UFC 309: B/R Main Card Staff Predictions

The UFC makes its annual stop in New York City this Saturday, and as always, the promotion has put together a stacked card for the throngs of fans that will inevitably fill Madison Square Garden.

Headlining honors for UFC 309 will go to a heavyweight title fight, with undisputed champ Jon Jones defending his title against former champion Stipe Miocic. It's a fight between arguably the greatest fighter of all time, and perhaps the best heavyweight ever, but it's not without controversy, as many fans feel Jones should be defending his belt against interim champ Tom Aspinall instead. No matter where you stand it's a big one, and a contest we're likely to be talking about for years to come.

While the UFC's previous stops in NYC have featured as many as three title fights, Jones will be the only one defending a belt at UFC 309. Thankfully, the card still looks great.

In the co-main event, former lightweight champ Charles Oliveira will take on former Bellator star Michael Chandler, who finally accepted another opponent after waiting around for years for Conor McGregor.

Before that, unbeaten middleweight prospect Bo Nickal will face the toughest test of his career so far in battle-tested Scotsman Paul Craig, and Brazilians Viviane Araujo and Karine Silva will meet in a clash of top-15 flyweights.

The main card will be kicked off by a lightweight clash between Peru's James Llontop, and streaking Fight Nerds prospect Mauricio Ruffy from Brazil.

Here's how the B/R combat sports squad sees it all shaking out in The Big Apple.

Tom Taylor: I think Jon Jones is going to win this fight, but how he does it is going to depend on what version of Stipe Miocic shows up on Saturday night.

Most fans seem resigned to the fact that the 42-year-old is a shell of his former self, and that he'll be dominated by Jones en route to a TKO or submission loss. It's no surprise people see it that way, given that Miocic hasn't fought since he was blown away by Francis Ngannou in 2021.

Then again, it's not unusual whatsoever for heavyweights to remain competitive in their early 40s, and we're talking about Stipe Miocic here, not some middling veteran. In fact, it's possible his long layoff will actually help him perform better, as he's had time to give his body and brain a rest. If that's the way things are, then I think he will give Jones a very tough fight, and ultimately lose a close decision that will have Dana White gloating that this was, in fact, the fight to make all along.

Then again, the fans who believe Miocic is over the hill could be right, and if they are, it's going to be ugly for him.

I'm not sure how Miocic is going to look on Saturday, but pressed for a prediction, I've got to side with his doubters. In fact, I think he's far enough past his prime that Jones—who has never been known for his firepower—will score a clean KO.

Call it a head kick.

Prediction: Jones by KO, Rd. 2

Haris Kruskic: It's finally here. After a year-long delay, Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic will fight each other in the octagon this Saturday.

It's been nearly four years since Miocic last made the walk and nearly two since Jones did the same, leading to speculation from both fighters that this could be their last dance. Regardless of what happens after the fight, I imagine Jones will be able to take advantage of an inactive 42-year-old and continue solidifying himself as the greatest of all time.

How he'll do it though is an interesting question. Something tells me this fight may not be as entertaining as we'd hope. I foresee Jones pointing his way to a win on the scorecards.

Prediction: Jones by unanimous decision

Lyle Fitzsimmons: I'm not sure I'd feel strongly enough to wager the mortgage on it, but I have a strange feeling that the main event won't be as easy as it seems.

While I'm aware Miocic hasn't fought in a while, it's not like Jones has been making frequent trips up and down the octagon stairs himself. In fact, he's spent precisely 124 seconds in live combat across the last 57 months, which is actually less than half the time Miocic has logged.

And though the win over Ciryl Gane was certainly impressive, there's a fairly big gap between what challenge the Frenchman presented that night in Las Vegas and what the former two-time champion could do if he's even 75 percent of what he used to be.

Most intriguing to me? What happens if Miocic lands a hard strike. Says here that he will. And that if he does, we'll have an entirely different take on the "greatest of all time" debate.

Prediction: Miocic by TKO, Rd. 1

Tom Taylor: I'm not exactly drooling over this main event. I just feel like we know enough about Michael Chandler to know he's going to lose this fight. Yes, he nearly finished Oliveira the first time they met, but he couldn't seal the deal, and instead got finished himself. He also couldn't beat Dustin Poirier or Justin Gaethje. At this point, it's clear to me he's good enough to beat some top UFC lightweights, but not the truly elite—which is what made him an interesting opponent for Conor McGregor.

He couldn't beat Oliveira the first time they fought. I don't know why we'd expect anything different when he's over three years older and hasn't fought in two years.

I'm really not trying to be a hater, I just think it's obvious Do Bronx will blow him away.

Prediction: Oliveira by submission, Rd. 1

Haris Kruskic: From two inactive fighters to another, Michael Chandler returns to the octagon for the first time in two years after growing tired of waiting on Conor McGregor. He'll seek revenge against Charles Oliveira, who he lost a title fight to in 2021.

