Every NBA Team's Top Breakout Prospect, Ranked

Who will step forward this season as the next generation of star players?

LeBron James may not have declined much over two decades of play, but an unfortunate truth about NBA basketball is that it's primarily a young man's game. As All-Stars fade, the league replenishes its pool with college, international and other prospects.

Some get time in the G League to develop; others are lucky enough to get important NBA rotation minutes.

The following is a list of each team's top breakout prospect, ranked in descending order:

Whether it's No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher or No. 55 Bronny James Jr., all rookies are technically prospects. Very few step on the court looking like seasoned veterans—like last year's unicorn/Rookie of the Year Victor award winner Victor Wembanyama.

Predicting the top rookies is a different list; they are all prospects in a sense, but with nothing tangible to go on but pre-NBA experience, they have been omitted entirely. Instead, to be considered here, a player must have 1-3 years of service—anything more will be considered a veteran.

The age requirement will be below 25 to exclude international players new to the NBA, like 30-year-old Serbian guard Vasilije Micić (entering his second year with the Charlotte Hornets).

Any players with 4,500 minutes or more were also left off, regardless of age or seasons in the league. So, too, were young players like Nikola Jović (Miami Heat), who averaged over 20 minutes per game in a postseason—for our purposes, he's already a veteran.

To identify breakout prospects, if the player received votes last year for the most improved or won Rookie of the Year (Wembanyama), they were already noticed and are off the list.

Contract: Two-way
Projected role: Marginal
Breakout heat (1-10, 10 highest): 1

The Suns are a veteran team with championship aspirations. The franchise hasn't recently relied on young talent, though that shifts with the acquisition of Ryan Dunn (and Oso Ighodaro) in the draft.

Dunn may earn rotation minutes, but with rookies excluded, Washington is almost the only player who meets the "prospect" criteria. What he has to offer will primarily be in the G League with the Valley Suns.

Other candidate(s): Collin Gillespie

Contract: Two-way
Projected role: Marginal
Breakout heat: 1

The Knicks also don't have a prospect under standard contract with Jericho Sims (25) and Miles McBride (playoff minutes) outside the qualifying range. Tyler Kolek was one of the better shot-creators in college last season, but no rookies.

It'll be up to Toppin to break out with the Westchester Knicks enough to get some time with the NBA Knicks.

Other candidate(s): Chuma Okeke (if he makes the team off a training camp contract)

Contract: Two-way
Projected role: Marginal
Breakout heat: 2

Smith started earning time in the Heat's rotation before he hurt his knee. Back on a two-way contract, hopefully, he can show he's well past the injury.

Miami doesn't have anyone else on a standard contract who fits the criteria, with Jaime Jaquez Jr. quickly establishing himself as an NBA vet through his rookie campaign. Jović also got steady playoff minutes.

Other candidate(s): Josh Christopher

Contract: $1.9 million for 2024-25 (second of three years, $2.1 million remaining guaranteed)
Projected role: End of rotation
Breakout heat: 3

Be it age or experience, the Celtics have few prospects (Neemias Queta is 25), but Walsh, a rangy defensive wing, has an interesting skill set. Boston brought him on last year with the No. 38 pick (via a series of trades), but he only got 83 minutes of court time as a rookie.

His minutes could grow if the Celtics try to ease Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum's minutes to prepare for the postseason.

Other candidate(s): Jaden Springer

Contract: Two-way
Projected role: End of rotation
Breakout heat: 4

The Clippers let Paul George walk via free agency to the Philadelphia 76ers, but Kawhi Leonard isn't healthy enough for the preseason. There's a possibility the Clippers have a down season and put more time into developing younger players.

That could benefit Miller, who popped in summer league as a scorer.

Other candidate(s): Kobe Brown

Contract: $3.5 million (third of four years, $8.9 million guaranteed)
Projected role: End of rotation
Breakout heat: 4

The Bulls seem to be pivoting to young players, trading DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso, but they're not tanking. That shift could give Terry more of an opportunity to play, though he needs to earn that time.

Josh Giddey has too many minutes to qualify. Chris Duarte has only three years of service but is already 27.

Other candidate(s): Julian Phillips

Contract: $1.9 million (second of four years, $0 guaranteed)
Projected role: End of rotation
Breakout heat: 4

Council wasn't an integral part of the Sixers' rotation last year, but he made 32 appearances and averaged 5.4 points a game in 9.0 minutes of play. This year's issue for Council may be opportunity, as the Sixers brought in several players via free agency.

