College Football Playoff Projections: Week 12 Rankings and Bowl Forecast

If you hoped for a straightforward path to the 2024 College Football Playoff, it's probably time to move beyond that idea.

Two results last Saturday—Miami's loss at Georgia Tech and Ole Miss' victory over Georgia—have complicated the postseason picture. While the ACC is suddenly in an unfavorable spot, the SEC holds a legitimate path to seeing five teams in the College Football Playoff. In the Week 12 release of the CFP rankings, there are six in the Top 15, too.

Now, that's a best-case scenario for the SEC. I wouldn't get too excited or upset over that possibility considering how many upsets we've seen recently. Nevertheless, the list of at-large contenders is thinning by the week.

Meanwhile, postseason spots are filling quickly even beyond the CFP. So far, 53 teams have secured bowl eligibility. There are also 29 five-win teams across the country. Add those together, and that's a perfect match of 82 available bowl slots.

Several five-win programs will end up painfully shy of a sixth victory, and some four-win schools will surge into eligibility. It's our weekly challenge to keep up with those trends.

1. Oregon

2. Ohio State

3. Texas

4. Penn State

5. Indiana

6. BYU

7. Tennessee

8. Notre Dame

9. Miami

10. Alabama

11. Ole Miss

12. Georgia

13. Boise State

14. SMU

15. Texas A&M

16. Kansas State

17. Colorado

18. Washington State

19. Louisville

20. Clemson

21. South Carolina

22. LSU

23. Missouri

24. Army

25. Tulane

Salute to Veterans Bowl (Dec. 14): Miami (Ohio) vs. Louisiana
Frisco Bowl (Dec. 17): North Texas vs. Connecticut
Boca Raton Bowl (Dec. 18): Bowling Green vs. Marshall
New Orleans Bowl (Dec. 19): Western Kentucky vs. James Madison
Cure Bowl (Dec. 20): Ohio vs. Georgia Southern
Myrtle Beach Bowl (Dec. 23): East Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Dec. 23): Buffalo vs. Colorado State
Hawai'i Bowl (Dec. 24): Liberty vs. Fresno State
68Ventures (Dec. 26): Western Michigan vs. Arkansas State
New Mexico Bowl (Dec. 28): Jacksonville State vs. Texas State
Arizona Bowl (Dec. 28): Eastern Michigan vs. San Jose State
Bahamas Bowl (Jan. 4): Sam Houston vs. Northern Illinois

Trending Up: Bowling Green Falcons

At the halfway mark of the season, Bowling Green was 2-4 with understandable losses to Penn State and Texas A&M on its resume. Since then, the Falcons have toppled Kent State, Toledo and Central Michigan, the latter two of which came on the road.

Bowling Green now only needs one more win to become bowl-eligible, and it has a pair of home games and a trip to six-loss Ball State remaining.

Trending Down: Fresno State Bulldogs

Welcome to the danger zone. Over the last two weekends, Fresno State has fallen at home to Hawaii (now with six losses) and on the road against what was a one-win Air Force team. Suddenly, its 5-3 record is 5-5 with not-so-easy contests opposite Colorado State and UCLA on the docket.

Doable? Yes. Comfortable? Absolutely not.

LA Bowl (Dec. 18): UNLV vs. USC
Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 20): South Florida vs. Boston College
GameAbove Sports Bowl (Dec. 26): Toledo vs. Michigan State
Armed Forces Bowl (Dec. 27): Tulane vs. Baylor
Fenway Bowl (Dec. 28): Memphis vs. Virginia Tech
Military Bowl (Dec. 28): Navy vs. Duke
Independence Bowl (Dec. 28): Army vs. Cal

Trending Up: Cal Golden Bears

Four straight losses by a combined nine points had Cal sitting at a nerve-testing 3-4 in mid-October. However, the Bears blasted Oregon State and picked up a high-scoring win at Wake Forest in their last two games.

As long as Cal defeats Syracuse or Stanford—both games are at home—the Golden Bears will return to the postseason.

Trending Down: Virginia Tech Hokies

I'm not smacking a panic button here, but Virginia Tech has a slim margin for error. Following an upcoming open weekend, the 5-5 Hokies travel to Duke and host rival Virginia.

