College Football Playoff Projections: Week 15 Rankings and Bowl Forecast

That sound you hear is the shattering of championship dreams.

Conference titles will be decided this weekend, but the College Football Playoff selection committee's second-to-last rankings have dashed the hopes of several teams on the bubble.

Miami's loss to Syracuse, controversial as it may be, has officially dropped the 10-2 Hurricanes behind 9-3 Alabama.

As a result, Miami will not be in the Playoff. Neither will South Carolina, which did not surpass Bama or Ole Miss despite a win at Clemson. Both of those programs beat South Carolina earlier this season.

I was incorrect about one thing, though. It seemed a few eligible programs would not receive a bowl invitation, but the nation's 16 five-win teams posted a 5-11 record last weekend. The campaign ended with exactly 82 bowl-eligible teams, perfectly filling every postseason slot.

Two bowl matchups are official, so those reports and/or formal announcements are on the immediate horizon.

1. Oregon

2. Texas

3. Penn State

4. Notre Dame

5. Georgia

6. Ohio State

7. Tennessee

8. SMU

9. Indiana

10. Boise State

11. Alabama

12. Miami

13. Ole Miss

14. South Carolina

15. Arizona State

16. Iowa State

17. Clemson

18. BYU

19. Missouri

20. UNLV

21. Illinois

22. Syracuse

23. Colorado

24. Army

25. Memphis

*Salute to Veterans Bowl (Dec. 14): Western Michigan vs. South Alabama
Frisco Bowl (Dec. 17): North Texas vs. Texas State
Boca Raton Bowl (Dec. 18): Toledo vs. Connecticut
New Orleans Bowl (Dec. 19): Western Kentucky vs. Marshall
Cure Bowl (Dec. 20): Liberty vs. Georgia Southern
Myrtle Beach Bowl (Dec. 23): East Carolina vs. James Madison
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Dec. 23): Buffalo vs. Colorado State
*Hawai'i Bowl (Dec. 24): South Florida vs. San Jose State
GameAbove Sports Bowl (Dec. 26): Miami (Ohio) vs. Louisiana
68Ventures (Dec. 26): Jacksonville State vs. Arkansas State
New Mexico Bowl (Dec. 28): Bowling Green vs. Coastal Carolina
Arizona Bowl (Dec. 28): Ohio vs. Fresno State
Bahamas Bowl (Jan. 4): Sam Houston vs. Northern Illinois

* - Denotes finalized game.

Just Made It: Western Michigan Broncos

They certainly made it interesting, huh? Entering the last month of the season, Western Michigan held a 5-3 record. Just one more victory! Well, the Broncos proceeded to lose three straight games and force themselves into a must-win situation. Fortunately for WMU, a 26-18 triumph over Eastern Michigan earned the Broncos a 6-6 record and a trip to the Salute to Veterans Bowl against South Alabama.

Just Missed It: New Mexico Lobos

So much for a late surge from New Mexico, which soared onto the postseason radar with an upset of Washington State. Needing a win at Hawaii, the Lobos faltered and lost 38-30. The program's bowl-less streak has reached eight disappointing years.

LA Bowl (Dec. 18): UNLV vs. Cal
Armed Forces Bowl (Dec. 27): Tulane vs. West Virginia
Fenway Bowl (Dec. 28): Memphis vs. Virginia Tech
Military Bowl (Dec. 28): Navy vs. Boston College
Independence Bowl (Dec. 28): Army vs. Washington
First Responder (Jan. 3): UTSA vs. Vanderbilt

Just Made It: Virginia Tech Hokies

Similar to WMU, Virginia Tech owned a 5-3 mark as November began. Three straight losses also moved the Hokies to the postseason bubble, but they knocked off rival Virginia 37-17 to secure both the Commonwealth Cup and bowl eligibility at 6-6.

Just Missed It: Michigan State Spartans

Michigan State's season ended with a dud. At home against Rutgers, the Spartans collapsed in a 41-14 blowout. Jonathan Smith inherited a build, so a 5-7 record isn't surprising. Still, it stings to close the campaign with a lopsided home loss while narrowly missing a bowl.

Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 20): Florida vs. North Carolina State
Guaranteed Rate Bowl (Dec. 26): Rutgers vs. TCU
Birmingham Bowl (Dec. 27): North Carolina vs. Arkansas
Liberty Bowl (Dec. 27): Texas Tech vs. Missouri
Holiday Bowl (Dec. 27): Syracuse vs. Arizona State
Las Vegas Bowl (Dec. 27): Washington State vs. Texas A&M
Pinstripe Bowl (Dec. 28): Pitt vs. Nebraska
Pop-Tarts Bowl (Dec. 28): Georgia Tech vs. Baylor
Alamo Bowl (Dec. 28): BYU vs. Colorado

Just Made It: North Carolina State Wolfpack

North Carolina State provided a sour sendoff for Mack Brown, who just coached his final game at rival North Carolina. The victory salvaged a frustrating year for NC State, which ranked 24th in the preseason AP poll but trudged to a 6-6 record.

Just Missed It: Wisconsin Badgers

The streak is dead. Wisconsin lost to rival Minnesota, ending the program's remarkable run of 22 consecutive seasons in a bowl. Although his job is safe today—partially because his buyout is around $40 million—Luke Fickell is entering the Badgers' offseason on a warming seat.

Music City Bowl (Dec. 30): Michigan vs. Oklahoma
ReliaQuest Bowl (Dec. 31): Iowa vs. Ole Miss
Sun Bowl (Dec. 31): Duke vs. USC
Citrus Bowl (Dec. 31): Illinois vs. Alabama
Texas Bowl (Dec. 31): Kansas State vs. LSU
Gator Bowl (Jan. 2): Miami vs. South Carolina
Mayo Bowl (Jan. 3): Louisville vs. Minnesota

Just Missed It: Kansas Jayhawks

Everyone else in this section had already locked in bowl eligibility before the final week of the regular season. Kansas, on the other hand, whiffed on its opportunity at a sixth win. Baylor steamrolled the Jayhawks, racking up 603 yards in a 45-17 rout to make KU finish 5-7.

First-Round Byes

The five highest-ranked conference champions (*) will automatically earn a CFP berth, and the four highest-ranked of that group will be placed in the quarterfinals. While this quartet is assumed to be from the Power 4 (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC), that's not guaranteed.

No. 1: Oregon*, Big Ten champion in Rose Bowl
No. 2 Texas*, SEC champion in Sugar Bowl
No. 3: Boise State* MWC champion in Fiesta Bowl
No. 4: Clemson*, ACC champion in Peach Bowl

First-Round Games

No. 12 Iowa State* (Big 12 champion) at No. 5 Penn State (winner to Peach Bowl)
No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Notre Dame (winner to Fiesta Bowl)
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Georgia (winner to Sugar Bowl)
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State (winner to Rose Bowl)

Bubble Team: Alabama Crimson Tide

I don't agree with the decision. Last week, CFP selection committee chairman Warde Manuel said a version of "we value wins" no less than a handful of times. Yet, in this update, 9-3 Alabama is ahead of 10-2 Miami. The outlook, nevertheless, will shift to what Bama needs. In short: SMU must win. Otherwise, the Tide will likely drop out of the bracket.

Potential Bid-Stealer: Clemson Tigers

If Clemson wins the ACC, that victory would secure the Tigers an automatic bid. In that scenario, though, SMU should still be included. Seeing the 11-1 Mustangs drop entirely out of CFP positioning for losing a conference championship would be ridiculous, truly. And if SMU stays in front of Bama, the Tide's bubble will be popped.