Forecasting MLB's 10 Biggest Headlines of the 2024-25 Offseason

The MLB offseason has arrived, and the next few months will be all about free-agency predictions and trade rumors as teams prepare to bolster their rosters for the 2025 season.

Outfielder Juan Soto is the biggest name set to hit the open market this winter. Given his age, track record and expected asking price of more than $500 million, he is one of the highest-profile free agents in baseball history.

However, his ultimate landing spot is not the only baseball story that will grab headlines this winter.

Ahead, we've given our best guess at what will be the 10 biggest headlines of the 2024-25 MLB offseason, including free-agency predictions, blockbuster trade proposals and one massive extension.

Let the hot-stove games begin.

Regardless of what happens with the rest of their offseason, the New York Yankees' success or failure this winter will be judged by whether they are able to retain Juan Soto beyond a one-year stint, during which he helped carry the team to the World Series.

It's going to cost them, though.

"The industry agrees the floor for his contract will be $500 million," Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote while citing his age as much as his skill for the logic behind that figure.

That number could easily climb closer to $600 million, and a 15-year, $600 million pact was actually my prediction for Soto's next contract a few weeks ago in an article highlighting baseball's leading candidates to join the $100 million club this offseason.

There is simply no equivalent replacement for the 26-year-old in the Yankees lineup, and while there are other holes that need to be filled, losing Soto would be a massive step backward for a team that reached the Fall Classic even with a flawed roster thanks in large part to his contributions.

The luxury tax serves as a powerful invisible line for many organizations when it comes to offseason spending. Exceeding that threshold means risking tax payments and potentially losing draft picks, depending on how far the spending exceeds the tax line.

That hasn't been a consideration for Steve Cohen since he took over as owner of the New York Mets, though.

After reaching the NLCS in a season that many expected to be a retooling year, the Mets are poised to spend big this offseason, whether that means reeling in Juan Soto or spending that money on a list of other established stars.

A reunion with Pete Alonso seems like a lock, but a deal will likely require a contract north of $150 million.

There is also the matter of rebuilding a starting rotation that has Kodai Senga, David Peterson and a lot of question marks heading into 2025. It would not be surprising to see one or more of Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty or old friend Sean Manaea penciled into that rotation when next season begins.

Adding another outfield bat also looks like an obvious need, and if it's not Soto, sluggers Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernández and Tyler O'Neill will all be in play.

The money they gave Edwin Díaz in free agency a few years ago is also a good indication that they are not afraid to pay top-tier relief pitching help, and they could use at least a couple late-inning arms.

The Los Angeles Dodgers spent over $1 billion last offseason and won a World Series title.

Cohen could use that as a blueprint to building a title contender this offseason.

A laundry list of injuries left the Los Angeles Dodgers to lean on deadline pickup Jack Flaherty, rookie Yoshinobu Yamamoto, an underperforming Walker Buehler and a mix-and-match bullpen during the postseason.

With Shohei Ohtani expected to return to the mound in 2025 and Tyler Glasnow, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May all on track to return to action, the Dodgers could stand pat and still have a much better starting pitching situation than they did in October.

Does anyone really expect them to stand pat, though?

Given all of the injuries they have endured on the pitching side of things in recent years, durability could be at the top of the traits they are looking for in an outside addition, which moves Corbin Burnes to the top of their shopping list.

The 2021 NL Cy Young winner has started 33, 32 and 32 games over the past three seasons, ranking third in the majors with 590 innings pitched during that span while posting a 3.08 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and earning an All-Star selection each year.

His next contract is expected to exceed $200 million as he makes his first foray into free agency. There is no better way for the Dodgers to spend that kind of money than on a true ace of the staff.

The Baltimore Orioles plugged the most glaring hole on the roster last offseason when they acquired Corbin Burnes in a blockbuster deal with the Milwaukee Brewers to slot in as the staff's ace.

However, the 30-year-old is now hitting free agency, and while the Orioles have every reason to spend around their up-and-coming young core, his price tag could quickly climb beyond a level they are comfortable spending.

