahawks are a bad matchup for a semi-plucky(?) Giants team. There are a number of issues facing Big Blue here. The Seahawks have scored 23 or more points in every game this season. The Giants haven't scored 23 points in a single game this season. New York cannot run the football effectively.

"Seattle is pacing the league in passing yards per game and Geno Smith is second in completion percentage. Shane Bowen's defense, even if they can corral Kenneth Walker III on the ground, is going to struggle against DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Seattle's pass-catching backs. The Seahawks have played the Giants each of the past two seasons and beaten them by an average of 17.5 points. Why isn't this line bigger?"

Predictions

Davenport: Seahawks

Gagnon: Giants

Hanford: Seahawks

Knox: Seahawks

Michelino: Giants

Moton: Seahawks

O'Donnell: Seahawks

Sobleski: Seahawks

ATS Consensus: Seahawks -6.5

Score Prediction: Seahawks 27, Giants 16

DK Line: Pittsburgh -2.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers will continue to start Justin Fields over Russell Wilson, which isn't a surprising development.

Despite a 27-24 loss to the Indianapolis Colts last week, Fields had his best outing of the season, throwing for 312 yards and a touchdown and rushing for 55 yards with a couple of scores.

Our panel split even on this game. Hanford likes Fields and the Steelers' matchup against the Dallas Cowboys' banged-up defense.

"On one hand, you'd be hard-pressed to find a unit more banged up than the Steelers' OL right now," Hanford said. "But on the other hand, the Cowboys aren't exactly in a position to take advantage of it with Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence both on the shelf with their own injuries.

"The Steelers run game hasn't been overwhelming by any stretch despite the move to Arthur Smith's scheme, but it sounds like Jaylen Warren could be set to return and provide a boost against a Cowboys defense that has surrendered the sixth-most rushing yards this season.

"Add Justin Fields' legs to the equation, and I like Pittsburgh's offense to make just enough plays to support a defense with something to prove after last week's loss to earn a three-point win at home."

Predictions

Davenport: Cowboys

Gagnon: Cowboys

Hanford: Steelers

Knox: Steelers

Michelino: Cowboys

Moton: Steelers

O'Donnell: Steelers

Sobleski: Cowboys

ATS Consensus: None

Score Prediction: Steelers 24, Cowboys 21

DK Line: Kansas City -5

In September, the Kansas City Chiefs lost running back Isiah Pacheco (fractured fibula) and wide receiver Rashee Rice (knee) to significant injuries. Yet they're still 4-0 with victories by margins of seven points or fewer.

On the fly, the Chiefs have adjusted well, and Hanford isn't going to bet against them in this spot. He expressed his faith in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense covering against the New Orleans Saints while taking a slight dig at Derek Carr's poor record at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

"It would be easy to pick against the Chiefs this week with their offense devastated by injuries, but they still have a strong defense and a guy named Patrick Mahomes. Not to mention, the quarterback (Derek Carr) on the other side in New Orleans is 1-8 in his career at Arrowhead Stadium.

"The Saints started strong this year but have come back to earth in the past two weeks. Things don't get easier in a hostile road game. Injuries could eventually slow the Chiefs down, but we're going to wait at least one week to see it as Kansas City wins this one by a touchdown."

Predictions

Davenport: Saints

Gagnon: Saints

Hanford: Chiefs

Knox: Saints

Michelino: Saints

Moton: Saints

O'Donnell: Chiefs

Sobleski: Saints

ATS Consensus: Saints +5

Score Prediction: Chiefs 23, Saints 20

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), or call or text the TN REDLINE: 800-889-9789 (TN).

21+. NJ/PA/WV/IN/IA/CO/IL/TN only. In partnership with Meadows Racetrack & Casino. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.