Chandler is without question one of the most entertaining fighters on the roster, but everyone except him knew waiting on the McGregor fight was a mistake. Two years later, he'll have to battle off ring rust against one of the most dangerous fighters in UFC history.

Also consider that Chandler struggles with grapplers and this is a recipe for disaster.

Prediction: Oliveira by submission, Rd. 1

Lyle Fitzsimmons: I'm probably the biggest Oliveira fan on the B/R staff and the affection hasn't waned much even as the Brazilian submission ace lost his belt and then dropped another decision to Arman Tsarukyan in an eliminator seven months ago.

But I'm not feeling the vibe this time.

I remember how close Chandler came to finishing the job the first time around and I'm feeling like the time off before this one may have done him some good. Not to the point where I think Islam Makhachev ought to be losing any sleep, but enough to think he lands a significant shot this time and is able to strong enough together to get a stop.

Prediction: Chandler by TKO, Rd. 1

Tom Taylor: This is probably the toughest fight of Bo Nickal's career so far if we're talking about the experience of his opponent. Paul Craig has been in there with the very best at light heavyweight and now middleweight and has beaten some very respectable names.

On paper, it's a pretty interesting fight.

For all his experience, Craig almost unfailingly wilts under pressure, which happens to Nickal's best weapon. However, we have also seen him pull off stunning, last-second submissions when all hope seems lost—most notably against Magomed Ankalaev—and there seems to be a reasonable chance he pull off something similarly preposterous against a relative newbie like Nickal.

What the heck. Give me the upset. Craig gets it done after getting spanked for most of the fight.

Prediction: Craig by submission, Rd. 3

Haris Kruskic: Almost every fiber of my being wants to say Paul Craig finds a submission like he often seems to do even in the worst situations, but Bo Nickal will be too much for him. The former collegiate wrestler's striking seems to be coming together, and I would hope he understands the danger Craig brings on the ground even when on his back.

Nickal adds an impressive knockout to his resume.

Prediction: Nickal by TKO, Rd. 1

Lyle Fitzsimmons: When I look at this one, I see the classic "get over" matchup for the young star against the recognizable but less-dangerous-than-he-was-at-his-peak veteran.

Nickal, to this point anyway, seems to be everything that the UFC brass says he is. He's won three straight fights in barely more than seven minutes of cage time and seems to be big enough to handle the moment given his past experience as an NCAA wrestling champion.

Craig will provide a compelling enough obstacle but wind up as only a high-profile victim.

Prediction: Nickal by TKO, Rd. 2

Tom Taylor: I'm a ticket-carrying passenger on the Karine Silva hype train. She has looked excellent in her first four UFC fights, and has a great record before she arrived in the promotion too. Her countrywoman Viviane Araujo is a slight step up from the likes of Ariane Lipski and Maryna Moroz, but this one still seems pretty straightforward to me. Silva will hit some takedowns, let loose her ground-and-pound, and eventually lock up another submission.

Prediction: Silva by submission, Rd. 2

Haris Kruskic: Karine Silva has looked impressive since joining the UFC. 4-0 with the company including three first-round submissions, she'll look for her first win over a ranked opponent against veteran Viviane Araujo.

Araujo is 6-5 in the UFC and just can't seem to find any consistency. I don't really like her odds against a younger, rising contender. She'll be resilient enough to force a decision though.

Prediction: Silva by unanimous decision

Lyle Fitzsimmons: One fighter has been in the octagon 11 times and exited the loser four times in the last six appearances, including a unanimous decision nine months ago. The other has climbed the UFC-branded stairs four times and won each time, including three in which the opponent failed to get through five minutes.

Younger and on a roll is good enough for me.

Prediction: Silva by unanimous decision

Tom Taylor: As a lifelong Dragon Ball fan, I hate to pick against a guy who fights with the nickname "Goku," but I've obviously got to go with Mauricio Ruffy in this one. His team is on top of the world right now, and I don't see them losing any momentum against a fighter like Llontop, who has lost his last two. The Peruvian seems to have a decent chin, having never been stopped by strikes before, but Ruffy has knocked out all 10 of the men he's beaten to date. He'll make it 11 in NYC.

Prediction: Ruffy by TKO, Rd. 2

Haris Kruskic: In Mauricio Ruffy's 11 fights, none of them have gone past the second round.

The UFC knows exactly what they're doing by having him open the main card against James Llontop, who's taking this fight on two weeks' notice after losing his first two UFC bouts.

This is lined up for a devastating Ruffy finish.

Prediction: Ruffy by KO, Rd. 1

Lyle Fitzsimmons: Y'all can come up with whatever rationale you like for picking an upset in Llontop's case or going with the chalk when it comes to Ruffy.

I'll keep it simple. Ruffy is a member of the "Fighting Nerds" team and there's probably no hotter unit in the sport than the Brazilian bunch with the taped-frame glasses.

Prediction: Ruffy by TKO, Rd. 1