That said, they can't simply lose Burnes without finding a suitable replacement.

The current projected starting rotation is Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, Albert Suárez and Trevor Rogers, with prospects Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott waiting in the wings as playable depth.

That has a chance to be a solid staff, but the Orioles' window to win is swinging open, and they can't simply hope their in-house options are good enough.

Blake Snell has some boom-or-bust in his profile, while Jack Flaherty already took a turn in Baltimore with disappointing results, so the best fit as a free-agency replacement for Burnes might be left-hander Max Fried.

He has been a staple atop the rotation on contending Atlanta Braves teams for the past five seasons, and after dealing with some arm issues in 2023, he made 29 starts and worked 174.1 innings this past season while posting a 3.25 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and a 166-to-55 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Fried, 30, will not be a bargain by any means and could end up commanding a contract north of $100 million, but he will almost certainly come cheaper than Burnes both in terms of overall money and average annual value.

If re-signing Burnes is still Plan A, making a run at Fried is a suitable Plan B.

If you're looking for the next high-profile star to make his way stateside from the Japanese League, look no further than right-hander Roki Sasaki.

With a fastball that bumps triple digits and electric secondary stuff, the 23-year-old has been on the MLB radar for years, but he is at the mercy of the Chiba Lotte Marines and their willingness to post him.

Sasaki asked to be posted for MLB teams last offseason, but that request was denied. As a player under the age of 25 with fewer than six years of professional experience, he is also subject to international bonus pool restrictions.

From the Marines' standpoint, it makes sense for them to wait until after the 2026 season, when he is free to sign with any team under traditional free-agency rules.

The posting fee paid to a Japanese League team is based on a percentage of the contract they ultimately sign. The Orix Buffaloes received roughly $50 million from the Dodgers after Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed a $325 million deal last offseason.

The largest bonus Sasaki could receive this winter would be around $7 million, assuming it's a team with a full international bonus pool remaining. Thus, the Marines would have little to show for losing one of the country's brightest stars.

There are also other complicating factors.

"Some scouts think Sasaki would prefer a smaller market, and his velocity was down this year, leading some to believe he's nursing an injury," Kiley McDaniel of ESPN wrote.

While there continues to be buzz that Sasaki could be posted this winter, expect him to spend another season in the Japanese League. Last year, he went 10-5 with a 2.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 129 strikeouts in 111 innings, a down season by his standards.

The value of a homegrown star hits a little differently for the team that developed him.

This offseason, a pair of established offensive stars who have only known one team—New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso and Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman—are set to test the open market.

Re-upping with the Mets feels like a foregone conclusion for Alonso, but Bregman's offseason outlook is hazier.

The Astros' two other key pieces—outfielder Kyle Tucker and starter Framber Valdez—are set to reach free agency after the 2025 season, and how they proceed with Bregman could have a ripple effect on whether those players stay.

That said, the Astros took care of one homegrown star when they signed Jose Altuve to a five-year, $125 million extension last February, all but guaranteeing the 34-year-old will spend the rest of his career in Houston.

Here's guessing that after he tests the waters and gets a feel for his market value, Bregman does the same with something in the neighborhood of a six-year, $180 million deal that runs through his age-36 season and locks down the hot corner for the foreseeable future.

The San Francisco Giants have had difficulty reeling in top-tier free-agent talent in recent years, but a revamped front office led by new president of baseball operations Buster Posey could quickly change that narrative.

The 37-year-old has already made one major move, inking Matt Chapman to a six-year, $151 million extension in early September before he could exercise a potential opt-out in his contract.

The rotation stands to lose Blake Snell after he exercised his opt-out, so finding a quality starter to slot alongside workhorse Logan Webb atop the rotation will be a priority. Jack Flaherty could be a good fit coming off an impressive bounce-back season.

There is also the matter of an offense lacking a middle-of-the-order punch. While some of that is by design, with a home ballpark that caters to pitching, they can't simply punt on having reliable sluggers to carry the offense.

