Week 13 NFL Picks: Early Odds to Exploit for Best Over/Under Box Score Bets
Kristopher Knox@@kris_knoxWeek 13 NFL Picks: Early Odds to Exploit for Best Over/Under Box Score Bets

Thanksgiving week usually delivers one of the best weeks of the NFL season to football fans. We'll have a full 16-game slate spread over four days and no shortage of meaningful matchups.
The typical three-game Thanksgiving slate will be followed by a Black Friday game between the Las Vegas Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs. While the Raiders are out of the playoff race, the Chiefs have had a habit of making games very interesting.
With exciting finishes likely on the menu and plenty of implications for tight playoff races, fans will have many reasons to watch in Week 13. Of course, those so inclined can make things a little more interesting with player props and box-score bets.
Here, you'll find a look at a few plays to consider based on the early lines.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Caleb Williams Over 229.5 Passing Yards

Thursday's game between the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears should be fun. Detroit is clearly the better team—it shares the league's best record with Kansas City—but divisional games on Thanksgiving are great.
Plus, the Bears bring rookie quarterback and No. 1 overall draft pick Caleb Williams to the proverbial table. Williams has had his ups and downs this year, but he's been much more efficient since Chicago fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. That's why the Bears can make this interesting and why we like the over on Williams' passing prop.
The USC product is -105 (bet $105 to win $100) to hit the over, and he should. Detroit's secondary is improving, but it's still not great. It may also be without starting cornerbacks Carlton Davis, who exited Week 12 with a knee injury and Quinyon Mitchell (groin) who missed Week 12.
Williams has thrown for at least 230 yards in each of his last two games and he should do so against Detroit as well.
Cooper Rush Over 200.5 Passing Yards

That's right, we're recommending a Cooper Rush passing prop. How else are fans going to get excited about Thursday's matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants?
Neither team is going to make the playoffs this year, and both have been bad more often than not. Dallas has at least shown some fight recently, though, while New York is obviously tanking for a better draft pick.
Quarterback Tommy DeVito isn't going to help New York win games, and last week's 30-7 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers showcased just how lifeless the Giants are.
Expect the Cowboys to capitalize by trying to run up the score in front of a national audience. That bodes well for Rush, who is -115 to hit the over here. Dallas' run game still isn't great, and the offense still has CeeDee Lamb to generate big plays.
Rush has thrown for over 240 yards in each of his last two games.
Rico Dowdle Over 65.5 Rushing Yards

While Dallas' rushing attack has been one of the worst in the NFL this season—it ranks 28th in yards per carry and 31st in total yards—we still like this rushing prop for Rico Dowdle at -120.
Dowdle isn't a top-tier running back by any means, but he's established himself as the best back on Dallas' roster. The Cowboys are finally starting to use him accordingly. The 26-year-old logged 19 carries in last week's win over the Washington Commanders and finished with 86 rushing yards and 12 receiving yards.
The Cowboys should give Dowdle a similar workload in this game. They'll likely use Rush and the passing game to gain chunk yards early and then close out the game late on the ground. Dowdle should take full advantage of the carries given to him.
New York ranks dead last in yards per carry allowed this season.
Jaylen Waddle Over 46.5 Receiving Yards

It's been a disappointing season overall for Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle. However, he finally broke out with a 144-yard game against the New England Patriots in Week 12.
Waddle probably won't replicate that performance against the Green Bay Packers on Thursday night. Green Bay ranks a solid 11th in passing yards allowed this season.
However, Waddle can do enough to hit the over on this receiving prop (-115). Tua Tagovailoa is an elite distributor, and he knows how to put his pass-catchers in successful situations. The Packers will likely divert a lot of attention to slowing Tyreek Hill, which will open things up for his teammates.
Hill will likely draw the coverage matchup with standout Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander—if Alexander is able to return after missing Week 12 with a knee injury.
This is far from an egregious over/under, and Waddle has topped 50 yards in two of his last three games.
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