Week 11 NFL Picks: Early Odds to Exploit for Best Over/Under Box Score Bets

Fans who enjoy tightly contested games have gotten plenty of them during the 2024 NFL season. Week 10 alone provided nine one-score games and several thrilling finishes.

The week kicked off with an offensive track meet between the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals. It was decided by a failed two-point try near the end of regulation. On Sunday night, the Detroit Lions mounted an epic comeback against the Houston Texans and won with a walk-off field goal.

The Kansas City Chiefs blocked a potential walk-off field goal to preserve their undefeated record.

While the outcomes are what truly matter, many of these exciting finishes were sparked by great individual performances. Fans so inclined, of course, can wager on individual performances and other box-score over/unders.

While most player props won't be available until later in the week, we've identified a few box-score bets to consider early in Week 11.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Week 11 will kick off with an exciting NFC East showdown between the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles. Washington has been one of this year's biggest surprises, thanks to rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. The Eagles, meanwhile, have won five straight since their Week 5 bye.

Philadelphia's defense, in particular, has shown impressive growth since the bye. The Eagles now rank first in net yards per pass attempt allowed and second in passing yards allowed.

However, the Eagles offense has also been better since getting A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith back in the lineup. Washington will need to rely on Daniels to keep pace.

Daniels, in turn, will need to rely on top receiver Terry McLaurin, who is -130 (bet $130 to win $100) to reach the over in this receptions prop. McLaurin caught five passes for 113 yards against a good Pittsburgh Steelers defense in Week 10. He should have similar production this week.

While the Commanders may need a heroic performance from their quarterback to win on Thursday, the Eagles may not. Jalen Hurts may do some special things, but this feels like a game in which Saquon Barkley can take over.

Barkley has been a huge addition to the Eagles offense, and he's served as its centerpiece at times. He's topped 100 rushing yards in three of the last four games, though he only logged 14 carries for 66 yards against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday.

Of course, the Eagles didn't need Barkley to do much after breaking the game open in the third quarter. Kenneth Gainwell and rookie Will Shipley took most of the late carries after the game was in hand.

Philadelphia is unlikely to put Washington away early, if at all, which should make a heavy workload for Barkley necessary.

Barkley is -115 to hit the over on this prop, and he should. The Commanders rank 29th in yards per carry allowed this season (4.9).

The Minnesota Vikings and Tennessee Titans game will feature one of the lowest points over/unders of Week 11. It's not hard to see why.

Tennessee has a stout defense and an offense that has been wildly inconsistent. Minnesota usually has a great offense, but miscues by quarterback Sam Darnold have started to sting. In Week 10, Darnold threw three interceptions in or near the end zone that took points off the board.

The Vikings ended up winning a 12-7 contest against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Still, the over (-110) feels favorable here because the line is just too low. Titans quarterback Will Levis played his first clean game of 2024 against a terrific Los Angeles Chargers defense on Sunday and helped produce 17 points.

We'll trust that Darnold limits his mistakes after committing six turnovers in two games. That should bring Minnesota closer to its 24.5 point-per-game season average—the last time we checked, Justin Jefferson was still on the roster.

If the Titans and Chargers can top 40 points, the Titans and Vikings can do the same.

The points total over/under (-110) is also fairly low for the Denver Broncos and Atlanta Falcons matchup. In this case, it's probably more warranted.

Denver's defense is morphing into an elite unit and just held the vaunted Chiefs to 16 points. While rookie quarterback Bo Nix and the Broncos offense have also taken some positive strides, this is a team that wants to win ugly.

Only one of Denver's five victories this season has featured more than 44 total points.

The Falcons, meanwhile, would prefer to engage in an offensive game. Kirk Cousins, Drake London, Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts form the foundation of a dangerous offense. Atlanta's defense, however, has been inconsistent and lacks a pass rush.

The problem for Atlanta is that finding a ground game against Denver's seventh-ranked run defense will be difficult. This will put a lot of pressure on Cousins, who simply isn't mobile enough to consistently avoid an aggressive pass rush.

Only one team can dictate how this game unfolds. We'll back the home team and a low-scoring contest.

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