Week 17 NFL Picks: Early Odds to Exploit for Best Over/Under Box Score Bets

Happy holidays, football fans. It's Christmas Week in the NFL, which means fans are getting another dose of early action.

Fans will be treated to a pair of playoff-caliber matchups on Wednesday before diving into this year's Thursday Night Football finale—though that matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears may feel anticlimactic after Wednesday's stellar slate.

A trio of Saturday games will spread out the schedule even further.

This means that fans looking for early player props should have more options than they typically would. Most player props won't be available until later in the week, of course, but we've found a few enticing options based on the early Week 17 odds.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Wednesday's first game will be a thrilling matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs.

We like the over for Russell Wilson's passing prop at -115 (bet $115 to win $100). There are a few reasons for this, but it starts with the likely return of No. 1 receiver George Pickens. He's missed time with a hamstring injury but could change how Pittsburgh is able to attack Kansas City's vaunted defense.

"It might slow down their pressure game a little bit or alter the nature of the contour of their pressure game," head coach Mike Tomlin told reporters. "But that's always the case when you have players like him."

Even if Pickens doesn't repeatedly gouge the Chiefs defense, he should give Wilson more opportunities to push the ball downfield. Wilson should also see a high-volume workload, as a run-heavy approach isn't the best way to attack Kansas City.

The Chiefs rank fourth in yards per carry allowed (4.0) and third in rushing yards allowed this season.

Wednesday's second game will be a 2023 playoff rematch between the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans.

We're in on the passing yards over/under for Lamar Jackson. Jackson is -115 (bet $115 to win $100) to hit the under, and there's a good chance he does. Baltimore will likely look to lean on Derrick Henry and the ground game. That should help keep C.J. Stroud and the Texans off of the field and help protect Jackson from a dangerous pass rush.

While the Texans have been solid against the run (11th in yards per carry allowed), they've been even better against the pass. Houston ranks second in net yards per pass attempt allowed and sixth in passing yards allowed.

Jackson only threw for 207 yards in last week's win over the Steelers, and he threw for just 152 yards the last time he faced the Texans. Expect another conservative passing day, even though Jackson may find the end zone multiple times.

Thursday's game will be a pivotal one for Seattle. The Seahawks are still alive in the playoff hunt, but they need to win out and get help to reach the postseason. They cannot afford a slip against Chicago.

The Bears are looking to play spoiler, but they probably won't spoil things for Seahawks receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Top cornerback Jaylon Johnson may draw perimeter receiver DK Metcalf in coverage, which should help open things up for Smith-Njigba.

The Bears, as a team, rank 31st in net yards per pass attempt allowed and 23rd in passing yards allowed.

Seattle is also likely to force the ball in Smith-Njigba's direction early and often. He's been targeted 12 times in each of the past two games and has consistently racked up yardage, even when he's had a smaller target share.

Smith-Njigba has topped 73 receiving yards in seven straight games. He should do it again on Thursday night.

The Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots will open Saturday's slate, and one prop we like involves Patriots quarterback Drake Maye.

The rookie is -110 to hit the over on this rushing prop, and he should. It's a high line for a quarterback, but Maye is a capable dual-threat who simply hasn't been unleashed as a scrambler often this season.

Head coach Jerod Mayo faced criticism for not using Maye's legs enough in Week 15. New England responded by allowing Maye to run six times for 30 yards against the Buffalo Bills last week.

Expect scrambling to be part of Maye's game plan this week too. The Chargers have a terrific overall defense but have been susceptible to the run (27th in yards per carry allowed). New England isn't exactly loaded with offensive playmakers, so it should augment its attack with Maye's rushing ability when the opportunity arises.

Denver Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix, it's worth noting, ran three times for 25 yards against the Chargers last week.

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