Predicting the NBA's 7 Most Improved Players in 2024-25

Most NBA analysts struggle with their interpretation of "most improved."

Should second-year players be allowed?

If not, do we extend that to include anyone still on their rookie-scale deals?

What exactly constitutes "most improved?" A good player who put up numbers after receiving a bigger role? A household name making the transition from fringe star to All-Star or from All-Star to All-NBA territory?

And how much consideration do we give those working from low baselines—limited to nonexistent samples and playing time—who suddenly burst onto the scene?

See what I'm talking about? It's no picnic between these ears.

For the purposes of this exercise, we are going to focus on the biggest jumps from household names. And in order to clarify the process, we will lean on tiers to guide us through this journey. They will be as follows:

• Fringe All-Star Leaps (Tier 3): Decidedly non-stars who will show enough improvement to be mentioned on the periphery of All-Star ballots.
  
• All-Star Leaps (Tier 2): Notable players who will make a push for their first-ever All-Star selections.
• All-NBA Leaps (Tier 1): Players who will improve enough to bag All-NBA honors or be primary honorable "Fourth Team" mentions. They do not need to have a previous All-Star selection to be stationed above the previous tier.

Ready? Set? Let's go!

Availability upended Johnson's Most Improved Player candidacy last season. Fortunately for him, he has the runway to re-enter the fold in Year 4.

Dejounte Murray's exit gives the Hawks usage to spare. Those opportunities will be filled by committee. Nobody, though, stands to benefit more than Johnson. Bogdan Bogdanović comes close, but Atlanta may turn to him for more table-setting.

Regardless, Johnson will have a different type of license this year. The shooting, the floor-running and the catch-and-go decision-making will all be explored in higher volume. The Hawks might even ask him to break down more set defenses in the half-court during non-Trade Young minutes.

Clearing 20 points per game on even better efficiency than last year is Johnson's standard. If his role is as integral as expected, the playmaking should continue to improve. And on top of that, there's wiggle room for him to leave more of a defensive dent—particularly as a tone-setter in transition.

I have spent the better part of the past month kicking around Jalen Suggs as my official Most Improved Player pick. I can't quite get there in the end. And it's not so much about Suggs as the structure of the Magic's offense.

It seems like more initiation reps will be funneled to Paolo Banchero (duh), Franz Wagner and even Anthony Black. That inherently curbs just how much more Suggs can actually do in Year 4.

And yet, his improvement trajectory is not one we can write off.

Questions abounded on offense entering last year. Could he take and make enough threes? Streamline his decision-making and finishing on drives? Suggs answered both questions in the affirmative, all while guarding frantically enough to earn All-Defense honors.

Materially bumping up his 12.6 points per game is a formality if you buy the shooting. More methodical facilitation will be his swing skill. Does he have the on-ball half-court navigation and vision to run more pick-and-rolls? To tee up more of his teammates when defenses collapse on his drives?

Most of his playmaking, right now, seems tethered to more impromptu improvisation. That's a great thing, especially as it pertains to his full-floor gall on outlets and after rebounds. But Suggs has honed enough of his overall offense to wonder if he can be more of a deliberate second-wheel floor general.

Cunningham averaged 22.5 points and 7.8 assists after Christmas last season while banging in 38 percent of his triples and lowering his turnover rate from 15.8 to 12.6 amid an increase in usage. That by itself is enough to toss him into this subset.

At the same time, counting on a continuation misses the mark. Cunningham should get...better.

Detroit has easier access to quality-spacing lineups this season. That stands to augment not only Cunningham's playmaking, but it invites more follow through on his drives and the rim pressure that comes with it.

Joining the 25-and-eight club before his age-24 season on ascending efficiency and better ball and possession control isn't just on the table.

It's the expectation.

Holmgren has already established himself as a divine floor-spacing rim protector with bonkers defensive mobility. Upgrading off that can be difficult. Oklahoma City is set up to help him do it.

Broader offensive horizons will be the wave he rides into this discussion. The Josh Giddey trade first and foremost gives Jalen Williams more agency, but Holmgren is a closer-than-you-think second.

The Thunder have the spacing necessary to nudge up his pump-and-drive game, and the early absence of Isaiah Hartenstein will encourage them to explore his passing in the short roll as well as his standstill playmaking from the post or top of the key.

Having more on-ball reps at large should jazz up Holmgren's assist and scoring totals. If he maintains his defensive versatility and paint deterrence while following a more consistent arc as a three-point shooter, his improvement could end up belonging in Tier 1.

Mobley's defensive impact largely speaks for himself. He is among the scant few bigs who can serve as a perimeter stopper, primary paint protector and secondary off-ball chaos creator.

Cannonballing into All-Star territory will require more on offense. This is most often associated with his three-point shooting. That's certainly part of it. But his path toward All-Stardom more so runs through his on-ball decision-making.

Does his handle improve enough to break down set defenses off the bounce? And for him to torch opponents as both a self-starter and live-dribble playmaker?

Any and all answers are debatable. Mine is "yes." I also fully expect him to uncork three or more triples per game under head coach Kenny Atkinson. And given the way Cleveland projects to stagger its four best players, Mobley should have the opportunity necessary to test and actualize more complicated scoring and playmaking usage.

Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs

It can sometimes feel like Wemby's hype train is going off the rails. He is the consensus favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year, and many are wondering whether he can ferry a decidedly below-average Spurs squad into playoff territory.

Tall orders are part of being a generational talent, though. Attempting to suss out the limits of Wemby's improvement is fair. But if he's going to follow in the footsteps of LeBron James and Luka Dončić, among others, the Year 2 Hype Machine is exactly where it should be.

Spotting improvement could be tough at first glance. Wemby just finished second in DPOY voting and flashed an offensive package that included bankable pull-up three-point shooting. The next frontier probably features something like more dependable catch-and-fire touch from deep, additional rim pressure, fewer turnovers and a stat line that, in the aggregate, outstrips the 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.2 steals and 3.6 blocks he averaged last year.

And you know what, considering all he accomplished in under 30 minutes per game as a rookie, this seems not only reasonable, but likely.

J-Dub bagged a top-four finish in Most Improved Player voting as a sophomore on the back of his 19.1 points and 4.5 assists per game. If you're going to earmark him for another substantial ascent, you might as well bypass the All-Star tier and slot him here.

And so, we will.

Functional expansion should continue to define his case. Consider how much extra self-creation he shouldered last year:

• Percent of made baskets unassisted in 2022-23: 58.4 percent of twos, 9.6 percent of threes
• Percent of made baskets unassisted in 2023-24: 59.6 percent of twos, 25.2 percent of threes

This progression into an initiator hub should persist in Year 2. Josh Giddey's exit opens the door for Williams to do even more facilitating and self-creation. That's not really Alex Caruso's M.O., and the Isaiah Hartenstein injury only increases the importance of J-Dub as a central option. Don't be surprised if this is someone who clears 24 points and five assists while sporting even more on-ball jiggle and joggle in the half-court and defending at a high level.

Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.

Unless otherwise cited, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass. Salary information via Spotrac. Draft-pick obligations via RealGM.