Council may prove too low on this list if he can get minutes.

Other candidate(s): Lester Quinones

Contract: $2.0 million (third of four years, $2.0 guaranteed)
Projected role: Near end of rotation; more if he can earn it
Breakout heat: 5

Going by the Timberwolves' preseason game against the Los Angeles Lakers, Josh Minott looked like a player determined to steal minutes from his more experienced teammates. The 21-year-old wing was acquired through trade by Minnesota in the 2022 draft (No. 45) and may be ready to break out if given the chance.

Others, like Luka Garza, are just a little too old to qualify. Keep an eye on rookie Rob Dillingham as a top-five pick.

Other candidate(s): Leonard Miller

Contract: $1.9 million (second of four years, about $946,000 guaranteed)
Projected role: Near end of rotation
Breakout heat: 5

The Bucks have a heavy payroll and an aging roster. They need younger players to break through to support Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard. With Khris Middleton struggling to stay healthy, Jackson may be able to carve out an opportunity—though recently signed veterans Taurean Prince and Gary Trent Jr. may eat up some of his potential minutes.

Other candidates: Chris Livingston, MarJon Beauchamp, AJ Green

Contract: $4.5 million (second of four years, $9.3 million guaranteed)
Projected role: Potential rotation regular
Breakout heat: 6

Hawkins earned significant opportunity as a rookie, playing 17.3 minutes a game in 67 appearances. With more experience, he hopes to improve upon his 36.6 percent from three-point range.

One concern is that Hawkins didn't have a strong summer league in July. Perhaps he's better as a floor spacer in a system with established players. Teammates Jose Alvarado, Herbert Jones and Trey Murphy III have already earned veteran status.

Other candidate(s): Jamal Cain

Contract: $1.9 million (second of three years, $75,000 guaranteed)
Projected role: Rotation
Breakout heat: 7

Brooklyn is rebuilding, but it's unclear what form that will take. Wilson may leap up the list to one of the top slots if the Nets actively tank at the start of the season. He showed maturity and growth in summer league, earning MVP in Las Vegas.

Wilson is a sleeper pick. Cam Thomas doesn't qualify after placing No. 7 on last year's Most Improved Player voting.

Other candidates: Day'Ron Sharpe, Noah Clowney, Dariq Whitehead

Contract: $7.6 million (second of four years, $15.6 million guaranteed)
Projected role: Rotation
Breakout heat: 7

Black played a regular role in the rotation until the playoffs. The Magic have high hopes for the 2023 No. 6 pick, but will that translate into significant minutes this year? Perhaps it will with Markelle Fultz gone, but even though veteran Kentavious Caldwell-Pope doesn't play the point, he may eat up some of Black's backcourt opportunities.

Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs are already proven veterans with over 33 playoff minutes per game apiece.

Other candidates: Caleb Houstan

Contract: $2.0 million (third of three years, $2.0 million guaranteed)
Projected role: Rotation
Breakout heat: 7

A preseason injury to Dante Exum (wrist) should open up minutes for Hardy, who played a regular 13.5 minutes per game last year (73 games). At times, he showed he could be an impact player for the Mavericks.

The Mavericks have significant ball-handling talent with Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving. Hardy will compete with veteran Spencer Dinwiddie for minutes but still may carve out a role this season.

Dereck Lively II earned enough playoff minutes to be excluded from consideration for this list.

Other candidates: Olivier-Maxence Prosper

Contract: $1.9 million (second of four years, $1.0 million guaranteed)
Projected role: Rotation
Breakout heat: 7

Porter was a rotation player for the Cavaliers last year, though an ankle injury set him back. He played 12.7 minutes a game in 51 appearances, adding some athleticism as a backup point. Porter needs to improve as a shooter but should round out the guard rotation this season in Cleveland.

Other candidates: JT Thor

Contract: $4.8 million (second of four years, $4.8 million guaranteed)
Projected role: Rotation
Breakout heat: 7

The Raptors are sure to pick up Dick's third-year rookie-scale option ($5.0 million) before the season. The team is desperate for shooting, and Dick should get ample opportunity to blossom in Toronto this year. He already played 21.1 minutes a game last year, shooting 36.5 percent from three-point range—both numbers that should trend higher.

Scottie Barnes is already established. Davion Mitchell is 26.

