Exercise or Decline? Predictions for 19 MLB Players with a 2025 Contract Option

Contract options—whether they are club, player or mutual—have to be exercised or declined within five days of the end of the World Series. So, while the baseball world is currently focused on who will win the Fall Classic, it won't be long until the hot stove starts cooking.

For the purposes of this article, we've assumed that nearly all mutual options—meaning the club and player have to pick it up—will be declined by one or both parties. That's kind of how those typically play out.

Among those who have mutual options are Joc Pederson of the Arizona Diamondbacks, David Robertson of the Texas Rangers and Ha-seong Kim of the San Diego Padres. All will likely be declined by at least one of the two parties.

The more difficult options to predict are club and player options, with only one of the two parties getting to make the ultimate decision on whether the marriage continues for at least another year.

Here are predictions on what decision will be made on 19 players with either a club or player option for the 2025 season.

Option: Bellinger can opt out of remaining two years and $52.5 million, which would come with a $2.5 million buyout

Prediction: Bellinger opts into 2025 with Cubs

Cody Bellinger has had one of the stranger careers in MLB history. He won NL Rookie of the Year (2017) and NL MVP (2019) as a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers, but he was eventually non-tendered after posting just a .648 OPS between 2020 and 2022.

To his credit, he revived his career in 2023 with the Cubs, hitting .307 with 26 home runs, 97 RBI and an .881 OPS. Still, he was saddled with a qualifying offer when he returned to the open market last offseason, and it was hard to shake parts of three underwhelming campaigns to finish off his time with the Dodgers.

So, Bellinger, a Scott Boras client, had to settle for a three-year, $80 million pact that includes player opt-outs after the 2024 and 2025 seasons.

On one hand, Bellinger is still only 29, offers positional flexibility and wouldn't have a qualifying offer attached to him if he hits the open market this time, so any signing team wouldn't have to give up draft compensation to sign him. The Cubs would also owe him $2.5 million if he opts out.

On the other hand, Bellinger had a middling 2024 season, hitting .266 with a .751 OPS. Given he can also opt out of his deal after 2025 if he has a big season next year, it makes sense for him not to opt out this winter. He'll be paid $27.5 million in 2025, with the security of $25 million in 2026 to fall back on still.

Option: Haniger can opt out of $17.5 million for 2025

Prediction: Haniger opts into $17.5 million for 2025

Despite having arguably the best starting pitching staff in baseball, the Mariners missed the postseason altogether in 2024. That's in large part because they finished 21st in runs scored during the regular season at 676.

Among those who underperformed was Mitch Haniger, who was reacquired from the San Francisco Giants in an offseason trade that saw them offload the contract of former AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray.

Of course, the Giants didn't just take on Ray's deal out of the kindness of their hearts.

Haniger was an All-Star for the M's in 2018, and was typically a very effective player when healthy across parts of five seasons over his first stint in Seattle. The second stint didn't get off to as strong of a start, as he hit just .208 with a .620 OPS and a -0.6 WAR.

The 33-year-old did hit 12 home runs and drive in 44 runs over 121 games this past season, but he wouldn't sniff $17.5 million if he opts out. So he won't opt out.

Option: Can opt out of $19 million for 2025

Prediction: Giolito opts into $19 million for 2025

Even after a nightmarish 2023 campaign that saw him allow a staggering 41 home runs in a season split between the Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels and Cleveland Guardians, Giolito still received a lucrative two-year, $38.5 million deal from the Red Sox last winter.

The one thing you typically could bet on from Giolito was that he was going to eat innings, having logged 170 or more on four occasions previously. The Red Sox, though, didn't get that in 2024, as he suffered an elbow injury that ended his season during spring training.

Gilito underwent an internal brace procedure, which doesn't come with the same type of recovery as Tommy John surgery. Still, he missed all of 2024 after a disastrous 2023, so he's not going to opt out of certain money in 2025.

As things stand, the 30-year-old will make $19 million in 2025. He also has a complicated 2026 option. If he pitches less than 140 innings in 2025, the Red Sox will have a $14 million club option on him for 2026. If he pitches 140 or more innings in 2025, he'll have a $19 million mutual option for 2026, which comes with a $1.5 million buyout if either side doesn't exercise the option. His contract also includes $1 million in annual incentives based on the number of innings he pitched.

So, there's a less than zero percent chance Giolito opts out of his deal is what we're saying.

Option: Can opt out of $144 million between 2025-2028 and become a free agent if Yankees don't add 10th year onto contract at $36 million

Prediction: Cole opts out of $144 million between 2025-2028, Yankees agree to add 10th year at $36 million

A year ago, it would have been a no-brainer for Cole, the AL Cy Young Award winner, to opt out of his deal. And the Yankees would have had no hesitation in guaranteeing their ace a 10th year at $36 million and preventing him from returning to the open market.

