Re-Ranking the Top Hart Trophy Candidates For NHL MVP After 1 Month

If this season's Hart Trophy race is anything like it has been the past few years, we know it's coming down to the wire. As the skill level in the NHL grows, the upper echelon of elite players gets even more competitive.

This is an absolute joy for hockey fans. It means they're treated to competitive games every night, as the best of the best know each individual performance matters in close trophy races.

It also means the final Hart Trophy push at the end of the regular season could look pretty different than the field one month in. It even looks significantly different than it did on opening night.

Still, some players have made such a strong case for contention already that it's hard to imagine they're going to fall out of the race. Meanwhile, some regular contenders will have to pick up serious ground to enter the conversation.

One month in, what is the Hart Trophy field looking like? Let's rank the current contenders. Please keep in mind that I put a lot of weight in the "most valuable to their team" interpretation of the trophy. If you've got another elite teammate contributing a ton to team success, this makes winning more difficult (e.g. Jack Eichel and Mark Stone). These "problems" tend to fix themselves over a sample size of months, but remember we're taking a snapshot of the first month of the season specifically.

OK, enough with the disclaimers. Are you ready to rank Hart Trophy contending performances from the first month of the 2024-25 season?

No Hart Trophy conversation is complete without Connor McDavid, who has been a finalist six times in 10 seasons, winning the trophy on three occasions.

He became the fourth-fastest player to reach 1,000 points Thursday night, but his road to the 2024-25 Hart looks steeper than it has in the past after the first month of the season.

It wasn't his fault he missed three games due to a left ankle injury, but the trophy is tougher to win than ever with so much skill and talent in the league, and the past few winners have gone to the wire. On top of the injury, he's off to the worst start of his career, with six goals and 19 points in 14 games.

As impressive as it is in itself that averaging more than a point per game is McDavid's "worst" start, the award is meant to answer this question: Who was the most valuable player to his team this regular season?

McDavid tends to ramp it up and make things interesting later in the season, but right now, that player isn't him. Perhaps it's the year for Oilers teammate Leon Draisaitl, who's got 12 goals and 22 points in 17 games, to make his Hart case.

How else do I describe this, other than: "Connor Hellebuyck has always rocked, is still rocking, and will continue to rock."

Goalies deserve more love in the Hart Trophy conversation, and he and Igor Shesterkin are the top two deserving right now.

The Jets are not the fastest team in NHL history to 15 wins without Hellebuyck. He's started for 12 of those victories, with a league-best 1.92 goals against average and another league best .934 save percentage. He's making history and deserves an honest look for the Hart.

As good as the Carolina Hurricanes have been for the better part of the decade, it's rare to see an individual player from the team anywhere near the top of the league in scoring.

This year, the year when the 'Canes were expected to take a big step back due to roster turnover, Martin Necas has broken out and stepped up.

He's currently tied for third in scoring leaguewide with nine goals and 25 points in 15 games. It might be a long shot considering the quality and depth of this season's budding Hart race, but he deserves to be in the conversation, especially when context helps his case with where the rest of the roster is at.

It's unfortunate that both Matthew Tkachuk and Aleksander Barkov both missed some time at the beginning of the season, but it gave Sam Reinhart an opportunity to prove what we should all know by now: His 58-goal 2023-24 season was not a fluke.

Further, he is not being carried by his teammates—no matter how stacked the Panthers are.

Reinhart has been a constant force through the Panthers' dominant start to the season. He's leading the league with 13 goals, with sole ownership of the No. 1 spot. He's got 25 points in 17 games, a tie for No. 3 in points leaguewide.

He's consistent, arguably the most crucial skater to the Panthers' success (others like Barkov are right up there, but they needed someone like Reinhart to complete the team), and he is right back at it this season.

Nikita Kucherov's finesse is one of the most consistent things fans are treated to year after year. It's no different this year, especially with Jake Guentzel now on his line.

The Russian, 31, is averaging 1.6 points per game, with 11 goals and 24 points in 15 games. He's played two fewer games than the five players who have scored either 13 or 12 goals, so keep that in mind if these rankings change next month.

The Lightning have had a bit of a wonky start, but Thursday night's statement 4-1 win over the Jets featured a big Kucherov assist.

As Tampa Bay looks to gain more consistency, and with Brayden Point out of the lineup, look for Kucherov to step up and make his Hart case as well.

Kucherov and MacKinnon are often neck-and-neck in this race for a reason: They're both the best of the best at their playing style, but their playing styles are different, so it comes down to what each individual voter values.

Right now, MacKinnon's doing his thing (competitiveness, racking up points) just slightly better than Kucherov is doing his thing (finesse, racking up goals), but this can change on a day-to-day basis.

MacKinnon (and Cale Makar, who is also putting up ridiculous numbers) has willed the Avalanche back from the brink with 1.94 points per game. He's leading the league with 33 points in 17 games, which is three more than the second-highest scorer.

MacKinnon's role is arguably more important than Kucherov's right now because of the position the Avalanche were in compared to where they are now, and what he's done to correct course.

However, it's not Kucherov's fault he finds himself on one of the best lines in the league, so I'm not opposed to any arguments that he has a slight edge on MacKinnon, either.

Plus, with Brayden Point out, Kucherov really gets to make his individual case for the trophy.

Minnesota Wild fans got pretty upset when I made what I thought was a positive prediction over the summer that their beloved 100-plus point producer of a winger Kirill Kaprizov would become a superstar this year.

Perhaps I should've been more specific, because I've loved watching Kaprizov play (almost) since he entered the league in 2020. It's just that my standards for "NHL superstar" are incredibly high, and even the jump from star to superstar is huge.

To me, an NHL superstar has to have won the Hart or at least been named a finalist. He has to have an iconic play or two, or a few signature playoff moments. He has to have done at least one thing I didn't know someone was capable of doing (McDavid's got peerless speed, MacKinnon's got Cup-winning competitiveness, Matthew Tkachuk can trigger Brad Marchand). There's also a bit of a "time in the league" factor and name recognition, and it's not Kaprizov's fault he's only been in the league a few years, the first of which was unusual due to the pandemic.

Anyway, if the NHL season ended today, Kaprizov would be the player providing the most value to his team. He's got 10 goals, 30 points and a plus-16 in 16 games. He's second in points leaguewide, and he has three more goals than No. 1 in points (MacKinnon).

He's pacing the Wild in a crucial year when they're finally rising above the typical mediocrity, and he's doing superstar stuff along the way.

Dare I say he's doing Kucherov's thing better than Kucherov?