Week 15 NFL Odds: Early Locks and Best Bets on the Schedule

We've reached that point in the 2024 NFL season where some teams may no longer be actively trying to win. In the AFC alone, six teams have already been eliminated from playoff contention.

The 2-10 Las Vegas Raiders and 2-10 New York Giants, meanwhile, are vying for the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL draft.

Not every "bad" team, however, will be chasing draft positioning or willing to lay down over the final month. The 3-10 Carolina Panthers, for example, gave the 11-2 Philadelphia Eagles everything they could handle in Week 14.

Picking against the spread remains a challenge, though, we've identified a few teams to consider backing based on the early Week 15 lines.

*Lines via DraftKings Sportsbook

The Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts are both coming out of their bye weeks. Both teams are technically still alive in the playoff race, though Denver is the one with a real shot to reach the postseason and make some noise.

When we last saw Denver, it was battling to overcome some defensive leaks against the Cleveland Browns. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix rose to the challenge and, along with a pair of pick-sixes, helped spark a 41-32 victory.

For most of the season, though, Denver has relied on a defense that ranks third in yards per carry allowed, third in net yards per pass attempt allowed and second in points allowed. Learning to win in a different manner is good for the Broncos, and problematic for the Colts.

Indy's defense hasn't been great this season (29th in yards allowed), and second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson has been inconsistent—though better since reclaiming the starting job. The Colts have also been shaky along the offensive line because of injuries.

Expect Denver's ferocious pass rush to force Richardson into mistakes, while Nix plays a clean enough game to deliver a fairly convincing victory.

If quarterback Jordan Love can avoid turnovers, the Green Bay Packers should be able to win by a field goal on the road against the Seattle Seahawks. That's a challenge that will be easier in theory than in practice, as Seattle has become quite adept at forcing takeaways.

The Seahawks have won four straight, thanks to improved defensive play, a strong ground game and smart quarterbacking by Geno Smith. However, none of those victories have come against teams that currently have a winning record.

In fact, Seattle has beaten only one team that is currently above .500, and that was Denver at home in Nix's NFL debut. While the Seahawks defense has gelled under head coach Mike Macdonald, it has still struggled to contain the run (25th in yards per carry allowed).

Green Bay should be able to lean on Josh Jacobs and the ground game to grind out a win and limit Love's mistakes. And while the Packers quarterback has had turnover issues, Love has worked to address them.

"I think, obviously, the interceptions are something I want to clean up and definitely improve on, being able to be clean with the ball," Love said in October, per ESPN's Rob Demovsky.

Love hasn't thrown a pick in his last three games, and a mostly mistake-free performance from him should net the Packers a win.

It's extremely difficult to trust the Atlanta Falcons against any opponent at this point. Atlanta has lost four straight and has watched quarterback Kirk Cousins become a turnover machine. However, Atlanta should get back in the win column this week against the Las Vegas Raiders.

The Raiders defense has been average against the run and burned repeatedly by opposing tight ends. That should lead to big games for Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier and Kyle Pitts—assuming Cousins remembers that he's allowed to throw to his tight end.

Las Vegas will also be relying on third-string quarterback Desmond Ridder after Aidan O'Connell's Week 14 knee injury. Ridder, a former Falcons draft disappointment, wasn't even on the Raiders' roster a month ago.

While the Falcons defense hasn't been good, it has discovered a pass rush over the last two weeks. Atlanta may have to survive a few mistakes from Cousins, but it can also force Ridder into miscues.

This is likely to be a game that is decided on the ground. In such a contest, the Falcons should have an edge.

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