If they don't win at Duke, it's very plausible that both Virginia Tech and UVA will be 5-6 entering the regular-season finale.

Guaranteed Rate Bowl (Dec. 26): Nebraska vs. TCU
Birmingham Bowl (Dec. 27): North Carolina vs. Rutgers
Liberty Bowl (Dec. 27): West Virginia vs. Vanderbilt
Holiday Bowl (Dec. 27): Clemson vs. Colorado
Las Vegas Bowl (Dec. 27): Arizona State vs. Texas A&M
Pinstripe Bowl (Dec. 28): Pitt vs. Michigan
Pop-Tarts Bowl (Dec. 28): Syracuse vs. Iowa State
Alamo Bowl (Dec. 28): Kansas State vs. Washington State

Trending Up: West Virginia Mountaineers

Early setbacks to Penn State and Pitt silenced the "preseason sleeper" talk around West Virginia. October losses to Iowa State and Kansas State sent WVU to the fringe of bowl conversations.

However, the Mountaineers are back in a decent spot at 5-4 after wins at Arizona and Cincinnati. They still have Baylor, UCF and Texas Tech left to play.

Trending Down: Nebraska Cornhuskers

On the other hand, Nebraska is now 5-4 with a concerning outlook. Riding a three-game losing skid, the Cornhuskers travel to USC, host Wisconsin and play at Iowa to wrap up the regular season.

I think Nebraska will win one of those. I'm also far from confident about it.

Music City Bowl (Dec. 30): Wisconsin vs. Missouri
ReliaQuest Bowl (Dec. 31): Iowa vs. South Carolina
Sun Bowl (Dec. 31): Georgia Tech vs. Washington
Citrus Bowl (Dec. 31): Illinois vs. Tennessee
Texas Bowl (Dec. 31): Texas Tech vs. Arkansas
Gator Bowl (Jan. 2): SMU vs. LSU
First Responder (Jan. 3): North Carolina State vs. Cincinnati
Mayo Bowl (Jan. 3): Louisville vs. Minnesota

Trending Up: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Georgia Tech hadn't earned bowl eligibility in consecutive years since 2013-14. The Jackets are now headed to the postseason again thanks to their upset of Miami on Saturday, though.

Consistency is a key area of improvement, but head coach Brent Key has turned the program into a thorn for ranked opponents.

Trending Down: Oregon State Beavers

Long listed in this section, Oregon State is staring down a horrible finish to the campaign. The team's 4-1 start has devolved into a stretch of four consecutive losses, including two—Nevada and San Jose State—as a slim favorite.

Even if the 4-5 Beavers take down Air Force in Week 12, can they upset either Washington State or Boise State? They'll need one of those wins to make a bowl.

First-Round Byes

The five highest-ranked conference champions (*) will automatically earn a CFP berth, and the four highest-ranked of that group will be placed in the quarterfinals. While this quartet is assumed to be from the Power 4 (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC), that's not guaranteed.

No. 1: Oregon*, Big Ten champion in Rose Bowl
No. 2 Texas*, SEC champion in Sugar Bowl
No. 3: BYU*, Big 12 champion in Fiesta Bowl
No. 4: Miami*, ACC champion in Peach Bowl

First-Round Games

No. 12 Boise State* (MWC champion) at No. 5 Ohio State (winner to Peach Bowl)
No. 11 Georgia at No. 6 Notre Dame (winner to Fiesta Bowl)
No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 7 Penn State (winner to Sugar Bowl)
No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Alabama (winner to Rose Bowl)

Trending Up: Ole Miss Rebels

In a make-or-break moment for the 2024 roster, the Rebels delivered. They put together a stellar defensive performance and knocked off Georgia, securing a much-needed marquee win for their Playoff resume.

Ole Miss, which closes the season at Florida and home to rival Mississippi State, should be heavily favored in both games.

Trending Down: 2-Bid ACC

Heading into Week 11, the ACC's best-case scenario—in terms of guaranteed CFP spots—was a program like SMU or Clemson defeating an unbeaten Miami team in the conference title game. Miami likely would've ended somewhere in the Top 12 anyway.

However, the Hurricanes' loss at Georgia Tech—tethered with Ole Miss' win over UGA—has cast plenty of doubt on a two-bid ACC. The safe money is seeing only the ACC champion in the Playoff.