Bowl Projections 2024: Playoff Predictions, CFP Bracket Picture Heading into Week 12

The Big Ten and the SEC are both loaded with top college football programs, and it has been expected that they'd each be well represented in the first 12-team College Football Playoff taking place this season. However, it's the former that is dominating the CFP rankings.

The latest edition of the rankings were released Tuesday night, with four Big Ten teams in the top five. No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 4 Penn State and No. 5 Indiana are all building strong cases to reach the CFP, while No. 3 Texas (SEC) is the lone non-Big Ten team that high in the rankings.

A lot can change, though, with three weeks to go in the regular season, then conference championships still to be played. But it's a guarantee that five conference champs will be heading to the College Football Playoff, with four of those teams earning first-round byes.

Here's a look at the CFP landscape heading into Week 12 of the season.

Byes: No. 1 Oregon (10-0, 7-0 in Big Ten), No. 2 Texas (8-1, 4-1 in SEC), No. 3 BYU (9-0, 6-0 in Big 12), No. 4 Miami (9-1, 5-1 in ACC)

No. 5 Ohio State (8-1, 5-1 in Big Ten) vs. No. 12 Boise State (8-1, 5-0 in Mountain West)

No. 6 Penn State (8-1, 5-1 in Big Ten) vs. No. 11 Ole Miss (8-2, 4-2 in SEC)

No. 7 Indiana (10-0, 7-0 in Big Ten) vs. No. 10 Alabama (7-2, 4-2 in SEC)

No. 8 Tennessee (8-1, 5-1 in SEC) vs. No. 9 Notre Dame (8-1)

Oregon again sits atop the CFP rankings, and it should remain there unless it loses. But it's unlikely the Ducks are defeated before the end of the regular season, as their final two matchups are at Wisconsin (Saturday) and vs. Washington (Nov. 30).

The No. 1 seed could be on the line in the Big Ten Championship Game, which will likely feature a rematch between Oregon and Ohio State. (The Ducks beat the Buckeyes 32-31 on Oct. 12.) However, Penn State and Indiana remain in the mix.

With Georgia's loss at Ole Miss this past Saturday, Texas has reemerged as the front-runner in the SEC. The Longhorns lost 30-15 to the Bulldogs on Oct. 19, but that's their only defeat of the season. Meanwhile, Georgia has a pair of losses, having previously fallen at Alabama.

So Texas controls its own destiny, but it still has a tough test coming in the regular season, which it will close out with a road matchup at Texas A&M. The Aggies are currently outside of the CFP bubble, though they can win their way into the mix.

BYU nearly suffered its first loss of the season this past Saturday, but Will Ferrin's go-ahead 44-yard field goal with 3 seconds to go lifted the Cougars to a 22-21 win at Utah. BYU should roll into the Big 12 Championship Game, as its final three regular-season games will be vs. Kansas (Saturday), at Arizona State (Nov. 23) and vs. Houston (Nov. 30).

After opening the season with nine consecutive wins, Miami lost 28-23 at Georgia Tech this past Saturday. The Hurricanes are in a good position to rebound in their two remaining games (vs. Wake Forest on Nov. 23 and at Syracuse on Nov. 30), so they could still work their way into the ACC Championship Game while battling with SMU and Clemson.

Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana are all in prime positions to earn at-large bids, assuming that none of the three overtakes Oregon and wins the Big Ten title. It would be a bit of a surprise if all four of these schools don't reach the CFP at this point.

However, the matchup between the Buckeyes and the Hoosiers on Nov. 23 could have a large impact on the Playoff picture. It will be an opportunity for Indiana to prove it's deserving of a berth after having a fairly light schedule so far.

As of now, Tennessee, Alabama and Ole Miss are the SEC schools projected to reach the CFP in addition to Texas. Georgia is on the outside looking in following its latest loss.

But on Saturday, the Bulldogs are set to host the Vols in a crucial SEC clash. It'll be an opportunity for Georgia to win its way back into a Playoff position. However, a loss could eliminate the Bulldogs from the CFP mix for good.

Notre Dame has reeled off seven straight wins to improve to 8-1, and it should remain in a good spot as long as it continues to win. The Fighting Irish close out the regular season with matchups vs. Virginia (Saturday), vs. Army (Nov. 23) and at USC (Nov. 30).

The front-runner to be the fifth conference champion in the CFP bracket continues to be Boise State, which sits atop the Mountain West. The Broncos' three remaining regular-season contests are at San Jose State (Saturday), at Wyoming (Nov. 23) and vs. Oregon State (Nov. 29).