Gerrit Cole didn't make his 2024 debut until mid-June as he was sidelined with right elbow inflammation. However, the rest and rehab approach, for once, actually proved successful.

It took Cole some time to get going, but he posted a 2.25 ERA over his final 10 starts of the regular season. He allowed just one run over seven innings in Game 4 of the ALDS, as the Yankees eliminated the Kansas City Royals.

It will be an interesting game of cat and mouse this offseason between Cole—a Boras client—and the Yankees. He is now 34 and has logged more than 1,950 innings in his career.

But the Yankees probably need him more than he needs them, and the bet is that if he forces their hands, they'll ultimately guarantee him $36 million in 2028, his age-37 season.

If the Yankees allow Cole to opt out and decline to pick up his 2028 option, they could be left empty-handed if he leaves in free agency because he won't be eligible for the qualifying offer after previously receiving one from the Houston Astros after the 2019 season.

So, if he hits the open market, it's a sign the Yankees really don't feel good about his elbow moving forward.

Option: Hoskins can opt out of $18 million for 2025

Prediction: Hoskins opts into $18 million for 2025

Rhys Hoskins missed the entire 2023 season after tearing his left ACL late in spring training. During that time, Bryce Harper proved capable of playing first base, and with Kyle Schwarber entrenched at DH, the Philadelphia Phillies ultimately decided to let Hoskins—one of the more popular players the team has had in recent memory—walk in free agency.

The Brewers gave Hoskins a two-year, $34 million deal in free agency. His first year with the Brew Crew was a mixed bag.

The 31-year-old homered 26 times and drove in 82 runs. But he also posted underwhelming marks in terms of batting average (.214) and on-base percentage (.303), both of which were career worsts.

Hoskins would make $18 million if he opts into the second year of his deal. The Brewers would owe him a $4 million buyout if he opts out, but it's unlikely he would make $18 million total between his buyout and whatever new deal he would sign.

So, he'll opt in for next season, knowing he'll be returning to a Brewers team with World Series aspirations. It doesn't hurt to know that if either side declines the $18 million mutual option for 2026, Hoskins will be paid a $4 million buyout then.

Option: Manaea can opt out of $13.5 million in 2025

Prediction: Manaea opts out of $13.5 million in 2025

This is about as much of a no-brainer as there is on this list.

Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns signed Sean Manaea to a two-year, $28 million in January.

New York has received much closer to the version of Manaea who was a borderline ace with the Oakland Athletics, as opposed to the one who underwhelmed in individual seasons with the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants before joining the Mets.

Manaea had the best season of his career in 2024, going 12-6 with a 3.47 ERA and 3.83 FIP across 181.2 innings pitched. Both him and Luis Severino reviving their careers have been major factors in the Mets making a magical run to the NLCS.

So, Manaea will obviously opt out of $13.5 million in 2025. The Mets will likely counter by extending a one-year, $21.05 million qualifying offer to him. He could either accept that and return to the Mets in 2025, or decline it and look for more total money over a multi-year deal in free agency.

Having the qualifying offer attached to him, though, would mean any team other than the Mets would have to surrender draft compensation to sign him.

It just feels like one way or another, Manaea will likely be back with the Mets in 2025. But it won't be for $13.5 million.

Option: Ray can opt out of $50 million between 2025-2026

Prediction: Ray opts into $50 million between 2025-2026

We mentioned Ray earlier as the other end of the Haniger trade.

Now-former president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi took on Ray's deal likely knowing he would be on the books for the team through the 2026 season. Zaidi's successor, Buster Posey, will now inherit the final two seasons of the five-year, $115 million deal he initially signed with the Mariners.

Ray had Tommy John surgery in May 2023 and returned in July 2024. While he pitched five innings without allowing a hit in his first start in San Francisco, he posted a 4.70 ERA across seven starts for the Giants this past season.

There's just no chance he's walking away from $50 million over the next two seasons.

As Ray moves further away from Tommy John surgery, his results should get better than what they were in 2024. He'll be hard-pressed to match the 2021 season he put together for the Toronto Blue Jays, which ended in him winning the AL Cy Young Award.

Option: Montgomery can opt out of $22.5 million in 2025

Prediction: Montgomery opts into $22.5 million for 2025

After he helped the Texas Rangers to defeat the Diamondbacks in the 2023 World Series, Jordan Montgomery lingered longer than expected on the free-agent market.

The 31-year-old ended up settling for a one-year, $25 million deal with the Diamondbacks that included the chance to opt out of $22.5 million for 2025 if he made 10 starts in 2024.

As it turns out, no one is happy with that arrangement.

Montgomery fired Boras as his agent, later saying "obviously Boras kind of butchered it."

