NFL Playoff Picture 2024-25: Bracket Clinching and Elimination Scenarios for Week 13

Thanksgiving week marks the first time during the NFL season when it really makes sense to dive into the playoff picture.

There are still six weeks remaining in the regular season, and many things will change during that period, but the true Super Bowl contenders in both the AFC and NFC have started to separate themselves from the rest of the pack.

Three teams can clinch a playoff berth as soon as this week, while four others could be eliminated from the postseason picture.

Here are the updated standings, as well as clinching and elimination scenarios for Week 13.

AFC Standings

Division Leaders

1. Kansas City Chiefs (10-1; lead AFC West)

2. Buffalo Bills (9-2; lead AFC East)

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3; lead AFC North)

4. Houston Texans (7-5; lead AFC South)

Wild-Card Race

5. Baltimore Ravens (8-4)

6. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)

7. Denver Broncos (7-5)

8. Miami Dolphins (5-6)

9. Indianapolis Colts (5-7)

10. Cincinnati Bengals (4-7)

11. Cleveland Browns (3-8)

12. New York Jets (3-8)

13. Tennessee Titans (3-8)

14. New England Patriots (3-9)

15. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9)

16. Las Vegas Raiders (2-9)

NFC Standings

Division Leaders

1. Detroit Lions (10-1; lead NFC North)

2. Philadelphia Eagles (9-2; lead NFC East)

3. Seattle Seahawks (6-5; lead NFC West)

4. Atlanta Falcons (6-5; lead NFC South)

Wild-Card Race

5. Minnesota Vikings (9-2)

6. Green Bay Packers (8-3)

7. Washington Commanders (7-5)

8. Arizona Cardinals (6-5)

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6)

10 Los Angeles Rams (5-6)

11. San Francisco 49ers (5-6)

12. New Orleans Saints (4-7)

13. Chicago Bears (4-7)

14. Dallas Cowboys (4-7)

15. Carolina Panthers (3-8)

16. New York Giants (2-9)

Buffalo Bills Clinch AFC East with Win and Dolphins Loss

The Bills have the simplest clinching scenario of the teams that can punch their ticket in Week 13. It starts Thursday when the Miami Dolphins travel to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers.

If the Dolphins lose, the Bills will be able to lock up the AFC East for the fifth consecutive year on Sunday night if they can defeat the San Francisco 49ers.

Coming into the season, a 49ers-Bills game felt like a potential Super Bowl preview. Now, though, we don't even know what the Niners are going to look like at kickoff.

San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan said on Monday that Brock Purdy, who missed Sunday's loss to the Packers with a shoulder injury, did some light throwing without any issues. The next step for Purdy will be when the team practices for the first time on Wednesday.

The Niners also played Sunday's game without Nick Bosa and Trent Williams. They got pushed around by the Packers in a 38-10 defeat. The status for Bosa and Williams in Week 13 will likely be determined later in the week as they go through practice.

Buffalo is cruising with six straight wins coming out of the Week 12 bye. The last time we saw the Bills, they handed the Kansas City Chiefs their first loss of the season on Nov. 17.

There's little doubt the Bills are going to win the AFC East. They would have to lose out and Miami would have to win out to not clinch the division title.

Kansas City Chiefs Clinch Playoff Berth Scenarios

• KC win over Raiders AND Dolphins loss/tie
• or KC tie vs. Raiders AND Dolphins loss
• or KC win over Raiders AND Broncos loss
• or KC win over Raiders AND Broncos tie AND Chargers loss

Despite having the best record in the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs are still at least another week away from being able to clinch the AFC West because of the surprising performances from the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos this season.

The Chiefs can clinch a playoff berth for the 10th consecutive year as soon as Friday. If the Dolphins lose to the Packers in prime time on Thanksgiving, they will just have to beat the Las Vegas Raiders at Arrowhead Stadium on Black Friday.

You can't rule anything out because the Raiders did pull off an upset in Kansas City last year on Christmas Day in a game that Aidan O'Connell finished 9-of-21 for 62 yards. O'Connell will get the start in Friday's matchup after Gardner Minshew II suffered a season-ending broken collarbone in a Week 12 loss to the Broncos.

The main reason the Chiefs lost last year was Zamir White ran for 145 yards on 22 carries. He has a total of 183 rushing yards on 65 carries in eight games this season.

There is also a scenario where the Chiefs can clinch even if the Dolphins beat the Packers. They would still have to defeat the Raiders, then hope the Broncos get upset by the Cleveland Browns in Denver on Monday night.

The Browns are coming off a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 12, so another upset victory can't be ruled out.

There are other scenarios in which the Chiefs can clinch a playoff berth involving ties, but it's impossible to predict tie games and there's no reason to think about that unless it happens.