Other candidates: Ochai Agbaji

Contract: $2.1 million (second of four years, $4.4 million guaranteed)
Projected role: Rotation
Breakout heat: 7

The Grizzlies need defense around players like Ja Morant and Desmond Bane. Williams has the toughness to challenge bigger scorers. He was a bright spot last year in what was a lost season.

The Memphis rotation is difficult to peg with a three-guard lineup (Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and Marcus Smart). Others who may break through include Jake LaRavia and Santi Aldama. LaRavia took on a scoring role late last year, and Brandon Clarke's return may impact Aldama's minutes.

Someone may break out in Memphis; it's tricky to say which one.

Other candidates: Jake LaRavia, Santi Aldama

Contract: $2.1 million (second of three years, $0 guaranteed)
Projected role: Rotation
Breakout heat: 7

The Kings have found a defensive role player in Ellis. He's tough, physical and will fight for regular minutes. Last year, he played 57 games (17.2 minutes per game), shooting 41.7 percent from three-point range on relatively light volume (2.9 attempts).

The more significant question is opportunity, with DeMar DeRozan joining the team and Kevin Huerter returning from a shoulder injury.

Keegan Murray doesn't qualify by playoff minutes from the 2022-23 campaign.

Other candidates: Colby Jones

Contract: $7.1 million (first of four years, $32 million guaranteed—including player option on final season)
Projected role: Rotation
Breakout heat: 8

While others lower on this list may have a higher upside than Christie, the third-year guard will benefit from opportunity. The Lakers have prioritized him in their rotation, and he'll get to play heavy, steady minutes. L.A. is banking on his perimeter defense and outside shooting as complementary to LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Austin Reaves.

Other candidates: Jalen Hood-Schifino

Contract: $5.6 million (second of four years, $5.6 million guaranteed)
Projected role: Rotation
Breakout heat: 8

The Josh Giddey trade (to the Chicago Bulls) could open minutes for Wallace—though Alex Caruso will take some as well. The Thunder may have the best team in the Western Conference, and Wallace is an integral part of that as a defender who can shoot the three. He hit 41.9 percent as a rookie (on 2.9 attempts), but that may increase.

Wallace barely qualifies after playing 19.8 minutes per game in the Thunder's playoff run. Jalen Williams is already a standout. Aaron Wiggins is already 25.

Other candidates: Jaylin Williams

Contract: $3.1 million (third of four years, $3.1 million guaranteed)
Projected role: Starter
Breakout heat: 8

Braun is the first projected starter on the list. As a rookie, he was important to the Nuggets' 2022-23 championship run, though he only averaged 13 minutes a game. Braun is higher on the list because he seems like the obvious Caldwell-Pope replacement in Denver's opening lineup.

He plays hard and fits well with Nikola Jokić, but he needs to improve as a volume shooter.

Other candidates: Peyton Watson, Julian Strawther

Contract: $3.5 million (second of four years, $3.5 million guaranteed)
Projected role: Rotation
Breakout heat: 8

The Warriors are evolving with Klay Thompson on the Dallas Mavericks. Heading into the regular season, it looks like De'Anthony Melton will start alongside Steph Curry at guard, keeping Podziemski as a spark of the bench. Podziemski will climb the list if coach Steve Kerr moves him into the starting rotation.

Podziemski, who will have his $3.7 million option picked up before the season, averaged 9.2 points and 3.7 assists per game while shooting 38.5 percent from three. That's a tremendous starting point, but will his big jump be this year or next?

Kuminga has eclipsed the 4,500-minute barrier.

Other candidates: Trayce Jackson-Davis

Contract: $6.9 million (second of four years, $6.9 million guaranteed)
Projected role: Starter
Breakout heat: 8

Coulibaly is still very young but will have ample opportunity to grow in Washington. The Wizards are rebuilding, though they'll start the season with an eclectic set of veterans who will help carry some of the workload. The team won't win a ton, but Coulibaly will gradually shine. Washington will pick up his $7.3 million option shortly.

Corey Kispert (25) is too old to qualify

Other candidates: Johnny Davis

Contract: $5.6 million (third of four years, $5.6 million guaranteed)
Projected role: Starter
Breakout heat: 9

Sochan is a tough, energetic, multi-positional player who complements Wembanyama. The Spurs will pick up his $7.1 million option before the season. Through two seasons, Sochan already has 3,651 minutes logged as a double-digit scorer (11.3 career average). He'll garner more attention nationally as the Spurs start to win games.