Shortstop Willy Adames is one of the top bats on the market after posting a 118 OPS+ with 33 doubles, 32 home runs, 112 RBI and 21 steals in a 3.1-WAR season.

Rookie shortstop Tyler Fitzgerald was a bright spot in 2024, but he also looks like one of baseball's biggest regression candidates. He posted an unsustainable .380 batting average on balls in play en route to a .280/.334/.497 batting line and nothing in his middling batted-ball profile suggests his power production will continue over a full season.

If the Giants can walk away with a star shortstop and a quality No. 2 starter this winter, it would be a major step in the right direction after years of hovering around the .500 mark.

The St. Louis Cardinals are expected to be open for business this offseason following a disappointing 2024 season, and two of their most intriguing trade candidates are veteran third baseman Nolan Arenado and All-Star closer Ryan Helsley.

The Seattle Mariners could be the perfect trade partner.

With a glaring hole at the hot corner and in the middle of the lineup, Arenado would be a huge addition, even if he is no longer the MVP-caliber superstar he was in the prime of his career.

The 33-year-old still hit .272/.325/.394 for a 101 OPS+ with 23 doubles, 16 home runs and 71 RBI in a 2.5-WAR season. And with the Cardinals on the hook for $64 million over the next three years, they might be content moving him for any sort of salary relief.

That said, the Mariners have one of the deepest farm systems in baseball. If they are willing to part with some quality prospect talent, they might be able to turn it into a packaged deal that also includes Helsley.

The 30-year-old is entering his final year of arbitration eligibility and is coming off a year in which he saved a franchise record 49 games while posting a 2.04 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 10.7 K/9 in 62 games.

Slotting him alongside flame-thrower Andrés Muñoz at the back of the bullpen would give the Mariners the type of game-shortening relief corps that would make their stacked starting rotation even more dangerous.

Would a package built around one of their high-ceiling shortstops—Colt Emerson, Cole Young or Felnin Celesten—be enough to get the ball rolling?

Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer were teammates in the Detroit Tigers' starting rotation from 2010, when the latter was acquired from the Arizona Diamondbacks, through the 2014 season when he departed in free agency.

Now these two future Hall of Famers are trying to prove they still have something left in the tank as their careers close.

Both pitchers earned a staggering $43.3 million in 2024, but that price tag will come down considerably following injury-plagued and generally disappointing 2024 seasons:

• Scherzer: 9 GS, 2-4, 3.95 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 40 K, 43.1 IP
• Verlander: 17 GS, 5-6, 5.48 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 74 K, 90.1 IP

A reunion on an up-and-coming Tigers team with a rotation full of question marks beyond 2024 AL Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal could be an interesting approach for everyone involved.

If both players are willing to accept something in the neighborhood of a one-year, $10 million deal to keep pitching, Tigers manager A.J. Hinch does a masterful job deploying his bullpen in a way that takes the pressure off his starting staff.

He might have the perfect approach to maximize their talents at this point in their careers, whether that means guarding them from facing a lineup for a third time, pitching them behind an opener, giving them extra rest or something else entirely.

Free-agent signings and blockbuster trades are the focal point of any MLB offseason, but it's also a time when teams hammer out long-term extensions with their own in-house stars, and every offseason there are at least a few massive contracts handed out.

The most obvious candidate to sign such a deal this winter is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The Toronto Blue Jays stopped short of a full-blown fire sale at the trade deadline, instead moving just their expiring contracts, which suggests they plan on gearing up for another run at contention this winter.

After a glacial start to the 2024 season, Guerrero caught fire in May and never cooled off en route to hitting .323/.396/.544 with 44 doubles, 30 home runs, 103 RBI and 6.2 WAR in 159 games, nearly matching his production from 2021 when he finished runner-up in AL MVP voting.

Still only 25 years old, he is set to reach free agency after the 2025 season, so now is the time for the Blue Jays to strike if they want to hammer out an extension.

A 10-year, $320 million deal would be in line with the 10-year, $313.5 million extension Rafael Devers inked with the Boston Red Sox, and they are similar offense-first players who arrived in the majors at a young age and have developed into middle-of-the-order stars.