Bowl Predictions 2024: Projections For Final Playoff Bracket Picture, More Top Games

The majority of the 2024 College Football Playoff field is set.

There's only one true debate going into the Saturday of conference championship weekend about which teams belong in the 12-team bracket.

All eyes will be on the ACC Championship Game and whether the SMU Mustangs can beat the Clemson Tigers.

If SMU wins, the Mustangs earn the ACC's automatic bid and the Alabama Crimson Tide will get in as the final at-large team.

However, a Clemson win would give it the automatic bid and likely force the selection committee to choose between SMU and Alabama for the last at-large position.

The SEC has been favored far more than the ACC in all of the CFB Playoff rankings, so there is an assumption that three-loss Bama could get in over two-loss SMU if it comes down to both teams.

No. 1 Oregon (Big Ten champion)

No. 2 Texas (SEC champion)

No. 3 SMU (ACC champion)

No. 4 Boise State (best Group of 5 champion)

No. 12 Arizona State vs. No. 5 Penn State

No. 11 Alabama vs. No. 6 Notre Dame

No. 10 Indiana vs. No. 7 Georgia

No. 9 Tennessee vs. No. 8 Ohio State

The ACC Championship Game matters more than any other conference title game played on Saturday.

SMU is potentially facing a multi-spot drop beneath Alabama if it loses to Clemson.

Clemson is this weekend's agent of chaos. The Tigers can't get in as an at-large team, but if they upset SMU, they will enter the field with the ACC's automatic bid.

The fear regarding SMU comes from the tumble the Miami Hurricanes took in Tuesday's rankings. Miami fell from No. 6 to No. 12 after losing to the Syracuse Orange.

The two-loss Hurricanes are behind three-loss Alabama and out of contention for at-large spot since they lost their chance to play in the ACC Championship Game.

SMU currently sits at No. 8. A four-spot drop in the rankings is common for any teams who suffer losses on a weekly basis.

Alabama has one more loss than SMU, but it played the stronger schedule and that could be the difference-maker if the committee has to choose between the Tide and Mustangs.

All four teams participating in the Big Ten and SEC Championship Games are expected to be in the 12-team field.

Where the quartet of programs are seeded, though, is the question that has to be answered on Sunday afternoon.

The Big Ten and SEC winners will receive the first two seeds in the bracket. The Oregon Ducks are the No. 1 team with a win. The Texas Longhorns will be the No. 2 seed if they win and Oregon wins, but the top seed if they win and Oregon loses.

The messy part of the seeding discussion happens if the Penn State Nittany Lions and Georgia Bulldogs both win.

Penn State is two spots ahead of Georgia in the rankings, but UGA would have two wins over Texas on its resume in that scenario, while all Penn State would have is one win over Oregon.

If Penn State and UGA lose, the question is how far both teams drop. Penn State might have a smaller drop because it enters the weekend with one fewer defeat than UGA.

The committee also has to consider if it wants conference games in the first round. That could affect the order if Penn State and UGA lose.