Other candidates: Malaki Branham, Julian Champagnie, Blake Wesley

Contract: $4.1 million (second of four years, $4.1 million guaranteed)
Projected role: Starter
Breakout heat: 9

The Jazz started strong in recent seasons before fizzling into a lottery position (by design). The team prioritizes development over playoffs, and George will benefit from minutes and opportunity.

He averaged 13 points and 4.4 assists through 75 games (44 starts) last year. However, he needs to improve his shooting (33.4 percent from three). Utah will pick up his $4.3 million option, and George will shine throughout the season.

Other candidates: Walker Kessler, Taylor Hendricks

Contract: $7.2 million (third of four years, $7.2 million guaranteed)
Projected role: Rotation/potential starter
Breakout heat: 9

The Pacers lost Mathurin to a shoulder injury but advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals. How will the third-year wing fit in with the team that has evolved since he was sidelined?

Whether he comes off the bench or as a starter, Mathurin is already a 15.8-point per-game scorer. He's athletic, fights defensively and should help bolster the Pacers for another strong season. The team will pick up his $9.2 million option.

Andrew Nembhard is young enough to qualify; he only has two years of service but is out on 32.6 playoff minutes per game.

Other candidates: Isaiah Jackson, Ben Sheppard, Jarace Walker

Contract: $3.4 million (second of four years, $3.4 million guaranteed)
Projected role: Rotation
Breakout heat: 9

Whitmore fell to No. 20 in the 2023 draft because of injury concerns. If his career ends up shorter because of physical limitations, he's playing to make the most of his time and prove the naysayers wrong. While he doesn't project to start, he'll provide double-digit scoring off the bench and be in the running for Sixth Man of the Year. Houston will pick up his $3.5 million option soon as well.

Amen Thompson is another breakout candidate. His biggest weakness is shooting, but he's an incredible athlete who does a lot to make the Rockets a better team. Alperen Şengün, Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr. have reached vet status by minutes played.

Other candidates: Amen Thompson

Contract: $4.5 million (third of four years, $4.5 million guaranteed)
Projected role: Starter
Breakout heat: 9

The Pistons need Duren to take a leap, and with health, new coach J.B. Bickerstaff and an improved roster, Detroit will finally take a step forward this season. Duren already averaged 13.8 points and 11.6 rebounds a game last season. He'll be better and central to his team's success. He'll get his $6.5 million option picked up shortly.

Guard Jaden Ivey has already reached 4,521 minutes.

Other candidates: Ausar Thompson

Contract: $6.6 million (third of four years, $6.6 million guaranteed)
Projected role: Starter
Breakout heat: 9.5

Sharpe would be at least one spot higher on this list if not for a shoulder injury that will sideline him for 4-6 weeks. But once he returns, look for Sharpe to gradually take over the Blazers' lead scoring role. He jumped from 9.9 points a game as a rookie to 15.9 last year—he should eclipse 20 once he's back in shape and ready to play. His $8.4 million option is a no-brainer.

Other candidates: Scoot Henderson

Contract: $11.4 million (second of four years, $11.4 million guaranteed)
Projected role: Starter
Breakout heat: 10

The Hornets have a new head coach (Charles Lee), a better roster, and hopefully enough health this year to improve its on-court product. Ultimately, the team will probably focus on development and the draft, but Miller should have the green light all year. The second-year forward averaged 17.3 points a game last year, shooting 37.3 percent from three-point range. He'll eclipse 20 per game as his overall game matures. The Hornets will give him his $12 million option as well.

Other candidates: Mark Williams, Tre Mann

Contract: $4.5 million (fourth of four years, $4.5 million guaranteed)
Projected role: Starter
Breakout heat: 10

It's easy to forget that Johnson was somewhat forgettable through his first two seasons. He already broke out last year to 16.0 points per game, but it wasn't noticed as widely as it should have been—probably because the Hawks weren't very good. Three players named Jalen earned most-improved votes (Williams, Brunson and Suggs), but none for Johnson.

When he jumps to over 20 points per game this season and Atlanta is more competitive than some expect, Johnson will earn MIP as this year's breakout prospect. He's still just 22, has three years of service, just 3,051 minutes logged, and averaged 9.3 minutes per game in the 2022-23 playoffs.

Other candidates: Dyson Daniels, Kobe Bufkin

Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him on X/Twitter @EricPincus.