Week 11 NFL Survivor Pool Tips: Best Picks and Strategies to Stay Alive

The NFL strives for parity, and the league saw plenty of it in Week 10. While there were no major upsets, a few underdogs did win, and nine games were decided by one score.

Having a large swath of evenly-matched teams leads to exciting games, but it can also make things incredibly difficult for those in survivor pools. The Kansas City Chiefs remain the league's only undefeated team, and even they needed a last-second blocked field goal to maintain their unblemished record.

Of course, most survivor participants have probably already used the Chiefs by now. Those still alive in Week 11 are probably running short on viable options, and the Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are all headed to their byes.

Let's dive into a few survivor tips and top picks for Week 11, using the early odds as a guide.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

If you've followed our survivor advice at all this year, you know that we're not a fan of divisional matchups or short-week games. Divisional rivals are familiar foes and can often exploit flaws that other teams may miss.

This may explain why the Cincinnati Bengals have played their best football against the Baltimore Ravens in 2024.

Short-week games are often sloppy because of the limited practice time available. Combine the two factors, and anything can be expected.

This is why we're steering away from Thursday's game between the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles (-3.5) are at home and have been rolling since their 5 bye. Washington is a legitimate contender, though, and can never be counted out as long as rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is healthy.

Believe it or not, we'd also be cautious of picking the Minnesota Vikings (-6) against the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee hasn't been particularly good, but it does have a solid defense and will have home-field advantage.

Minnesota, meanwhile, has watched quarterback Sam Darnold commit six turnovers over the last two weeks. Because of his miscues, the Vikings barely scraped by Mac Jones and the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.

The Cleveland Browns and New Orleans Saints (-1) game is another to avoid. New Orleans seemed to be reenergized by interim coach Darren Rizzi in Week 10 and upset the rival Atlanta Falcons.

However, the Browns are unfamiliar opponents who are coming out of the bye and have had two weeks to prepare. Neither team has been trustworthy in 2024, and we're not trusting either in Week 11.

The Chiefs and Buffalo Bills (-2.5) game? We're not touching that either. Kansas City keeps narrowly escaping defeat, and the Bills have the talent necessary to hand the Chiefs their first loss of the season—Josh Allen is also 3-1 against Patrick Mahomes in the regular season.

At this point, though, it feels like the only team that can beat Kansas City is Kansas City.

Those who haven't picked the Chiefs or Bills yet this season have more advantageous opportunities to do so. Buffalo will finish the season against the Patriots (twice) and the Jets—yes, those are divisional games, but neither team has been good this season.

The Chiefs still have games against the Carolina Panthers (Week 12), Las Vegas Raiders (Week 13) and Cleveland (Week 15).

Look, the Jaguars are better than their 2-8 record might indicate. Over the last three weeks, they've lost by five to Minnesota, by four to Philadelphia and by three to the Green Bay Packers.

Jacksonville can play competitively against good teams. Of course, they didn't have starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence (AC joint injury) against the Vikings and may not have him this week.

"It's hard to tell right now. We've still got a couple of days. I don't have any definite answers right now," head coach Doug Pederson said, per John Shipley of SI.com.

Even if the Jags put up a fight, the Detroit Lions should come through. They survived a five-interception performance by Jared Goff on Sunday night and still outlasted a good Houston Texans team.

Against Jacksonville's 20th-ranked run defense, Detroit should be able to pound the ball with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery while limiting the potential for turnovers.

Detroit's biggest vulnerability has been its pass defense, and if Jones is under center, Jacksonville will have a tough time taking advantage of it.

It feels weird to say, but it's impossible to truly trust the Texans right now. Their offensive line is a total liability, and injuries at receiver have compounded the issue for quarterback C.J. Stroud.

The second-year signal-caller hasn't been as efficient or as decisive as he was as a rookie. Since facing the Patriots in Week 6, it's been a slog for Houston. The Texans lost to the Packers, outlasted the Indianapolis Colts by a field goal, lost to the Jets and blew a 23-7 halftime lead to Detroit.

Of course, the Dallas Cowboys have been flat-out bad this season. Their defense is in shambles, and quarterback Dak Prescott is on injured reserve with a hamstring injury.

Houston is a heavy road favorite (-7.5) for a reason. The Texans may be average, but Dallas is below average. The one concern for Houston is its offensive line and a matchup with Micah Parsons and the Cowboys' pass rush.

However, the Texans should be able to ride Joe Mixon and the ground game against Dallas' 31st-ranked run defense and escape with a victory.

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