The veteran lefty wasn't in adequate shape when he arrived to Arizona, though, and had a disastrous season for the Snakes, posting a 6.23 ERA across 117 innings, some of which came out of the bullpen.

Owner Ken Kendrick has blasted Montgomery this offseason, taking blame for the signing.

"If anyone wants to blame anyone for Jordan Montgomery being a Diamondback, you're talking to the guy that should be blamed," Kendrick told Burns & Gambo. "Because I brought it to [the front office's] attention. I pushed for it. They agreed to it—it wasn't in our game plan. You know when he was signed—right at the end of spring training. And looking back, in hindsight, a horrible decision to invest that money in a guy who performed as poorly as he did. It's our biggest mistake this season from a talent standpoint. And I'm the perpetrator of that."

If Kendrick made these comments with the intention of making things so untenable for Montgomery that he declines his $22.5 million option for 2025, well, don't count on it.

However, it does feel like Montgomery could become a trade candidate once he opts in, particularly if Arizona is willing to pay down some of his 2025 salary.

Option: Braves can exercise $8 million option for 2025

Prediction: Braves exercise $8 million option for 2025

With a propensity to deliver big hits, Travis d'Arnaud has become a popular player during five seasons with the Braves. Expect the relationship to be extended for a sixth year.

Across 99 games for Atlanta this past season, he homered 15 times and drove in 48 runs. In an ideal situation, he will be the 1B catcher for the Braves, with Sean Murphy getting a bulk of the starts behind the plate.

But the Braves were reminded this year that the 35-year-old is a valuable insurance option if Murphy goes down, and he allows them to manage the workload of Murphy otherwise.

Picking up his $8 million option for 2025 will be a relatively easy decision for president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos.

Option: Eovaldi can exercise a $20 million option for 2025

Prediction: Eovaldi declines $20 million option for 2025

After topping 300 total innings between 2023 and 2024, Nathan Eovaldi has a $20 million player option for 2025. Whether he gets more than that on the open market for the 2025 season, it makes sense for the veteran righty to opt out.

First of all, if he opts out, the Rangers will owe him a $2 million buyout. Secondly, he will be ineligible to receive a qualifying offer this offseason, because he previously rejected one from the Boston Red Sox. That will help his value in free agency.

Eovaldi has never been an iron man, but he has an extended postseason resume, having won World Series titles as a member of the Red Sox (2018) and Rangers (2023).

He also posted a 3.72 ERA across 54 starts for the Rangers the past two seasons, so he should get a multi-year deal in free agency well in excess of $20 million total.

Option: Orioles can exercise $8 million option for 2025

Prediction: Orioles exercise $8 million option for 2025

The Orioles acquired Seranthony Domínguez in a deal with the Phillies prior to the trade deadline, sending outfielder Austin Hays to Philadelphia. Both players had run their courses with their respective teams, so it made sense as a swap.

Hays—largely thanks to a kidney infection—wasn't able to make much of an impact for the Phillies. Domínguez probably wasn't a big enough addition for general manager Mike Elias at the deadline for a needy bullpen, and his 3.97 ERA over 25 games doesn't stand out.

However, he was 10-for-11 in save opportunities and would be a strong set-up option for star closer Félix Bautista, who will be returning after missing all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery.

It's not a guarantee that the O's pick up this option, as they could decline it and take the $500,000 buyout instead. But the bullpen was the biggest issue for the Orioles in 2024, and Domínguez showed enough to think he could be part of the solution in 2025.

Option: Diamondbacks can exercise a $7 million option for 2025

Prediction: Diamondbacks exercise $7 million option for 2025

As you'll see, the Diamondbacks are the club with the most consequential option decisions. This one should be pretty easy.

Merrill Kelly was limited to 13 starts this year by a right shoulder strain, and it's fair to have some level of skepticism about his durability moving forward given that he's now 36 years old.

Still, $7 million is a ridiculous bargain for a pitcher who has a 3.82 ERA across six seasons in Arizona, and pitched like a top-of-the-rotation arm from 2022-2023.

There are some question marks in the starting rotation for the D-backs, as Montgomery struggled in 2024, while both Kelly and Eduardo Rodríguez had trouble staying healthy. But with Zac Gallen and Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona has a chance to have one of the best rotations in baseball this upcoming season if all goes well.

Option: Cardinals can exercise an $11 million option for 2025

Prediction: Cardinals decline $11 million option for 2025

Lance Lynn wasn't terrible in his second go-round with the Cardinals, pitching to a 3.84 ERA and 4.31 FIP over 117.1 innings pitched.

Still, he had two injured-list stints with right knee inflammation and will turn 38 next May. The Cardinals are looking to trim payroll in 2025, so it stands to reason they will take the $1 million buyout on his option, rather than paying him $11 million to return.