Detroit Lions Clinch Playoff Berth Scenarios

• Lions win vs. Bears AND 49ers loss/tie AND Seahawks loss AND Cardinals loss/tie AND Buccaneers loss/tie
• or Lions win vs. Bears AND 49ers loss/tie AND Seahawks tie AND Cardinals loss AND Buccaneers loss/tie
• or Lions win vs. Bears AND 49ers loss/tie AND Seahawks loss AND Cardinals loss/tie AND Falcons loss AND Commanders loss/tie
• or Lions win vs. Bears AND 49ers loss/tie AND Seahawks tie AND Cardinals loss AND Falcons loss AND Commanders loss/tie
• or Lions win vs. Bears AND 49ers loss/tie AND Seahawks loss AND Cardinals loss/tie AND Falcons tie AND Commanders loss
• or Lions win vs. Bears AND 49ers loss/tie AND Seahawks tie AND Cardinals loss AND Falcons tie AND Commanders loss
• or Lions tie vs. Bears AND 49ers loss AND Seahawks tie AND Cardinals loss AND Buccaneers loss AND Packers win (plus additional strength of victory scenarios)

There may not be a practical scenario in which the Lions clinch their playoff spot this week, but it's not out of the question.

Everything starts on Thanksgiving Day when the Lions host the Chicago Bears. If they win that game, they will be glued to their television sets on Sunday waiting to see the results from several different games.

The simplest scenario for the Lions to become the first NFC team in the playoff field would be three NFC West teams (Seahawks, Cardinals, 49ers) and Buccaneers all lose.

Based on the matchups for all four teams this weekend, that's not an impossibility. The 49ers will almost certainly go into Buffalo as an underdog against the Bills. The Cardinals are playing the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium.

The Buccaneers have to play the Carolina Panthers, who suddenly have some positive momentum after playing a close game against the Chiefs on Sunday. The Seahawks travel to MetLife Stadium to play the New York Jets.

New York Giants Elimination Scenarios

• Giants loss vs. Cowboys
• or Giants tie vs. Cowboys AND Commanders win/tie
• or Packers win/tie AND Commanders win

As the Giants focus on the 2025 draft and potentially securing the No. 1 overall pick, their official elimination from playoff contention could happen as soon as Thursday with a loss to the Dallas Cowboys.

Even if the Giants win, there is a scenario in which they are eliminated if the Packers win or tie against the Miami Dolphins and Washington Commanders beat the Tennessee Titans.

The Giants are in a three-way tie with the Raiders and Jacksonville Jaguars for the worst record in the NFL. They are starting Tommy DeVito at quarterback. There's no reason to focus on anything but 2025 at this point for the Giants.

New England Patriots Elimination Scenarios

• Patriots loss vs. Colts AND Chargers win/tie AND Broncos win/tie
• or Patriots loss vs. Colts AND Chargers win/tie AND Texans win/tie
• or Patriots loss vs. Colts AND Chargers win/tie AND Dolphins win
• or Patriots tie vs. Colts AND Chargers win AND Broncos win

Despite having a 3-9 record, things are going well for the Patriots when you look at their long-term future. Drake Maye looks very much like the quarterback the organization hoped he could be when it selected him No. 3 overall.

Even though the Patriots are on the brink of missing the playoffs for the fourth time in five seasons since Tom Brady left, this is still a very optimistic time for the franchise.

Maye is still gaining valuable game reps that will set him up well for 2025. The Patriots currently own the No. 4 pick in next year's draft, which could allow them to add a high-impact player at either wide receiver or offensive tackle to help their young quarterback.

Jacksonville Jaguars Elimination Scenarios

• Jaguars loss vs. Texans AND Chargers win/tie AND Broncos win/tie
• or Jaguars tie vs. Texans AND Chargers win AND Broncos win

The Jaguars are in a similar position to that of the Giants, except they have already paid Trevor Lawrence like he is a franchise quarterback. He is exponentially better than anyone the Giants have used at the position this season, but he hasn't elevated the roster around him like anyone hoped after their playoff run in 2022.

While there is still time for Lawrence to prove his bona fides as a star-level player, the Jaguars have to figure out everything else around him to let him reach that ceiling. It starts with their front office and head coach.

There has already been a lot of speculation about Doug Pederson's future in Jacksonville. The organization has yet to make a move in-season, which seems to indicate he will at least finish out the year.

Bill Belichick and the Jaguars seem to have some level of mutual interest if Pederson gets fired. Would he really be able to improve things if Trent Baalke were to remain general manager? Would Belichick even take the job if he didn't get control of the roster?

Given how poorly things went, particularly on offense, in Belichick's final two years in New England, should he have control over assembling a roster?

These are all huge questions that the Jaguars need to be asking themselves if they decide to bring the future Hall of Famer on board.

Las Vegas Raiders Elimination Scenarios

• Raiders loss vs. Chiefs
• or Raiders tie vs. Chiefs AND Chargers win/tie AND Broncos win/tie

Of the four teams that can be officially eliminated from the playoffs, the Raiders have the simplest path if they lose to the Chiefs.

This season has been nothing short of a disaster in Las Vegas. The team hoped the good vibes brought on by Antonio Pierce when he was the interim coach last season would carry over to 2024 after he got the full-time job.

Instead, the Raiders have looked exactly like the team they were with Josh McDaniels. They are tied for the worst record in the NFL. They have lost seven consecutive games, the longest active streak in the league. Their last win was on Sept. 29 against the Cleveland Browns.