Week 17 NFL Picks 2024: Early Odds to Exploit after Final Week 16 Results

We're about to enter the NFL's penultimate week. The playoff field is beginning to materialize, and nearly half of the league has been officially eliminated. In other words, some teams will have a lot more to play for than others in Week 17.

Yet, fans shouldn't expect to see teams simply surrender. Pride can be a powerful motivator, as the Dallas Cowboys showed on Sunday night.

Eliminated earlier in the day, Dallas still found the motivation to spoil things for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Even with a mere two weeks remaining in the 2024 season, the NFL landscape remains unpredictable. However, fans can still find a few intriguing lines early in the week.

*Lines via DraftKings Sportsbook

The New England Patriots came close to upsetting the Buffalo Bills in Week 16. Rookie quarterback Drake Maye had another impressive outing, while New England's defense did enough to fluster star signal-caller Josh Allen.

However, divisional games are often closer than they probably should be, and the Patriots are likely to have a tougher time against Jim Harbaugh's Los Angeles Chargers.

The Chargers are battling for a playoff spot and can secure their 10th win of the season against New England. While L.A.'s defense has slipped a bit since beginning the year as one of the league's best, it's still a physical and productive unit.

And while the Chargers offense hasn't been great without J.K. Dobbins in the lineup, it has a too-tier quarterback in Justin Herbert.

Herbert, Ladd McConkey and the Chargers passing attack should find success against a Patriots defense ranked 28th in net yards per pass attempt allowed. L.A.'s defense should do enough to corral Maye to deliver a touchdown victory on the road.

Tampa Bay's Week 16 loss was huge because it leaves the Bucs in need of help to reach the postseason. They're now tied with the Atlanta Falcons atop the NFC South, and the Falcons own the head-to-head tiebreaker.

However, Tampa is still focused on finishing the season strong and, hopefully, still stealing the division.

"We've got to focus on ourselves like we've been doing and we've got to correct our mistakes and we've got to go out and win Sunday and we've got to win the next week and we'll what happens after that," head coach Todd Bowles said, per Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times.

The Bucs may do enough to win on Sunday, but it's hard to envision them blowing out the scrappy Carolina Panthers. Carolina has consistently hung with playoff-caliber teams like the Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa.

The Buccaneers needed an overtime field goal to beat the Panthers in this year's first meeting.

Quarterback Bryce Young has improved significantly in his second season, and he can take advantage of a suspect Buccaneers secondary. The rematch may not go to overtime, but Carolina can keep it close once again.

The Buccaneers need to win out and get at least one Falcons loss to take the NFC South. They may see part of that equation unfold in Week 17.

The Falcons did get a bit of a boost from rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. in Week 16. He was far from perfect, but he added a bit more juice to the offense than Atlanta was getting from Kirk Cousins.

However, Penix's first career start came against the lowly New York Giants. The rookie will have a tougher time against the Commanders and defensive mastermind Dan Quinn.

The Falcons are also likely to struggle against Jayden Daniels and a potent Washington offense. The Commanders just dropped 36 points on a very good Philadelphia Eagles defense—though, they may still have lost if Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts hadn't exited with a concussion.

Atlanta's defense has been average at best this season. While the Falcons may look to play ball control with Bijan Robinson and their rushing attack, that plan didn't work for Saquon Barkley and the Eagles.

Expect the Commanders to win big at home.

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