The Cardinals will have to make a similar decision on fellow veteran righty Kyle Gibson, who has a $12 million club option with a $1 million buyout.

Both he and Lynn will be pitching somewhere in 2025, but the guess here is neither will have their options exercised by the Cardinals.

Option: Braves can exercise $16 million option for 2025

Prediction: Braves exercise $16 million option for 2025

Marcell Ozuna served a 20-game domestic violence suspension during the 2021 season. When he was hitting .085 at the end of April 2023, it felt like the Braves may end up having to cut their losses and release him.

Instead, he hit 40 home runs and drove in 100 runs over the totality of the 2023 season as part of a historic offense. The Braves were decimated by injuries in 2024, but he was the one constant, homering 39 times and posting a .925 OPS. Even as a full-time DH, he has a real shot to finish in the top five in NL MVP voting.

From a moral perspective, perhaps the Braves should have moved on from Ozuna after his arrest. They didn't, though, and he's revived his career.

There's no reason to think now the Braves won't exercise what amounts to a very team-friendly option and bring him back for a sixth season.

Option: Brewers can exercise $8 million option for 2025

Prediction: Brewers exercise $8 million option for 2025

Talk about a lay-up.

Freddy Peralta has pitched to a 3.79 ERA over parts of seven seasons with the Brewers. He was an All-Star in 2021, and was the ace for the team in 2024 after Corbin Burnes was traded in spring training.

This is the first of two $8 million club options likely to be exercised by the Brewers.

Teams will likely call to check on the availability of the 28-year-old this offseason. But unless they overwhelm the Brewers, Peralta will likely be back with a team that has World Series aspirations in 2025.

He, Brandon Woodruff, Tobias Myers, Colin Rea and Aaron Civale could make up a really strong rotation.

Option: Yankees can exercise $17 million option for 2025

Prediction: Yankees decline $17 million option for 2025

Anthony Rizzo delivered a key double in the Yankees' Game 2 win over the Cleveland Guardians in this year's ALCS. With one World Series trophy on his resume from the 2016 Chicago Cubs, he has a chance to earn a second ring this postseason.

Regardless of what happens, the Yankees are going to decline his $17 million club option from 2025. Between post-concussion syndrome a year ago and both a right forearm fracture and a pair of broken fingers this season, he played in just 191 of a possible 324 regular season games over the pair of guaranteed years on his two-year, $40 million deal. Over that span, he hit just .237.

Now 35, Rizzo will likely be in a big league camp next spring training. Certainly, though, the three-time All-Star will not be making $17 million in 2025.

Option: Diamondbacks can exercise $15 million option for 2025

Prediction: Diamondbacks exercise $15 million option for 2025

This will be interesting, because Eugenio Suárez really struggled at the start of his first season with the Diamondbacks, hitting .216 with a .668 OPS prior to the All-Star break.

However, in the second half of the season, he was one of the better hitters in baseball, hitting .307 with 20 home runs, 53 RBIs and a .942 OPS.

According to FanGraphs, the 2.9 WAR Suárez posted in the second half of the season was the 11th-best mark among all position players.

On the heels of his monster second half, the Snakes will likely pick up Suárez's option, which would have been unthinkable in mid-June.

Option: Brewers can exercise $10.5 million option for 2025

Prediction: Brewers exercise $10.5 million option for 2025

Devin Williams won't become a free agent if the Brewers declined his $10.5 million option, as he has one more remaining year of arbitration eligibility before being able to reach free agency.

That's a moot point, though, because he would make way more money in arbitration than $10.5 million, so the Brewers will surely pick up his option.

That doesn't necessarily mean he'll be back in Milwaukee next year, though. The Brewers could pick up his option and then trade him before his contract year, with general manager Matt Arnold hinting at the possibility in his year-end press conference.

"We have to stay open-minded," Arnold said, according to MLB.com's Adam McCalvy. "We're the smallest market in the league, so that's something that's required in this."

Williams may have had a disappointing end to his 2024 campaign—and perhaps his Brewers career—when he blew a save against the New York Mets in Game 3 of the NLWCS. But he's one of the game's elite relievers, and if the Brewers are willing to trade him, there will be plenty of serious suitors.

Option: Yankees can exercise $2.5 million option for 2025

Prediction: Yankees exercise $2.5 million option for 2025

This is a slam dunk for general manager Brian Cashman, as Weaver has become one of the most reliable relievers in baseball in his age-30 season.

Across 62 games this season for the Yankees, he posted a 2.89 ERA with a 0.929 WHIP. When Clay Holmes hit a wall late in the season, Weaver seized the closer's job. He recorded four saves in four attempts in September and has four saves so far this postseason.

Whether the Yankees envision him as their Opening Day closer or a setup man, $2.5 million is a bargain. It won't take more than 10 seconds for the Yankees to pick up his option.