Fiesta Bowl 2024: Odds, Box Score Prediction for Penn State vs. Boise State

The College Football Playoff quarterfinals kick off on New Years' Eve with the Fiesta Bowl.

The sixth-seeded Penn State Nittany Lions are an overwhelming favorite to take down the third-seeded Boise State Broncos.

Boise State is the higher seed because of the byes handed out to the four highest-ranked conference champions, but Penn State finished the regular season five spots ahead of the Broncos in the CFB playoff rankings.

James Franklin's side showed how dominant it can be in the playoff format with a 38-10 first-round win over the SMU Mustangs.

Penn State boasts a strong defense that will be tested by Ashton Jeanty. The key to winning may be as simple as slowing down the Heisman Trophy runner-up.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread: Penn State (-11)

Over/Under: 53

Money Line: Penn State (-455; bet $455 to win $100); Boise State (+350; bet $100 to win $350)

Penn State held SMU to 253 total yards and 10 points in the first round.

The Nittany Lions defense produced a pair of pick-sixes and forced three interceptions from SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings.

Penn State should lean on its defense again in the Fiesta Bowl, and the key to success may be as simple as slowing down Jeanty.

The No. 6 seed swarmed the backfield against SMU, and it should do the same to put Boise State in some uncomfortable long-yardage situations on second and third downs.

Offensively, Penn State can match the Broncos' success on the ground. Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen combined for 160 rushing yards against SMU.

Penn State can draw out all of its offensive series behind Singleton and Allen, which in turn will limit the number of possessions Jeanty can affect the game with.

Drew Allar holds a clear advantage in the quarterback matchup, and if the Nittany Lions need to rely on the aerial attack, they can trust the junior to pick out tight end Tyler Warren and others.

Allar wasn't asked to do much against SMU, but he does have 3,021 passing yards and 21 passing touchdowns.

A solid showing out of the signal-caller with a complementary rushing attack in place should be enough for Penn State to counter whatever Boise throws at it.

Boise State will rely on Ashton Jeanty to do a majority of the heavy lifting on offense.

The 21-year-old has gone over 100 rushing yards in every game this season and scored a touchdown in all but one contest.

The Heisman Trophy runner-up should receive 25-30 carries, and what he does with them will determine whether Boise makes the semifinals.

The matchup with Penn State is a tough one, though, as the Nittany Lions only give up 100.4 rushing yards per game.

Boise State's offensive staff needs to scheme up a way to put Penn State under duress on the ground so that Maddux Madsen doesn't have to win the game on his own through the air.

The 21-year-old has 22 touchdowns and only three interceptions this season, but he's only completed 62 percent of his passes and was regularly under 200 passing yards this season.

Madsen could surprise some people and match Allar throw-for-throw, but that is the worst-case scenario for the Broncos.

Penn State 34, Boise State 20

Penn State's defense does not have to outright stop Jeanty.

The Nittany Lions just need to slow down the running back's progress on a handful of drives, which is something their top-10 rushing defense is more than capable of doing.

Boise State's defense gives up over 80 more yards per game than Penn State's unit, and that will make the Broncos vulnerable against the Big Ten offense.

Penn State has two difference-makers on the ground and two more through the air with Allar and Warren.

The Nittany Lions have multiple ways to beat an opponent, while Boise's offense could be stuck in neutral if Jeanty is slowed down.

Gambling problem? Call (877-8-HOPENY) or text HOPENY (467369).

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visiting ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), visiting OPGR.org (OR), or calling/texting TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).

Odds and lines subject to change. 21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.